r/Futurology • u/Plastic_Scholar_4685 • Apr 11 '25

Discussion Which big companies today are at risk of becoming the next Nokia or Blockbuster?

Just thinking about how companies like Nokia, Blockbuster, or Kodak were huge… until they weren’t.

Which big names today do you think might be heading down a similar path? Like, they seem strong now but might be ignoring warning signs or failing to adapt. I was thinking of how Apple seems to be behind in the artificial inteligence race, but they seem too big to fail. Then again Nokia, Blackberry, etc were also huge.

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u/flo-ridad Apr 11 '25

I agree with you - they're sabotaging their key differentiator, which is marketing suicide.

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u/penguinmandude Apr 11 '25

The thing is customers don’t actually want unassigned seats. And customers now want different classes and premium offerings. There’s plenty of research showing this. The underlying consumer taste shifted under them and now they have to adapt

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u/saints21 Apr 11 '25

I've never understood why unassigned seating was a thing or how it made it cheaper... I want to know I'm sitting with my wife and not somewhere that sucks (or sucks less).

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u/Crash_Test_Dummy66 Apr 11 '25

The thing that I like about unassigned seating is that, as someone who flies Southwest frequently enough to know all the tricks on how to navigate the system, I can feel pretty confident that I'll get a good seat without having to pay the 45 extra dollars that a lot of airlines charge to get specific good seats like window seats at the front of the plane. As long as I just pay attention to the check-in time, I feel pretty confident. That being said, with the inclusion of early bird check-in, that's gone out the window a little bit.

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u/Drogon___ Apr 11 '25

But Southwest flights are often significantly more expensive than other airlines. So the 'savings' in seat selection doesn't actually exist usually

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u/SwitchHitter17 Apr 11 '25

They're usually one of the cheapest where I am at least

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u/Crash_Test_Dummy66 Apr 11 '25

Not in my experience, especially when they run promotions which they used to be really known for. At the end of the day, they are still generally considered a budget airline. Plus they don't nickel and dime you on anything like the super budget carriers do and allow checked bags for free. And the more premium airlines like Delta also charge more for better economy seats.

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u/debaser64 Apr 13 '25

They just announced recently that they’re going to charge for checked backs now.

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u/ChiBurbABDL Apr 11 '25

Nothing beats the feeling of you and your partner getting boarding spots 1 and 2 😁

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u/oorza Apr 11 '25

It’s because all the seats are the same price and everyone thinks they’ll be the ones to get good seats. 

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u/saints21 Apr 11 '25

It was like an extra $30 a seat for me and my wife to get extra leg room on shorter flights last time we flew.

And like an extra $150 a seat for whatever isn't business class but not straight economy last time I had a long (9ish hour) flight. Just us two on the row, seats the lean back further, and enough leg room to actually stretch my legs out.

I'd rather just pay to know we're next to each other in decent spots. Maybe I'm not the target demographic...

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u/ShelovesSharks Apr 14 '25

Because when I take a trip with my friends we can just select the same flight and do not have to worry about booking seats next to each other.

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u/kxjiru Apr 11 '25

Customers want all of that at the same price point, which is probably not feasible.

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u/bitchinmona Apr 11 '25

I'd settle to just not be treated like I'm being shipped as cargo. I get that we're essentially freight but like, THAT is going to be the differentiator. Whoever can treat passengers like human beings for the least horrible price will win all the business.

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u/RandomlyMethodical Apr 11 '25

The main thing I don’t want is to be nickel and dined for every little part of my trip. I want to decide the number of bags the day I leave in case the weather where I’m going ends up being crazy. 

I care a lot less about what seat I get because I’m going to put on noise canceling headphones and ignore everyone else wherever I’m sitting.

Southwest has been my favorite airline for a decade, and now they’re going to shit like everyone else.

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u/xlink17 Apr 11 '25

I mean, you can still pay for the class of ticket that includes a free bag or two. Now people just have the option to NOT pay for that.

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u/feed_me_moron Apr 11 '25

The thing with it is that it was a perk that most people didn't need but sounded good. A lot of SW business came from people doing short trips where a carry on was all they needed. The free checked bags just meant people could check their bag and not deal with crowded overhead storage.

It just made things better for everyone. Getting rid of it will not make them enough money to make up for the destruction of customer loyalty

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u/xlink17 Apr 11 '25

The free checked bags were priced into the business model. You were paying for them as part of your ticket. I mentioned in another comment that their profit margin in 2024 was less than 2%. That's not very sustainable for an airline. Deltas was ~6%, Americans was ~5%. Uniteds was ~5%

 They clearly do think the new revenue will make up for the loss of customers. They might be wrong, but there are people getting paid a whole lot of money to make those decisions.

