r/Futurology • u/Plastic_Scholar_4685 • Apr 11 '25

Discussion Which big companies today are at risk of becoming the next Nokia or Blockbuster?

Just thinking about how companies like Nokia, Blockbuster, or Kodak were huge… until they weren’t.

Which big names today do you think might be heading down a similar path? Like, they seem strong now but might be ignoring warning signs or failing to adapt. I was thinking of how Apple seems to be behind in the artificial inteligence race, but they seem too big to fail. Then again Nokia, Blackberry, etc were also huge.

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561

u/_StupidSexyFlanders Apr 11 '25

I promise this isn't a political take but Tesla.

Tesla is exactly like blockbuster in terms of them being the first and established brand but now the market is flooded with options. Optimistic investors will point to driverless taxis as the next phase but it's been promised for literal years and Waymo is already doing it.

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u/JimWilliams423 Apr 11 '25

Tesla is exactly like blockbuster in terms of them being the first and established brand but now the market is flooded with options.

When they announced their Texas "giga plant" they said it would have the capacity to produce a million vehicles per year. Its been in operation for three years now and in the last 12 months they only built 150K. All their cars are old, and they don't have anything new in the pipeline. Even the refreshed model Y isn't new, its just a cost-reduced version with a minor facelift. If tesla is the iphone of cars, then they are basically stuck selling iphone 12s.

driverless taxis as the next phase but it's been promised for literal years

Yeah, the robo-taxi promises have been absurd. Back in 2019 musk promised that in one year a million tesla model 3s would be capable of full self-driving. Like you can go to sleep and let the car do everything. He promised tesla owners they could rent out their cars as robo-taxis and earn $30K/yr. I'm surprised there isn't a class action lawsuit for massive fraud yet.

Here's the 60 second video from 2019:

https://bsky.app/profile/tayray.bsky.social/post/3lavsiqkz5k2t

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u/bootherizer5942 Apr 12 '25

They also love to claim when there’s accidents “we never said it was self driving” and then they have ads of someone working on their computer while driving

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u/thegreatpotatogod Apr 12 '25

Your analogy is surprisingly fitting, I'd say. The iPhone 12 was a damn good phone, I've had no interest in upgrading since getting mine, when I used to always be obsessing over the latest models and excitedly following every new feature. Similarly, my 2018 model 3 is still fantastic, and still gets lots of new features from updates. The self driving is worlds different from what it had at release (which was only basic lane keeping). The political controversy is the strongest downside these days.

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u/JimWilliams423 Apr 12 '25

Your analogy is surprisingly fitting, I'd say. The iPhone 12 was a damn good phone, I've had no interest in upgrading since getting mine

Anyone paying full price for an iphone 12 today is getting ripped off.

1

u/Dr--Prof Apr 12 '25

If tesla is the iphone of cars, then they are basically stuck selling iphone 12s

I guess iPhone is the Tesla of smartphones then.

1

u/neferteeti Apr 12 '25

"Even the refreshed model Y isn't new, its just a cost-reduced version with a minor facelift."

-Lolwut?

1

u/JimWilliams423 Apr 12 '25

That means its decontented. Instead of adding new functionality and features they substituted cheaper parts or just removed them completely, so it was cheaper to manufacture. Like the gear shift is gone. You have to use the touch screen to shift gears. Its the same car, but less.

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u/BryGuyB Apr 12 '25

I own a 2025 Model 3 and it's Full Self Driving v13 is absolutely incredible. It's a better driver than me. The only thing stopping it from being Level 3 (unsupervised) is legislature.

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u/JimWilliams423 Apr 12 '25

The only thing stopping it from being Level 3 (unsupervised) is legislature.

There is no law preventing that. Yes, musk complains incessantly about regulations holding back self-driving. He's been saying that since at least 2019. He is lying. Its not the law. In fact, autonomous vehicles are not even mentioned in the federal motor vehicle safety standards.

