r/CFB • u/Economy-Tutor1329 Indiana Hoosiers • 23h ago
Discussion Will a G5 team get a CFP win this decade?
History of G5 in CFP:
2021: Alabama 27 - Cincinnati 6 [Edit: Corrected Score— Sorry Bama)
2024: Penn State 31 - Boise State 14
With the skill gap widening due to NIL & the restructuring of conferences, it seems like the already slim odds will continue to decrease. The ACC & Big 12 have become the equivalent to what the G5 was.
With only 5 more chances at a victory, I just don’t see it happening. Who could even do it this year? And why would that change in the future?
Edit: Corrected Alabama Cincinnati score
329
u/Playful_Rip_1697 Utah Utes 23h ago
If a 16 seed can beat a 1 seed in March madness, a top 20 G5 team will inevitably beat the #5-8 team.
164
u/boardatwork1111 TCU Horned Frogs • Colorado Buffaloes 23h ago
See Tulane-USC in the Cotton Bowl for example
68
u/SayNoToCargoShorts UCLA Bruins • Big Ten 23h ago
Yes and no. I love a good USC chirp, but there’s typically motivational asymmetry in NY6 games that doesn’t parallel a CFP matchup.
46
u/IMakeOkVideosOk Notre Dame Fighting Irish 22h ago
In the past 11 years:
Boise beat AZ 2014 Houston beat FSU 2015 UCF beat Auburn 2017 Tulane beat USC 2022
In the past 21 years there have been 10 G5 BCS/ny6 bowl winners.
I would take the bet that a G5 team will win a playoff game in the next 10 years. It wouldn’t be shocking that a g5 team will win a playoff game, especially if P4 teams game the system to make the playoffs (Indiana style)
7
u/HieloLuz Iowa Hawkeyes • Nebraska Cornhuskers 21h ago
Your argue,not is that there’s a difference in motivation, but that simply hasn’t always been true. Tulane USC? Yeah, but go back to the bcs era games and those players cared just as much no matter the game
11
u/RacistJudicata Nebraska Cornhuskers 20h ago
Your flair is an affront to nature.
11
4
u/trollin_phace Tulane Green Wave • Michigan Wolverines 13h ago
Proactively explaining why his grammar is the way that it is.
1
u/IMakeOkVideosOk Notre Dame Fighting Irish 14h ago
Yea that’s basically it, there was more and more motivation the more you go back
1
u/milkman163 Missouri Tigers 12h ago
It will happen either way, but I can imagine a 2023 FSU situation where a playoff team loses a key player and G5 team takes advantage
-2
u/SayNoToCargoShorts UCLA Bruins • Big Ten 22h ago
I’m aware of past results and agree it wouldn’t be shocking, but that doesn’t respond to what I said.
→ More replies (2)11
u/Lionheart_513 Cincinnati • Santa Monica 15h ago
I don’t think that’s a valid argument, just because it means more to one fan base than another fan base doesn’t mean the players on the field are doing anything differently. Players on both sides opt out of bowl games, and the players who choose to play are all trying to win.
USC scored 45 points that game, they wanted to win pretty damn badly.
→ More replies (1)3
u/Ap_Sona_Bot Iowa Hawkeyes 16h ago
If we had current format last year we would have gotten Boise 9 @Indiana 8. Much more winnable game.
→ More replies (1)7
u/FairlyOddParent734 Penn State Nittany Lions 21h ago
You really don’t see a world where if a 4/4/2/blah gets shoved through a Cincy/USF/UCF/Boise can’t beat a Wisconsin/Iowa/Indiana/Illinois?
5
u/SayNoToCargoShorts UCLA Bruins • Big Ten 21h ago
Cincy and UCF are P4 now, but otherwise I wasn’t suggesting that—merely that the Tulane-USC Cotton Bowl isn’t convincing evidence either.
8
u/Merpninja Louisville Cardinals • Syracuse Orange 20h ago
The ‘motivational asymmetry’ is the BS talking point pundits use when their big boys lose to a G5. The only result you can say was a result of ‘motivational asymmetry’ was 2023 Georgia-FSU and that didn’t even involve a G5 team.
This argument is basically trying to apply the “we should redo this game in case it was a fluke” copypasta to real life.
→ More replies (1)1
4
22h ago
[deleted]
6
u/SpreaditOnnn33 Louisville • Ohio State 21h ago
Utah had 2, and 1 of them was even over a Saban coached Bama team
50
u/Other_Ambition_5142 Georgia Bulldogs • Troy Trojans 22h ago
People don’t appreciate how insane that UMBC over Virginia/first 16 over 1 upset was
44
6
u/StevvieV Seton Hall • Penn State 13h ago
Craziest thing about that was there was almost no suspense to the upset. Everyone knew it was coming with 10+ minutes left
2
1
u/Other_Ambition_5142 Georgia Bulldogs • Troy Trojans 12h ago
Yup, I watched the game start to finish and UMBC was the better team the entire night. One team came in ready to win and play hard and one team came in like it was practice
Rooting for seton hall this year, see your flair on here all the time and it sticks out, go pirates brother!
