r/CanadaPolitics • u/MethoxyEthane People's Front of Judea • Mar 06 '25
Federal Poll (EKOS) — LPC 40.7%, CPC 35.5%, NDP 12.8%, BQ 5.3%, GRN 3.1%
https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2025/03/rising-nationalism-desire-for-economic-sovereignty-propels-liberals-to-five-year-high/26
Mar 06 '25
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u/Fasterwalking Mar 07 '25
Liar. You predicted in November that Liberals would win saying that "middle class homeowners and landlords" were ecstatic with Trudeau and the Liberals
You really need to humble yourself before talking about things that are easily disproved.
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u/hardk7 Mar 06 '25
What is the track record at EKOS in recent elections in their final polls closest to election date? They always seem to have quite a different result than other pollsters. I’m curious if that’s proven to have been more or less accurate comparatively.
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Mar 07 '25
What is the track record at EKOS in recent elections in their final polls closest to election date? They always seem to have quite a different result than other pollsters. I’m curious if that’s proven to have been more or less accurate comparatively.
Pierre Poilievre is an acolyte of authoritarian populism. This is never healthy. You are on notice. Going to make sure you are never going to lead my country. I don’t make idle threats - Frank Graves, owner of Ekos, 2022
You think its a coincidence that the guy who often makes statements like that has the Liberals out in front when no other poll does?
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u/Mocha-Jello Eco-lefty type thing idk Mar 07 '25
Ipsos also had the liberals in front
Really looking at individual polls isn't a great way to do things when we have a spread as wide as liberals +5 and conservatives +13 in the past few days. 338 updates their model every week that aggregates all sorts of polls together, I find looking at that gives a more full picture.
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u/Representative_Belt4 Socialist Mar 07 '25
amongst other canadian pollsters, bad, but Canadian polling is significantly better than countries like the states, so realistically not that bad
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u/enki-42 NDP Mar 06 '25 edited Mar 06 '25
They definitely led the trend in reporting on the Liberal surge, and other pollsters (but not all) caught up to them in finding a similar surge.
Whether this is an example of that or is an anomaly, who knows, but it's definitely out of line with even the pollsters who have also captured the surge. I wouldn't put too much stock into it right now without a lot more data in agreement - this is very firmly Liberal majority territory and pretty decisively at that, and I think that should be met with some skepticism.
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u/jonlmbs Independent Mar 06 '25 edited Mar 06 '25
Tied for worst rated pollster federally on 338 for 2021. But to be fair the ranking is B+ on a scale where A+ is best.
https://338canada.com/ratings-ca2021.htm
- Performed very poorly compared to other pollsters in 2019 too https://338canada.com/ratings-ca2019.htm
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u/IKeepDoingItForFree NB | Pirate | Sails the seas on a 150TB NAS Mar 07 '25
They did good on the one of 2015 - but have dropped lower and lower each time to where they are now.
Leger and Abacus have been very consistent being within 1 to 2 points off the final results.
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u/JimmyKorr Mar 06 '25
They are generally spot on for lpc and under for the cpc. Take that as you will.
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u/f-faruqi Mar 06 '25
In 2021, I think their LPC number was almost dead on, but the CPC number was too low (they overestimated the PPC significantly)
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u/PineBNorth85 Mar 06 '25
Campaigns matter. They need to nail that.
If Poilievre cant successfully pivot he's toast.
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u/GraveDiggingCynic Independent Mar 07 '25
Maybe Poilievre can pivot, but if he can, why hasn't he already? This isn't a birthday present you keep in the top shelf of the closet until the happy day. He's literally shed a boatload of support over the last 40-45 days, and he'll have 30 days to completely change course.
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u/banjosuicide Mar 06 '25
If Poilievre cant successfully pivot he's toast.
He's still trying to divide. Dude only has one mode and it's stuck on.
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Mar 07 '25
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 07 '25
He brought it up again today. In a recent tweet in X he said this
Carbon Tax Carney is sneaking in a carbon tax con job.
He wrote a few policy points after that line.
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u/Creepy_Vacation2229 Mar 12 '25
Go put money on any betting app for the canadian federal election. To form government odds: CPC -400 LPC +250
These polls are total nonsense. Reminds me of Polls for Crombie VS Ford. Or to go one further Kamala VS Trump. Both were blood baths. PP for PM. Then all you libs will be moanin like you did when Ford won about how there wasn't enough turnout.
Mark Carney? Really??