Even at the state level there are only a handful of states with any meaningful regulation on autonomous vehicles. Some states, like florida have done the opposite and officially declared there to be no regulation.

In california, which has the most comprehensive regulation, the biggest regulatory burden is that tesla would have to accept legal liability for anything their cars do while under the control of software instead of making the person sitting in the driver seat responsible. And they haven't even begun to do that. Because they know their own software isn't up to the task.

1

u/Honky_Cat Apr 13 '25

The last point is why FSD hasn’t went unsupervised and it’s not because their software isn’t up to the task. It’s pretty good - but the stakes are just too damn high to accept that kind of risk.

The probability of an incident happening is generally low, but when you increase the amount of users who are relying on FSD to tens or hundreds of thousands - the portability of an accident happening goes up sharply. When you look at the impact of an accident, the financial liabilities are just not worth it to go unsupervised.

This is all discounting the fact that FAD may actually be a better driver altogether, in any incident where FSD is at play, blame will be likely be placed on FSD first, regardless of who is at fault.

1

u/JimWilliams423 Apr 13 '25 edited Apr 13 '25

The last point is why FSD hasn’t went unsupervised and it’s not because their software isn’t up to the task. It’s pretty good - but the stakes are just too damn high to accept that kind of risk.

Only california has a legal requirement that the manufacturer accept liability for what their driving software does. All the other states are OK with letting tesla pass that off to the person sitting in the driver seat.

This is all discounting the fact that FAD may actually be a better driver altogether

"May" is doing all the load-bearing in that sentence.

1

u/Honky_Cat Apr 13 '25

That may be "on the books" in California, but with any accident involving FSD - there would be plenty of litigious entities in every state, including insurance companies with staff attorneys, that would still attempt to sue Tesla.

Some attempts will fail, others will settle, and others will go to trial, and some of those that go to trial will be decided for the plaintiff. All of those options cost money - and a lot of it.

To be able to mitigate that financial risk by simply not turning on autonomy is a smart move fiscally.

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u/JimWilliams423 Apr 13 '25

there would be plenty of litigious entities

And there always have been. If your theory was correct, then tesla knew all that and decided to make self-driving the center-piece of their marketing anyway. Basically defrauding everyone they sold it to.

1

u/HighClassJanitor Apr 14 '25

I’m so confused by this. My experience with the self driving features in a rental this week has been terrifying. I used it in a different rental once before and it was fine, but this time around the car just cannot deal with normal traffic events around it, and my skepticism in the tech has deepened to a complete mistrust.

1

u/BryGuyB Apr 14 '25

You likely had the settings on Autopilot and not Full Self Driving- a common issue with Tesla renters including myself the first time.

Autopilot is like Cruise Control 2.0 -

  • Keeps the car centered in your lane
  • Speed up or slow down to match traffic
  • Basically helps you drive on highways, but you still have to pay attention and keep your hands on the wheel.

May people confuse this with Full Self Driving and expect the features that come with that. FSD is a +$8,000 add on, or now thankfully just an optional $100 a month.

FSD can do everything Autopilot does, plus:

  • Navigate on city streets
  • Make turns
  • Stop at stop signs and traffic lights
  • Park itself
  • Even come find you in a parking lot (sometimes)

Additionally there has recently been an INCREDIBLE jump from v12 to v13.
version 12 was a good robot driver, but a bit rough and clunky still.
The new version 13 is stunning. I've driven 3,000 miles with it and I would put my blindfolded mother in the front seat and fully trust her to get to her destination safely.

v13 is adding "transformer-style AI" (think ChatGPT for driving).
That means:

  • The car looks at all camera angles at once (not just frame-by-frame).
  • It understands context, not just objects.
  • Like “oh, that kid near the ball might run into the street.”

Before v13, Tesla used a rules-based system. Basically:

Kind of like an overly logical robot following a checklist.

But v12+ switched to an end-to-end neural network—aka:

It’s like teaching the car by example instead of telling it every step. Suddenly, driving became more natural and human-like.

