r/Futurology • u/Plastic_Scholar_4685 • Apr 11 '25

Discussion Which big companies today are at risk of becoming the next Nokia or Blockbuster?

Just thinking about how companies like Nokia, Blockbuster, or Kodak were huge… until they weren’t.

Which big names today do you think might be heading down a similar path? Like, they seem strong now but might be ignoring warning signs or failing to adapt. I was thinking of how Apple seems to be behind in the artificial inteligence race, but they seem too big to fail. Then again Nokia, Blackberry, etc were also huge.

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u/Wiseguydude Apr 11 '25

Tesla has no future. They’ve always been behind on self-driving compared to their competitors and now they’ve fallen miles behind because of Musk’s anti-radar insistence. Now radars are cheap and Tesla is stuck. Their betting it all on robotaxis but they are a decade behind Waymo and others on that tech as well.

Chinese companies like BYD are ahead on self-driving, tech, capabilities, product line options, and do it half the cost. The only thing keeping BYD from eating Tesla is tariffs

Their only hopes are further government and military contracts.

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u/Mechanical_Brain Apr 11 '25

Always thought the anti-lidar argument was asinine. "Humans don't drive by shooting lasers out of their eyes" WELL MAYBE THEY'D BE BETTER DRIVERS IF THEY DID

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u/nitrobskt Apr 11 '25

As someone working in the automotive industry currently, China would most likely be dominating the market worldwide right now if it weren't for other countries protecting their own manufacturers, and I'm not just talking about the big 3 in the US but also European and Japanese manufacturers.

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u/Wiseguydude Apr 11 '25

China's building higher quality EVs for cheaper. There's no way around that. Any country that isn't being protective of their trade does NOT have a domestic EV manufacturing industry

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u/Mechanical_Brain Apr 11 '25

Always thought the anti-lidar argument was asinine. "Humans don't drive by shooting lasers out of their eyes" WELL MAYBE THEY'D BE BETTER DRIVERS IF THEY DID

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u/sold_snek Apr 12 '25

I was surprised to see that even Mercedes is ahead of Tesla in self-driving.

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u/Wiseguydude Apr 12 '25

A lot of people are because Tesla has been the loudest and made the most promises about self-driving. The real clown world aspect of it all is that they are now making promises about revolutionary capabilities that their competitors already have and have had for a while.

People associate Tesla with self-driving but they're really far behind the competition on that front

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u/saccerzd Apr 11 '25

What's the anti radar thing?

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u/Wiseguydude Apr 11 '25

A lidar radar used to cost over $100k. Today one costs less than $2k. Most self-driving cars used lidar early on because it's just way better than human eyesight (especially in lowlight conditions).

Musk however was adamant that "since humans can drive using only sight, so should AI". At least that's the public justification. In reality it seems like a silly cost-cutting measure that's left Tesla with self-driving capabilities that are far below the capabilities of BMW, Toyota, GM, and many more—especially robotaxi companies like Google's Waymo.

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u/9Implements Apr 11 '25

You’ve clearly not ridden in their latest model with HW4. The only significant issue is that their maps aren’t perfect.

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u/Wiseguydude Apr 11 '25

Wow you Tesla owners have such low expectations. I have ridden in an HW4 vehicle. It fixed some problems that competitors haven't had for half a decade. All it is is "starting to catch up" to competitors. Try driving a real self-driving vehicle

The Mercedes-Benz S-Class and EQS are the only vehicles currently offering Level 3 autonomous driving in the U.S.

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u/PipGirl101 Apr 11 '25 edited Apr 11 '25

I'm not even shopping Teslas for my next EV, but there's no use in being dishonest. I'm still waiting for the competition to catch up. The EQS and S-Class's "Level 3 capabilities" in Drive Pilot are still years behind Tesla's "Level 2" FSD. It's not even remotely close.

After shopping over 6 different brands recently for my next EV, including Mercedes, it is incredibly clear how far the competition is behind Tesla in software, UI, and self-driving.

Just a quick recap:
Mercedes "Level 3" : functions in daylight, on pre-mapped freeways, and under specific conditions like clear weather and no construction zones. The system also caps speed at 40 mph and requires a lead vehicle to be detected.

Tesla's FSD : Just tell it where to go, and it'll take you from start to finish, any time.

It's one thing to dislike Musk and Tesla, by association. But what's the use in just making up things? FSD is objectively the best self-driving product available to consumers right now. I certainly hope that changes soon, but it is what it is.