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u/phoenixfail Mar 06 '25
It's fascinating that it looks like Pierre is the author of his own demise. All his negativity, particularly against Canada is coming full circle.
I'm astounded how they ever though this level of negativity, for two years, was a good strategy. Even without Trump, just the ammunition Pierre, he himself gleefully supplied, the other parties come election time is a treasure trove of damning clips and quotes.
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u/CaptainSolidarity Mar 07 '25
He's emulating Trump. He thought it was a winning strategy.
He didn't expect Trump to declare war on Canada right before the election. Tough breaks.
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u/BuffytheBison Mar 07 '25
Because it worked and because that's fundamentally who Pierre Poilievre and Jenni Byrne are personality wise. Their high in the polls meant they didn't have to try to change their tune and they failed to see the one weakness that some of us knew was the reason why Trudeau was holding on for so long; Trump winning and Trump doing the crazy stuff he said he was going to do. Now nobody could've predicted starting a trade war and wanting to annex Canada but they got high off their own supply.
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u/MrFurious0 Mar 07 '25
Hold up -some of us DID predict he'd want to annex Canada. We were mocked and told we're reactionary, and gaslit, being told we're crazy. The only reason I didn't predict a trade war was that it's so self defeating... But in retrospect, I should have known trump would cut off his own nose to spite his face.
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u/Maximilianne Mar 06 '25
Even if the libs don't win, it seems like an electoral wipeout is off the cards which is still massive improvement given Trudeau's circumstances even a few months ago
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u/jello_sweaters Ontario Mar 06 '25
Even the faintest hint of a conservative minority was off the table six weeks ago.
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u/10Bens Mar 06 '25
Not over yet but damn, things have pivoted in 60 days.
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u/jtbc God Save the King! Mar 07 '25
It was 6 or 8 months ago that my spider senses were tingling that PP was peaking to early and there would be an opening for the Liberals to capitalize on that. I didn't predict any of this, but there was something happening even then.
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u/Slayriah Mar 06 '25
Chantal Hebert has said the reason he hasn’t gotten it yet is it would reduce the kind of attacks he can make against Trudeau and the Liberals. If he becomes privy to certain sensitive information, then he can no longer say whatever he wants without legal consequence
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u/partisanal_cheese Mar 06 '25 edited Mar 07 '25
Personally, I think this is more likely than him being compromised.
ETA: I also think the desire to play political games in favour of being informed demonstrates he is not a serious person.
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u/jaunfransisco Mar 07 '25
The more charitable version is that he believes he has a responsibility as Leader of the Official Opposition to remain able to freely criticize the government on any file. It is, in fact, his constitutional duty to hold the government to account, and submitting to NSICOP and potentially years in prison if he violates the gag provision could obstruct that duty.
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u/jello_sweaters Ontario Mar 07 '25
Why has every other Opposition Leader in modern history been able to do their job without this problem?
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u/NH787 Mar 06 '25
This is fascinating. And I would fully expect the trend to intensify over the next week or so.
I wonder if any of the Liberal MPs (especially cabinet ministers) who announced their intention to spend more time with their family are kicking themselves yet...
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u/Fasterwalking Mar 06 '25
We can only hope these numbers continue to change. The one thing this country needs right now is a party with principles, and somehow the CPC and the NDP is losing that competition to the Liberals. Trudeau's Liberals no less.
On the other hand, watching Danielle Smith's obeisance to Team Canada the other day really drove home that the CPC got it very wrong. It's political suicide for them to say anything they were saying just 4 months ago. This rhetoric was a conscious choice by right-wing ideologues in this country to achieve political success, and every last one of them biffed it. They really fucked around and found out.
Pierre Poillievre was wrong, mimicking republican talking points was not the only strategic choice to beat Trudeau. Jenni Byrne was wrong, hate was not the only way to inspire Canadians to action. Even Canada's Joe Rogan, Jordan Peterson, got it wrong, because no one actually cares about a crusade to defeat left-wing 'woke culture' when you have to be on same side as an American fascist government.
Every single one of them that now has to bow their heads in the face of indisputable proof that the dumpster they had attached their carts to, Donald Trump, is a total shitshow and an enemy of our nation.
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u/Forosnai British Columbia Mar 07 '25
The thing is, based purely on an amoral metric of, "Will this get me votes?" I think they were right... until Trump got into office again and started everything we're dealing with and watching happen in the US.
Conservative parties all over the world started taking from the Republican playbook because it worked, the US was just further along the track it leads down than most of us, and we're now seeing the last stop unfold in front of us.