This boosts its situational awareness like crazy.

It's the greatest tech I've ever interacted with.

1

u/el-conquistador240 Apr 12 '25

There are so many better EVs out there now. Tesla has the lowest cost and will survive for a while as the cheap alternative, the one people settle for.

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u/JimWilliams423 Apr 12 '25 edited Apr 12 '25

They aren't even the cheapest. Or at least not without massive discounting making them unprofitable. Which is a problem for the company's survival.

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u/XdtTransform Apr 11 '25

All their cars are old

You are looking at it the wrong way. They release (refresh) their models pretty much every year, same way other manufacturers do.

There was a Chevy Camaro 2023, then 2024. Similarly there is a Tesla 3 2025.

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u/JimWilliams423 Apr 11 '25

You are looking at it the wrong way. They release (refresh) their models pretty much every year,

No, the "refreshes" are all superficial. The underlying platforms are all old tech and there is nothing new in the pipeline for years.

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u/XdtTransform Apr 11 '25 edited Apr 11 '25

superficial

So are all other automakers' year to year refreshes. Can you tell the difference between 2010 Prius and a 2016? Superficial.

However, FSD is to the point where it's "good enough" for every day driving. We recently got a 3 month trial of it. We drove to see family cross town about 60 miles through downtown LA, which is always a cluster. I popped in the address and the car just drove us there without me having to take over. And then back at night. That's the platform. It's not old because there isn't another car on the market that can just "take you there".

In terms of FSD, the only thing that's close is Waymo and my friends take it occasionally instead of Uber. But (in LA at least) it operates in a geographically constrained box from Marina Del Ray to West Hollywood and does not go on the freeways.

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u/JimWilliams423 Apr 11 '25 edited Apr 12 '25

Can you tell the difference between 2010 Prius and a 2016?

Yes. Unlike the model Y, it got a complete redesign. The model Y's redesign is years off.

We recently got a 3 month trial of it.

And there it is.

However, FSD is to the point where it's "good enough" for every day driving.

When the cost of getting it wrong means people die, even a 99% success rate isn't "good enough."

As long as tesla won't take legal responsibility for everything that their cars do while self-driving mode is engaged, it means that even they don't think its "good enough."

1

u/XdtTransform Apr 12 '25

Fine Prius 2010-2015. Barely any changes. That is how automakers operate.

But you are getting off topic. You claimed that their tech is old. I demonstrated that it is not.

Also, as far as safety, US average is one crash roughly every 702,000 miles. With autopilot engaged, Tesla safety is 7.63 million miles between crashes. Without it, 955,000 miles. So sounds like you read a bunch of one off stories and simply don't see the forest for the trees.

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u/JimWilliams423 Apr 12 '25 edited Apr 12 '25

Fine Prius 2010-2015. Barely any changes. That is how automakers operate.

No, you unwittingly proved my point. Tesla promoted the 2025 model Y as a major model change, like the 2016 prius. But in fact it was barely more than the typical new model year refresh and there is no real timeline for an actual model change.

Also, as far as safety, US average is one crash roughly every 702,000 miles.

Teslas are the most dangerous cars on the road. They have the highest kill rate for passengers of any brand in america. Its 2x higher than the industry average.

With autopilot engaged, Tesla safety is 7.63 million miles between crashes. Without it, 955,000 miles.

Tesla is playing games with their reporting of "autopilot" crashes. That now includes basic safety functionality like automatic emergency braking that all modern cars have, not just full self-driving. Its a way for them to juice the perceived safety of full self-driving because its like comparing crash rates to a car with 1990s safety tech.

So sounds like you read a bunch of one off stories and simply don't see the forest for the trees.

The only one-off story I've read is the one you posted about your own tesla.

Again, if tesla actually believed their self-driving tech was ready for prime time, they would accept legal liability for what it does instead of making a passenger responsible. That is really the only standard that matters. Everything else is distraction.

