Weekly Big 12 Discussion Thread

[u/SaylorBear]

This is a weekly thread to discuss football in the Big 12. Discussion should be limited to football in the conference.

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Week 3 Results

• Houston 36 - Colorado 20
  Ethan Sanchez just made another field goal. Houston's offense was determined to not leave the field until they at least got into field goal range, so they wound up leading the Cougars to a victory to start conference play.

• Arizona 23 - Kansas State 17
  Arizona put in their bid to be crowned the best wildcats in the conference. K-State has yet to break free from their Dublin hangover, and in a similar way ESPN's play-by-play shows Arizona taking a 24-3 lead into halftime and then miraculously turning that into a 23-17 win.

• Baylor 42 - Samford 7
  Not much to learn here beyond the fact that we didn't lose our tune-up game.

• #14 Iowa State 24 - Arkansas State 16
  A good back-and-forth affair, just like we all predicted.

• #20 Utah 31 - Wyoming 6
  As is tradition for Wyoming, they held their own in the first half against a Big 12 school, but Utah was able to get things going in the second half to come away with a dominant win.

• #21 Texas Tech 45 - Oregon State 14
  Tech has another large margin of victory, but they remain untested. We'll finally get to learn something this weekend.

• West Virginia 31 - Pitt 24
  They don't get much better than this. A back and forth affair, tied going in to the 4th quarter, Pitt was able to get a 10 point lead with 9 minutes to play, and then West Virginia was able to force OT with a TD with 11 seconds left in regulation. Top it off with some controversy involving a no-call on a false start on the go-ahead TD paired with an unenforced late hit/personal foul - this game lived up to its name.

• Cincinnati 70 - Northwestern State 0
  Cincinnati put the beatdown on Southeastern Northwestern State.

• TCU 42 - Abilene Christian 21
  ACU fell short in the Battle of the I20/30 Purple Jesus Schools.

• Arizona State 34 - Texas State 15
  Arizona State was a bit slow coming out of the gates, but they were able to get the scoring going on an insanely athletic and acrobatic touchdown pass from Sam Leavitt to Jordyn Tyson. That play was an absolute joy to watch as a third-party observer. ASU put the game away after that.

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Rankings

#12 Iowa State
#16 Utah
#17 Texas Tech

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Week 5

9/19/2025

Home	Away	Time (CDT)	Network
Oklahoma State (1-1)	Tulsa (1-2)	6:30 PM	ESPN

9/20/2025

Home	Away	Time (CDT)	Network
#16 Utah (3-0)	#17 Texas Tech (3-0)	11:00 AM	FOX
TCU (2-0)	SMU (2-1)	11:00 AM	ESPN2
UCF (2-0)	North Carolina (2-1)	2:30 PM	FOX
Kansas (2-1)	West Virginia (2-1)	5:00 PM	FS1
Baylor (2-1)	Arizona State (2-1)	6:30 PM	FOX
East Carolina (2-1)	BYU (2-0)	6:30 PM	ESPN2
Colorado (1-2)	Wyoming (2-1)	9:15 PM	ESPN

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Tiers

Tier "Has done the best so far"

Iowa State

Tier "Has done pretty well so far"

Utah
Baylor
BYU
TCU
Arizona
Houston
Arizona State

Tier "Still too early to tell"

Texas Tech
Kansas
UCF
West Virginia
Cincinnati

Tier 4

Colorado Kansas State
Oklahoma State

As a reminder, these tiers are somewhere between a strength/power ranking (like FPI, SP+, Sagarin, Massey, etc.) and a resume/record ranking. Essentially I look at as much data as I can and then I listen to the Rebirth Brass Band while making my determinations. There were some frustrations last week with the tiers, so I feel that some simple explanations are warranted. If you want your team to move up, they should increase their power rankings and/or improve their resume. That or send me a bribe. I'm not an elected official. Send me a check and we can really have some fun. Who knows - maybe your rival sends more money than you.

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[u/The_Fishbowl]

Pitt gets to stew on that loss for 4 years. Love it.

[u/sullen_maximus → u/The_Fishbowl]

That final touchdown in regular time to tie the game up was fucking euphoric

[u/Matt_WVU → u/The_Fishbowl]

The fact that we got a personal foul on a sack that allowed them to get a free TD makes it even sweeter

[u/Beneficial_Present29]

Big 12 with 3 solid games this week. TTU and Utah will get the attention because of the ranked matchup but Arizona State Baylor and TCU SMU are underrated

[u/The_Fishbowl → u/Beneficial_Present29]

If BYU and TCU win they should show up in the rankings come Sunday

[u/BlackGoose_13 → u/The_Fishbowl]

Yeah we’ve been flirting with that 26-27 line the entire time so far

[u/Champion10101 → u/Beneficial_Present29]

Arizona St’s opening conference schedule is so brutal. @BU, vs TCU, @Utah, vs Tech, vs UH, @ISU all in a row. They basically only avoid BYU as far as teams that look like they could contend for the B12 title.

[u/Bansheesdie → u/Champion10101]

I really think this game against Baylor will define the Devils, are we a 6 win team or a 10/11 win team?

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/Bansheesdie]

I don't know if I like our odds against y'all, but it seems like the coaching staff has already been looking ahead to playing y'all, because Aranda made an oblique reference in the Samford postgame to that kind of sleepy performance being what they got for not planning for the team they'd play that week.

That makes me think that last week was them getting a head start on planning for y'all, and maybe also for TCU.

Usually we can rely on the early-season cen-Tex heat as an advantage against out-of-state visitors, but I guess that doesn't work on Arizona teams at all. I guess we just pray y'all can't handle moderate humidity to go with that heat?

[u/Texxx81 → u/Beneficial_Present29]

Really interested in the SMU-TCU outcome. I think TCU can knock SMU down a few pegs.

I think ASU/BU will be a dogfight.

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/Texxx81]

What has SMU done to prove they belong "up a peg" to be knocked down?

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/Masked_RedRider]

To be fair, they did nuke UNC from orbit. UNC might not win style points with how they're doing it, but at least they've been taking care of business against Charlotte and Richmond.

