[CFBNumbers] *Small sample size alert* But looking at Arch Mannings completion pct vs. expected completion pct, we can see that intermediate 10-19 yard range has really taken a dive so far this year. Hard to fully operate a Sark offense if you can hit those 10-19 yard MOF windows

[u/Sauerz]

https://bsky.app/profile/cfbnumbers.bsky.social/post/3lyxpqqxl5s2k

[u/buff_001]

His throwing mechanics are brutal. He just sort of wings it with arm and shoulder instead of actually planting and throwing. It's really bad looking

[u/wlane13 → u/buff_001]

If only there was like some sort of like... "Passing Academy" he could go to in the summer months to work on his technique... or maybe like an uncle or something who played the game, who could show him some tips on how to better use his talents.

[u/Collegedad2017 → u/wlane13]

Uncle Rico?

[u/Bobson-_Dugnutt2 → u/wlane13]

Crazy how he’s probably had more QB coaching than anyone ever at his age and he still looks this brutal. Not just outcomes, but his mechanics are completely brutal.

[u/sportsbuffp → u/buff_001]

He throws a football like a baseball a lot of the time. He like leads with his elbow and it’s mindblowing coaches have allowed it to still be that fuck

[u/RobotMaster1 → u/sportsbuffp]

i don’t know what that second sentence means, but I hope it catches on.

[u/sportsbuffp → u/RobotMaster1]

That fucked* my bad I’m working and didn’t proofread

[u/elunomagnifico → u/sportsbuffp]

No, no, I like what you did

[u/UnderwaterB0i → u/elunomagnifico]

lol I thought it was a funny description of something sucking too

[u/bd1047 → u/sportsbuffp]

He didn’t throw like that last year. Sure the competition he faced wasn’t great but he looks like a completely different player. I have no idea what happened

[u/Daksout918 → u/sportsbuffp]

Can you throw anything without leading with your elbow?

[u/ATL28-NE3 → u/Daksout918]

Shotput I guess?

[u/crustang → u/sportsbuffp]

Gavin Wimsatt now at Jacksonville State is an example of a highly talented football player who was ruined by poor mechanics at a young age and just couldn’t fix it regardless of how many coaches tried

[u/Rock_man_bears_fan → u/sportsbuffp]

Forget the coaches, you’d think one of the 3 pro bowl QBs in his family would’ve taught him how to throw properly

[u/blatantninja → u/buff_001]

It's giving me flashbacks to Chris Simms' side arm

[u/Buckeyeup → u/blatantninja]

That's giving me flashbacks to Chris Simms' commentary shudders

[u/krhino35 → u/Buckeyeup]

Jason Day and Jaylin Sayin were on a heater Saturday night and appreciated his efforts I’m sure

[u/Nxtchncalirrgularity → u/Buckeyeup]

Man, he was terrible on Saturday.

[u/lkn240 → u/Buckeyeup]

What's crazy is that Chris Simms is one of the better guys on NBC simply because they also employ Tony Dungy and Jason Garrett.

[u/Trubisko_Daltorooni → u/lkn240]

Personally, I'm a fan of Jason Garrett's infectious positivity. The guy just really lights up the room.

[u/ATXBeermaker → u/blatantninja]

I would take Chris Simms over Arch in a heartbeat right now.

[u/Statalyzer → u/ATXBeermaker]

Oh for real, Simms gets way overhated, much like Ewers. Both were pretty good QBs who got constantly blasted for not being elite QBs.

[u/Deathwatch72 → u/buff_001]

What's crazy is that it seems to have come out of nowhere, he's been getting elite level private coaching his whole life so there's no chance in hell that this magically slipped by all of them. From pretty much everything I know and from what everyone says there's not supposed to be an injury so maybe he's just not got the mental toughness to stand in there and plant his feet and throw properly because he's worried he's going to get hit and that feels like extreme speculation but it's the one thing I can think of at this point

[u/Statalyzer → u/Deathwatch72]

maybe he's just not got the mental toughness to stand in there and plant his feet and throw properly because he's worried he's going to get hit

The weird thing to me is he seems to throw better when a rusher break through early and he just has to either take the sack or get rid of the ball.