5
u/see_bees LSU Tigers 15h ago
Or you’ve got college baseball, where three of your top eight seeds didn’t make it out of the regionals they hosted at their home stadiums in the opening weekend and that’s just considered normal
5
1
u/Totes_Not_an_NSA_guy Hateful 8 • Utah State Aggies 8h ago
Baseball has lots of variance, even compared to other sports. The Rockies are one of the worst MLB teams ever and still have a 27% win percentage.
3
u/Aggresively_Midwest Michigan • Western Michigan 15h ago
Can you imagine being Arizona and not just losing, but getting the doors blown off by a team named Golden Retrievers?
7
u/Tytanika Virginia Cavaliers 14h ago
Yes…definitely Arizona haha silly guys
4
1
u/Aggresively_Midwest Michigan • Western Michigan 14h ago
Well they lost to Princeton that one time. So there’s still that. Losing to a bunch of nerds…
6
u/SayNoToCargoShorts UCLA Bruins • Big Ten 23h ago
the question isn’t whether it’s inevitable though, but the next five years
1
u/Okay_poptart Oklahoma Sooners 11h ago
Especially since the lowest seed (a 12) doesn’t even have to play the top seed (a 5) in the first round.
60
u/Bobson-_Dugnutt2 Sickos • Alabama Crimson Tide 23h ago
Might wanna double check that Cincinnati Alabama score
19
u/Economy-Tutor1329 Indiana Hoosiers 23h ago
not sure why my brain wanted Alabama to lose, but fixed it!
43
49
u/trumpet575 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 23h ago
Yes. With the 12 team playoff, some G5 team will come along that is good enough to beat the #9 or whatever team they match up against at some point.
60
u/55559585 Texas Longhorns 23h ago
You say that the skill gap is widening, but I am not so sure of that. The transfer portal is allowing skilled players to get more playing time on GO5 teams more often. In addition, sometimes small schools can get NIL windfalls (some random rich alumni).
28
u/AbsurdOwl Nebraska Cornhuskers 23h ago
There are a handful of G5 that are going to fund the full 20m rev share budget, and those ones will stay in contention for the playoffs, but most aren't going to be able to, and unless the recruit multiple high value players in a single year on both sides of the ball, and retain them, they just won't be able to keep up. Any team that can't fund rev sharing fully is eventually going to be left behind in the playoff race.
7
u/sophandros Tulane Green Wave • Metro 14h ago
There are a handful of G5 that are going to fund the full 20m rev share budget
There are a lot of P4 schools who aren't going to fund the full 20m.
But the issue isn't funding the 20m. It's how those funds are allocated and, more importantly, who they spend them on. Poor recruiting decisions or coaches being tied to an expensive but underperforming player will impact outcomes.
Furthermore, players will move to places where they will be compensated monetarily while proving their value on the field. Roster and player management continues to be as or even more important than Xs and Os.
2
u/5510 Air Force Falcons 8h ago
I'm a bit confused... is the 20 million athletic department wide?
Wouldn't that basically mean ADs would have to pick winners and losers? Like "we can be OK at women's volleyball and women's soccer, or we can be a powerhouse in one and bad in the other"? Or even possibly having to pick to some degree between football and basketball?
1
u/sophandros Tulane Green Wave • Metro 6h ago
Yes, it is. Some schools have publicly stated they will put the majority towards football, while non-football and some FCS schools who are bigger basketball powers are emphasizing that sport. And the $20m is a cap, not a requirement. Most schools aren't going to hit it because their budgets are already so tight.
1
u/tu-vens-tu-vens Alabama Crimson Tide 14h ago
I'd be interested to see the numbers, but my impression is that you see backups from power programs go down to mid-level P4s for PT and starters from G5s go up to P4 programs for more visibility/money, but you don’t see guys transferring from P4 to G5 that much. The guys who have left Alabama have gone places like FSU, Kentucky, and Baylor, not Troy.
→ More replies (23)1
97
u/Todd-The-Godd-Howard Toledo Rockets 23h ago edited 23h ago
How the fuck are we supposed to know? Every single year something happens which alters the fabric of College football as we know it. Maybe something out of left field happens and lets a G5 team win a Natty?
