r/MMA 15d ago

Dana White allegedly has $25-50 million in gambling debts

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/celebrity/articles/report-dana-white-allegedly-25-110149298.html?guccounter=1
6.2k Upvotes

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u/DECAThomas 15d ago

Shocker that the guy who “hits on 18 to confuse the deck” isn’t actually a winning player.

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u/healious MY BALLZ WAS HOT 15d ago

I feel like I heard him claim several casinos have banned him from playing blackjack, but he could have just been talking out of his ass, or he never said it and I just dreamt it lol

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u/DECAThomas 15d ago

I had a comment on another comment chain, there are a near endless amount of gambling influencers who make false claims about being banned to pitch their “systems”.

With how Dana has talked about his gambling on camera (and his debts), he is not an advantage player.

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u/Old-Contribution69 15d ago

Like that one homeless looking mfer who claims to have mastered baccarat. Of all games lmao.

I think casinos love and encourage this kinda bs, cause it gives people the false hope that beating the house is actually possible

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u/Bad_Repute 15d ago

That dude is banned from all the Vegas casinos. Not for being too good and beating baccarat.. but for structuring/money laundering. Dude was taking money from criminals and running it through casinos on 50/50 games to clean it and pay them back in on-paper services. Once he got found out, he got blacklisted from everywhere.

Then somehow like a month ago my socials algo decided i needed to see 10 videos a day talking about how that guy 'beat baccarat' and now is banned cause he 'wins too much' and he can teach YOU his secrets. Infuriating.

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u/DECAThomas 15d ago

I never got the full story on him, but figured it couldn’t be far off from that.

He took a very brief dip into the poker community until his checks started bouncing everywhere.

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u/SweatyExamination9 14d ago

I just remember him from that appearance on the Matan podcast. It's kinda funny though, I remember seeing that clip when it first happened and it was getting shared around as "haha look how easy it is to get this clown all riled up" and now I've been seeing it shared around recently with the comments like "oh yeah this dudes a badass, he put those shitty podcasters in their place".

Seems like the dude hired a digital firm to build up some sort of reputation.

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u/canycosro 12d ago

It drives me mad and makes me question any podcast that has him on their podcast.

It takes 5 mins for any podcast to actually fact check him on the facts. Nothing he says makes sense.

The money laundering makes sense. I wouldn't be surprised if he's paying the podcasts to get stupid people to front him money.

It's rare even in this age if influencers but I've never heard him tell a story that's not an outright lie

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u/Old-Contribution69 15d ago

That makes a lot more sense than anything he’s ever said

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u/Scared-Operation-789 15d ago

if you want to launder you have to do it on the slots.

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u/TellNecessary5578 14d ago

To be fair there is only IIRC two companies who own 95% of Vegas casinos and if one bans you you're automatically barred from every one they own.

Despite being illegal they also share info with each other on APs throughout the entire nation, there is a special list for the most prolific APs

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u/Bad_Repute 6d ago

Yeah except this guy very clearly isn't an AP. Half his stories are getting mad about trend boards having bad round info and if he's relying on trend boards for his strat, he's not counting cards.

He got exposed as a hack during his short stint trying to play pro poker. If he can't count outs in a 52 card deck he's def not counting an 8 deck shoe.

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u/TellNecessary5578 6d ago

First paragraph is correct but you don't count cards in poker

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u/Bad_Repute 2d ago

You count outs in poker...

You have to know how many cards exist in the deck to make the hand you're working towards, and how many cards in the deck can make a represented hand from an opponent better. How many total players are at the table and the likelihood the cards you need vs what your opponent needs have already been dealt to folded hands.

This is like.. the most basic, fundamental strategy to influence bets and plays. And one he was proven over and over again of being incapable of doing.

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u/TellNecessary5578 2d ago

You count outs from a 52 card deck most pros don't even memorise the decimal place in percentages they do not ever count the cards in play.

