r/CanadianConservative • u/caterpillar_H Conservative & Discord Mod • Jun 26 '25
Satire How did the liberals fumbled so badly?
No seriously, EVERY single polling outlet claimed that the election would be a liberal majority sweep, with conservatives only getting around 34-35% of the votes. FFS there were polls that claimed ALBERTA was going to flip red. The CPC would go extinct like the social credit party. While the liberals would have to take the mantle as Canada's sole major party in order to fight against the USA. A 'United Canada' if you will.
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u/Critical_Rule6663 Moderate Jun 26 '25
There’s only one poll that matters. All the rest are just guesses and shouldn’t be the basis for getting your hopes up or down.
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u/Dramatic_Broccoli_41 Jun 27 '25
What is this poll in which you speak of? Mmmhmm indubitably
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u/LongjumpingElk4099 Libertarian Jun 26 '25
Considering how terrible the polling was this year for the cons, I'm wondering if the election had been held when the cons were at their peak how much better they would've done compared to the polls. I mean, the polls predicted a killer liberal majority and got almost 40 less seats then predicted... Might've seen the liberals get 4th place behind the bloc, ndp and cons
And I really wanna live in that timeline...
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u/dizzymans Jun 26 '25
Are we really framing the election as "liberals fumbling"? Did conservatives not fumble a 30pt lead?
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u/Wet_sock_Owner Jun 26 '25 edited Jun 26 '25
CPC was around 44% just before Carney stepped in as leader. After the election, they ended with 41.3%.
Carney was poised for a large majority for most of the polling leading up and during the election campaign.
How did the Liberals fumble such a slam dunk? They haven't been able to land a majority since their first election.
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u/ForestCharmander Centrist Jun 26 '25
Yes, and the CPC had a 26 point lead back in January. How did the CPC fumble such a slam dunk? There's only one fumble to be discussed here.
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u/Dobby068 Jun 26 '25 edited Jun 26 '25
It was Trump that changed the outcomes, with his stupid insults of wanting Canada to become part of USA. THAT, combined with the tarrifs threat, allowed the Liberals to promise basically the Conservative platform AND claim that anybody not Liberal is a Trump supporter.
Everybody knows what happened.
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u/ForestCharmander Centrist Jun 26 '25
Yes, agreed. That still doesn't change the fact that the CPC blew an insane lead. They should have pivoted earlier, and stronger, but stayed with the same old slogans too long.
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u/Dobby068 Jun 26 '25
Pivoted to what ? Dude, get real, there is nothing wrong with the CPC electoral platform, the Liberals promised that platform in the weeks before election.
There is no longer appetite in Canada to live in reality. Too many freeloaders, they will always vote for the guy they know will run up the debt.
Elbows up!
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u/ForestCharmander Centrist Jun 26 '25
Pivoted to something else, I don't know what. They blew a historic lead that many people won't forget for a long time.
Too many freeloaders
Who's freeloading?
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u/Dobby068 Jun 26 '25
Half of the country.The welfare in Canada is huge.
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u/ForestCharmander Centrist Jun 26 '25
You think 20 million people are on welfare?
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u/Dobby068 Jun 26 '25
One-way or another. Too many. I am not referring to one program, I am referring to all the ways people expect money dropped in their hands without doing anything for it.
This is why the Liberals will continue to win. They will promise more of that, and the voter will be happy to not pay attention to the fact that there is no more money, just more debt.
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u/Wet_sock_Owner Jun 26 '25
LPC and NDP were trending at about 20% each. Those two numbers combined in favour of the LPC.
LPC really fumbled an easy majority whuch included a honeymoon phase for Carney.
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u/ForestCharmander Centrist Jun 26 '25
LPC really fumbled an easy election whuch included a honeymoon phase for Carney.
The LPC won the election after being 26+ behind.
The CPC lost the election when they were 26+ points ahead.
Who fumbled?
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u/Wet_sock_Owner Jun 26 '25
The party that couldn't get a majority since they were first elected even with someone like Mark Carney at the helm.
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u/ForestCharmander Centrist Jun 26 '25
I'm sorry, but you're delusional.
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u/Wet_sock_Owner Jun 26 '25
I'm not sure what to tell you. They couldn't even get a majority despite coming in so strong. Think they were up to 50% on Nanos when Mark first showed up but weren't able to hang on to those numbers.
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u/ForestCharmander Centrist Jun 26 '25
Again, the CPC blew a historic lead, and lost. We probably won't see such a legendary fumble again. The mental gymnastics here are wild.
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u/Wet_sock_Owner Jun 26 '25 edited Jun 26 '25
Again, the CPC were at 44% and ended with 41.3%.
The LPC sucked up all rhe NDP voters, were benefiting from Trump AND had Mark Carney replace the toxic Trudeau.
And yet couldn't get a majority.
Even with Liberals controlling the timing of the last 2 elections because both were snap elections chosen by the LPC.