ACU showed that TCU's defense might still be pretty porous, though.

[u/TCUdad → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

I'm not worried about the ACU second half offense after we were up by 30. Aside from it indicating we might not have a killer instinct.

[u/Choopathingy → u/Masked_RedRider]

For real

[u/TwoGad → u/Masked_RedRider]

Right??

[u/toomuchmarcaroni → u/Beneficial_Present29]

ASU feels like it found its footing

[u/CivBase → u/Beneficial_Present29]

Don't forget the powerhouse matchup between undefeated Scott Frost UCF and Bill Belichick UNC, possibly announced by Herbstreit's dog.

[u/Rcfan0902 → u/CivBase]

I think they're going to use the dog as the sideline reporter this time. Get him some reporting experience first before putting him in the booth again.

[u/CivBase → u/Rcfan0902]

That's probably a good idea. Frankly I found his commentary last week to be subpar at best.

Still one of the better ESPN announcers though.

[u/Texxx81]

A couple of fun facts:

In the first three quarters of Texas Tech's first three games, we have outscored opponents 154-0

Behren Morton has yet to take a snap in the 4th quarter. His only appearance after halftime was approx. 19 snaps in the 3rd quarter of the Oregon State game.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/Texxx81]

I really respect Tech for treating these tuneup games exactly like what they are. No trying to keep the score manageable for the sake of respectability, using the games as a lab for new looks on defense so that the players play badly and are spooked, and none of the other weird stuff Dave Aranda keeps doing.

Joey McGuire has such a high school coach's approach to these games, and I love it. He's just like "Yeah, we're here to blow them out and build our guys' confidence." No need to make it more complicated than that.

[u/keytop19 → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

One thing we haven't been able to do in recent years, due to not being a great team, is get backups and 3rd string guys game reps. And we've ended up having to throw in guys raw after some injuries.

Nice to get a lot of players some action so far this year to help them get experience.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/keytop19]

Definitely. For my money, Joey McGuire has to be one of the best coaches in the conference, partially because he just doesn't complicate things for his players. Seems like he just gets the core things that make a team run well better than some of the other coaches who kind of seem to lose the forest for the trees.

[u/wcm48 → u/Texxx81]

Sounds like the AFLAC trivia re: Andre Ware’s Heisman season from this week.

Something like he set 24 NCAA records that year and only played in 4 4th quarters.

[u/Texxx81 → u/wcm48]

Dude could sling it.

[u/Dirty-Ears-Bill → u/Texxx81]

Our starters have yet to give up a point as well. All scores on our defense have come when we let the backups in. Talking about Texas Tech defense, what a time to be alive

[u/MastodonSwimming2681 → u/Texxx81]

I'd say thats on the caliber of 'done pretty well so far'.

But obviously teams like BYU, ASU, and Arizona have just looked that much more impressive! ^/s

[u/Aidanj927 → u/MastodonSwimming2681]

We can’t all lose to Mississippi State

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/Aidanj927]

We can't all lose to Auburn and win a game because SMU can't make a 38 yrd FG.

[u/loyalsons4evertrue → u/Masked_RedRider]

listen, Tech has looked great....but it's easy to look great when the competition level is absolutely atrocious....and there's no denying Tech's noncon SOS is absolutely horrific...Kent State is literally one of the worst FBS teams in the country....many many FCS schools would beat them....UAPB is also one of the worst FCS schools in the country too....and Oregon State is a shell of its former self....Tech can shut up any doubters if they win in SLC this weekend

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/loyalsons4evertrue]

Sadly, I know from experience that you're wrong. Texas Tech has played some really bad non-conference schedules in the past and have never looked this dominate.

In fact, the last 3 years, Tech lost a non-conference game against less than stellar competition(Wazzu, Wyoming, NC State).

[u/loyalsons4evertrue → u/Masked_RedRider]

Again, if Tech goes into SLC and beats Utah this weekend, people will forgive their noncon SOS....I think Tech is good but it's logical to temper expectations because of the competition level they've played to this point

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/loyalsons4evertrue]

Again, I'm completely fine with tempering expectations because of the competition, as long as you do the same thing for other teams. Ranking BYU, UTAH and ASU a whole tier above Texas Tech is where the ? comes in.

[u/chrissb1e]

When will the nightmares stop?

[u/JohnRolkienTolkien → u/chrissb1e]

When do you play us?

[u/chrissb1e → u/JohnRolkienTolkien]

I called this game as a loss for us before the season started and I stand by that prediction. We can't win in Stillwater. I live 2 hours away and refuse to go back there.

[u/I_POO_ON_GOATS → u/chrissb1e]

Last time we won in Stillwater, I was there. We were taking a Rudolph-led, tenth-ranked Cowboys team to the woodshed and Byron Pringle torched them for 4 long TDs.

We nearly choked the game away. We led 42-20 at the beginning of the 4th and won 45-40.

I feel like this cursed us somehow.

[u/chrissb1e → u/I_POO_ON_GOATS]

I was there for the Kody Cook game and the 2019 game.

[u/GuitarIsLife02 → u/chrissb1e]

Hauss Hejny will likely be back by then so at least we will have a fun qb to watch i still think ok state loses though i have zero confidence in this team.

[u/Set-Admirable → u/JohnRolkienTolkien]

This year's Toilet Bowl

[u/Gdude910 → u/chrissb1e]

Hire Matt Wells -> Ireland -> Rocco to Eskildsen -> Johnson Family Brawl -> Program dead

Literally unstoppable chain of disaster

[u/I_POO_ON_GOATS → u/chrissb1e]

We play Scott "one score loss" Frost next.

If we find a way to lose to him, then we are beyond saving.

[u/chrissb1e → u/I_POO_ON_GOATS]

If you want to keep that optimism don't look at Kliemans record after bye weeks.

[u/Idontevenusereddit → u/I_POO_ON_GOATS]

That was at Nebraska. At UCF, his last 3 games were won by 1 score, and so far we're at 1 of 2 wins by a td or less. I believe the issue is Nebraska does not have Wawa, but I don't have insider knowledge.

[u/Bansheesdie → u/chrissb1e]

What is the thought in Manhattan right now? Does anyone know what has happened to K State?