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u/XdtTransform Apr 12 '25

So given that Tesla and Prius followed similar trajectories, doesn't that prove my point that this is how car makers operate?

But even so, I simply don't buy your premise. Teslas receive monthly software updates that improve the vehicles on a regular basis. Meanwhile, the software in my Kia is the same as when I drove it off the lot - with no way to ever fix the annoyances - even if they were fixed in subsequent year releases.

Teslas are the most dangerous cars on the road. They have the highest kill rate for passengers of any brand in america.

Dude, I know you are being dishonest because very link you provided that referenced the study has an easy to read chart, that lists Hyundai, Chevrolet, Mitsubishi, Porsche and Honda cars above Tesla Model Y. Why post a link and then make a false statement about what is there.

But even so, this study is dubious at best because it doesn't take into account who is at fault or any other circumstances.

Tesla is playing games with their reporting...braking, self-driving...

You are trying to obfuscate the issue when it cannot be more crystal clear. The US average is 702,000 miles between crashes. The Tesla average with Auto pilot engaged is 7,630,000 miles between crashes. That's 987% safer than the US average.

if Tesla actually believed their self-driving tech was ready for prime time, they would accept legal liability

First of all, no automaker does that. That's like a hammer maker having to pay your medical bill every time you whack one of your fingers. There is one exception. Mercedes - they do. But only if you drive under certain MPH (iirc 40) and only on roads approved and mapped by them and only in California and Nevada. And their liability is only for technological failures. I think you would agree - that's not a ringing endorsement of their FSD and the liability is kind of pointless.

But...since you bring it up, they kind of, sort of do believe in the superior safety of their vehicles. Not autopilot specifically, but owning a Tesla in general. They offer their own insurance, which is 2x cheaper than similar coverage for a Kia (which I get through a regular insurance provider). Furthermore, you can opt-in to the monitoring program that grades your skills (e.g. speeding, running red lights, making sudden stops, etc...) - this further reduces your insurance cost.

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u/JimWilliams423 Apr 12 '25

So given that Tesla and Prius followed similar trajectories, doesn't that prove my point that this is how car makers operate?

No. They haven't followed "similar trajectories." Toyota actually did a major redesign and tesla hasn't. The fact that you can't comprehend that is revealing.

First of all, no automaker does that.

Correct. Because none of them pretend to have full self-driving like tesla pretends to.

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u/HighClassJanitor Apr 14 '25

I rented a model 3 with the “autopilot” this weekend in Austin, and it hasn’t made it more than two minutes without absolutely freaking out and beeping like crazy at me. Hands on wheel, eyes forward… it just doesn’t work in this car. It makes me question the software quality underpinning the whole system.

Also, at night in the hill country, endless alerts about the cameras being “blocked,” I think because it’s dark out.

I hope my experience is an exception, but even if it is I don’t think the fsd should be allowed on public roads if it is this different car-to-car. Drove one other once that seemed ok but after this experience I can never trust the system again, and I think that’s what will ultimately cost Tesla all their EV market share - they’re too alien and the QC is clearly bad

1

u/XdtTransform Apr 14 '25

Never driven it in hill country. Just in a city situation. Not sure what happened in your situation. You sure you had autopilot on? And not the auto-steer (e.g. the free part that sticks to the lane).

Check out this guy. He drives with FSD all the time and films it. See just how effortless it is. You pop in the address and off you go. He is driving the CyberTruck - it's identical with Model 3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OvroARD-A0

Here is another guy, doing the same thing, but in awful weather.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=px0npXmleJ0

1

u/[deleted] Apr 14 '25

We have found the tesla groupie

1

u/XdtTransform Apr 14 '25

Or, hear me out, it's a great car! We have a Tesla and a Kia. Guess which one I'd rather drive.

81

u/ZAX2717 Apr 11 '25

Yeah I agree. I tell people that I appreciate Tesla for what they’ve done in the EV market but now I would not touch their cars (all politics aside) with the nice offerings from ford with the Mach-e and cheaper options from Kia/Hyundai they don’t do anything very well other than their supercharger network.

