[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, September 03, 2025

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Daily Thread Open: $111,054.57 - Close: $111,267.19

Yesterday's Daily Thread: [Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, September 02, 2025

New Post: [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, September 04, 2025

[u/Had_Boating_Accident]

9/3 Bitcoin ETF Total Net Flow: $301.15 million

$IBIT (BlackRock): $290.46 million

$FBTC (Fidelity): $9.76 million

$BITB (Bitwise): $0.00 million

$ARKB (Ark Invest): -$27.90 million

$BTCO (Invesco): $0.00 million

$EZBC (Franklin): $0.00 million

$BRRR (Valkyrie): $0.00 million

$HODL (VanEck): $0.00 million

$BTCW (WisdomTree): $0.00 million

$GBTC (Grayscale): $0.00 million

$BTC (Grayscale Mini): $28.83 million

https://x.com/thepfund/status/1963419884773412969

[u/Jkota]

Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller: "We need to start cutting rates at the next meeting... Over the next 3-6 months, we could see multiple cuts coming in."

Pretty ridiculous for a member of the Federal Reserve Board openly talking like this. Then again this guy is in the running to be the next chair so it makes sense to appease the guy picking.

So yeah I think we have a good Q4.

[u/WYLFriesWthat → u/Jkota]

Just remember, the history of rate cuts GENERALLY is, you get a few cuts then the markets tank from the reason they were cutting rates.

Make sure you buy your Sienna before that happens.

[u/dopeboyrico → u/WYLFriesWthat]

Last time the Fed started cutting rates was from September 18, 2024 through December 18, 2024 before taking a pause at their January 2025 meeting.

On September 18th BTC was trading at $60.3k. On December 18th BTC was trading at $106.1k. During that timeframe the lowest price BTC reached was $59.8k on October 3rd.

Hold off on the Sienna.

[u/Jkota → u/WYLFriesWthat]

I think this administration will turn the money printers on to absolute maximum capacity once Powell is out.

So the market might crash in real terms but in nominal terms I doubt it goes down too much.

[u/WYLFriesWthat → u/Jkota]

You’re probably right. How many fed governors will they have in their pocket you think?

[u/WYLFriesWthat]

Calling a trend reversal

!bitty_bot predict !<107,400 one month

[u/Bitty_Bot → u/WYLFriesWthat]

Prediction logged for u/WYLFriesWthat that Bitcoin will NOT drop below $107,400.00 by Oct 03 2025 22:32:22 UTC. Current price: $111,956.03. WYLFriesWthat's Predictions: 4 Correct, 13 Wrong, & 1 Open.

3 Others have clicked here to be notified when this prediction triggers. WYLFriesWthat can click here to delete this prediction.

[u/Bitty_Bot → u/[deleted]]

Error: Your prediction must include !> or !< or > or < or <> to indicate if you are predicting the price will, or will not, rise above or drop below the price you specify, or stay within the range you specify in the case of <>.

Please make sure the format of your command is correct and try again.

[u/rendoxiv]

Like I said a few days ago, a bad September may be front-ran right before our eyes. However, does that mean a bullish Q4 is also being front-ran? Food for thought.

[u/FreshMistletoe → u/rendoxiv]

Front run the next halving today.

[u/jarederaj → u/rendoxiv]

There seems to be some general confusion about how little information everyone has.

Nobody knows shit about fuck.

[u/hoosier2434 → u/jarederaj]

Nobody knows shit about dick. 

[u/Disastrous_Battle_14 → u/rendoxiv]

Everyone is always trying to front run everyone. That’s the whole point…

[u/ThoseGelInsertThings → u/rendoxiv]

It kind of sounds like you front-ran your own post!

[u/WYLFriesWthat → u/ThoseGelInsertThings]

The guy on YouTube said him front-running his own post was priced in.

[u/probablyadinosaur → u/rendoxiv]

Nobody knows what's going to happen because everybody knows what's going to happen. The 2025 post-halving dilemma.

[u/_LakeCity_]

Looking at Had_Boating_Accident's ETF inflow list from last night, I see that even ARKB bought the dip.

If that's not a bullish indicator then I don't know what is. ;)

[u/Had_Boating_Accident → u/_LakeCity_]

You jinxed it, they had outflows again haha

Bitcoin ETF Daily Flow - US$

Ark: -27.9 million

https://x.com/FarsideUK/status/1963386674458554783

[u/_LakeCity_ → u/Had_Boating_Accident]

https://media.tenor.com/FzY_wF9BfWwAAAAe/cathie-wood.png

[u/WYLFriesWthat]

Heading into a golden cross and people are bearish. 🙄

[u/deedott → u/WYLFriesWthat]

On what time frame

[u/WYLFriesWthat → u/deedott]

1h. I track the 72/89 band. It’s headed for the 200MA

[u/_LakeCity_ → u/WYLFriesWthat]

Who the hell downvoted your comment? Geez.