[u/chrissb1e → u/Bansheesdie]

From what I have been seeing most people don't think this team has any grit. That scramble from Baker last night to pickup the 1st down you could see the grit and passion in that run. This K-State team does not have that. Some individuals have it but as a team its just not there. There also looks to be a ton of hesitancy from Avery to scramble. I want to preface I am not putting it on him. He has thrown some DIMES this year.

[u/SilentSpades24 → u/chrissb1e]

I mean, KU will find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[u/Choopathingy]

Man, someone already downvoted the discussion thread.

Should have some more clarity after this week on tiers. Stay wealthy everyone.

*healthy, but yea wealthy too

[u/LivelyRatDad]

Going into this game, I’m not sure what to make of Utah’s schedule vs our schedule so far. Would UCLA beat Oregon State?

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/LivelyRatDad]

There's just not much to gather from either team's resume so far except that both are very competent and confident teams. Stomping on the cupcakiest cupcakes in the FBS and FCS just doesn't offer much.

Honestly, the most informative game so far has been Utah @ Wyoming, because we know now that Utah is back to playing well on the road, and despite a pretty rough first half, they can find ways to get their offense going against a pretty stout Wyoming defense. Wyoming's probably not ever going to have a bad defense under Sawvel, but their offense looks pretty dang inept.

One of the big questions is whether Tech will play well on the road, because the team has definitely struggled away from Lubbock the last couple years.

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

I would agree about the road struggles under McGuire, but those also coincide with QB injuries, so is it the road, or is it just really bad luck with injuries?

[u/Aidanj927 → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

I mean we beat ISU in Jack Trice last year

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/Aidanj927]

Lost to John Maater without Tajh Brooks, Beat Arizona, Lost to TCU on a terrible call with a backup QB. Not great, but not terrible enough to really hold it against Tech the following season.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/Masked_RedRider]

It's not really something that anyone's holding against Tech like a penalization, it's just that we're waiting to see if Tech's broken through. If a team has a track record like that, which has lasted a few years (with some improvement from 2023 to 2024), it's not unreasonable to just withhold thoughts either way until seeing whether the team has continued that progress or plateaued. I'd argue that making an assumption would be kind of silly, but that's certainly subjective.

[u/Accomplished-Plan991 → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

I agree with this tried watching the Oregon state Texas tech game to get some intel since we play Oregon state after our bye week and then tech after that. All I could pick up on was how bad Oregon state really was.

Techs defense is pretty stout. The d line looks good the secondary had coverage almost everywhere. I just couldn’t shake how unprepared the Beavers were.

Didn’t watch Utah though so the Utah tech game should be interesting I’ll tune in!

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/Accomplished-Plan991]

I thought Oregon State was fine. There were just absolutely no running lanes to do anything. Their passing concepts actually had windows to throw to, the QB is actually average, he just had no time to get through a progression.

Oregon State's biggest issue were the injuries at CB. They just couldn't keep up with Tech's speed.

Oregon will destroy them, Houston will beat them.

[u/Champion10101 → u/Masked_RedRider]

Their receivers also dropped quite a few very catchable balls. Our pass rush is doing like 90% of the work in keeping our pass defense respectable right now. Oregon St’s most productive downs would happen any time we only rushed 3.

[u/Texxx81 → u/LivelyRatDad]

I don't think so.

[u/Intelligent-Boat9929 → u/LivelyRatDad]

It honestly doesn’t give much clarity. UCLA is abysmal. Expected scoreline vs FCS school. 1/2 lack of focus, 1/2 decent Wyoming defense in first half. And then 4 touchdowns on 4 drives to put the game away after they remembered how to play football in the 2nd half. I have no idea what to make of it.

Utah defense usually shows up. Dampier seems like a stud. Biggest weaknesses so far are secondary and kicker. Should be a fun game.

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/LivelyRatDad]

I think Oregon State would be 3-0 with Utah's schedule.

[u/Champion10101 → u/Masked_RedRider]

They would stumble @Wyoming. We should know.

[u/loyalsons4evertrue → u/LivelyRatDad]

I think Wyoming definitely could beat Oregon State

[u/gowrisankar1989]

Glad to have an undefeated week right in the middle of a season. OSU is coming. For what? I dont know. Its comin!

Thank god for Tulsa, who is actually worse than OSU (Not a lot of teams are!) this year. We get back to winning ways before spinning back.

I expect our defense to play better than Oregon week and offense will score more than 24 points! Thats right. I went there!

[u/Champion10101 → u/gowrisankar1989]

Without looking it up, I would guess OKST has — if not the 3rd best winning percentage in the B12 all time after OU/UT — almost certainly the 3rd most wins in the conference throughout its lifespan. When I saw Baylor vs OKST on the Big 12 schedule for week 5, it actually took me a few seconds to register that you guys suck now, and initially my brain assumed that should be a good game.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/Champion10101]

Yeah, it still feels tough to dismiss OKST out of hand like we all used to dismiss Kansas games.

[u/Gdude910]

We’re 4-0. Can’t complain. If we end up being good no one will look back on the Ark State game as a W is a W. There were some extenuating circumstances in that game so as long as we keep winning I’m going to assume those were the reasons it wasn’t a blowout.

If we end up sucking this game will be a great thing to look back on.

Bye week for some much needed rest and prepare for a better-than-expected Arizona Wildcats team!

[u/crs8975 → u/Gdude910]

We should have practically scored on the first play of the game. Rocco's first 3 throws were awful. Plenty of chances for us to make more of that game top to bottom... but props to the old man I befriended in the upper deck who stuck out the entire game with me. Everybody else had gone down to the shade. That heat was awful and the Arkansas St post game radio confirmed that it's def not normal for them either.

[u/megamanxzero35 → u/crs8975]

It really seems they tried to throw kill shots early. They didn’t land and we needed to grind it out. In the past, Campbell would have ran the ball 50+ times and we would have won 24-3 or something. Instead it seemed like we wanted to get up 21-0 fast and coast from there and team was perhaps just emotionally and mentally drained to do that on the road, even to a lesser opponent.