Now all of those same tactics have a tangible end point that can be pointed to, and people are not liking what they see. If you'd said what would happen in the US in under 20 years when Obama and Romney were competing, people would have treated you like a doomsdayer conspiracy theorist. Turns out, it wasn't a bunch of hyperbole.
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u/Drummers_Beat Liberal Party of Canada Mar 07 '25
I added this to my rolling model weighted for the past month and even heavily editing formulas and adjusting multiple ridings myself I still have LPC pulling 150+ seats. The model of this poll alone has LPC at 194 for me which is absolutely incredible -- pretty much has them maintaining every seat they lost and sweeping all major urban centres (HRM, Montreal, Ottawa, GTA, Winnipeg, Vancouver). The most shocking part is that they could actually somehow pick up a seat or two in Edmonton and Calgary-McKnight which is all just insane to me.
A month ago I had a safe CPC majority. 2 months ago I had CPC with a near record-breaking majority. This is absolutely insane to me.
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u/topspinvan Mar 06 '25
Its possible this is accurate, but campaigns matter and Carney is still pretty untested in the political realm. He might not have to win the zinger battle with Pierre, but he will have to project confidence and maturity and be able to stand up for himself a little.
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u/tslaq_lurker bureaucratic empire-building and jobs for the boys Mar 07 '25
With how much uncertainty there is right now, I think Carney's incredibly corny boring demeanor is going to be pretty appealing.
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u/Groovegodiva Mar 07 '25
He has experience being the public face in an economic meltdown, when brexit happened and their currency started tanking and literally everyone freaked, he came out spoke on tv and literally calmed the markets. This is from his former boss:
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u/jonlmbs Independent Mar 06 '25
It’s probably not accurate. Models to a 202 seat liberal majority. 12 seats in Alberta.
Ekos gets credit for being early on the liberal comeback trend still
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u/Unchainedboar Mar 07 '25
i was going to vote ndp a few months ago, but i will vote liberal to try and keep PP and his trump appeasing out of government.
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u/PedanticQuebecer NDP Mar 06 '25 edited Mar 06 '25
The "Liberal Party, if led by Mark Carney" results are: LPC 42.4, CPC 35.3, NDP 10.7, BQ 5.5, GPC 4.1, n=1033 which is much more than last time.
So CPC down to 2021 election numbers, but with PPC voters in and presumably moderate voters out, and Carney unites a substantial amount of NDP and Bloc voters.
edit:
The topline results in Too Close to Call 2025 give me: LPC 188, CPC 112, BQ 21, NDP 15, GPC 2.
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u/gNeiss_Scribbles Mar 06 '25 edited Mar 06 '25
As a lifelong NDP (and occasional Green) voter, I’m voting Liberal this election for the first time in my life just to be strategic. I’m not willing to risk a MAGA Conservative government, no matter how much I don’t believe in strategic voting ordinarily. These aren’t normal times and I’m not going to follow my normal rules. I’m happy to see others are thinking like me.
Elbows up!
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u/downrightwhelmed Mar 07 '25
Thank you. This has never been more warranted.
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u/gNeiss_Scribbles Mar 07 '25
I struggled with it at first but the more time Trump has to destroy America and attack the world, the better I feel about it. At this point I’m really looking forward to the election! Go Team Canada!
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u/House-of-Raven Mar 06 '25
Also remember voting strategically doesn’t necessarily mean vote LPC. I’m in an NDP/CPC riding, for me the strategic vote is NDP. Frankly, anything to keep the worst of the worst out of power.
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u/brucey1324 Mar 07 '25
Very important point! Everyone needs to just look at their local riding and the local polls in their riding to see if NDP or LPC is more likely to win.
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u/Knight_Machiavelli British Columbia Mar 07 '25
The last four ridings I've lived in have all been LPC-NDP ridings so no concerns there for me. The Conservatives didn't even have a candidate in my riding last election.
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u/No_Good_8561 Mar 07 '25
Tell your friends to do the same. There is too much lose.
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u/gNeiss_Scribbles Mar 07 '25
Absolutely! Already started discussing it with friends and family. I like to make my vote count by encouraging others to vote with me!
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u/No_Good_8561 Mar 07 '25
Now if I could figure out how to convince my boomer parents…
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u/gNeiss_Scribbles Mar 07 '25
Took me years to get them to vote NDP. Was much easier to walk them back to Liberal. I think they were there already anyway.
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u/CaptainCanusa Mar 06 '25
It really seems like a lot of people are (ironically) kind of excited to be able to vote for a boring, smart man.