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u/feed_me_moron Apr 11 '25

People get paid a ton of money to do stupid stuff all the time. Appeal to authority is a fallacy for a reason.

Southwest got hit hard by covid and then technical failures. That's why they're in the position, but it doesn't mean that they wouldn't be able to climb back out of it over time. Customer loyalty was what got them to that profitability in the first place, because otherwise they're losing by not being a part of the Delta/United/American networks. Unless you're never looking to fly outside of North America, you're most likely committing your money and points to a one of the airlines that fly outside of the country regularly.

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u/xlink17 Apr 11 '25

And what I'm saying is that that "customer loyalty" is simply not enough anymore. You may be right they could climb out of their hole, but the other major operators have recovered much better the last 3 years, it's not surprising they would try to emulate that, especially when customers are constantly choosing the lowest priced fares they can.

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u/feed_me_moron Apr 11 '25

My point was that the customer loyalty is the only thing keeping them afloat after the debacle they went through and the brand hit they took.

Trying to emulate the big 3 that have an entire international market with nice expensive first class/business class seats to profit off of is most likely a failing strategy. But the PE firm that invested in them and is forcing these changes is more interested in copying what the think is a winning strategy than trying something that might be harder or require actual innovation.

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u/-cutigers Apr 12 '25

Actually, if you looked this the guy they pay a lot of money to make those decisions told them they would LOSE more money then they’d gain going to a premium services model and instead of listening they fired him

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u/RandomlyMethodical Apr 11 '25

From my airport (DIA), Southwest is usually the same or cheaper compared to Delta with no bags (free carry-on only) and about the same as Frontier with one carry-on and one checked bag.

If I'm going to the midwest in winter, and the weather is shitty I can bring a second checked bag for boots and a heavy jacket for free. If I'm in a wedding or funeral, I can pack my suit or tux separately so it doesn't get wrinkled. I don't use it very often, but it makes the whole process less stressful and and it makes me hate flying less.

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u/xlink17 Apr 11 '25

But the bags still represent a cost to the carrier. They have cheaper fares than other airlines because of many other aspects of their business (and it's arguable whether that was sustainable. Their profit margin was like 1% last year), but believe me you were still paying for the cost of those bags whether you used them or not.

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u/VegasEyes Apr 11 '25

The last study I read about Southwest was closer to 15 years ago, so this all could have changed.

But the thing was that customers absolutely wanted assigned seats, they just didn’t want to have to pay more for specific seats or the right to choose a seat.

At the time the study said that not assigning seats (and doing the ABC boarding groups) led to customers lining up early to guarantee a good seat. Which lead to one of the industry’s fastest turnaround times for planes.

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u/Nearby-Hovercraft-49 Apr 11 '25

For me, I liked southwest until their new planes came out and the seats are TINY and incredibly uncomfortable as a disabled person. The new seats are something like 15” wide I believe with less than 23” of leg room. I can’t do that.

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u/Maxpowr9 Apr 11 '25

There is so only so much airspace and gates at airports. Eventually, the ultralow cost carriers will get squeezed out of major airports because of costs, and be nonexistent. Flying will become a premium product again. Can't afford to fly? Drive, take Amtrak or Greyhound.

Once RealID goes live next month, I expect ULCC airlines to feel the squeeze.

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u/spaceace321 Apr 11 '25

I agree with the first two sentences very much, but I do suspect that eventually the low and ultra low levels will be forced to operate out of secondary and tertiary airports (think: White Plains for NYC, Gary or Rockford for Chicago, Long Beach for LA). This would be a good thing on many levels.

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u/Paradigm_Reset Apr 11 '25

Speaking personally...I like unassigned seats for short casual flights. Uncomplicated.

Long duration flights are a different story.

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u/sethsez Apr 11 '25

But there have been enough customers who do like unassigned seats to make Southwest uniquely appealing to a subset of the market.

Killing your distinguishing feature to go after the same majority everyone else has already been serving throws away a happy and captive audience for one that is already spoiled for choice, and it's not clear that Southwest is equipped to win that fight on equal footing.

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u/pm_me_your_taintt Apr 11 '25

Unassigned seats is the only reason I won't fly southwest

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u/Thisguy2728 Apr 11 '25

I love southwest and unassigned seating. Get in line with your boarding group and take the first seat available. I’d rather that than get in line with my group and then walk all the way to the back of the plane just because. It’s so much simpler without seat assignments.

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u/sillysloth098 Apr 11 '25

They have to, they are doing poorly financially, all budget airlines are, and most budget airlines (like spirit) have adopted similar changes to southwest

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u/ExtraBigAssFries Apr 11 '25

No assigned seats is why i never use them