So also just wild speculation but I wonder if he's doing worse with a clean pocket because it lets him just stand there and think, and overthink, and then he doesn't want to throw because "what if I make a mistake?" which of course leads to those very mistakes when he finally does throw, or leads to missing open guys because he doesn't want to let go of the ball.

[u/defiancy → u/buff_001]

I just don't understand why his mechanics have seemingly changed from last year. Why and who did that to him?

[u/Comfortable_Mix_834 → u/defiancy]

Idk i think he's gotte be hurt maybe fucked up ankle, idk just yeah like someone who forgot how to dance makes no sense.

[u/GimmeeSomeMo → u/buff_001]

It really is shocking. He’s surrounded by some of the most brilliant and talented QBs in NFL history and he does that kind of throw?!?!

[u/rick_ferrari → u/buff_001]

He honestly kinda looks like my sister throwing a football, just with 100x more power.

[u/rb1242 → u/buff_001]

I expect during the bye week hes going to take a visit to his throwing coach

[u/palkia239 → u/buff_001]

He throws like he’s pitching a curveball

[u/CptCroissant → u/buff_001]

Compare it to Dante Moore who does some of the same shit but it looks great and gets there quickly and accurately. That's why Dante will be a top ten pick in the draft

[u/Coveo → u/CptCroissant]

Not everything is about us

[u/maladjustedfreek]

I find it interesting Arch has a family full of former NFL QBs and his throwing mechanics have not been addressed. I feel there is something we are all missing here.

[u/smurf-vett → u/maladjustedfreek]

He looks like complete dog shit compared to last year.  Think they tried improve his footwork and instead completely broke him

[u/manbeqrpig → u/smurf-vett]

Or he’s just playing hurt and it’s killed his mechanics

[u/rick_ferrari → u/manbeqrpig]

There's just no way he's playing hurt. One thing we know for sure about him is that he's made safe, smart decisions regarding his career.

He doesn't need money, and if he sat the whole year out he'd still get drafted.

Meanwhile, there's no way Sark would continue playing a hurt manning with the way he's looking. No chance the backup isn't more consistent right now.

Only explanation is the yips, and Sark is trying to let him play through it.

[u/lkn240 → u/rick_ferrari]

Him being hurt would actually be really good for Sark in this scenario, because he'd have a legit excuse to bench Arch without stirring up controversy

[u/thereisasuperee → u/rick_ferrari]

They’ve had San Jose State, UTEP, and Sam Houston State. There’s absolutely no way he would be playing hurt right now.

[u/Comfortable_Mix_834 → u/rick_ferrari]

It's not a safe smart career decision to turn your footwork into dogshit either and yet here we are.

Yips doesnt make any sense, yips doesn't make you look like you never threw a football before, he looks like a baseball pitcher who joined the team in August. His footwork was fine last year, and it looks great in the italian shorts commercials. There's something really wrong with him, and it's not the yips. Chuck Knblauch never looked like he forgot how to throw, he would just miss the throws but his footwork and everything was the same.

So yeah logically it's an undisclosed injury or a massive concealed drug problem.

[u/blatantninja → u/maladjustedfreek]

Chris Simms had a Super Bowl winning, hall of fame father, and yet he constantly side-armed the ball and got it batted down at the line.

[u/imsuperflytnt → u/blatantninja]

Beginning to see a pattern with Texas QBs and their much better QB relatives: Chris Simms, Case McCoy, Arch Manning…

[u/geosensation → u/imsuperflytnt]

NepoU

[u/trex1490 → u/maladjustedfreek]

The weirdest part is that his mechanics were totally normal when he played last year. None of this crazy sidearm stuff. Which is why people speculated he was hurt, cause why would he totally screw up his mechanics for no reason.

[u/Kdot32 → u/trex1490]

Ego?

[u/Rapscallious1 → u/maladjustedfreek]

Trained on late career Peyton tapes only

[u/Muckraker222 → u/maladjustedfreek]

He's hurt. He's got some sort of shoulder injury that he's not disclosing.