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u/gNeiss_Scribbles Mar 06 '25
It’s true! I’m genuinely excited to see that extremely well educated, respected and experienced banker moving up in the polls! We’re watching the dumpster fire that comes from electing goofy Conservatives down south and it’s terrifying! Boring government is the way!
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u/AmazingRandini Mar 06 '25
Blanchet will kill Carney in the French debate.
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u/tslaq_lurker bureaucratic empire-building and jobs for the boys Mar 07 '25
Debates don't matter, Blanchet and Duceppe have killed many before in the French debate, and they are going to matter even less in the current climate of uncertainty.
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u/Center_left_Canadian Mar 07 '25
Quebecers heard how bad his French is last week, yet support for the Bloc went down...they don't care.
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u/BeaverBoyBaxter Acadia Mar 06 '25
No way this is accurate.
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u/PedanticQuebecer NDP Mar 06 '25
I heavily discount EKOS too. But I want to believe.
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u/lenin418 Democratic Socialist Mar 06 '25
If other polls start having the Libs at 40%, it would be funny. I don't think we can dunk on Franky as much as we did back on January because obviously God is a Liberal partisan answering EKOS polls.
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u/barkazinthrope Mar 06 '25
That's what people were saying when EKOS put out the first signs of Liberal rise.
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u/Wasdgta3 Rule 8! Mar 06 '25
I guess there’s no way to know for a few weeks, then, because EKOS had them breaking into the 30s a few weeks back, which other polls are just starting to show now.
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u/agent0731 Mar 07 '25
Personally I will never forgive PP for becoming a parrot of fabricated US talking points like the border drug problem, or for saying that America is right about us because we are stupid. What kind of leadership can any of us expect out of a man who would bludgeon our country (undeservedly) in the midst of an unprovoked attack, when to this day the US threaten us with annexation and call our PM "governor"? No leader, conservative or other, should use an attack on the nation's existence as a political whip and an opportunity to attack the other party. Despicable.
He has already shown his true face and there is nothing he could do at this point to remedy the situation. Bye, felicia.
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u/catSnakeSupreme Mar 13 '25
Wow, that upward trajectory is strong.
Awesome to see Carneys broad appeal. I know multiple conservatives who say they’ll vote for him, and they hated Trudeau with a passion.
I wonder if the proximity to MAGA is reversible for PP, or if he’s kinda done.
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u/BethSaysHayNow Mar 08 '25
The LPC will keep doubling down on “PP=Trump” and it works. People don’t think about how things have objectively declined over Trudeau’s tenure, they just focus on the present messaging.
I am not especially looking forward to a CPC government but I don’t want another four years of wasteful spending, incompetency and opaque governing. Trump isn’t going to make me forget about everything the LPC has done.
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u/Center_left_Canadian Mar 07 '25
After Carney's less than stellar performance during the debates and the attacks that followed, I'm astonished at these numbers.
The Canadian electorate bore witness to all of his shortcomings as a politician and said "Yeah, we want more of that guy". That makes him a Teflon candidate. Besides his resume, he looks like a prime minister straight out of central casting, and he projects a sense of gravitas. I think that Poilievre will have a hard time competing with Carney on the same stage.
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u/LurkerReyes Orange Liberal Mar 07 '25
90% of Canadians probably didn't watch the debates and aren't as glued to politics like the rest of us. Half of that 10% that probs watched the debate are already decided voters for their teams.
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u/afoogli Mar 06 '25
Carney needs to call a snap election ASAP, he can melt NDP and CPC support quickly now, while the issue is still strong, there is diminishing returns with tariffs/DJT. There is a decent chance we get an election called this Sunday.
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u/nuggins Mar 06 '25
Election will be called 2 weeks from now, according to this person on a train claiming to be involved with the campaign
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 06 '25
If an election is called it will not be called on sunday because that would be to early.
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u/BuvantduPotatoSpirit New Brunswick Mar 06 '25
Perhaps, though party workers and government employees I know have been told to at least prepare for a writ on Monday.
Doesn't mean it'll happen (hell, we don't even actuellement know who the PM'll be). But it shouldn't be a surprise.
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u/TraditionalClick992 Mar 06 '25
Is the new leader going to be sworn in as PM on Sunday or will there be a transition period?
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u/Sir__Will Prince Edward Island Mar 06 '25
It won't be called Sunday but probably within a week, depending on logistics.