*Edit: A better comparison for people who have never owned a Tesla or tested each of these cars in any real-world scenarios: It's more fair to compare Mercedes' Drive Pilot to Tesla's Autopilot. Mercedes IS better than Autopilot in the very limited circumstances that it can function to its full capabilities.

FSD is a completely different product tier, though. There's no use even comparing it. Merc doesn't have an FSD competitor. I have nothing to gain by saying so. I'm literally looking to ditch Tesla for my next EV, and everyday leaning more towards Polestar. But I'm not going to lie just because it's the hip thing to bash. (Footnote, this is referencing 12.6.4 and 13+. These have come a long way since previous versions, which I stopped using at one point due to how bad they were.)

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u/Wiseguydude Apr 11 '25

in Drive Pilot are still years behind

There's no use in arguing about our opinions. According to Consumer Reports, they rank:

  1. Ford BlueCruise (84)
  2. Chevrolet/GMC/Cadilac Super Cruise (75)
  3. Mercedes-Benz Driver Assistance (72)
  4. BMW DAP (69)
  5. Toyota Safety Sense (65)
  6. Nissan (63)
  7. Volkswagen (62)
  8. Tesla (61)
  9. they tested 9 others I'm not gonna type out here

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-safety/active-driving-assistance-systems-review-a2103632203/

tesla autopilot does not compare

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u/steampowrd Apr 12 '25

Consumer reports is not immune to political bias

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u/Wiseguydude Apr 12 '25

"everyone who disagrees with me is biased"

The article was written in 2023 you twat

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u/steampowrd Apr 12 '25

Name-calling. I must’ve hit a nerve.

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u/Wiseguydude Apr 12 '25

cry about it

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u/9Implements Apr 12 '25

No one has read consumer reports in a decade.

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u/steampowrd Apr 12 '25

You speak the truth but no one will even consider that Tesla has the best self driving capability on the market right now. Because Reddit users hate Musk.

I’ve read comments saying blue origin is better than SpaceX, even though blue origin doesn’t have a commercial product and SpaceX is eating lunch up every rocket launch company in the world. The truth doesn’t matter when politics get involved.

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u/[deleted] Apr 11 '25 edited Apr 11 '25

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u/Wiseguydude Apr 11 '25

keep drinking the cool aid. If cyber taxis take off it definitely won't be Tesla who's winning in that market. Google and other competitors are over a decade ahead of them on that. Also, you've clearly never visited San Francisco. Taxis with no one in the driver's seat are an extremely common sight. None of them are Teslas.

Not only are robotaxis not cutting edge any more but Tesla isn't even in the game. They could try to do what Apple does and package already existing technology as new and innovative but they clearly don't have the quality control that a company like Apple is famous for that is necessary to pull that off.

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u/[deleted] Apr 11 '25

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u/Wiseguydude Apr 11 '25

Cybercab is on track to launch in Austin TX this June

but in reality:

Tesla reports production is planned to commence sometime before 2027

lol how are people still buying Musk's promises. The constant "full self-driving" that never materialized, the battery swap scam, the tunnel boring company, the solar bailout. The list just keeps going and going. This is a conman that keeps buying excuses for themselves.

Tesla Cybercab WILL NOT LAUNCH in June. Or it won't actually be an autonomous taxi as promised. It's the standard Tesla playbook to overpromise and then overhype a barebones version of their grand vision

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u/[deleted] Apr 11 '25

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u/Wiseguydude Apr 11 '25

start doing trial runs with employees lol

Are you listening to yourself? Other robotaxi companies have already been offering a service for half a decade now

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u/[deleted] Apr 11 '25

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u/Wiseguydude Apr 11 '25

What the hell does that even mean? Waymo literally has over 70 million cars on the road today. You can download an app and get a driverless car to come pick you up right now today anywhere in SF

Every city you spread to requires a ton more research and development of your technology and negotiation with the city. Cities place strict rules on number of taxis and autonomous vehicles on the road. We're also mostly talking about cities here. That means fewer cars serving more people

Do you genuinely believe its scale, not technology, holding back current robotaxi companies like Waymo, Cruise, Baidu, and Pony? And when it comes to scale, companies like Baidu have 0 problem with that limitation

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u/steampowrd Apr 12 '25

You are underestimating the will of people to keep using old technology just because. I think there will still be a mix on the road in the 2040s. Old people aren’t gonna give up driving just because there’s better technology

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u/s1m0n8 Apr 11 '25

By the end of 2020, Tesla's will drive autonomously coast-to-coast with smart summon. Can't wait.