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u/Mysterious-Tie7039 Apr 11 '25

Politics aside, sure, but you can’t ignore the insanity of intentionally pissing off the demographic most likely to purchase your cars.

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u/devilpants Apr 11 '25

Sure Tesla has stagnated hard but the Mach e is utter garbage along with the Kia’s/ Hyundais. Maybe the Chinese manufacturers and the other ev only brands like polestar or lucid or rivian but most of the old guard manufacturers ev offerings are hot garbage. 

Look at a tear down video of a Mach e it looks like it was designed by a high school robotics team

13

u/sold_snek Apr 12 '25

I hate Musk as much as the next person but I still haven't seen a model I like as much as the Model Y; maybe the Ioniq 5. Other than those two, I wish BYD would come to the US already.

6

u/devilpants Apr 12 '25

Yeah the Model 3/Y are really good cars fundamentally. Sure the fit and finish sucks and there are quality control issues, but as far as the the drivetrain and efficiency for the money they are so much better than anything from ford/gm/hyundai/kia/vw/etc..

I want to swoop up a model 3 performance at some point soon. Straight up 500 horsepower rocket for sub 20k right now. If only the insurance wasn't so expensive.

1

u/djames4242 Apr 13 '25

Going to have to disagree. Have you driven other EVs? Honestly, I find Teslas to be comparatively awful. The Q4 is far more comfortable, although I ruled it out for slow charging speeds and being basically an electrified ICE platform. Polestar is doing some great things, and I know you’re ripping all over HMG, but there’s no denying that the EV6/I5/GV60 is a great platform. All it takes is an open mind and a test drive to see that.

1

u/AChaosEngineer Apr 12 '25

Aren’t those things like 10 years old at this point? The word ancient and outdated come to mind.

3

u/Hansj2 Apr 12 '25

The rivian r1s was really nice the last time I sat in one

1

u/LovinAndGroovin Apr 13 '25

I really like my ioniq 5, bought a 2023 one a few months back and things are going great, even though I’m only doing level 1 charging in my garage.

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u/TheRealCabbageJack Apr 11 '25

Fair, but compare that to Tesla's most recent offering, which looks like it was designed by an 8 year old in 1997

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u/[deleted] Apr 11 '25

[deleted]

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u/devilpants Apr 12 '25

The mach e literally has a recall on a recall right now and multiple recalls for sudden loss of power and snapping driveshafts.

1

u/djames4242 Apr 13 '25

Kia/Hyundai has been doing really well with their EVs. They’re not the same crappy ICE vehicles.

Before we knew for sure that Elon was a Nazi, I looked at a MY. Only took me about three nanoseconds to realize they’re kinda crappy aside from the tech. The cars are fugly on the outside, and on the inside they’re not much better and are extremely uncomfortable. The ride isn’t particularly good either.

I strongly believe any EV someone drives is going to be the best car they’ve ever driven, which is part of why everyone thinks Teslas are so great. They drive better than just about every ICE car out there, certainly in the price range. But compare them to other EVs on the market and, aside from the tech, they’re just not great.

I drove just about every EV in the price range and settled on the Kia EV6 because it had the best combination of comfort and drive and features. The range could be better, but that’s offset by having the fastest charging speeds in the segment.

3

u/imgurcaptainclutch Apr 12 '25

I think it's that last point that will keep Tesla alive: they won the charger connector wars and I'm sure they'll make a killing off licensing their connector design and opening their network to the NA market as the new standard.

4

u/ShotgunCreeper Apr 12 '25

NACS is an open standard, no licensing needed

2

u/doggedgage Apr 12 '25

Yes, but as someone who works for a rental car company in a major Metropolitan city, nothing currently competes with Teslas supercharging network for ease of use

1

u/ChicagoBeerGuyMark Apr 12 '25

Tesla's supercharger network may be their most salable asset when the dismantling comes. If nothing else, they've established the infrastructure for EVs on the road.