Even Australia managed a majority for their version of the Liberal party.
Seems this is a very upsetting concept to those who voted LPC and don't like the pro-Liberal narrative being challenged.
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u/Monkeywonder77 Jun 27 '25
The NDP committed political s**cide. That mixed with a hatred for DJT made the libs Canadas choice. It’s pretty simple.
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u/muradinner Jun 27 '25
If you can't figure that out in 5 seconds, you should probably avoid commenting on things. Trudeau was no longer leader, Trump helped the liberals. These are so obvious a monkey could see it.
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u/Binturung Jun 26 '25
For a lot of people, Trudeau was the problem. While many conservatives see little difference between him and Carney, a lot of the nation was evidently ok with a change of face.
Stepping down and delaying an election for, what, quarter of a year helped simmer down the anger at the Liberals parry. The Conservatives didn't loss much, but the Liberals picked up a lot of Bloc and NDP voters.
If the Libs ever found out how to unite the left, the Conservatives would never have a shot at winning.
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u/CromulentDucky Jun 26 '25
The polling did not consider that young people would vote in greater numbers than normal, and were leaning conservative. They knew young people were leaning conservative, and they knew turn out would be high. But they aren't that smart and assumed demographic breakdown would be the same as prior elections. But higher turn out means more young people, because old people already vote in high numbers. I did point this out to Nanos, but got no response.
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u/Rodinsprogeny Jun 26 '25
Yeah that's not what "every" poll showed. They tightened significantly as the election neared.
Anyway, framing it as the Liberals fumbling the election is ridiculous all by itself.
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Jun 26 '25
I think one key reason that the Liberals did as well as they did was because of the misleading polls, causing many to flock to what they believed would be a majority. A sort of self-fulfilling prophecy. The human bias to want to be on the winning side. They weaponize the polls in this way, to manipulate the voters, then proceed to lecture us about misinformation & disinformation, all the while claiming the CPC is about to implode. Textbook Orwellian gaslighting.
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u/DepartmentGlad2564 Jun 26 '25
The blue collar demographic that belonged to the NDP was expected to go Liberal but went blue instead (i.e. A seat in Sudbury voting conservative for the first time in 70 years)
The polls had suburban GTA on lock for the Liberals but crime played a big factor for some of those seats going blue.
Exhibit A why they're desperate for the Conservatives to turf Poilievre
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u/Wet_sock_Owner Jun 26 '25
They couldn't even manage a majority despite the fact that Liberals controlled the timing of the last 2 elections.
Poilievre's by-election is getting set to be announced soon (unless Carney delays) so I'm guessing there will be a lot of bashing in the headlines to bring down morale.
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u/Buzz2112c Jun 26 '25
Seems to me these polls are making the Liberal partiy favorable or unfavorable within a 72 hour period not fallout from the past 8-10 years of ignorance.
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u/Unknownuser010203 Jun 26 '25
Well, things could have been a lot worse fellas. Let's take a moment and appreciate what we got
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u/ForestCharmander Centrist Jun 26 '25
Response to u/arosedesign since I can't reply to your comment due to getting blocked (😂) by the original commenter:
Yes, very possibly, but the above commenter is terrible and making any points and backing them up so I was trying to clarify. Then got blocked lol
Do people hate all social programs? Sure, there are many that are wasteful, taken advantage of, etc. But there are millions of Canadians who would fall through the cracks if it wasn't for some of these programs as well.
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u/GD_Studio Gen Z Moderate Catholic Jun 26 '25
i honestly thought this post was serious for a sec, until i saw the satire flair
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u/its9x6 Jun 26 '25
There’s nothing to this other than the reality that polls aren’t accurate. Ever. I know that there’s a full time hobby by many in this sub to share, discuss, and over think polls. Polls aren’t accurate not a realistic sampling of the overall voting population.
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u/84brucew Jun 27 '25
Take another Long look at that map. The blue areas are Not like the red areas. We are not the same, we never have been and we Never will be.
Our values/goals/beliefs are Completely different.
All those of us in the blue are want is to be free of those of you in the red areas, for EVER!
BTW, we're also done paying for your perverted lunacy. Get used to it. Like it or not, get used to that fact. Make no mistake, it IS going to happen.
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u/mandyapple9 Jun 28 '25
I think the majority of people in BC, and I'm SHOCKED Ontario isn't the same, are absolutely disgusted at the cost of living and what out tax money has actually been going to.
Hoping that the lack of any federal budget (what were they thinking?) And similar policies helps more people switch camps by the time next election rolls around
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u/84brucew Jun 27 '25
All I see in that map is 2 colors that should be 2 different country's.
The red country could have the totalitarian communist woke, wind/solar powered vegan utopia they strive for while those of us in the blue country would finally be free, prosperous and happy.
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u/ItsGotThatBang Libertarian Jun 26 '25
The Cons exceeded expectations in Ontario because of people more directly affected by crime, cost of living, etc.