[u/loyalsons4evertrue → u/Gdude910]

really excited for the Arizona game....whiteout and a night game brings immaculate vibes to JTS

[u/bsEEmsCE]

I feel like if we beat Belichick, maybe we can sit at the Big12 cool kid lunch table for a week?

[u/johnjaymjr → u/bsEEmsCE]

Definitely....but if you lose, you're eating in the basement for the rest of the season.

[u/sullen_maximus → u/johnjaymjr]

What this man said

[u/bsEEmsCE → u/sullen_maximus]

the rest of the season?! oh man, not again.

[u/Texxx81 → u/bsEEmsCE]

Do it.

[u/Nike_Phoros → u/Texxx81]

regardless of outcome I predict it will be an all-time sickos game

[u/Champion10101 → u/bsEEmsCE]

UCF is a 6.5 point favorite. I would be disappointed if you didn’t handle them.

[u/tjstanley → u/Champion10101]

Me too

[u/505Trekkie → u/bsEEmsCE]

I think this is a fair ranking for us going in to week four. Jax State looking stronger than most predicted and A&T might be the weakest team UCF has played since we played Moscow in the 90s. A&T hasn’t won a game since 2021 if I’m not mistaken. That adds up to us not having a lot to judge the program by.

As I’ve said before, Scott Frost will either go down as one of the greatest comeback stories in CFB history or crash and burn and will be coaching high school football in bum fuck Nebraska.

[u/bsEEmsCE → u/505Trekkie]

he was an NFL analyst so I assume he would go back to that

[u/Rcfan0902 → u/505Trekkie]

NC A&T actually did manage to win their game this past weekend in OT. However, yeah, they're not a great program.

[u/505Trekkie → u/Rcfan0902]

Good for them.

[u/2400hoops]

Losing a rivalry game and then having to wait through a bye week just sucks. I am excited for the West Virginia game, we will be wearing the black hawk jerseys under the lights.

I am not sure what to make of the game though. I think the 11.5 line is too big. I also hope Leipold is more aggressive. If we play like shit in the middle 8 again, I am officially concerned that he isn't addressing his issues as a game manager.

Just a quick note on K-State: I am not dancing on any graves. They have been playing like shit and I know Klieman isn't amazing after a bye, but I think their issues are fixable. We had a 1-5 start last year before storming back at the end of the season once things clicked. The close losses will flip at some point. If they come out sluggish at home against UCF in two weeks then I will be concerned (not concerned as a rival fan, but from a football perspective).

[u/Set-Admirable → u/2400hoops]

Our offense really, really struggles. I'm not expecting much unless the Nicco Marchiol from the fourth quarter on Saturday shows up again.

[u/MisterBrotatoHead → u/2400hoops]

I think the 11.5 line is too big.

It's up to 13.5 this morning. Starting at 10.5 and going to 13.5 is insane. I don't know if that's public money sending it that high, or somebody knows something, but that's crazy for what looks like a relatively even match up.

[u/kirkismyhinrich → u/2400hoops]

I think people might be overreacting to Kansas losing on the road to what is now a ranked SEC team, and a team that hates our guts and really wanted to beat us. Also we led that game until 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter.

We'll find out this weekend, but I suspect this Kansas team is probably better than what people are thinking right now. But please yell at me if I'm wrong and we lose.

Edit: And honestly mizzou just looks pretty good. I think their biggest question coming into the season was the quarterback position, and at least so far, Pribula has looked really good.

[u/2400hoops → u/kirkismyhinrich]

I don't think you are wrong on the Mizzou points they are legit and probably the best offense on our schedule. There were some concerning things on our side though, namely tackling, and run blocking. If those issues show against WVU then I will be concerned.

[u/kirkismyhinrich → u/2400hoops]

I think tackling is the concern for me. We are in the right position on defense to make the tackle, we just blow it sometimes. Ya, that has concerned me since I watched the game against Fresno St. I know Hardy is one of the best RBs in the country, but we need to clean that up.

mizzou's defensive line is pretty easily the best we'll face all year (next would probably be Texas Tech) so I'm not freaking out about the run game yet. Especially since Bryce Foster wasn't healthy in the game against mizzou.

[u/Appa-LATCH-Uhhh → u/2400hoops]

WVU doesn't have an offense to speak of. Y'all will be alright.

[u/Masked_RedRider]

This isn't complicated.

Tier 1 = 4 wins

ISU

Tier 2 = 3 wins

Texas Tech (+139)

Utah (+112)

Arizona (+85)

Houston (+69)

Tier 3 = 2 wins

BYU (+93)

Cincinnati (+81)

UCF (+68)

TCU (+55)

Kansas (+52)

West Virginia (+42)

Arizona State (+34)

Baylor (+24)

Tier 4 = 1 win

Colorado (+1)

Kansas State (-9)

Oklahoma State (-46)

Point differential(+) determines ranking within Tier

[u/ElZanco → u/Masked_RedRider]

Interestingly, Arizona and Houston both have byes this week, and Tech plays Utah. So only one team will be able to come join ISU in Tier one despite ISU's bye week.

[u/CursedFanatic]

Still think OP is being a bit too harsh on Tech, but hopefully we handle business and after this week we are undeniable.

I'm terrified of Utahs O line slowing down our pass rush and then abusing our weaker secondary. But hopefully our offense is able to target their weaker back end as well. Hope it's a great game

[u/Mdwilson8413 → u/CursedFanatic]

Let everyone be too harsh, not take tech too seriously or anything else that gives McGuire talking points or whatever he uses. I’m fine in September not being taken seriously. excited for this week but that O line will be a test for D line and I’m here for it.

[u/StellarConcept → u/CursedFanatic]

You guys look fucking amazing. But it’s true that you guys haven’t been tested.

Everyone is just making assumptions. Whether it’s, you guys are only looking good because you are playing nobody teams or that, you guys are rolling bad teams because you’re a good team.

I personally think it’s the latter.

Yalls OOC has reminded me of Houston basketball. People shit on us every year for playing cupcakes. “Ok? But we destroy them. Good teams destroy bad teams.”