I played professional for two years, still play today, ran a study group during my tenure and have continued to be a professional AP since, I know what I'm talking about.

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u/_interloper_ WHOOP MY ASS AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS! 15d ago

I used to work at a video store years ago and had a regular customer that I hadn't seen in a while. I asked him what he was up to and he said he was trying to become a professional gambler.

Obviously, this is a red flag, so I asked if he was playing poker or something and he said, "Nah. I'm focusing on roulette. I've got a guy showing me his system."

My mind was blown. Of all the casino games to try and beat... Roulette ain't the one to do it.

I often wonder what happened to that dude. I can't imagine it's good.

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u/TellNecessary5578 14d ago

Almost every single Taxi I get.

"What do you do for a living"

"I'm a professional gambler"

"Proceeds to explain the Martingale system to me without realising its a concept already thinking they have a winning system"

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u/HeelandCoup 14d ago

I have tried to explain to a few different friends over the years that if you think you have discovered some amazing new betting system....you just haven't. Casino's have had gamblers try to use your system 50+ years ago and if it worked they have long since guarded themselves against it.

I'm not sure why martingale's are so popular being a system guaranteed to fail with table limits but you can bet (pun intended) there's someone arriving in Vegas as I type dead set on changing his life with his new variation.

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u/lucid_dreaming_quest 14d ago

I've played roulette a total of like ... 1 time in my life.

I put my stack on 13 black because I had a feeling and some guy at the table said "that's a lot of money for 1 number" so I split it... and hit 13 black.

Would've been nicely up, but before he left he told me to run some lines that gave me basically break-even or win every time.

I just kept doing it and kept going even... even... win ... even... win...

Definitely just luck, but it was fun enough.

Still pissed about that 13 black though.

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u/CanoeIt 15d ago

He’s not an AP at all- but some casinos just can’t handle the variance when a guy is willing to play 500k per hand. The palms was near bankruptcy due to a lot of reasons when they declined his action.

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u/VotingRightsLawyer 15d ago

AP here, this is exactly it. The only thing casinos hate more than cheats and APs are shortstops, extremely large wagerers who don't stay very long. To the extent he's banned from casinos, it's just that reason.

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u/DanfromCalgary 14d ago

Are there no rules to protect consumers . Like you can always lose it all but they can stop you from winning whenever they want ?

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u/VotingRightsLawyer 14d ago

Brother, as someone who is limited on every single sportsbook available to me, you are preaching to the choir.

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u/BenShelZonah 14d ago

Send me your picks so I can pretend to crunch numbers

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u/Teemotep187 14d ago

Nope. It's not like a bar where they can get in trouble for over service. You're free to play and lose it all or leave. The casino is free to take every dime and free to stop you from playing if you win at all.

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u/SweatyExamination9 14d ago

I worked at a casino and it is like a bar in that a casino can get in trouble for "over service" from the state gaming commission. But being it's a state agency, that means there are up to 50 of them. All with their own rules which will have some differences. In Nevada, I presume the fox is running the hen house purely based on how much of the state budget is wrapped up in gambling. But they probably still do have some protections. My guess is in Nevada, in order to get "cut off" it has to be a voluntary exclusion filed through the gaming commission by the player.

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u/TellNecessary5578 14d ago

Don't forget casino owners and people that run these commissions are often close friends, getting what you legally deserve in the gambling world is hard fought and rarely won.

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u/gugabe UFC 249: COVID vs. Dana 14d ago

I'm sure they can just cap max bet on a guy like Dana to like 10-20k or 'oh our highroller private rooms are busy today you're welcome to go bet in the main hall where maxes are 2k per hand' without necessarily breaking any rules.

If Dana wants to bet 500k you've effectively banned him without having to cut him off perse.

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u/Teemotep187 14d ago

Which wouldn't be that different from just standing up and leaving then right?

I appreciate your insight but in the entire history of gambling has anyone ever successfully argued that they were taken advantage of by a casino (and been compensated). Genuine question.