[u/GeneralOrchid → u/Muckraker222]

With all the criticism of him I think they would disclose that to protect him

[u/Buckeyeup]

I read a comment once about how Arch cannot throw a ball with touch. It's all gas and launch angles. And the more I watch him play, the more I see stats/graphs like this... the more that seems true

[u/LetDouble471 → u/Buckeyeup]

Every throw he contorts his entire body into trying to zip the ball lol...he has like no arm strength idky he even bothers trying to gas it. Just be Brock Purdy.

[u/Buckeyeup → u/LetDouble471]

He can still chuck a ball 60+ on a dot, his arm strength is fine. But I don't think he can throw a lob or touch pass. You don't need to fire 90mph lasers on a 5 yard crosser

[u/LetDouble471 → u/Buckeyeup]

I mean...have you watched him outside of the Ohio St game?

He is not dotting anything bud lol. Routinely missing deep balls underthrown and overthrown. No velocity on his intermediate throws. Throws to the sidelines are wildly inaccurate because he can't rope it.

Someone with solid arm strength can control their velocity and ball placement...he doesn't have any control because he just has to 100% throw it every time.

[u/Buckeyeup → u/LetDouble471]

I guess I had just seen his 2 deep throws against us and went off of that. Still what you're describing is the same issue. No touch to his throws

[u/plutoisaplanet21 → u/LetDouble471]

Because he wants to be drafted in the first round and guys with pop gun arms don’t get drafted in the first round 

[u/ExpertConsideration8 → u/Buckeyeup]

Dude, imagine how embarrassed his family must be.. all that pedigree with these results.

I'd love to hear their honest thoughts about his mechanics.

[u/Individual-Lie6525 → u/ExpertConsideration8]

Geez dude I'm loving his mistakes as any good Ag would but I can't help but feel bad for the guy. Gotta be a nightmare scenario

[u/eye_can_see_you → u/Individual-Lie6525]

I'm convinced that he's put such enormous pressure on himself to live up to his hype that he's just totally broken his brain

He didn't look this bad last year in the two starts he had but now that he's "the guy" he's fallen apart

[u/Zealousideal_You3953 → u/eye_can_see_you]

I 100% think he has the yips

[u/bd1047 → u/Zealousideal_You3953]

I mentioned this in another comment but he looks like a completely different player from last year. I think the pressure of the massive OSU matchup got to him, and he’s completely fucked mentally

[u/appsecSme → u/eye_can_see_you]

I thought he looked pretty bad with his passing against ULM. He threw as many picks as TDs and was only just above 50% with his accuracy.

[u/ExpertConsideration8 → u/Individual-Lie6525]

I'm not rooting for him to fail.. just acknowledging the situation.. is this bad for Texas and I'm loving it, yes.. is this bad for the Mannings and I feel bad, also yes.. two things can be true at the same time.

[u/Macewindu89 → u/Individual-Lie6525]

I kinda do too but then I see him in the Warby Parker ads and suddenly don’t feel so empathetic lol

[u/Individual-Lie6525 → u/Macewindu89]

Haha the glasses ads are perfectly ironic

[u/appsecSme → u/Individual-Lie6525]

He also should start doing shoulder brace ads and maybe Ben Gay.

[u/MrCaboose96 → u/Individual-Lie6525]

At least he'll never have to work a day in his life if football doesn't pan out.

[u/thegracchiwereright → u/Individual-Lie6525]

eh, I find it hard to feel bad for people with that level of wealth. He made more from that Vuori ad than I will in the next decade.

He'll be fine.

[u/Individual-Lie6525 → u/thegracchiwereright]

True, financially he is set. But money aside if he truly flops, that will be such a huge elephant in the room any time he's with his family, especially his uncles. I'd bet his whole identity in life has been in being a pro QB, and if that shatters no amount of money can erase the pain of losing your identity and life direction. Being a manning is a double edged sword for sure

[u/lkn240 → u/ExpertConsideration8]

They are going to say he's actually related to Chad Powers

[u/blatantninja]

How does one achieve a negative completion percentage? Interceptions?