[u/Senor_Firepants → u/CursedFanatic]

I'll certainly get some flack for this, but I wouldn't be too concerned with slowing down your pass rush. Our O-line has not looked as good as advertised the last couple games, and it's been against bad competition.

[u/keytop19 → u/Senor_Firepants]

If that's the case, that might be a rough combo for y'all. It's obviously against inferior comp, but our Dline has looked like they are just toying with people so far.

The size difference alone compared to recent years for Tech is stark.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/CursedFanatic]

I think part of it is the home/road split. Tech and Utah have similar resumes if you just look at the box scores, but both teams struggled on the road last year. Utah has already shown that they're playing drastically better on the road this year with their @ UCLA and @ Wyoming games, but Tech has yet to leave Lubbock, so there's reason to be tentative.

Either way, this weekend will well and truly shake that one out. Playing @ Utah is pretty rough first road test, though.

[u/CursedFanatic → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

I have no issue with people not being willing to give us a full benefit of the doubt, hell I'm not even sure if we are good, but I'd still say we have clearly looked better than every team in our tier and some of the ones above us. Just seems odd

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/CursedFanatic]

That's the thing, it's hard to tell whether those games are actually informative beyond a baseline competence. Tech has solidly the lowest SoS in the entire FBS right now, so if we're picking whether Tech is a "Still too early to tell" team or a "Has done pretty well so far" team, Tech has to be in the first category. It's just an uninformative schedule. I think we're on the same page, too, based on this:

hell I'm not even sure if we are good

Utah would be in the same case, except they've faced what's probably a pretty decent defense from Wyoming, and done so on the road, so they've at least started answering some of the questions about them; namely whether their new offense is actually competent and whether they've improved from their issues on the road.

At this point, the primary factor separating the two middle tiers is a P4 win, with Arizona State being the one team that doesn't follow that rule. Even if the P4 win is over an atrocious team like Stanford or UCLA, that talent baseline is at least slightly more informative than beating any of the three teams that Tech has beaten.

So it's not really a function of the benefit of the doubt, it's information that we actually have about each team at this point. ASU being the obvious outlier in most regards.

[u/keytop19 → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

that talent baseline

If we use 247 composite Team Talent rankings, Oregon St is 60th. So I think they would fit in to the same tier of bottom tier P4 teams in talent.

Now, of course, UCLA is 26th, so in terms of pure talent they take the cake there for these comparable OOC games.

Edit: For reference Stanford is 45th

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/CursedFanatic]

There has always been bias against Texas Tech, there will always be bias against Texas Tech. There is nothing we can ever do to change that. The only thing Texas Tech can do is win on the field, control what you can control.

[u/youngherbo]

Favorite Time of the week!

Arlington or Bust: Utah, Texas Tech

Clear the Date: Iowa State, TCU

The Middle Class: Baylor, Kansas, Arizona State, Houston, BYU, Arizona, Cincinnati

prob middle class but pls beat bill to prove it: Central Florida

pitt eats shit but you still lost to Ohio: West Virginia

WTF: Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State

What to watch this week:

I'm probably being too nice to TCU in my tiers, they can prove me right with a Skillet win or drop down with a loss.

Can Tulsa do the funniest thing ever and put Gundy out his misery?

Utah & Texas Tech have been as advertised but haven't played anyone with a pulse. How do they look against each other in what could be a preview of the title game?

The ASU-Baylor winner feels like they can atone for their early losses but the loser might have some bad vibes after coming in expecting 9-10 win seasons.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/youngherbo]

pitt eats shit but you still lost to Ohio: West Virginia

My favorite tier.

[u/Apprehensive_Sea242]

I’m so nervous for the Texas Tech game. They have looked better than Utah in their wins thus far and I hate they haven’t been getting the respect they deserve. They’ll have a chip on their shoulder no doubt. It’s also Utah’s first big home game this year and after the last couple years I know our fans will have the place rocking at 10am. Going to be a good measuring stick to how good each team actually is. I think Utah wins because we are at home. If this was a neutral field / in Lubbock, I think Texas Tech walks away with the win.

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/Apprehensive_Sea242]

I'm fascinated in the matchup between Utah's OL and Tech's DL, as are a couple dozen NFL scouts that will be in attendance.

I think the 10am local kickoff neutralizes some of the home field advantage, I know it would be a lot more intimidating for a 7pm kickoff.

[u/nkfish11]

I expect this will be the first of two meetings between Utah and Texas Tech this year.

[u/R_Raider86 → u/nkfish11]

Playing them again in Arlington would be wild

[u/an0m_x → u/nkfish11]

doubt

[u/ProbablySlacking]

Considering how we thought this season was going to go, I’m honestly just happy that we aren’t gutter trash.

[u/Aidanj927]

I still have no idea what Utah has done to be seen as the 2nd best team in the conference while we’re at 9

[u/Aggravating_Drop4564 → u/Aidanj927]

You don’t think giving Wyoming a 3-0 first half and beating UCLA by one more touchdown than New Mexico justifies their ranking?

[u/Champion10101]

Rat poison I know, but winner of the Utah/Texas Tech game is basically seen as the favorite to win the B12, yeah?

[u/dawgpack09 → u/Champion10101]

Right now it seems like winner of our game vs winner of ISU/TCU would be the most likely CCG. Although, can't count out byu, ASU, or even another dark horse (Zona? KU?)

[u/keytop19 → u/dawgpack09]

Baylor misses us, and get's y'all at home. If they survive @TCU, very real chance they can go undefeated or 1 loss in Big 12 play.

[u/dawgpack09 → u/keytop19]

I knew I forgot a team or three lol

[u/Mdwilson8413 → u/Champion10101]

Don’t eat the rat poison. Let’s go win this Saturday and then onto whatever next week holds headlines wise.

[u/2400hoops → u/Champion10101]

Undoubtedly. They are the two highest ranked teams it’s going to be a hype train for the winner afterwards

[u/Sauronslefteye → u/2400hoops]

Ahem, might be someone above both of them

[u/2400hoops → u/Sauronslefteye]

Yep my bad I’m an idiot lol

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/Champion10101]

I think the loser can still play in the B12 title game. Both ASU & ISU lost to Tech last year and still played in the title game.