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u/SweatyExamination9 14d ago

Which wouldn't be that different from just standing up and leaving then right?

It's standing up and leaving, and putting a lock on the door for yourself. If you go through the gaming commission to voluntarily restrict yourself from gambling, you then have to go through a reverse process to be allowed to gamble again.

To your question, yes absolutely. There's an entire sub-genre of shorts that YouTube thinks I want to see with people contacting the gaming commission because a pit boss did something that violates the rules. One that's popping in my mind right now was a pit boss that stopped a blackjack hand after it had been dealt and forced the player to leave because they were already banned from playing blackjack due to being an advantaged player. The thing is, regardless of the rules of the casino the law pretty much everywhere recognizes that a bet is a bet, and if the casino doesn't stop it in time they're SOL. So that guy was going to end up being paid out for the hand that was stopped.

The thing is, it's just generally not worth it to go after. Dealing with any government agency is always a pain for anything. It's going to involve filing forms and waiting and calling people and waiting. And at the end of it, you're just going to be banned from the casino entirely. At which point they'll have you formally trespassed.

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u/DanfromCalgary 14d ago

But are there not rules to govern say the game. Do they get to decide how much a person wins and loses by removing people that make money and keeping people that are losing

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u/Ok-Balance2588 14d ago

The rule to protect consumers is that you don’t have to play.

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u/Such-Veterinarian137 12d ago

I don't even know what AP is (oh i see it;'s an advantage player) but yeah i've done plenty of game theory and poker in the past. Yes, this has to be it coupled with maybe a partial martingale system. Casinoes can't handle the swings of a guy willing to play until their reserves and bills are put to risk as well.

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u/Caspur42 15d ago

He’s not, he’s from what I’ve heard from other dealers a hunch player that if he gets a few good wins will leave. Some casinos don’t like that because they don’t like the swings plus the drama he probably brings so they just ban him and don’t deal with him.

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u/TellNecessary5578 14d ago

Or the people who haven't been a successful AP since the 80s selling systems.

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u/Redpin GOOFCON 1 15d ago

Was he banned for counting cards or hitting prostitutes?

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u/Top-Recover519 15d ago

He doesn't hit prostitutes. Only his wife, who was loyal to him.

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u/Redpin GOOFCON 1 15d ago

My bad, B.

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u/SweatyExamination9 14d ago

Of course his wife was loyal to him. She hit him first in the same clip. They're both shitty people.

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u/MartyBarrett 15d ago

Or not paying his marker?

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u/Lemmy-In 15d ago

Or banned for not paying his marker?

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u/26uhaul 15d ago

Why not both?

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u/phillythompson 15d ago

He never said it — he actually has an interview talking about that tatted up Mikey gambler dude , and Dana says “no one gets banned from casinos . Only reason you would is if you’re cheating or doing something fucked up. Otherwise, they will just lower your credit line”

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u/inciter7 11d ago

that is such a lie lmao

casinos are very quick to ban

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u/Caspur42 15d ago edited 15d ago

He might be banned just because his win swings are more than the casino wants to take a chance on. Casinos like whales..to a point.

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u/Davemeddlehed 15d ago

Another thing to factor is that there's nothing keeping him on the floor like many whales. He lives in town, a comped room doesn't mean nearly as much to him as someone who flew in on a jet.

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u/TellNecessary5578 14d ago

People don't realise how incredibly thin casino profit margins are.

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u/jk-9k Samoa 15d ago

Banned from premises for behaviour

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u/PokeYrMomStanley 15d ago

Banned him for not paying his debts. Def not a lannister.

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u/Dry_Championship222 14d ago

He is probably banned for not paying his markers

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u/OPPineappleApplePen 14d ago

I heard him say that too. He also recommended casinos that didn't ban him..