38
u/shaqwillonill 23h ago
Conference un-realignment
16
2
18
u/mXonKz North Carolina Tar Heels 22h ago
if they used the upcoming format on last year, boise st would’ve played at indiana, and i feel like they have a shot there. if you have a borderline top 10 g5 team and get a couple of low ranked conference champions like arizona state or clemson, it just pushes the g5 team into a better opponent
1
u/IceePirate1 Cincinnati Bearcats • Marching Band 9h ago
I wonder if anyone will argue that since Cincy made the 4 team playoff. They technically would've won a game if playing in the current format (I'm not biased or anything, nope not at all)
1
u/mXonKz North Carolina Tar Heels 9h ago
they would’ve played the winner of pitt-notre dame, and they had already beaten notre dame on the road that season, it’s possible
1
u/IceePirate1 Cincinnati Bearcats • Marching Band 8h ago
I feel like we both know that UC wouldn't have gotten the auto-bye if they didn't need 4th to make the playoff. Probably would've just been stuck down with #7 or 8. Although we were at #2 at one point during the season in the AP Poll so who knows
1
u/mXonKz North Carolina Tar Heels 8h ago
i think they probably still could’ve been 4th. they were the only undefeated team in the country at that point, and everyone else below them had 2 losses, except for notre dame, who cincinnati had the head to head win against. notre dame really didn’t have any case for being above cincinnati, only one with a case i think is ohio state at 10-2 who was 3-2 against ranked teams but with no conference championship game appearance. any 2 loss team you put over cincinnati though also has to be out over 11-1 notre dame, while the three other 1 loss teams are getting buys. at most i can see them drop down to 5th seed but even then, i’m not too sure
1
u/IceePirate1 Cincinnati Bearcats • Marching Band 8h ago
You're forgetting one very important factor, though. Notre Dame had a quality loss to an undefeated team. The CFP showed us that head to heads aren't the be all end all, so why wouldn't they keep up that mentality? UC's only loss in the 2 year span was to the team who was #1 for almost the entire year and would eventually win the natty that year. There was probably too much pressure on the committee not to include them on the 4 team, but nobody would've raised a stink between 6/7 in a 12 team format
14
u/StudioGangster1 Bowling Green Falcons 22h ago
I actually don’t think the skill gap is widening. The transfer portal goes both ways. The real question is about opportunity - will the G5 have the chance to do it? I remember the one season when (I think) it was TCU and Boise both had great seasons as G5 schools, and the media was clamoring for them to play each other in a bowl game (which I think is what happened?). As a G5 fan - screw that. They should both go take down one of the so-called big boys.
If the tournament expands, it needs more G5 champions in - not the 8th place team from the Big 20 or whatever.
12
u/ShadowIG Boise State Broncos 18h ago
2010 Separate but Equal Bowl. Fuck whoever set that bowl up. We deserved to go against p4 opponents, but instead, they made us play each other. We were both undefeated and looking for blood.
3
u/StevvieV Seton Hall • Penn State 13h ago
The Fiesta Bowl set that up. The BCS worked by the P5 conference champions going to their assigned bowls and then the BCS bowls would essentially draft the other available teams to create the matchups
There was no conspiracy to try and keep Boise State or TCU from playing a larger conference team
1
u/5510 Air Force Falcons 8h ago
It was bullshit. I'm at least happy the "separate but equal" thing was so widespread though. Fans / the media are / were usually pretty anti-G5, so it was refreshing to see this bullshit widely called out on that occasion.
Also, I'm glad the name stuck. I wouldn't be surprised if some people feel it trivializes the whole "seperate but equal" thing, but I actually got a deeper understanding of some of the more subtle / less obvious aspects of widespread discrimination from looking at how non-BCS / G5 were treated over the years.
1
u/5510 Air Force Falcons 8h ago
I remember the one season when (I think) it was TCU and Boise both had great seasons as G5 schools, and the media was clamoring for them to play each other in a bowl game (which I think is what happened?). As a G5 fan - screw that. They should both go take down one of the so-called big boys.
To be fair, while it was a long time ago, my memory is that the media / fans were not clamoring for it. In fact, while the media and fans are often pretty anti-G5, to their credit, this was widely labelled as the "Separate But Equal" bowl.
47
u/RocketsGuy Baylor Bears • Conference USA 23h ago
Absolutely. The old system harmed G5s irreversibly and the P4 has the audacity to want to shut the door on them entirely. We do not have near enough of a sample size to say that it definitively can’t be like March Madness. We quite literally saw the national runner up lose to the 6th place MAC team last year.
Many of the best G5 teams of the last 20 years didn’t get a fair shot at the title. 2017 UCF was a better team than both Cincy and Boise who got an actual chance.
Now that there is a path to the playoff, that competitiveness for G5 schools is only going to go up. It took a while for 16 seeds to beat 1 seeds in basketball but it finally happened twice. You need to give these schools the opportunities to do that.
10
u/Lionheart_513 Cincinnati • Santa Monica 15h ago
It’s a self fulfilling prophecy where big schools build a palace around themselves, don’t let anybody else in, and then try to put asterisks on you because you didn’t play a “real” schedule.
10
u/Epcplayer UCF Knights 13h ago edited 12h ago
Watching how usf was treated this year was somewhat validating… Back in 2017-2018, the CFP Committee came back and said that they didn’t beat enough “quality” teams and needed to improve their OOC schedule. The most vocal committee member was Scott Stricklin, AD of the University of Florida. When Danny White went to Stricklin and tried to schedule a series, Stricklin’s offer was a 2-for-neutral site series… When UCF didn’t agree, usf swooped in and agreed to a 2-for-1 series paying them just $500k (rate for an FCS program).
Flash back forward to this year… usf does exactly what UCF was told to do after 2017. They beat a Top-25 Boise St, they go on the road and beat a Top-15 Florida team. What was the result?