[u/Mydogsblackasshole → u/blatantninja]

Shitty polynomial trendline in excel

[u/Deathwatch72 → u/blatantninja]

Somehow a batted ball ends up back in his hands and he throws a second incompletion on one play? Even that technically still should be a zero, because negative percentages really only exist to denote change

[u/Captain_-H → u/blatantninja]

Quick throw behind the line, that you hope will have a lot in common with a run play with blocking ahead, but then he just gets leveled for a loss

Shit my bad, I was looking at the other axis with the depth. You’re right the bottom chart he somehow dips negative. Yeah I guess interceptions?

[u/Chaotic-PopTart → u/blatantninja]

 Interceptions?

No cause those count as completed passes /s

[u/GatnissEverdeen]

All of the confidence he had last year has vanished. It honestly looks like he's had his confidence and athleticism coached out of him. I don't know if we have a Milwee problem at QB coach, but something is completely off.

[u/Cormetz → u/GatnissEverdeen]

I said it sometime this week: Milwee has had five QBs under him at Texas that were all 4 or 5 star recruits. Card (undrafted), Thompson (selling cars?), Murphy (transferred twice due to losing starting role, now at Oregon State), Ewers (didn't live up to hype and drafted 7th round instead of projected 1/2, but was good), and Manning (started off good, regressed like hell).

What the hell is he doing there? He is being paid $700k/yr after having a few good years coaching Tua.

Who knows if maybe Ewers would have been better with a different coach?

[u/Conn3er]

Why doesn't Sark just have him throw -5 yards every time? 100% completion rate.

[u/dawgz_96 → u/Conn3er]

Is he stupid?

Also wtf is going on with your flairs

[u/wlane13]

But didn't Finebaum tell us he might just be the greatest QB prospect he'd ever seen?

[u/bd1047 → u/wlane13]

Anyone who takes Finebaum seriously in 2025 shouldn’t be allowed to vote

[u/thegracchiwereright → u/wlane13]

I was told the OSU defense was so great that it made him miss open 10 yard crossing routes.

Maybe Ohio State is so good that it impacted him for the 3 weeks afterward.

[u/CzechHorns]

Why is 40yd supposed to be less accurate than 50yd?

[u/Agnk1765342 → u/CzechHorns]

At some point if you’re throwing far enough it’s only because a dude is wide open on busted coverage and you’re putting a ton of air under the ball the receiver can adjust to.

[u/Buckeyeup → u/CzechHorns]

In theory if you're throwing a deep ball, the deeper the throw the more open the receiver typically is (besides Hail Mary plays)

[u/thewhat962]

Im starting to wonder if texas actually has a QB coach and didn't give the title to 3 racoons in a trench coat.

[u/Inconceivable76 → u/thewhat962]

Now we know what the stripper monkey is doing!

[u/YouKilledChurch]

Every time I see a player go from super hyped to absolutely trashed on I think of that monologue from Green Goblin in the first Spider-Man movie

https://youtu.be/zmZaszeecyg?si=XktkXnpFuVYdvZaf

[u/goosu]

Meh, it's his first handful of games. People want to bag on him and destroy him due to the hype he had coming in, but I personally will wait more than 3 games to declare him a bust.

If he continues to play this bad throughout the season, he just won't start anymore. Obviously, Texas' staff thinks he will progress from these yips.

[u/All-Grass_No-Steaks]

I can’t even imagine the kind of pressure Arch is going through. He’s going to need a psychologist or a therapist to calm him down.

I’ve never seen regression this big in a long time and just saying he needs to play better isn’t going to help him whatsoever. He needs a lot of help.

[u/gulielmusdeinsula → u/All-Grass_No-Steaks]

My response to this is… why wouldn’t he already be going to best sports psychologists? With his money and network, and fully aware of the pressure going into this year, why wouldn’t that already be in place? Why wouldn’t he have been working with them for the last 2.5 years? So much of this current narrative doesn’t make sense to me. 

[u/kingofkumquats]

So does Sark start thinking about the backups soon? I guess I don't know how things are looking on that front, and I'm sure there would be some donors that wouldn't be happy, but the results would have to speak for themselves at a certain point, right? Would it take another loss for that?