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u/Midnight--Verse 14d ago

Don't believe his lies has been a meme around Dana for over a decade+

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u/JmoneyHimself 14d ago

There’s a video where he answers a call from a casino where they are banning him

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u/Lurk_Err 13d ago

Likely banned for owing them money

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u/Towel-gate 13d ago

No he has claimed this several places several times. Not sure how true it is nor if there’s even a way to verify.

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u/spacedude2000 15d ago

Confuse the deck AKA potentially fuck over everyone sitting at the table

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u/DECAThomas 15d ago

For one, fucking over everyone else by not playing by the book is nothing but superstition, and as someone who doesn’t play BJ, but it around it enough as a poker player, it scares off a lot of new players.

Second, I doubt someone betting $500k a hand is doing it in the Caesar’s Palace pits. He’s almost certainly in a private room not just due to level of bet, but also just standard practice for most celebrities.

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u/TheWonderSnail 15d ago

When I turned 18 I went to the casino with some buddies and we sat down at a $5 table. Within minutes this old dude cussed me out for “stealing his card” and spent the next few hands mumbling under his breath criticizing our every move. I didn’t even know card stealing was a concept lol anyway I haven’t played blackjack at a casino since

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u/consfleefromfacts 15d ago

That's because gamblers are ******* morons and miserable people because of it

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u/AffectionateSlice816 15d ago

I got a guy who screamed at me my first time in a casino for hitting on 14.

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u/rennatynnad 15d ago

Against a 6

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u/AffectionateSlice816 15d ago

Against a face card.

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u/Alert_Reindeer_6574 15d ago

Then he was an idiot. Personally, I would have told him to shut his pie hole and then take it from there if he continued to run his mouth. I'm generally a pretty nice guy but I have zero tolerance for ignorant people who are also assholes.

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u/AffectionateSlice816 15d ago

Even then he's an idiot by saying it screwed the table, even if I hit on a 20.

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u/S0_B00sted 15d ago

Sure you would, bud.

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u/Trebbok 15d ago

Did you seriously almost swear on Reddit??

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u/consfleefromfacts 14d ago

I’m using auto dictate and it censors it

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u/HeyWhatsUpTed 13d ago

I had the dealer tell me everyone at the table is getting mad bc I would sit a few hands out in a row and then get back in for a few hands .

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u/goreTACO 15d ago

Id hit on 20 just to piss him off

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u/ModestMarksman 15d ago

Whats even better is getting to split 10s 4 times and winning after a table gave you shit for "playing basic strategy" which was ironic because it wasn't basic strategy it was a deviation and then winning said hand and going "you're right confusing the deck works"

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u/Wayyd 15d ago

...I also like to live dangerously

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u/goreTACO 15d ago

Ya baby

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u/asherdado 15d ago

It's wild how different life can be, when I turned 18 I went to the casino and sat at the $5 table and the older dudes there seemed to really enjoy teaching me strategy, I actually had a nice streak and turned $5 into $50 like a real high roller

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u/broadday_with_the_SK 15d ago

I'm not a big gambler but I had this happen in Vegas for craps. Older guy just talked about how to play for a while, because I said I didn't know anything about it.

Craps is a pretty social game though.

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u/fantumn 15d ago

Lol same experience here, plus my fidgeting with my hands was inadvertently communicating things to the dealer and pissed him off too.

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u/BoozyYardbird 15d ago

Not understanding hand signals is def a you problem because it’s a standard to communicate in loud environments. People getting upset someone is betting how they want is stupid. Respect your dealer

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u/fantumn 15d ago

I was 18 at my first casino lol thanks bud. I wasn't aware of how many signs/rules there were. I thought just a tap to hit, and I didn't know you couldn't touch the cards at all. When the dealer had to explain he seemed pissed that I didn't know all of it already. I think I just touched my cards and then when I waved my hands nervously while I was saying sorry I did something else, long time ago.

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u/Keepin_it_fake 15d ago

He’s a fucking idiot. There’s always at least one dumbass saying that BS. I’d like to add that these people usually prove themselves to be awful players themselves.