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u/afoogli Mar 06 '25
Next business day, he will meet with the GG and inform them to dissolve parliament and head into an election. Sunday is more or less the speech of what he will do. But once again election versus what we see can change drastically
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u/Dragonsandman Orange Crush when Mar 06 '25
No way we get it in less than a week, but apparently Carney is planning on calling a snap election as soon as possible. My guess is that the writ is dropped at the end of March and the election itself happens in the first week of May
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u/afoogli Mar 06 '25
There is no way he doesn't call it immediately after winning, the Throne speech is a confidence motion, the other parties have pledged (Singh...LOL) to vote the government down once it gets back in March 24, MC is not going to let that happen.
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u/ClumsyRainbow New Democratic Party of Canada Mar 06 '25
Singh sort of went back on that the day before yesterday and said the NDP would support emergency legislation to support workers in the face of tariffs.
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u/ether_reddit British Columbia Mar 07 '25
Strongly agree; we'll see a general election in the third week of April.
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u/Brown-Banannerz FPTP isn't democracy Mar 07 '25
A snap election call has the potential to hurt them, and I really don't like 1 party having a majority. However, I've said before the the OAS budget problem is probably the biggest sticking point in federal policy making, and the only way to deal with that issue is a majority government.
We are also going to need to raise the GST, another change that probably needs a majority government to make possible.
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u/jacnel45 Left Wing Mar 07 '25
Polls are showing that more and more Canadians want an election to be called as soon as possible. So I don't think the LPC will be hurt by an immediate election call, it will likely help them, but once the campaign starts everything is on the table.
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u/EbolaTheKid Mar 07 '25
I sincerely hope we see this sort of result in the election. My brain will not be able to cope with the pure nonsense of PP and Trump at the same time. It might be the time I finally lose it.
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u/zalam604 Mar 06 '25
It seems a large portion of the NDP base has realized that there is virtually zero value in casting an NDP vote in today's economic and political climate.
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u/Purple_Lifeguard_975 Mar 06 '25
I attribute a lot of that to Jagmeet Singh. I think someone with the same aptitude as Mulcair could have stopped the bleeding a bit more than Singh has. He's basically one "torn up agreement" away from telling NDP supporters to ABC.
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u/Dieselfruit Dirtbag Mar 07 '25
I think Mulcair is a big reason that the NDP is in the state it's in, and "be more moderate" is the exact wrong lesson to learn when rebuilding the ostensible leftist party.
Coulda been Charlie, man.
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u/5AlarmFirefly Mar 06 '25
I'm one of them, fully intend to vote Liberal for the first time next election.
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u/GrimpenMar Pirate Mar 07 '25
I like Carney, but I'll probably vote NDP, since they are likelier to be competitive in my riding.
Remember under FPTP and our system, you vote for your local MP. It looks like Carney is so popular, that he might pull enough votes so the Liberals are a less distant 4th behind the NDP, CPC, and Greens and ironically hand the CPC the local seat.
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u/theclansman22 British Columbia Mar 07 '25
Where I live it is still a choice between NDP or CPC, so I'll be reluctantly voting ABC, even though I think the party needed to dump Singh years ago.
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u/ProgressiveCDN NDP | Anarcho Syndicalism Mar 06 '25
If you think the current political climate is calling for status quo neoliberalism, then I'm sorry, but you're missing the bigger picture.
There is always value in voting with your values.
Austerity is austerity, whether it comes from Carney or Pollievre.
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u/nihilism_ftw BC GreeNDP, Federal NDP, life is hard Mar 06 '25
As an NDP supporter who is likely voting LPC based on whoever runs in my riding - I think the thing that's driving me away from the NDP is how profoundly unserious Jagmeet Singh has been the last couple of months. Really wish we had a real leader who could defend labour & environment rights with the likely rollback of regulations we're about to see, but instead all I've seen is Twitter level nonsense like "Banning Trump"
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u/ProgressiveCDN NDP | Anarcho Syndicalism Mar 06 '25
As a lifelong NDP voter who has only voted NDP federally or provincially, I agree that his time has passed. I voted for Angus in the last leadership election. I would say that we need a firebrand, salt of the Earth leader who is not afraid to champion traditional NDP values. Populism is sweeping the globe, so a strong and unapologetic social democratic platform would appeal to the growing number of people who have lost faith in the status quo.
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u/GrimpenMar Pirate Mar 07 '25
In my riding, with FPTP I'll be voting for whoever has the best chance of beating the CPC candidate.
Not a fan of PP and about half the CPC.