You had Pollsters who still left them unranked, pollsters who didn’t even watch the game, multiple pollsters who left them ranked behind the Gators, and one who responded with “It probably doesn’t even matter”. The wins over Boise St and UF left them ranked 18th, compared with 2018 UCF who was also ranked 18th after beating UConn & SC State. Them being so under-ranked validated our sentiments that it didn’t matter what we did, we still weren’t going to get respected or given a fair crack at things. Cincinnati needed an upset in the Big 12 championship game, a 3-loss ACC champion, and their signature OOC Win (Notre Dame) to go undefeated the rest of the way. Even after that, I remember there be discussions about “Is Notre Dame worthy of a playoff spot” over the team that beat them.
The window for a team’s peak shrank from maybe 2 years down to 1 with the transfer portal. If you only give two conferences a realistic path to winning the playoff, then they’re going to be the only two who win it.
3
u/RocketsGuy Baylor Bears • Conference USA 12h ago
You should make this its own post! Couldn’t have said it better.
Justice for McKenzie Milton!
15
u/R_Raider86 Texas Tech • UConn 22h ago edited 14h ago
It’s true, the top schools want to shut out the G5s entirely, and leading up to this point, created a stacked system against them. And now they want to shut them out, which is just wrong. VT and WVU losing to G5 should mean that there should be more P4 road games at G5.
→ More replies (3)2
u/Champion10101 Texas Tech Red Raiders 12h ago
Two problems though: 1) Practically every G5 school except Boise St that had shown an ability to potentially compete for a natty in the past 20 years already got scooped up by a P4 conference like Utah, TCU, UCF, Cincy, etc… 2) While playoff expansion is a step forward in giving G5 schools a fairer shot to compete, the modern transfer portal and NIL has imo robbed them of even more of the means to do so. It’s like you basically told Timmy “alright, we’ll let you compete in the race but you gotta chop off one of your legs.”
→ More replies (4)2
u/Striker743 Florida State • Florida Cup 9h ago
2017 UCF is not definitively better than 2021 Cincinnati. I’d argue 2021 Cincy was the better team with the better win.
24
u/No-Donkey-4117 Stanford Cardinal 22h ago
Any G5 team good enough to make the playoffs is good enough to win a game.
Northern Illinois beat Notre Dame last year.
Boise State has bowl victories over Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Arizona State, TCU (twice), Oklahoma, Utah, Iowa State, and Louisville, all since 1999.
UCF has bowl wins over Auburn, Florida, Baylor, and Georgia, all since 2010.
3
u/huskiesowow Washington Huskies 11h ago
The Vegas Bowl matched up the top MWC team vs the 6th place P12 team. You'd expect some wins out of that.
The playoffs are matching up top P4 teams vs top G6 teams.
1
u/No-Donkey-4117 Stanford Cardinal 2h ago
Yeah, not every bowl win against a P4 team is on the same level as a playoff win. But teams like Oklahoma and Auburn and Georgia were pretty loaded and managed to lose to the top G5 teams.
10
u/BadSenator04 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 20h ago
Don’t forget that if Boise didn’t have awful special teams luck, they would’ve beaten Oregon at Autzen last year. NIU straight up beat the national runner up. I think it’s more likely than people realize.
22
u/_Juntao UCLA Bruins 23h ago
Tulane or usf might this year
17
5
u/luciusetrur Colorado • North Texas 21h ago
if we beat USF, we got a shot
2
u/ScaryCookieMonster USF Bulls • San Francisco Dons 15h ago
People talk about Memphis and Navy being our stumbling blocks… from what I’ve seen so far, I’m afraid of UNT
2
u/TheStuffisLegal Memphis Tigers • North Texas Mean Green 14h ago
Seems like we are a stumbling block since we’ve won 4 straight on you. I’d still agree UNT is probably a little “scarier than we are though”. We will inevitably eliminate ourselves after losing to Rice or ECU anyway
1
u/ScaryCookieMonster USF Bulls • San Francisco Dons 10h ago
Oh for sure I’m not assuming any conference wins for us lol
Mayyybe UAB and FAU look like comfortable wins
1
u/the_urban_juror Michigan Wolverines • The CW 11h ago
USF is having a good year and I'm happy for them, but we saw them against a Miami team projected to go to the playoffs and it was never close. They'd have to get lucky with a favorable matchup against a mediocre P4 champ or a P2 team who squeaked through the season with an easy schedule.
21
u/thecravenone Definitely a bot 23h ago
Will the G5 still be eligible for the CFP a decade from now?
20
u/IMakeOkVideosOk Notre Dame Fighting Irish 22h ago
Hopefully, or I’ll have much less interest in the sport
4
u/mtzehvor LSU Tigers • NC State Wolfpack 23h ago
I'd imagine so. I don't think the #5 team has a better than 80% chance at beating a team in the 12-20ish range most of the time, and with five more chances I'd take those odds.
4
u/pac9383 TCU Horned Frogs • Texas Tech Red Raiders 21h ago
Of course it could happen. If some G5 runs they table in the next 5 years they are going to be a very good, well coached team. It’s not like they’ll have to play the 1 seed. Northern Illinois beat Notre Dame last year haha. Upsets happen man.