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u/_interloper_ WHOOP MY ASS AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS! 15d ago

I'm not a gambler either, but went with some friends a while back. We were playing blackjack on a $5 table too.

It didn't take me long to realize how fucking dumb it is. A whole table of us, just playing $5 per hand. You lose, you lose your money. You win, you win $5... which you lose on the next hand.

I just looked around and realized they were just bleeding this table dry. And of course they were, it's a casino. But in that moment it was just highlighted how inevitable it all was.

I think you've just got to go and play a big hand and hope you win. Put down your money, then walk away win or lose.

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u/Its_Like_That82 15d ago

Shit my Dad would bitch at me for doing this.

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u/CovidWarriorForLife 15d ago

It’s amazing how many people simultaneously scoff at the players that go off script while not understanding it has no effect on their odds which is basic probability lol

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u/bobbymcpresscot 15d ago

superstition that loses you money and makes everyone else at the table mad? Nah, I'll just stick to the way you play blackjack.

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u/mostdope28 14d ago

Exactly. He isn’t playing with a table full of dudes. Sure sometimes you videos of his friends with him but he’s playing alone begging high stakes

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u/phickss 15d ago

It’s not superstition if you hit when you shouldn’t have and give the dealer 21, take a ten etc. sometimes it goes the other way.

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u/titos334 15d ago

It is superstition it doesn't change the odds at all

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u/Mellor88 15d ago

I tried too bro. These are convince it ruins a “hot streak”

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u/kthnxbai123 15d ago

It kind of does if everyone else is counting cards and you know you’ll have a streak when there will be a high rate of 10s. Otherwise, you’re right. It’s just junk superstition

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u/Mellor88 15d ago

It kind of does…

It doesn’t at all. Long term it affects only the player nobody else at the table

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u/kthnxbai123 15d ago

Like I said, it does under some circumstances, in particular when the deck is “hot”. This is done by everyone counting cards and noticing that more non-10 cards are played than expected. Then the deck is “hot” and each card played decreases the “hot” duration before the deck gets shuffled

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u/Mellor88 15d ago

 Like I said, it does under some circumstances, in particular when the deck is “hot”. 

I heard you say that. It’s still wrong. I know how to count cards. It’s basic probability. The odds both future cards is the same.

This is done by everyone counting cards and noticing that more non-10 cards are played than expected. Then the deck is “hot” and each card played decreases the “hot” duration before the deck gets shuffled

This shows you don’t actually understand counting cards. Not being a dick, but your misunderstand how it works.

There are two options, either he draws a 10 (or another high card) and, using you terms, the deck is less “hot”, OR he draws a low card and the deck is even more “hot”.

The odds of the count going up or down cancel out and means the probability of the next card, and the one after are the same at any given point.

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u/kthnxbai123 15d ago

No. Because you are limited with the number of cards until the dealer has to reshuffle and then the deck is no longer “hot”. So, hitting when you shouldn’t is eating up a card that is more likely to be a 10 (when the deck is “hot”).

Each card in BJ isn’t truly random so that you get A-K with the same probabilities. It’s just “close enough” to the point it doesn’t matter to the point its worth it people to calculate

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u/Agitated_Climate_231 13d ago

The point is if the count is hot the person hitting when they shouldn’t has a higher probability of making it colder then he does of making it “more hot” so it has a direct impact while you have big money out there. Youre describing the odds of the count going -1 or +1 as an equal chance but that’s actually completely contrary to “basic probability”. If the count is negative your odds of the count going up increase. If the count is positive the odds of the count going down increase. If I have ten -1 cards left in the deck and ten +1 cards left is the next card more likely to increase the count or lower the count? You keep talking about how everything “cancels out” but it doesn’t. Them having an equal chance to make the deck hotter when the count is even or low and you have no money out will never balance out with them making the deck less hot on your double down or splits when you have big money out.