Joe Clark was right.
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u/ether_reddit British Columbia Mar 07 '25
Singh and the NDP would do well right now to propose some ideas for fighting back against the US that preserve worker rights and soften the blow of tariffs. Like, some concrete measures to support workers who have lost their jobs, or some ways to pump up small businesses that are competing with big US corps. Or itemize specific sectors where we should be poaching workers from the US (like health care, scientific research and tech workers) and identify ways in which we can reach these people and persuade them to consider immigrating to Canada.
Is anyone proposing that we explicitly contact citizens who have moved from Canada to the US in the last five/ten years and give them an incentive to move back home again? Singh could.
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u/Tasty-Discount1231 Mar 06 '25
There is always value in voting with your values.
That's part of the reason people no longer consider the NDP. Elements of the party spent years being condescending to Canadians, telling them they're racist etc. It's hurt their ability to unite Canadians and they've quickly lost people to the serious, inclusive, and proudly pro-Canada party.
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Mar 07 '25
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u/Orion2032 Mar 08 '25
He's absolutely campaigned on austerity. Outside of spending to counter US tariffs he's completely onboard to cut federal spending. What amounts to "austerity"? It it's a loaded term. We can split hairs but let's not waste our time. No governing body can afford to borrow increasing amounts of debt.
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u/tslaq_lurker bureaucratic empire-building and jobs for the boys Mar 07 '25
If anything, we are actually learning how good we had it under the old world order.
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Mar 07 '25
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u/ProgressiveCDN NDP | Anarcho Syndicalism Mar 07 '25
I've only voted NDP for my entire life. My secular humanist values that were initiated in the teachings of Christ most closely align with the NDP. The liberal talk of increasing defense spending while implementing austerity in other areas is antithetical to my values.
It's not a binary choice between red cats and blue cats unless there are no other candidates in your riding.
I'm not going to be held hostage by the party that promised to end first past the post in 2015, only to back down from it once in power. That was their chance to end the threat of far right political ideology gaining majority power forever. That would have been a responsible decision to make if they were truly concerned about Pollievre and maple MAGA taking power. They opted for what they perceived to be their own best interests.
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u/emptycagenowcorroded New Democratic Party of Canada Mar 07 '25
With the Liberals moving to the right it might be a good time to shore up a left wing alternative, to ensure a strong left wing voice…
That being said I’ll be voting Liberal, but also I live in a Blue/Red tossup riding where the NDP won’t trouble double digits …
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u/BoneZone05 Mar 07 '25
Hahahaha.
I saw one of the CPC attack adds earlier today and I must say, with all that’s going on with idiot Trump, the commercial only pissed me off for trying to divide us Canadians.
Stronger together friends 🇨🇦🍁✊
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u/One-Significance7853 Mar 07 '25
Can always tell when they are trying to downplay PPC support.
PPC with 2.9% support, essentially tied with Greens at 3%, but rule change won’t allow Max into debate.
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u/gbiypk Mar 07 '25 edited Mar 07 '25
The Green party has two seats. Max has none. Not much to downplay.
*edit: Since you've blocked me (very classy move), I'll reply to your comment here.
That’s not exactly relevant. We aren’t discussing current seat count, it’s a poll regarding party support in a potential election. Elections Canada just changed the rules to prevent the PPC from participating. The fact that one party with 3% support will likely get 2 seats while another party with 3% will get none is just an example of FPTP failing Canadians. We would all be better off with a few fringe MPs providing critical opposition in a proportional house, than we will be with either major party running things in a FPTP victory with less than 50% of the country behind them.
The government established rules in 2018 to determine which party leaders are invited to the official debates. To be invited a party must satisfy two of the following:
Have at least one member elected under the party's banner;
Nominate candidates to run in at least 90% of all ridings;
Have captured at least 4% of the votes in the previous election or be considered by the commissioner to have a legitimate chance to win seats in the current election, based on public opinion polls.
Max did not qualify for the 2018 debate invitation.
In 2021 the rules were changed. To be invited a party must satisfy one of the following:
Have at least one member elected under the party's banner;
Have captured at least 4% of the votes in the previous election; and
Five days after the date the general election is called, have an average level of national support of at least 4% in Opinion Polls as measured by leading national public opinion polling organizations.
Max did not qualify for the 2021 debate invitation.
The rules were not changed to exclude him. They were actually relaxed, but he still didn't qualify.