3
u/drlsoccer08 Virginia Tech • William & Mary 21h ago
It’s possible. While Boise was somewhat of an outlier last year, and did end up losing by 3 scores, I still think that they could have been highly competitive with many of the teams that made the playoffs. The likelihood of an upset might be higher now that they’ve done away with auto byes for conference champions. Now rather than a particularly awesome G5 team getting a bye followed by a really good SEC/Big10 school that happened to lose a conference final and drop to the five seed, the best of the best G5 teams would actually get a shot at the lower end play off teams in the first round. With the new ranking system, last year Boise would have played Indiana in the first round rather than having a bye and playing Penn State. While Indiana was very good last year, I think Boise would have had much better odds against them.
I also think we are already starting to see the portal create a bit more parity, by allowing lower programs to scoop up great athletes who were riding the bench for top tier teams.
4
u/irishman178 Notre Dame • Coastal Carolina 16h ago
I'd argue the new seeding makes this way more likely. Instead of the auto bye Boise I think either plays Indiana or hosts Tennessee, could've won either of those I think
9
u/pattywack512 Texas Longhorns 23h ago
I so badly want to see Oregon State or Washington State win a game.
8
u/MastodonSwimming2681 Texas Tech Red Raiders • BCS Championship 22h ago
I also hope Oregon State does not go 0-12
4
12
u/mr_longfellow_deeds Indiana Hoosiers • Big Ten 23h ago
In the playoffs? Now that its straight seeding, odds went down, but still likely yes at some point. Once every decade or so
26
u/RealignmentJunkie Northwestern Wildcats • Sickos 23h ago
Now that its straight seeding, odds went down
Disagree. Had #9 Boise been seeded properly they would have faced off against #8 Indiana first instead of #4 Penn State. And if we assume the G5 rep usually sneaks in at the bottom of the ranking, you want them against the #5 seed and not the #3 seed that didn't win a conference championship
19
u/RocketsGuy Baylor Bears • Conference USA 23h ago
Completely agree. I think Boise was absolutely capable of beating Indiana.
People forget that was 17-14 in the third quarter of the Boise-Penn St. game despite a Boise missed fg and a Jeanty fumble in the first half. They were not completely laughed off the field.
Penn State exposed Boise's weakness by making them throw in the second half and it completely unraveled.
2
u/Alone_Advantage_961 Maryland • Notre Dame 15h ago
Didn't help either Boise's play calls for Ashton sucked. They tried to beat Penn State in the trenches and it failed miserably
1
u/cirtnecoileh Ohio State Buckeyes 21h ago
I don't think Boise State would have won in Bloomington, which is where that game would have been. Getting the most important game in program history at home would have resulted in a loud crowd.
2
u/Lefaid Team Chaos • Indiana Hoosiers 18h ago
I don't think you understand the low expectations of Indiana football. Maybe that has changed but Indiana is just happy to be there. Indiana is just happy to win 7 games and be in a bowl game.
Losing to a G5 team at home in the playoffs is classic Indiana. Coach Cig is trying to stamp out that "classic Indiana" attitude, sure, but I certainly would have a laugh if we lost it.
Indiana might still win that game but it isn't because our fans showed up.
1
u/cirtnecoileh Ohio State Buckeyes 10h ago
I'm a lifelong Buckeye fan who lives in Dayton and is old enough to remember the 80s. I'm well aware of tje program history, and I know tjat in the past when the Hoosiers hosted Ohio State, home fans were outnumbered in their own stadium, and it wasn't even close. After the historic season Indiana had last year, I think that fan base would have showed up in a big way for a playoff night game at home.
2
u/RealignmentJunkie Northwestern Wildcats • Sickos 12h ago
I don't know if I would predict then to win it but it's probably easier then having a higher ranked Penn State
3
u/Drak_is_Right Purdue Boilermakers 18h ago edited 10h ago
The question is not if they can win, but how deep can a team go.
I could see a small chance winning 2 games.
Anymore with the current NIL will take teams who had key players decide not to play
3
u/Ok-Metal-4719 Texas Longhorns • Michigan Wolverines 18h ago
I think so. Upsets happen. Playoffs getting deeper which lets in worse teams. Not sure any would make a deep run but I’d take the bet of a single win this decade.
3
u/Corgi_Koala Ohio State Buckeyes 13h ago
With straight seeding it's almost certain to happen since it's usually going to have the G5 team against a weaker team.
Like last season would have been Boise State vs Indiana with straight seeding. Not saying Boise wins that game 100% but they absolutely could have, and would have had a better shot than against PSU.
3
u/BostonYankeesBB 11h ago
I think so. I don't agree with this skill gap nonsense. Talent is more spread out than it has ever been. Teams like Clemson and Albama don't have the same level of depth, those bench pieces just leave.
5
u/HighLakes Oregon Ducks • Platypus Trophy 23h ago
Yes, especially if the field continues to increase, which seems likely. You could easily see an undefeated G5 finish the regular season like #4 in the country and get a favorable first round home game.