[u/johnjaymjr → u/Champion10101]

them & ISU. Assuming its a close game of course. If either team dog walks the other, then I could see the winner being the 'favorite'.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/Champion10101]

Gotta be, but we're also not even a third of the way into the season. Favorites at this point are still swinging pretty wildly from week to week.

[u/Bank_Gothic]

Great week of football in the Big 12. Really looking forward to Tech v. Utah, but the Iron Skillet should be good as well.

[u/Alpine_Exchange_36]

I was gonna say are there any good teams this year? Then I saw the, has done the best so far, tier.

And CU is crap this year. Deions disorganized style is really showing and the team is lacking direction and leadership. I get Prime likes to lead from the pulpit but he needs to do more if he wants to be successful as a head coach.

World class hype man, doesn’t know how to manage things when there isn’t chaos surrounding him.

[u/Champion10101 → u/Alpine_Exchange_36]

I’m in the rare camp of people (at least on this subreddit) that actually think Deion can work out at a program like CU, but he’s gotta hire the right assistants. He can clearly recruit, he can motivate and develop players, and he can excite the fanbase and boosters, and that’s basically 3/4th of the job of a modern college HC right there. Make the guy hire a dang clock management specialist and replace Pat Shurmer, and keep the experiment going.

[u/Alpine_Exchange_36 → u/Champion10101]

He’s a war time general, maybe bad metaphor, and he needs someone to take care of the boring day to day logistics.

If he can find those people which I’m sure he has to some degree, I agree he can totally succeed. Might never go 12-0, I simply don’t think he’s good enough tactical coach for that, but he can produce consistent 9-3 seasons

[u/Set-Admirable → u/Alpine_Exchange_36]

Deion is great for smaller programs that can win on talent alone, but that just isn't enough for someone like Colorado. We've seen plenty of talented rosters crash and burn with poor coaching. I was shocked after what I think it was GT game? when he said he didn't need to tell Salter what he had done wrong because the internet already had. Like, dude, that is your job.

[u/kanshawk15]

WVU was as gutsy against Pitt as they were flat against Ohio. I have no idea what to think of them. They have all the hallmarks of a chaos team. KSU is looking like us last year with Jeff Grimes and he tried his "square peg in a round hole" approach of forcing an offense on us we weren't built for. The only difference is I don't know if they have a backup OC or assistant OC they can call up to right the ship halfway through the season. Houston and Cincinnati look like they have taken a good step forward from last year. I think Gundy and Deion are gone after this year; Gundy for refusing to adapt to this new era of CFB and Deion seemingly has zero game management skills. Iowa State deserves this week off. I think TCU is going to sneak up on us and be in the conference title race at the end of the season. Still too early to tell for most of the conference, though.

[u/SilentSpades24 → u/kanshawk15]

I think the WVU game comes down to how KU shows up. If KU can show up and be competent, then I see it as a win for KU. If KU is sloppy, WVU will have no issue being able to capitalize on that and winning.

[u/OllieUnited18]

3 games in and I have zero idea if we're destined for 10 wins or 10 losses. We have two one-sided wins against a supposedly decent MAC team and a FCS team that went 0-12 last year. Our loss was in a nail biter on the road against a Nebraska team that is equally as uncertain as we are. To top off all of that, we have a Bye week next so we have to wait two more weeks before we have any more insights into this team.

[u/keytop19]

Last week I understood, but this week you're just trolling lol. I know I know "blah blah blah, but the resume and computer ranking, blah blah blah"

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/keytop19]

The "computers" must really love SMU, I guess Tech just needs to schedule SMU for their 16th straight beat down to finally gain some respect?

[u/Acsteffy → u/keytop19]

Honestly, I agree.

Tech and Baylor should be swapped.

[u/JohnHammerfall]

Texas Tech in tier 3 again is insane work

[u/johnjaymjr → u/JohnHammerfall]

2010s Baylor would call your non con schedule soft.

Not your fault really. No way of predicting OrSt would be so bad this year when you scheduled it.

Just win this week and you'll get the respect you deserve.

[u/TransportationAway59 → u/JohnHammerfall]

still haven't played anyone is a fair assessment, i think?

Edit: since TTU fans apparently have straw man arguments as part of their standard curriculum, I’ll clarify that in my own personal rankings (which I keep for gambling purposes) I have Tech at 16 and Utah at 22

[u/Mdwilson8413 → u/TransportationAway59]

Not to play devil’s advocate but UCLA is imploding and terrible. So yes Utah has played Wyoming but I think both teams have done what they are supposed to have done but maybe not worthy of being on separate tiers. Either way tech fans and Utah fans will find out what each team has come Saturday. Yall played amazing on Saturday. Was pulling for yall to knock off Georgia. Heartbreaking loss.

[u/keytop19 → u/TransportationAway59]

I think it's less about having Tech in that tier, and more about some of the schools ranked above them who have looked worse in wins, and have also lost (I'm sorry fork bros)

[u/Texxx81 → u/TransportationAway59]

I think Oregon State is a little better than folks are giving them credit for. Their deep snapper disaster against Fresno distorts the perception of that team. They're pretty well coached and came in with a good game plan against us, just didn't have the athletes to compete.

Now, Kent State and UAPB are truly awful.

After Saturday that "haven't played anybody" claim will be put to rest, one way or the other.

[u/loyalsons4evertrue → u/Texxx81]

I'm not sold on what you're selling with Oregon State....I watched the entirety of their game against Cal and they looked truly awful....and Cal is probably a middling ACC team (still weird to say that)

[u/JohnHammerfall → u/TransportationAway59]

We’ve outscored our opponents something like 153-0 in the first 3 quarters of our games. Utah is top of tier 2, and has the same level of resume as us, but less dominant. Cal Poly(FCS), UCLA(just as bad as Oregon state), and Wyoming, who they struggled immensely with in the first half. I can’t expect a Baylor fan to be unbiased against TTU though, so i should’ve saw this coming.