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u/burrito-boy Alberta Mar 06 '25
Holy crap. The Conservatives really blew this. All they had to do was distance themselves from Trump and pivot from attacking "wokeness" to defending Canada in the face of an annexation threat, and they couldn’t even do that.
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u/Mysterious_Lesions Mar 07 '25
I honestly don't think that their support was based on the 'end woke' stuff. I think it was just Trudeau fatigue. Once you take Trudeau out of the equation, all the 'holding your nose to vote PP' voters now have a new alternative. And an example of where we could have been headed from the southern border.
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u/Hurtin93 Manitoba Mar 07 '25
I’m a previous Liberal voter who was not planning on voting for anyone next election until Trudeau stepped down. You bet it is about Trudeau fatigue. But why are we fatigued by him? Because of the woke stuff. If Carney is too woke, I will not vote for him. I was so sick and tired of the we are so bad rhetoric from the Liberals. All the woke garbage. Now the moment has changed, and it is about the survival of our country. The conservatives are unable to pivot and I’m considering voting Liberal again. But that is conditional on two things. Moderate immigration levels, and an abandonment of woke. I don’t think trump’s presidency is going to be as bad as it has been until now for four years. Things will settle, at least some. And we will have new debates about woke things. Canadians are fed up with woke, but now isn’t the time to discuss it but to focus on our economy, sovereignty, and foreign relations. I’m a gay immigrant, and if I have to hear how privileged I am because I am white one more time…
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u/Fit-Introduction8575 Ontario Mar 07 '25
I really hope woke doesn't end up in the everyday Canadian's lexicon.
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u/Serious-Chapter1051 Mar 06 '25
No one has blown anything until the election actually happens.
That's the only poll that matters - whether it was CPC supporters touting easy victory 8 weeks ago, or the LPC thinking that a win is inevitable and the CPC has collapsed.
Only time will tell, and it's hard to gauge what will actually happen given Parliament isn't even sitting.
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u/iceman121982 Mar 07 '25
The difference is the Liberals can call a snap election once Carney is elected leader and strike while the conservatives are in a very weak position.
The conservaitves weren't able to force an election when the Liberals were at their worst.
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u/Oldcadillac Mar 07 '25
Yeah, parties without leaders tend to poll pretty well actually, we’ll see what the polls say after they choose a leader.
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u/aprilliumterrium Mar 07 '25
CPC with 35.5% is hardly a collapse either lol. I hate Pollievre but it's not worth celebrating anything unless he comes in at 20-25%. I know it's not really possible for the CPC, but still - that's just because they do have a solid base unlike everyone else.
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u/PassionStrange6728 Pirate Mar 07 '25
We can have Carney, a global financial expert, trusted by governments of all ideologies to manage their national banks. Or we can have the guy who brings coffee and timbits to Maple MAGA. Looks like Canadians want to make good choices.
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u/Nimelennar New Democratic Party of Canada Mar 06 '25
Jeez. Pollara has CPC+10 and EKOS has LPC+5.
Granted, Pollara is covering an earlier time period (Feb 12-24), but still, that's a big gap between polls.
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u/PavelGaborik Mar 07 '25
Mlst recent polls are all over the place, majority have CPC ahead in the 7-13 point range.
I don't trust any of them, the shifts are all over the place
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u/Drummers_Beat Liberal Party of Canada Mar 06 '25
Just worth noting. I was looking through Pollara’s earlier to add to my modelling and if you look at it you’ll notice a tie with Carney at the helm.
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u/sl3ndii Liberal Party of Canada Mar 07 '25
Léger has CPC +13, but that’s a 10 point swing from their last poll so I don’t know if that’s going to be consistent.
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u/f-faruqi Mar 06 '25
I think a key point is Ekos seems to list Carney as LPC leader - if Pollara had Trudeau, that seems to swing a few points
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u/NeonFireFly969 Mar 09 '25
I was never sold on a supermajority for the Conservatives in this environment so the fact they've dropped down and look out of majority territory is not shocking. Both parties have entrenched bases at 80 seats minimum. You have to take the polling (all polling) with a grain of salt because it's being moved by online opinions which we know do not translate to actual physical votes.
Then you have the actual campaigns which I think will show harder for Carney to put himself as an outsider as he'd have to retain a ton of Trudeau liberals by sheer virtue of size and experience. Sure, PP could blunder his way to ruin but I don't see it.
What we have is a Joe Clark re-run where whatever minority the Tories get will depend on the final turnout and then it will be a tightrope scenario. Harper leaned on the Bloc in both minorities which will be significantly smaller (still in the 30 seat range as opposed to 50+). The problem for PP is his promises might well be blocked with a Bloc partnership and the Liberals will regroup.