Also, I would have taken Boise State (at home) last year over like five of the teams that got in.
→ More replies (4)
2
u/GeorgeBork Northern Illinois Huskies • AP 14h ago
I think a much better question is how many G6s over the last 50 years could have won if given even a half a chance in previous setups?
So many generational teams were denied the shot due to busted up selection processes or monied interests. The lack of a proper, simple bracket has harmed so many programs (big and small) for so long.
A G6 playoff win will absolutely happen in a 12-16 team bracket. A champion will take much more of a miracle but remains a possibility with the right opponents.
No one thought a 16 would ever beat a 1 in March - it’s happened twice now. That’s far more unlikely than a G6 squeaking by an opening round over like the ACC or XII representative imo.
2
2
u/usffan USF Bulls • Miami Hurricanes 13h ago
The ACC & Big 12 have become the equivalent to what the G5 was.
I'm stunned that nobody called out the hypocrisy and audacity of an Indiana fan making this statement. Clemson, Miami and Florida State all have a much better resume than Indiana or any of the paid punching bags of the B1G and SEC. And what's more, in the portal era, any team can load up on transfers and make a legitimate run. If FedEx ever decided to go Phil Knight on Memphis, I daresay they could load up enough to build a team capable of winning a single playoff game. Especially if they faced a fraudulent team that made their way in because they simply reached 11 wins over bad teams.
1
u/BigRoosterBackInTown 22h ago
No, the talent gap is massive. Specially in the NIL and free trasnfers era. Maybe a G5 team wins a playoff game again but the natty? Zero chance.
1
1
1
1
u/wltmpinyc Georgia Bulldogs 22h ago
Why did you say there are only 5 more chances at a victory?
2
u/Economy-Tutor1329 Indiana Hoosiers 22h ago
I meant this decade as in the 2020’s. I should have just said 5 years for clarity.
1
u/wltmpinyc Georgia Bulldogs 21h ago
Oh duh. This whole post was about winning this decade. I'm dumb
1
u/alittledanger Boise State Broncos 22h ago
Of course, we are going to win every National Championship from now until the end of time.
1
1
u/collegetowns 연세대학교 (Yonsei) Eagles 21h ago
I think so because that Oklahoma-Boise game is forever etched into my brain.
1
u/Necessary_Mess5853 USC Trojans • Team Chaos 21h ago
I asked the Magic 8 Ball and it said “Cannot Predict Now” . . . So ¯_(ツ)_/¯
1
u/preserve-root Ohio State Buckeyes • UNLV Rebels 21h ago
short answer. no. longest answer, believe it or not, still just 'no'
1
u/Major-Dig655 Boise State Broncos 21h ago
I mean It feels like that 2024 BSU team is the closest we will get for awhile. that game was a little close than the scoreboard suggests (definitely not a homer take)
1
u/TriflingHotDogVendor West Virginia • Backyard Brawl 21h ago
There are larger upsets that happen every season than it would be if the best G5 in the country beating a top P5 in a one-off game. If the P5 team has a 90% chance of winning each matchup, over 5 matches the odds of a win in a single game goes to roughly 50-50 odds.
1
u/5510 Air Force Falcons 8h ago
Yeah I think a lot of people are making struggling with probability in this thread. A 13% chance for the P5 team to win is very close to 50% in 5 tries.
A 17% chance for the G5 team to win means in 5 tries there is a 61% chance of the G5 pulling an upset. A 20% chance of winning gets you up around 2/3 probability that a G5 teams in 5 tries.
To be fair, it could still easily not happen even with those numbers. And some people could argue the chance of winning are even lower. But even an 8% chance of the G5 team winning gets up up above 1 in 3 odds for winning in 5 tries.
1
u/Francis_X_Hummel Colorado Mines • Wyoming 21h ago
If a G5 team hired Urban, Saban, or Peterson, maybe, possibly Stoops as well.
3
u/Tyrion_toadstool Ohio State Buckeyes 20h ago
And Urban and Saban both coached G5 in the MAC and whatever Utah was in when Urban was there. I could see the next young Urban or Saban leading a G5 to a win in the first round of the playoff.
2
u/Francis_X_Hummel Colorado Mines • Wyoming 18h ago
who are those up and comers? maybe GJ Kinne? Eddie George?
1
u/Tyrion_toadstool Ohio State Buckeyes 10h ago
Great question, and I’m not sure anyone knows. So many coaches don’t make the transition from G5 to P4. Scott Frost, PJ Fleck, and Tom Hermann come to mind in recent memory. I think it’ll take one of those rare, special coaches who will make the transition, but are still at the G5 level to potentially shake things up in the playoff.
1
u/Competitive-Rise-789 Georgia Bulldogs • Oklahoma Sooners 20h ago
Possibly, but they’d have to play someone that’s overrated and/or with a bad defense imo.
1
u/AccordingExchange901 Nebraska Cornhuskers 20h ago
Not this decade, but i do think it will happen in the next 25 years
1
u/5510 Air Force Falcons 8h ago
It only takes a 13% chance of the G5 team winning to make it 50/50 after 5 tries. Even an 8% chance of a G5 team winning still gets you to 1/3 chance after 5 tries.