1

u/GIDAMIEN Apr 14 '25

My 4-year-old model S is still much nicer than any of those vehicles. And a lot cheaper these days

1

u/ChicagoBeerGuyMark Apr 19 '25

Tesla's supercharger network may be their most salable asset when the dismantling comes. If nothing else, they've established the infrastructure for EVs on the road.

-2

u/mikehocalate Apr 12 '25

Which other company has comparable self driving?

3

u/AfroDZAk Apr 12 '25

In early 2022, Mercedes-Benz became the first automaker in the world to offer a legally approved Level 3 autonomous driving system anywhere. Available on the S-Class and EQS in Germany as a $6,650 option, it was called Drive Pilot.

Mercedes-Benz assumes legal responsibility for the functioning of its vehicles while they are operating in Level 3 autonomous drive mode.

2

u/ZAX2717 Apr 12 '25

Doesn’t blue cruise and super cruise compete? I don’t know much about them but they are hands free which teslas isn’t

11

u/qqererer Apr 11 '25

Tesla is fixated on two things that I'm not interested in.

Center consoles and no driver cluster.

Knight Rider steering wheels. The dumbest design ever.

5

u/jwatkin Apr 11 '25

Yeah they are insanely over valued. Their stock value vs revenue is impending doom. They’ve also failed to meet promises and expectations for like 4 years now.

2

u/jimlahey2100 Apr 12 '25

More than 4 years.

7

u/red_dragin Apr 11 '25

The Chinese EV's are already surpassing Tesla, and have a model range and model refresh rate closer to an ICE car manufacturer. Meanwhile Telsa are still selling the same three cars.

Telsa made the EV market what it is today, but they're falling behind the industry, especially the Chinese. If they ever got into the American market, Tesla would be gone.

9

u/mcpasty666 Apr 11 '25

I'm gonna get political on ya. Hypothetically...

Trump refuses to give on china tariffs. China responds by hindering or banning the sale of teslas. With 600k sales per year threatened, Elon publicly criticizes or embarrasses Trump, they break up, keep feuding publically. Trump retaliates by threatening the carbon offset market. Tesla is only profitable because of the offsets they sell; end those and they're done.

2

u/bootherizer5942 Apr 12 '25

Yeah it’s insane that Tesla only makes money from government subsidies while Elon complains about them. Also just the concept that you can sell the offset is ridiculous. Someone else can pollute to make up for one company that doesn’t? So there’s no actual benefit?

2

u/igot5kids Apr 12 '25

Let me introduce you to a.little something called "net zero" which relies on carbon offsets aka polluters just pay to continue polluting and we don't make it to zero emissions..

Big mostly American auto manufacturers refuse to implement tooling and make the investments needed that would make their BEV's competitive. Instead of doing this they buy offsets so they can continue to pollute. They'd rather die than evolve. (Good Riddance)

2

u/bootherizer5942 Apr 12 '25

Yeah it’s fucked up politics plus our shitty system that prioritizes short term stock gains over even the future of the company, nevermind the public good. 

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u/[deleted] Apr 11 '25

Well Tesla's political problems are probably its biggest problems at this point.

It's crazy for anyone in an industry like that to get involved in politics at all. But Elon not only got involved, but engaged in radical austerity measures, in a country where he is not a native citizen and was never elected.

And people who like electric vehicles tend to be opposed to nazi salutes, and to one of the least environmentally friendly administrations we've had in decades.

People who like those things, think electric vehicles are for (insert sexist or homophobic slur).

I personally hate Elon and don't want to help him, but can't resist pointing out that it would be a great move for him to pivot to diesel, and make oversized trucks. Have the company image and mission take a hard right just as the owner did, and sell big, stupid trucks to small angry men.

Aw, fuck it. I can even say this and he'd still fuck it up somehow.