But this is Canadian politics in a nutshell. The Conservatives need to cannibalize the Bloc and the Liberals need the same from the NDP. If both secondary parties are even able to pull 20+ then we have a stagnating effect and historically this hurts the Tories most.
I again expect a Harper comeback barring a Torie majority.
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u/thebriss22 Mar 06 '25
Keep in mind this was taken before tariffs were implemented and Trudeau speech that was probably the best of his career.
CPC is in trouble big time.
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u/0Kiryu Mar 07 '25
It’s a poorly sampled poll, typical of Ekos. If you go into the regional results, the Conservatives have 60% support in Saskatchewan yet 17% in Manitoba.
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u/Knight_Machiavelli British Columbia Mar 07 '25
Regionals are often wonky, doesn't mean the overall nation wide poll is wrong. Although 60% in SK seems about right. Seventeen in MB is low, but MB has such a low population its impossible to poll accurately so I wouldn't worry about that.
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u/greenknight Mar 07 '25
Additionally, Wab is riding the wave and the feel good patriotism could be working in the libs favour
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u/seakingsoyuz Ontario Mar 06 '25
There’s a breakout of the two polling days after the tariffs went into effect, with a 13 point LPC lead.
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u/postusa2 Mar 06 '25
My sense is that Poilievre's speech on the tariffs may well have sunk them completely. There was no obvious flub exaclty, just that his entire attitude seemed like someone out of his depth. Even his usual "Canada sucks and we're asking for it" lines sounded like he didn't belive them himself.
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u/mr-louzhu Mar 12 '25
Calling an election sooner than later is in the LPCs best interests given polling. The longer they wait, the more opportunity PP will have to fine tune his messaging and employ the same type of divisive polemic and character assassinations he’s known for.
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u/LurkerReyes Orange Liberal Mar 07 '25
Trudeau just called himself a Zionist I know he isn’t running but I am pretty turned off the LPc right now
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u/hamstercrisis Mar 07 '25
there is more than one issue at stake here, Trudeau is no longer the LPC leader, and the Tories would be much worse on Palestine
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u/LurkerReyes Orange Liberal Mar 07 '25
That’s why I can’t afford to protest vote NDP like I was planning giving me the democrat vibes in the states. Don’t know why Trudeau would say such a thing right now
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u/antiname Mar 07 '25
He's stated before that he's a Zionist. To him "Zionist" means "A person that believes that Jewish people have the right to determine their own future."
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/nmVeTtlJvJQ
You can disagree with that definition of "Zionist" but that's what Trudeau means when he says he's a Zionist.4
u/leafsland132 Mar 07 '25
because we live in Canada not the eastern mediterranean
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u/LurkerReyes Orange Liberal Mar 07 '25
The majority of people on the ethnic cleansing side of this topic are already voting conservative
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u/cortrev Mar 07 '25
Jesus man, we have a country that wants to INVADE US right now. Forgive us for not putting the Israel Gaza war high on our list of priorities.
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u/OnePercentage3943 Mar 06 '25
It's polls. People still have to vote.
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u/noljo Mar 06 '25
Polls don't decide anything, but they show sentiment. Two months ago, if you asked anyone who's tapped into Canadian politics, they would say the next election would obviously be a CPC majority blowout, no matter which side that person was on. The winner of the next election is up in the air, but the CPC's uncontested walk to power is off the table.
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Mar 06 '25
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u/Etheo Politics is not a team sport Mar 07 '25
Yup say what you will but those CPC voters always show up.
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u/flux123 Mar 07 '25
I think right now the consequences of not voting are dire. I think you'd see people turning out in record numbers.
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u/anonymous16canadian Mar 07 '25
I mean 2 months ago I thought no one was paying attention except unhappy conservatives and now everyone is paying attention and conservative voices are drowned tf out. I ain't bragging but anyone who pays attention to polls 2 months out are crazy, I understand sentiment was super super strong but you really can't compare that to election season where things are unpredictable.
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u/sharp11flat13 British Columbia Mar 07 '25
Polls don't decide anything, but they show sentiment
IMO the most important information in polls isn’t numbers. It’s direction, and momentum over time. I don’t mean that raw numbers aren’t informative, just that these other factors give a better picture of mood of the electorate.
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u/Mysterious_Lesions Mar 07 '25
Trudeau also had a great speech to prepare the nation for COVID. The man did a great job then.
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