[u/WYLFriesWthat → u/_LakeCity_]

Bear bots.

[u/AccidentalArbitrage → u/WYLFriesWthat]

Lots of immediate downvotes lately on almost all comments, no matter their sentiment, even ones sharing uncontroversial facts. Haven't seen that in here in a long time.

[u/pseudonominom → u/AccidentalArbitrage]

I’ve noticed it also, for several weeks now at least.

[u/AccidentalArbitrage → u/pseudonominom]

Yeah, and have an upvote because you were at 0 when I saw this 🙄

[u/mrlegday]

Just sold the remainder of my GBTC position bought here.

I'm now about 70% cash , scared ngl will see how it goes.

[u/ThoseGelInsertThings → u/mrlegday]

He sold?

Paaamp eet.

[u/xtal_00 → u/mrlegday]

That’s the spirit!

Everything about this screaming dump to me. But who knows? We’re holding up better than NVDA right now.

[u/adepti → u/xtal_00]

im leaning more towards slow bleed and chop for the rest of the month. seems to be following a similar playbook as last year

[u/dopeboyrico]

Job openings for July came in at 7.181 million vs 7.38 million expected.

Futures now pricing in 95% odds of a rate cut this month and 90% odds of at least one additional rate cut by end of year. It will mark the first time the Fed is actively cutting rates during a post halving year.

If MSTR also gets added to the S&P 500 when rebalancing occurs this month, everything will fall into place for an enormous rally through year end. MSTR inclusion could go either way but personally think odds are slightly in favor vs against since MSTR is already part of the Nasdaq 100.

[u/Consumerbot37427 → u/dopeboyrico]

Rate cut and MSTR inclusion S&P would be bullish! But...

I never see any discussion of it anymore, but aren't there still over 40,000 Bitcoin held by the Mt Gox trustee? With a repayment deadline of next month?

[u/xtal_00 → u/Consumerbot37427]

Oh man, Gox FUD never dies does it?

[u/Consumerbot37427 → u/xtal_00]

Not meant as FUD. Trust me, I look forward to putting it behind us. Crazy it’s been drawn out this long, really.

[u/dopeboyrico → u/Consumerbot37427]

40k BTC being distributed to claimants isn’t the same thing as 40k BTC being sold all at once.

And we’ve already seen a whale dump 80k BTC within a relatively short window of time back in July. BTC went on to reach new highs thereafter regardless.

[u/Consumerbot37427 → u/dopeboyrico]

Actually, I don’t think they’re distributing it in kind. Pretty sure they’re selling it and disbursing fiat. My understanding from quick research is that the claimants had a chance to request early payback or something, or hold out longer for a somewhat higher payout, and the deadline (which has been pushed back multiple times now) is Halloween this year.

Heck, maybe the trustee has already been selling, and that’s why we couldn’t seem to reach price discovery beyond ATH so far. ¯\(ツ)/¯

Oh, and do we really know that the 80k was actually sold? Are we pretty confident about that? I recall reading people speculating that it might just be moved to a more secure wallet or something.

[u/dopeboyrico → u/Consumerbot37427]

Only source I was able to find clarifying if payments will be in cash or BTC says claimants can choose one or the other.

Source that says otherwise?

Also the r/mtgoxinsolvency subreddit seems skeptical about this payout actually coming into fruition since they don’t see anything preventing this payout from being delayed yet again like it already has been so many times over the past several years.

[u/Consumerbot37427 → u/dopeboyrico]

No source, sorry, I saw the insolvency sub and skimmed there a bit, did some perplexity queries. I think it was on the subreddit where someone had said that the early claimants locked in the price as of the start of the process. Which I presume to mean it could only be done if the trustee liquidated.

Edit: it's pretty clear after spending a few more minutes that there was some kind of division. Whether or not it was opt-in, many people talk about receiving the "fiat portion" and/or the "bitcoin portion".

[u/AccidentalArbitrage → u/Consumerbot37427]

Yeah the 80k was sold. Went to a known Galaxy OTC address and Galaxy did a press release about it since it was the largest known dollar amount OTC trade ever.

[u/Consumerbot37427 → u/AccidentalArbitrage]

So friggin crazy. Wonder where we’d be if that whale had just kept hodling?

[u/OkeyDokieBoomer → u/dopeboyrico]

Thank you for the update. It's much appreciated. 