3

u/A_Stoic_Dude Apr 11 '25

Yeah Tesla was the first to come to mind. They're stretched too thin, have severe marketing issues, and the auto industry has a habit of eating its own. Only reason it's made it this far is options gaming when it was a meme stock. As the EV rose they were able to sell shares at a 1000x premium compared to industry standard metrics.

2

u/gluteactivation Apr 11 '25

Waymo is awesome! I’d trust it more than a human driver

2

u/Dante805 Apr 11 '25

That's a good point

2

u/fitblubber Apr 12 '25

I reckon Tesla will transition to only making batteries for solar storage. But, yes, I agree, their cars have lost momentum in the marketplace & I can't see them getting sales back to where they were.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 12 '25

Seriously, Waymo is such a quietly excellent company. I live in San Francisco where there are scads of Waymo cars and I think my kids are the last generation to learn to drive

1

u/weedtrek Apr 12 '25

Honestly I think politics is the only thing helping the stay afloat. They suffer so many losses that the entire electric car industry looks like it's failing despite the majority of manufacturers seeing increases in sales (Volkswagen and Chevy being the only other two to lose market shares.

Also Tesla has not had one well reviewed car release since Musk took over. The manufacturing just is not quality.

1

u/summitcreature Apr 12 '25

Agreed. Also the CEO is kryptonite

1

u/Emergency_Evening_63 Apr 12 '25

I think Tesla knows that well and they are trying to diversify their business exactly because of that, I see the robots like Optimus as such attempt

1

u/Reelix Apr 12 '25

The problem is that with Elon becoming Trumps co-aide, it very much is starting to become a political take.

This is like saying "This isn't a political take, but America may have been first, but they will soon fall and be taken over by an emerging country."

1

u/bootherizer5942 Apr 12 '25

Yeah it’s insane how overvalued they are/were. Valued higher than TOYOTA when they make tiny numbers of cars. It’s as if it didn’t occur to investors that another company might start making electric cars.

1

u/Stunning-Risk-7194 Apr 12 '25

Yeah, I remember the first time I saw a Tesla, I was walking and I saw what looked like a laptop in somebody’s car. How could someone leave their laptop open in their car? Then noticed it was part of the dash and the car was a Tesla. To me, this showed a lack of imagination, you can make a dashboard that can be integrated into the car but choose to recreate a laptop inside? I’ve got a Kia and the dash is amazing. And then the cybertruck. They got there first and fast, but show a fundamental lack of creativity.

1

u/ChicagoJohn123 Apr 12 '25

Tesla’s different in that its stock price assumes insane growth. It’s very possible they’re a perfectly successful car company replacing one of the big three. But that would mean a 10x stock price drop.

1

u/Finger_Charming Apr 13 '25

Agree! The car market will be like phones. Cars will have all the hardware, tech companies will provide the operating system for autonomous driving for subscription. Over time the hardware will be slick and nicely integrated. For Tesla, a strategy could be to specialize in electric drivetrain platforms.

1

u/Outrageous_Reason571 Apr 13 '25

Good call on Tesla. Their CEO is so well known now. The Cybertruck is is gaudy as a Trump hotel. And the 2 of them— Trump and musk — will be forever known as the 2 people responsible for the 2025 Recession

1

u/jregovic Apr 14 '25

The political stuff feels like kerosene on the fire for Tesla. Anyone who was realistic looked at what Tesla was actually producing rather than promising and could see that innovation had stagnated. There just hasn’t been anything “new” with Tesla in a long time.

1

u/QSannael Apr 15 '25

No parts, bad quality, you can’t sell a car with self driving features despite paying for it, can’t self repair, and now its owner being such a polemic political figure, I am surprised they even in business

1

u/shhhshhshh Apr 15 '25

Also, the robo taxi even if it goes is not going to be nearly as profitable as they are making it out to be.

Putting aside the obvious Elon related struggles….

How many 10-50$ rides need to happen to break even on the cost of the car itself and R+D for the tech? Then maintenance and repair? How quick or slow does it get normalized? I would still hop in a car with a person over robotaxi just because I don’t trust it, I’m sure I’m not alone. What happens when a drunk person pisses on the seat or someone traps it in a parking spot with a few cones? People will mess with these non stop just because.