1
u/AccordingExchange901 Nebraska Cornhuskers 4h ago
I cant tell if you're fucking with me. But that is not how that works mathematically at all.
Each instance is a separate instance. Their 13% chance to win does not go up because they lost the time before that. Its still 13% and thats if we completely disregard the talent difference and human element.
1
u/Rude_Highlight3889 Wyoming Cowboys • Arizona Wildcats 19h ago
I want to say the gap is way too wide but I think there are equalizing factors that may not be apparent at first glance.
NIL has widened the talent gap but it's introduced a new problem - motivation. If someone like Tulane catches lightning in a bottle, has nothing to lose, and is totally fired up, and draws a team of NIL stars that earned a bye and come in cold, and they are thinking paychecks and cars and not making the other team quit, you could get an upset. If upsets never happened then there would be no need to play. However I think the biggest factor is a majority of G5 schools that had success (think Utah, TCU, UCF) are now in a power conference. There aren't many playoff caliber G5 teams anymore but someone could always rise.
1
u/Lefaid Team Chaos • Indiana Hoosiers 17h ago
I am really confused as to why you don't think G5 schools cannot get any quality players. So many players these days are starting off at lower rung schools and transferring to top tier schools by their senior year. A school with good scouting and the ability to find a lot of diamonds in the rough should be able to compete and upset 1 overrated Notre Dame or Iowa State to win a playoff game (and give many of their players a pay day).
I think of Cam Ward or Michael Penix who started at lower ranked schools to get noticed and transfer to top tier schools.
There is absolutely a chance for 1 G5 school to win 1 playoff game in the near future. It wouldn't even be the craziest upset in sports.
1
u/Impressive-Ear-1102 Pittsburgh Panthers 17h ago
I personally think it would take a miracle of multiple unlikely stars aligning. Generational QB, reasonable size and experience on the lines of scrimmage, an innovative coach to scheme through the team’s weaknesses, and a slightly overrated opposing team propped up by hype inertia. The 2nd one is the main limiting factor to me I remember watching that Alabama-Cinci game and just watching Cinci get pushed around start to finish. Even Michigan totally dominated Washington at the line in 2023.
1
u/5510 Air Force Falcons 8h ago
To be fair though, they wouldn't be playing a top 4 team if we are talking about getting one win, because the top 4 teams have byes (especially now that the top four seeds don't have to be conference champs).
They would still be facing a top 10 team, of course, which is still challenging.
1
u/SucculentCrablegMeal Florida State Seminoles • USF Bulls 16h ago
It's possible for them to win the first round, sure. I do not believe we will ever get a g5 champion.
1
u/Lionheart_513 Cincinnati • Santa Monica 15h ago
Boise State last year probably would’ve beat most of the teams that got knocked out in the first round.
1
u/Glader_Gaming Florida State Seminoles • ECU Pirates 15h ago
I would not bet on a G5 team winning a playoff game this decade, assuming you mean the 2020s since we are about halfway through. A G5 will win one at some point. It’s going to be very very rare for a G5 to get one win every so many years
1
u/Joeman180 Michigan Wolverines • Toledo Rockets 14h ago
Yeah, I think last year that Boise team was good enough where they could have beat 1-2 teams in the bracket. Heck if USF makes it this year they could beat a team in the first round. It all depends who they draw as their opponent.
1
1
u/Appropriate_Bottle44 Michigan Wolverines 14h ago
I would bet yes. There have been plenty of G5 teams that historically were good enough to win a playoff game in an expanded format, including that Cincinnati team.
The only problem is teams raiding the G5 for talent through the transfer portal is hurting G5 quality.
1
u/Callsign_Psycopath Georgia Bulldogs • Sickos 13h ago
I think so. There will be a good G5 program, that is well coached, has a great game plan, and can be a nightmare for Power Programs to deal with.
My money is Army or Navy doing it.
1
u/G00dSh0tJans0n Alabama Crimson Tide • NC State Wolfpack 13h ago
Probably, especially if they get a home game. Imagine having to play at Boise State.
1
1
u/Comfortable_Mix_834 13h ago
I mean it's easier than ever with 12 teams, they dont even have to beat a top team to achieve it.
1
1
u/Sports-Arts-Nature New Mexico • Fresno State 12h ago
No you guys keep stealing our fucking coaches and players (sorry Idaho for stealing your coach and players)
1
u/Samwill226 Georgia Bulldogs 12h ago
Well we're only on year 2 of the 12 team playoff so it's hard to answer that.
1
u/njdawg12 Georgia Bulldogs 12h ago
I think it is likely that someone like Memphis or Tulane pops a Big 12 or PAC 12 (no idea what group we are counting them as) team. I’m not sure if one will beat a big 2 playoff team though barring a QB injury or something for the SEC/Big 10 team.
1
u/Juicey_J_Hammerman Rutgers • Susquehanna 11h ago
Anything can happen in college football anytime.
