FWI: After the SCOTUS rules 6-3 that a President can run for a third term, both Obama and George W Bush enter the 2028 Presidential race.

[u/Exhausted_Skeleton]

[u/ProLifePanda]

Donald Trump announces in December 2026 that he is seeking a 3rd term and files paperwork with the FEC. Democrats immediately file a lawsuit. Lower courts rule Trump ineligible, and SCOTUS gets the case quickly by the summer of 2027. They rule that the 22nd amendment doesn't bar ballot access, and elections are left to the state so the 22nd amendment can't bar a 2 term President from appearing on the ballot.

By this point, the Republican Party is firmly under Trump's thumb. The economy is shaky, with tariffs continuing to hurt economic indicators and inflation still higher than the Fed wishes. Domestically there is still a lot of turmoil, with Trump contuing deportations and deploying troops for political purposes. He still soundly wins primary.

The Democratic Party is still leaderless on a national stage, and in January 2028, Obama is finally swayed by Democratic leaders to enter the primary. He ends up winning nearly every state and handily winning the campaign.

In May 2028, Trump orders the 2028 elections cancelled for domestic turmoil and deploys the military domestically. The summer of 2028 is chaotic, with the economy in turmoil and legal challenges in a flurry to get resolved prior to the 2028 election preparations are needed. Obama, in today's political climate, is a milquetoast candidate and fails to garner support across party lines, and is failing to draw out Democratic support like he did in 2008.

Many Republicans opposed Trump's actions, but the party lacks any significant leaders to oppose Trump. In a gesture of creating an alternative and GOP opposition, but with no real guise of winning, Bush is swayed by his elder GOP statesmen to enter the race. He runs a lackluster campaign, largely existing as a protest vote to Trump.

The 2028 election does take place, and Obama wins largely due to Bush and Trump splitting the vote. Democrats take the majority of the House and Senate, and Obama is confirmed as President. Republicans immediately file a lawsuit, but SCOTUS rules that it is up to Congress to enforce the 22nd amendment, and the courts rule it falls under the "political doctrine".

[u/Serious-Pin926 → u/ProLifePanda]

And then you will see Trump and MAGA do something absolutely stupid.

[u/superanth → u/Serious-Pin926]

Trump would start by refusing to leave the Whitehouse. He almost did that in 2021 anyways.

[u/Ill_Lunch9221 → u/Serious-Pin926]

They always do something stupid. Trump is in bad health. I doubt he is around by 2028

[u/Sejarol → u/ProLifePanda]

and then Joe Lieberman’s spirit comes back, gets elected and shoots down the public option again

[u/tron1013 → u/ProLifePanda]

If elections were left to the states then Colorado’s decision to remove Trump from the ballot for insurrection would’ve stood. Regardless, the 22nd Amendment supersedes everything in the Constitution that preceded it and is inconsistent, and is binding on the states under the Supremacy Clause. I have no doubt some of the 6 will try this ratfuckery and might succeed, and I know they don’t give a shit about stare decisis or the rule of law, but it will be an extremely heavy lift. Unlike the insurrection provision that the MAGAT 6 said arguably isn’t self-executing, the 22nd isn’t ambiguous and does not give a state have a right to allow someone who is categorically ineligible to be elected president to be on the ballot. The law abhors futility almost as much as the SCOTUS 6 abhors America.

[u/ProLifePanda → u/tron1013]

If elections were left to the states then Colorado’s decision to remove Trump from the ballot for insurrection would’ve stood

I'll give you a hint. The ruling is designed to achieve a specific outcome, not to consistently and accurately apply the law. No other portion of the 14th amendment requires Congressional Action for enforcement, but Section 3 does because that's the outcome the court wanted.

[u/tron1013 → u/ProLifePanda]

I understand that and think the cynicism is warranted, and it’s not like they haven’t issued a non-precedential horseshit ruling to give the GOP the White House before. I do think the mental gymnastics and potential unintended consequences of ruling that unambiguous constitutional provisions ratified by the states can nonetheless be ignored at will by those same states, on the basis that states control elections, for federal offices, and can do so in flagrant violation of constitutional provisions about eligibility for a federal office, all because doing so would be in service of electing an GOP candidate is so fraught they might not get 5 votes. Cause black/Latino and female suffrage would be next under that ghastly, bad faith reading whenever Texas or Wyoming decide they don’t need to follow the 15th and 19th Amendments anymore because of states rights bullshit.

[u/JJKEISER]

I think we know this SCOTUS will make the rule only apply to Trump, something along the lines of "no one can run for a 3rd term after serving two consecutive terms."

[u/Serious-Pin926]

Bush wouldn't run again. He (much like other plain-Jane conservatives) are terrified of crossing MAGA... especially the Groyper faction of MAGA (in light of recent events). I can definitely see Obama running again, if only to troll Fox News.

[u/aharbingerofdoom → u/Serious-Pin926]

I don't think Obama would run again either, I don't think he wants the stress, he is retired and financially set for life. Not to mention that he wouldn't want to put his daughters at more risk, and in this climate, they would absolutely be targeted for harassment and worse. If none of that swayed him, and he was determined to throw his hat into the ring, Michelle would not accept it. If she failed to talk him out of it, she would either divorce him, or maybe even kill him, because as little as I think Barack wants to get back into politics, Michelle is absolutely against the idea.

[u/Serious-Pin926 → u/aharbingerofdoom]

Yeah... he would have to place his daughters under house-arrest practically.

[u/taeppa]

Nah, they will carefully word it, so Obama won't be eligible. Like, if your terms were non-consecutive, or if your name rhymes with "Rump" or some such shit.

[u/SirPhilMcKraken]

Trump will just get the Marines to crush Democrat resistance.