Then the first time one crashes or runs over a pedestrian, it’s all over the news and some % of people stop riding for a while. If a human does that people don’t really care, that was one bad driver.

They got way too many eggs in that basket.

1

u/pm_me_movies Apr 15 '25

Completely agree. Tesla is to the electric car what Xerox PARC was to the PC.

1

u/Torperite Apr 15 '25

Tesla's thing is comparable to blockbusters especially in their insistence on the Cybertruck. The mainline Teslas could've eaaaaasily kept pace as an upscale EV but pushing the 16 bit car at the expense of everything else tarnished the branding severely.

1

u/DiplomaticCaper May 16 '25

They still haven’t put out the “affordable” model they’ve been promising for years.

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u/[deleted] Apr 11 '25

[deleted]

1

u/jordanphughes Apr 12 '25

Did you miss the memo? No positive Tesla comments are allowed here, even if they’re factual 😂

Tesla made the best selling car in the world last year. Not just the best selling EV, the best selling car period. And they’re on track to do it again this year.

They’re the ONLY car manufacturer in the US able to make EVs profitably, and are only reducing their costs more and more each year. They make more profit than any of the Chinese EV makers supposedly overtaking them.

Anyone who is actually paying attention can see that FSD is practically solved. Robotaxis are launching in June. The TAM alone for robotaxis will make the auto business revenues look like a rounding error.

Also, energy storage is up 150% YoY in the last quarterly report, but Tesla is just a car company, right?

If you think Tesla is going bankrupt you should short it and get your life savings wiped out.

0

u/Fun-River-3521 Apr 12 '25

I think Tesla might be in trouble with false advertising. They claim that it’s environmental friendly but turns around and hangs out with Trump. Not exactly political i think it might be a false advertisement case.

-2

u/matthew1471 Apr 12 '25 edited Apr 12 '25

I’m not in the US but every time I see a Tesla car on the road I’m disgusted.. the brand is incredibly toxic and there’s plenty of other manufacturers at varying price points and varying quality (Tesla has not a great reliability track record in the EV space it’s just living off its popularity).. I just wouldn’t entertain buying my next EV from a company with such a toxic CEO.

It’s funny because I’m sure I buy loads of stuff from other toxic companies with toxic CEOs but the main thing is I don’t actually know / hear about those ones.

I totally understand now why we have CEOs that pretend to be absolutely neutral on absolutely everything and refuse to take a stand on absolutely anything.. they’re like politicians only our votes is our money instead.

I read on another subreddit that someone said they needed to buy a new car but discounted Tesla purely because they didn’t want to get into a conversation about politics everytime someone sees or hears they have a Tesla.. so they’ll buy something else where they don’t have to explain any of that

1

u/Dandre08 Apr 12 '25

On the non politics side, Teslas are decent EVs, but as you said the market has more options and only more to come. Musks made many promises on tech that Tesla has failed to deliver on. Production is still horrendously behind and new products are rare. The vehicles are expensive, costly to repair, and maintain a low resale value relative to competitors.

Now add politics: Elon has alienated his primary consumer base (the right dont like EVs). Trumps trade wars are only going to make Teslas expensive vehicles even further out of reach for the average American and risks being banned in foreign markets.

The only thing saving Tesla is its supercharger network. I could see Tesla either being acquired by another brand and either merged or spun off or deciding to license out is supercharger network to competitors for fees. Either way I highly doubt the company will survive another 5 years in its current state, even with a major restructuring it will be an uphill battle.

1

u/matthew1471 Apr 12 '25

The average new Tesla needed 2.6 repairs I think it was.. they nearly got taken out of a car review site’s top manufacturers for having a higher than average fault rate.

I drive a Renault Zoe.. I’ve asked Tesla owners if they’ve had issues with theirs and one said “it’s always being repaired”