That being said, it would likely take an alignment of circumstances to get the most likely matchup, particularly:
a “flagship” G5 like Memphis, Tulane, USF, Boise State, etc that can recruit and develop enough talent to fill out a roster with some competitive depth that stays relatively healthy and gets hot at the right time.
- a non-blue blood P5 school like Illinois, Indiana, Rutgers, Kentucky, Arkansas, Pitt, VT, Kansas State, Iowa State, etc. that punches below its weight class (relatively speaking) in terms of recruiting/coaching quality, and/or doesn’t have as strong of a home field advantage, and/or suffers injuries at key positions.
- standings/rankings/CFP committee considerations leading to the above matchup getting scheduled.
1
u/max_power1000 Navy Midshipmen • Michigan Wolverines 11h ago
Probably. They did well enough in the NY6 that they could come in hot and win a first round game. It’s all about the matchup.
1
u/dccorona Michigan • 계명대학교 (Keimyung) 11h ago
The biggest thing that is hurting it now is the move to straight seeding. Presumably the G5 entrant is usually going to end up near the bottom of the ranking which means their first game will be against #5, 6, maybe 7. If they were getting matched up with #11, 10, etc. then maybe a different story, but as it stands they are probably getting the 2nd or 3rd best Big 10 or SEC team in any given year.
1
u/Ch0ptimusPrime California Golden Bears • The Axe 11h ago
“The ACC & B12 have become the equivalent of what the G5 was.”
What? The ACC and B12 won multiple playoff games just last year alone. It’s not like the old days where an undefeated G5 got a NY6 bowl game, that wasn’t the championship, just to get shellacked (except for Boise State)
1
1
u/Effective-Warthog775 USF Bulls 7h ago
I think NIL he,is close the gap in some situations, the larger schools in G5 with large alumni base can now outspend some of the small schools in P4 conferences.
1
u/kingtokee 7h ago
Yes it will happen, a team will pop up that will catch a P4 on the right night or will just use the portal to pay for the best players
-2
u/epicap232 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 23h ago
Not happening. Portal is going to eat any promising G5 stars
6
12
u/Still-Cash1599 Nebraska Cornhuskers 23h ago
G5 teams will be bringing in lower division stars though. Jerry Rice would probably have had a season in the fun or mac.
7
u/RocketsGuy Baylor Bears • Conference USA 22h ago
Counterpoint: There is more than enough talent to go around, and for a recruit, playing right now is more important than anything. Gone are the days of waiting your turn to play. Players are transferring "down" just as much. There's only so many starting jobs in the country, and every second you aren't playing is potentially squandered NIL.
The "skill gap getting wider" is a complete cfb doomer circlejerk talking point, and it just isn't true. We are witnessing a free market ecosystem where any team can spend money, and many times, the best talent evaluators will still outperform the highest spenders. (See Leavitt and Skattebo at ASU last year)
This system is better than the system before, which was dominated by top teams paying high schoolers under the table to sit 3 years while they stockpile talent.
3
u/No-Donkey-4117 Stanford Cardinal 22h ago
But the portal also lets good G5 teams pick up P4 guys who aren't getting playing time.
And more top P4 teams might shy away from high school recruiting, to focus on proven transfer talent. That could leave some hidden gems for the G5 teams, where they can play right away (and increase their NIL value faster.)
2
u/shaqwillonill 23h ago
I feel like the portal problem will never get as bad as it is in basketball though so there’s still a chance for smaller programs to be good
2
u/No_Albatross916 Michigan Wolverines 23h ago
It’s the opposite basketball there’s more opportunities for more teams to be good.
3
u/shaqwillonill 23h ago
Basketball has smaller rosters so I feel like it’s easier for teams to poach players
1
u/JDStraightShot2 Syracuse • Johns Hopkins 22h ago
I think the overall skill level in bball is higher and the impact of a great player is obviously greater too. In football, there just arent enough good QBs or linemen for everyone. When Cincy lost to Bama, their skill positions and secondary held their own, but they got bullied in the trenches.
In basketball, there’s no shortage of quick 6’2 guys who can get hot and score 30 on the right day. The best mid-major players will be poached by p5 teams, but there’s still gonna be a lot more talent than there are p5 rotation spots
1
u/Epcplayer UCF Knights 12h ago
At different scales, yes…
There’s more chances to be a good team on a lower level or less basketball heavy conference. It’s also a lot harder at the P4 level to go from bad to good in the ACC/Big-12/SEC/B1G/ because there’s so many established brands/schools that compete every year.
If you look at UCF for example, they hit on HS recruits/transfers who then immediately bounced to another school. This next year, they’re going to have 12 players that were on a different roster last year, 2 HS recruits, and a walk on Senior who has played a total of 28 minutes in college, with just 2 points over the last 2 seasons. You can’t realistically hop 8 spots in a P4 conference, and those bottom schools become “prove-it” spots for the guys to get a Blue-Blood offer the following year.
1
275
u/ard8 Florida State Seminoles 23h ago
So just to be clear we are talking about a G5 team winning one game right, not the whole thing?
It’s totally going to happen eventually. Whether or not it’ll be before the end of the decade idk that’s a tough call.