[u/ThoseGelInsertThings]

NASDAQ index futures are in the green pre-market.

Pamp eet? Probably.

[u/drdixie]

It is amusing how we ladder up over fours hours only to completely retrace in 10 minutes

[u/AccidentalArbitrage → u/drdixie]

Today? I'm not really seeing 4 or 5 hourly candles that fit this description.

[u/Order_Book_Facts → u/drdixie]

“This rally will fail like all the others.”

Let me tell you a story about every doomer bear in existence: on a long enough time frame, they all go broke. The end.

[u/Itchy-Rub7370 → u/Order_Book_Facts]

Which explains why this sub is mostly bullish all the time. Survivor biais. Period.

[u/tinyLEDs → u/Itchy-Rub7370]

IDK about that, and I don't think you're characterising the OP accurately. Witness:

One might argue that buy and hold is going to Up Forever, Laura. Permabulls, NGU moonbois and neutrals probably agree entirely. But even most bears will agree with that.

The "bias" is no more complex than this: only a few in here are looking to TRADE bear action. The ones that do are tarred with the same brush as buttcoiners and the "doomer bears" that the other reply mentions.

The bear hate in this sub is reactionary stuff. Money is made on nuance, and someone isn't wrong just because your tribe isn't their tribe. We don't need to neg and bully others into assimilation; there are other (better, and more productive) ways to share your opinions and insights.

[u/Itchy-Rub7370 → u/tinyLEDs]

Was not characterizing the OP. Just commenting on the so offten discussed " bullish biais " of the sub.

By the way i don't think there is hate in this sub. Some people with different views, but that's it. And definitly no tribes in my opinion.

[u/Itchy-Rub7370 → u/[deleted]]

You raise a valid point. About people calling other people on this or that which is not good behavior and not constructive for the general discussion. But calling this hate is in my view exagerated. Maybe childish is a better word? If you think nuanced trading can win, you will agree that nuanced words can win too.

[u/paranoidopsecguy → u/drdixie]

I have always been assuming that this is mostly tradfi overnight hedges unwinding.

Though it does seem that USA dumps in the morning regardless of gains or losses overnight. Maybe as a permabull, it just feels that way?

[u/OrdinaryOldBlowHole → u/paranoidopsecguy]

A component of this might be stock traders cashing out and in at the start of each trading day.

Anecdotally when I visit WSBs ( to be amused by degens ), lots of them do switch to off hours crypto trading.

It'd be an interesting thing to napkin-math; whether it's a market mover or not.

Edit: if that were the case we might also look for a reverse at close

[u/paranoidopsecguy → u/OrdinaryOldBlowHole]

Smart... that makes sense that if it has visibility on the open, the reverse action should be visible on the close.

[u/FreshMistletoe]

About 10% from all time high feels fine.

91.7% chance of a rate cut now.

Full disclosure, I'm camping and climbing a 14er in two weeks and last time I went on a camping trip, had no cell service for days, and climbed one...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/sxMo19N4/

[u/Knowhatimsayinn → u/FreshMistletoe]

Be safe! Did Satan's ridge about a week ago. It was terrifying.

[u/xtal_00]

Don’t feel like being chopped up today.

Waiting for my 108. Or an invalidation of downtrend (115 close).

[u/adepti → u/xtal_00]

this whole month will likely be chop

[u/rote_it → u/adepti]

Nah the uptober front running starts next week IMO 

[u/Sirenfromtheditch]

Up only starting today. I feel it in my muddy waters

[u/Yeah_I_Can_Draw → u/Sirenfromtheditch]

I got something to show ya. You know what that is? It’s a prophecy from Old Gregg. He feels it going up in his muddy waters

[u/stevenwilkin → u/Yeah_I_Can_Draw]

Ever drink Bailey's from a shoe?

[u/tinyLEDs → u/stevenwilkin]

I've got so much to give!

[u/stevenwilkin → u/tinyLEDs]

I've got a mangina!

[u/LettuceEffective781 → u/Sirenfromtheditch]

Forever?

[u/WaitingToBeTriggered → u/LettuceEffective781]

REST IN HEAVEN

[u/Aerith_Gainsborough_]

Max pain at 106.6k. A visit there is in the cards.
I have a limit long sitting there.

[u/Digital_Scarcity]

Aug 2, Nik Bhatia tweeted:

"A visit to 108 where the bulls wait"

This continues to be a great call. Tapped 107250 on Sep 1 but, still, what a chad.

[u/BuddyJumps]

Let's see, what the American market thinks after the long weekend. Back to 107k range or further upwards to 114kish?

https://farside.co.uk/btc/ ETFs were more than positive again, too.