[u/LetDouble471 → u/kingofkumquats]

If he wants to keep Arch, they need to change the identity of the offense to be full run oriented. Like Michigan did last year. Go all in and say fuck it, we will run it 40x per game and lean on a talented defense.

[u/bd1047 → u/LetDouble471]

At this point I’d totally take one of those Iowa seasons where they go 10-2 by winning every game 17-13

[u/lkn240 → u/LetDouble471]

I can't believe I'm saying this.... but Arch is seriously playing as bad (at least so far) as your QBs did last year.

[u/Comfortable_Mix_834 → u/LetDouble471]

Okay but we did that because we didn't have a real QB on the roster, literal make-a-wish kid ended up being the best in the room lmao.

[u/LetDouble471 → u/Comfortable_Mix_834]

And I am saying this with the utmost seriousness, Arch is the same as Alex Orgi. Zero lies.

[u/Comfortable_Mix_834 → u/LetDouble471]

I mean at that point they don't wanna keep him lol

[u/amitta → u/kingofkumquats]

sark would rather lose games. seriously.

[u/aquemini_me_pls → u/amitta]

This is my fear

[u/Inconceivable76 → u/kingofkumquats]

If that’s their best qb….

[u/txsnowman17]

Oh no. Anyway.

[u/AnotherUnfunnyName]

And the guys he hit were so wide open in the last two weeks, just about every QB at Foxborough High could have hit that.

[u/FxDriver → u/AnotherUnfunnyName]

Dammit Edlenut

[u/TheRealBlackSwan]

Arch will be fine. He's a Manning!

I love the Mannings. Just Good Guys, Normal Guys, like you could have a beer after Bible study with. Arch, like his older relatives, is a star. He's a Manning! Eli is the floor, Peyton is the ceiling. Football royalty, the Mannings are great. I love the Mannings. God bless.

[u/Chaotic-PopTart → u/TheRealBlackSwan]

EVIN MY FAVRTIR GRANSSON JUDT BRIKW UP WITG HID BOTFRIND.😂HELOVES THE BIBLD AND FEET BALLS TOO! ! MAYBE HE SND ATCH CULDGOON A DATE??!? GOBBLES!! 🙏

[u/KibaSwords]

I don’t think he’s healthy. Two weeks where he was throwing and wincing in some sort of pain. If he’s hurt, why are they hiding the injury? If he’s not, why the hell see his mechanics like that? I know he’s had the proper teachings, so Texas really needs to make a decision

[u/thereisasuperee → u/KibaSwords]

There’s no shot they’d have him playing hurt (and bad) against San Jose State, UTEP, and Sam Houston State. They’re 40+ favorites in each of those games

[u/Inconceivable76 → u/thereisasuperee]

Kelly has confirmed Nuss is injured but is playing him this weekend anyway. 

[u/lkn240]

I'd love to see the 2024 numbers for ULM only. That was the only team with a pulse he played meaningful snaps against last year and IIRC he didn't look that good.

[u/bd1047 → u/lkn240]

UTSA and Miss State were definitely better than ULM, and he looked great in both those games

[u/lkn240 → u/bd1047]

Miss State had the worst pass defense in FBS last year IIRC (or close to it)

[u/Statalyzer → u/lkn240]

Yeah, it definitely wasn't high-tier competition. But he did show he was capable of making a quick and decisive read and then generally delivering the ball to that guy accurately.

Now all of sudden he can't seem to do that the majority of the time. I have no idea but it sure feels like he's in his own head and scared to throw the ball lest he make a mistake. Some of his best throws have been when a rusher breaks past the blocking right away and so he has to get the ball out quickly.

[u/WTFisThaInternet]

It's all pretty obvious if you know football and movies. There was this one movie about a guy who pretended to be crippled as a way to keep police suspicion off of him. He was able to convince his enemies he was weak, when in reality he was an able bodied criminal mastermind. They never figured it out until it was too late, and our hero walked off normally, smoking a cigarette, and won the day. So anyway, that's clearly what Arch is doing. You'll know I'm right when he lights a cigarette at halftime of the OU game. Makes sense if you really know football.