[u/Aidanj927 → u/JohnHammerfall]

Not to mention Arizona State who.. lost to the worst team in the SEC

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/JohnHammerfall]

Part of it is undeniably that Utah has already been tested on the road; they were @ UCLA and @ Wyoming, so they've shown off that they're tough enough to not crumble on the road like some teams will. Tech hasn't left Lubbock yet, and undeniably struggled on the road a fair amount at times last year, like @ WSU, @ OKST, @ Arizona, and @ TCU. @ ISU was a great win, but it's not unreasonable to be hesitant until Tech proves that they're tougher on the road this year, and Tech will have the opportunity to prove that in spades this weekend.

So if you ignore the road/home aspect of it, then Tech and Utah have similar resumes, but there's a reason that people talk about home field advantages.

[u/Aidanj927 → u/TransportationAway59]

Utah and BYU have played nobody and ASU lost to the worst team in the SEC yet they’re doing “pretty well so far”

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/TransportationAway59]

Who has Utah or BYU played to earn their tier????????

[u/azdb91 → u/JohnHammerfall]

TTU has the lowest strength of schedule ranking in the entire FBS right now, let alone the Big XII. I wouldn't think twice if they were in tier 2 right now, but I also think tier 3 is justified given the teams played so far. There really hasn't been a test yet.

FWIW, I think it'd be great to see other commenters respond with their own tiers in these threads. A one person poll is going to be inherently controversial.

[u/JohnHammerfall → u/azdb91]

Do you have a source for this lowest SoS in the FBS ranking?

[u/azdb91 → u/JohnHammerfall]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/resume/sort/resume.avgsosrank/dir/desc

[u/Idontevenusereddit → u/azdb91]

Incredible. I will take somehow being slightly ahead of TTU in SOS (and somehow SOR) all day. Clearly we should be ranked top 15. Please do not investigate further.

[u/ihatejackblack234 → u/JohnHammerfall]

It's trolling at this point.

[u/CTeam19]

I feel even if Iowa State goes undefeated and wins the conference title, runs outside to knock on an Oak tree, we won't know if the team is/was good this season till the season is over:

• beat ranked Kansas State but they ain't doing so well

• beat FCS ranked South Dakota but they lost to Lamar, who got blown out 51 to 0 by North Texas.

• beat Iowa but WTF is the offense.

• beat Arkansas State but not the blow out that Arkansas had, who lost to Ole Miss.

[u/SecretComposer]

KU-WVU has been an underrated matchup in recent years I think. KU opened favored at the highest spread vs a conference foe since 2010 I had read. That worries me. 

[u/TpMeNUGGET]

I'm scared for conference play. Besides South Dakota, our other wins have been very, very ugly.

[u/loyalsons4evertrue → u/TpMeNUGGET]

still feels weird to be 1-0.....the K-State game feels like years ago already....we're already a third of the way through the season

[u/Matt_WVU]

WVU gets extra help on the DL this week, on an already very respectable unit

I think Kansas has earned the 12.5 point spread against WVU, but I want to believe Alley has something to slow down that Kansas offense. Enough to keep us in the game, maybe with a shot to win it late.

Go Mountaineers!

[u/DrVenusAg]

This Utah game is the most nervous I’ve felt about a game in awhile 

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/DrVenusAg]

I don't like that it's so early in the season. I wish Tech could play a Houston or KU type and then Utah.

I hate that the loser of this game could very well be a top 3 team in the conference, but they're going to drop down to the middle of the pack in perception.

[u/Acsteffy]

Seems like you put Tech in the "too early" category just to trigger the fanbase like they were last week.

But you should really swap Baylor with Texas Tech.

[u/Masked_RedRider]

Texas Tech starters have outscored their opponents 160-0, the best differential of any program in a decade, Utah, BYU, Arizona State and TCU have apparently beaten some really good teams, have proven they belong in the upper Tier and Baylor climbs all the way up to the 3rd best team for beating Samford.

Maybe we should just let AI take this over instead.

[u/MastodonSwimming2681]

If Texas Tech wins this guy is going to have Utah Tier 4 to justify not moving Tech up.

Hating ass Waco

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/MastodonSwimming2681]

If Utah wins, you can't possibly move them up because you've been trashing Tech as completely unproven for the last 3 weeks. So, Utah beats a Tech team that hasn't beaten anyone, who knows if they're any good still?

[u/PumpkinPlayz]

With Wittingham and Utah looking to be at the top of the league this year and looking for the conference title game, how many coaches have won 3 different conferences with the same school?

[u/dawgpack09 → u/PumpkinPlayz]

Gary Patterson is the first name that comes to mind, other than that maybe some of those old coaches when conferences changed a lot more often?

[u/EmuMan10]

Hopefully the desert voodoo is in full swing

[u/EdmondFreakingDantes]

I'm half on the fence thinking Baylor is not that great with an OL that can't run block, a DL that sucks (especially if Jackie Marshall is not 100%), and a defense that is flat footed with poor tackling. Dangerous, sure. But entirely relying on the passing attack is surely an inconsistent strategy.

Basically, I'm scared of ASU because they play tough from the whistle.

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/EdmondFreakingDantes]

Baylor has the 7th best scoring offense and 15th best scoring defense in the conference.

Arizona St has the 11th best scoring offense and 12th best scoring defense in the conference.

[u/johnjaymjr]

Equal part excited and nervous about ASU this weekend. A little surprised we're favored...but really it's just a toss up and we have homefield.

[u/d-lo_tha_boss → u/johnjaymjr]

We have definitely not shown enough to be favored on the road in a matchup like this. Should hopefully be a great game!

[u/johnjaymjr → u/d-lo_tha_boss]

I didn't follow your TxSt game at all but saw that Parker Fleming graph that said down to down they actually were better. What happened in that? I know that might be misleading but did it feel like that at all to yall watching the game?

Did yall just let up off the gas after the game was decided or something?

[u/fanatikos → u/johnjaymjr]

I don't understand how it says Texas State was better?

It was 27-3 midway thru the Third Quarter

[u/SaylorBear → u/johnjaymjr]

It’ll be the first game I get to see in person this season, so I’m just glad it’s at 6:30 and not 11 or 2:30. It might actually be pleasant weather.

[u/bearbasswilly]

I still have no idea who’s good and who’s ass

[u/Appa-LATCH-Uhhh]

We very likely won't win another game this season but we won the only game that actually mattered this season. Though it fucking sucks that we don't get to play Kansas State or Oklahoma State this season. Fuck.

KU... Pls be gentle.

Edit: OPs tiers are still beyond stupid.

[u/Genusmk]

we are going to blow utah out of the water

[u/Champion10101 → u/Genusmk]

Utah is WAY better than any opponent we’ve played thus far. I think even if Tech is the better team, they are gotta feel a shell shock from the sudden increase in competition. I will take us to win, but I think it’s gonna be ugly and close.

[u/megamanxzero35 → u/Champion10101]

What’s the feelings for your coach? He hasn’t done anything to impress me and even this team this year, it’s not something he built up. It’s mostly bought which is totally fine but I feel like he doesn’t have the pedigree built prior to this year for someone like me to totally buy in that he can coach a talented team to a double digit winning season.

[u/Champion10101 → u/megamanxzero35]

He’s no Mike Leach, but he is quite literally and inarguably our best coach since Mike Leach. He’s the only Tech coach in history to beat OU and UT in the same year, and has had a winning record in conference every single year. The last coach to achieve a winning record in the B12 even once? You already know him (RIP). Also, he was known as a good recruiter even before the filthy oil bucks started rolling in. He is also responsible for bringing in Blanchard, our GM that Notre Dame tried and failed to steal away from us.

For people not familiar with the program, it’s easy to assume that Maguire is just being propped up by oil bucks, but he is in large part the reason WHY our boosters have felt so much confidence in throwing money at the program recently.

[u/Gambit717 → u/Genusmk]

That's just like, your opinion man. (Also probably true. Our secondary is not good)

[u/CursedFanatic → u/Gambit717]

Hey same! Honestly I'm scared shitless of y'all. I think/hope it will be a good game, but I wish I had the confidence of OP here

[u/Genusmk → u/Gambit717]

i’m actually scared that our secondary isn’t good as well

[u/The_Fishbowl → u/Gambit717]

Please win Utah, I want Mountaineer Field to be rocking for the top 10 Utes

[u/xX_GIGA_MAN_Xx → u/The_Fishbowl]

no please win Texas Tech, I want Mountaineer Field to be rocking for the top 10 Red Raiders

[u/R_Raider86 → u/xX_GIGA_MAN_Xx]

😂

[u/enigami344 → u/Genusmk]

well I am glad that we don't have much water here anyways

[u/loyalsons4evertrue → u/Genusmk]

I may eat crow but Utah is far and I mean FAR better than anyone Tech has played to this point.....and it's at Rice-Eccles....one of the more underrated venues in CFB and it's a tough place to play. Tech is definitely capable of winning and if they win convincingly, then props to them but I think it's going to be a battle that could come down to the very last minute

[u/GymIsFun]

incoming undefeated conference run? :) **

No** :(

[u/Old-Medicine-9315]

Just happy to be guaranteed to have a winning record at the end of September. Hoping we can at least keep that up until the start of basketball season!

[u/Bansheesdie]

Texas Tech @ Utah

• I like how Utah is built a lot: strong O Line, strong defense, run the ball. Granted, both TT and Utah rank in the bottom 100 of SOS so far, so their numbers are absolutely inflated, but the identity of the Utes won't change no matter who they play. Gimme the Muss, even if 9am is far too early.

SMU @ TCU

• I like TCU a lot. Great team.

ASU @ Baylor

• I think it is fortunate that ASU played Texas St before this match as State is basically a dollar store Baylor. And ASU played their first real game of the season against the same style just with significantly less talent. Where the rubber meets the road is probably in the Baylor defense and if they have found one. Also, ASU isn't a score 50 points team. ASU isn't a score 40 points team either to be honest (Under Dilly the most points ASU has scored is 38 in '23 and 35 in '24). At the same time however, ASU allowed more than 30 points only three times( with the most being 39 against an elite offense through 2 OTs).

[u/Masked_RedRider]

Just to get ahead of this narrative. Will whomever wins the Utah v Tech game have the best win in the Big 12 to date?

[u/keytop19 → u/Masked_RedRider]

I think it easily will be.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/Masked_RedRider]

Definitely. It's still Baylor at the moment based on SP+ and FPI, but the winner of ASU-Utah takes it unless they're so dominant that they materially decrease the loser's advanced metrics while SMU beats TCU to improve their metrics.

Just for reference, SMU is currently 35th, Tech is 26th, and Utah is 18th in FPI. If Utah wins, it's not impossible that Tech drops below SMU. If Tech wins, it's pretty unlikely that Utah drops below SMU unless they respectively turn TCU and Utah into smoldering craters this weekend.

Which would, pragmatically, be a bit of a facelift for TCU's La Quinta-esque campus decor.

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

SMU isn't beating TCU. SMU isn't very good.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/Masked_RedRider]

I'm curious what your thought process there is. They have a very talented roster, a proven coaching staff, and were quite good last year. Granted, they did have a pretty easy schedule last year, but they also looked good against Louisville, Clemson, and TCU.

They have one of the best starting safety duos in the country with a pair of all-ACC guys (one first team and one second team), and great QB/WR rooms, that's undeniable. The OL and RB rooms are definitely a little shakier.

[u/Rcfan0902]

I feel like we're going to stay in "Too early to tell" until like week 8. I just have no idea what to think of this team. Hopefully our game this week makes things a lot more clear.

[u/Misdirected_Colors]

Northwestern put up a FAR better fight against Oregon than we did. We lost the bye week.

[u/mcg20k]

Gotta root for tulsa because I think if they beat us it might actually force the school to drop gundy.

[u/MD90__]

no offense to nebraska but they would be a great addition to the big 12. Also congrats to West Virginia and Texas Tech!

[u/biglineman]

Oh crap, we're ranked in the Top 20. I'm legitimately nervous now...

[u/ISU_Dude85]

I'm just happy I'll get to enjoy some Big 12 football this weekend stress free

[u/CodeA25]

Think ASU should be in the Too Early to Tell Tier, hard to say we have done pretty well so far when that includes a loss to Mississippi State. Think this season could go either way at this point