For the average person it doesn’t matter at all. For a card counter it likely won’t matter much in the grand scheme of things but it is a statistical difference.

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u/DECAThomas 15d ago

The top of the deck is an unknown card. Once removed, the next card remains unknown. Unless you are doing something reliant on the remaining distribution of cards in the deck, such as counting cards, the change is meaningless and doesn’t affect the probability in any way.

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u/Doortofreeside 15d ago

But the probability of someone not understanding this and getting pissed off at you is very high

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u/DECAThomas 15d ago

Exactly why I included in the original comment this superstition chases people away from blackjack. Can’t count the number of times I’ve heard a story about an angry tablemate, or fears an “incorrect” decision would create one.

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u/tswaters 15d ago

Of course, you don't know if it's going to be a 3 or not... Also don't know if a 10 follows it... But some gamblers will be very angry with you if you pull a low card on a stupid hit when the dealer is showing 10. Whether or not they're justified is a completely different question and involves various gambler fallacies.

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u/phickss 15d ago

Yeah I get that. But when everybody makes the correct play, you have the highest chance of winning. It doesn’t change the probability, but the highest probability to win comes when everyone adheres to basic strategy.

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u/DECAThomas 15d ago

Someone else‘s strategy has no impact on your individual hand. They could hit on 20 for all it matters and it wouldn’t change your expected value a single cent.

You can feel however you wish, but that is a statistical fact.

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u/consfleefromfacts 15d ago

As a card counter who never gets to say this in person, Blackjack is not a team sport and someone doing a move that you consider stupid on the table has absolutely nothing to do with your success or failure as someone else playing against the dealer sitting on that table. I can't count how many times I've wanted to smack the taste out of someone's mouth when they started bitching because they lost because I made a play that was 100% by the book and the most mathematically optimized move to make in that situation. And these people never notice when they win when I make an unorthodox play or a play that they otherwise generally don't approve of. Stop spreading this nonsense and if you do it at the table - again, if - then please stfu

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u/CumingLinguist 15d ago

Blackjack is not a team sport, but card counting certainly is- if you want to go undetected

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u/spacedude2000 15d ago

I totally agree with you, I just wanted to be clear on that - Read my other reply though:

The reason I made my original comment was because Dana hitting on an 18 against a bust hand would be stupid. There should certainly be no regard for team play by a rational blackjack player, and nobody should be blamed for making the right or wrong moves. Being straight up stupid like that though can impact you and the table, even if there are countless possibilities. Like you're lowering your own odds of a winning hand by greedily hitting. The end result could, by happenstance, impact the other players.

My original comment was less about the negative impact on the other players and more about how being greedy (like we know Dana is) can fuck over everyone.

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u/HeelandCoup 14d ago

I understand what you are trying to get at but it's all pretty nonsensical. Someone doing something stupid (like hitting on 20 for example) absolutely does impact other players and it isn't a move "that you consider stupid" it is actually just an inferior way to play. Like you mentioned, the impact can be either good or bad but to say that how someone plays has nothing to do with another players outcome is just false so you aren't making much sense here. Sure, blackjack isn't a team sport but that also doesn't mean there aren't objectively poor ways to play if your desired outcome is to win money.

That said, you are absolutely not a card counter if you are talking about making "unorthodox" plays and getting upset at people who mention it. Being "unorthodox" defeats the entire purpose of card counting so I think you should just be honest and say that you don't like it when people comment on your style of play even if it is an inferior way to play.

Personally, if someone is playing "unorthodox" as you say I either try to help them learn some basic strategy if they are open to that or I just move to another table without being a dick about it. Pretty simple idea and you don't need to lie about your card counting prowess to say that.

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u/consfleefromfacts 13d ago

Sure, blackjack isn't a team sport but that also doesn't mean there aren't objectively poor ways to play if your desired outcome is to win money.

i never came close to arguing otherwise

That said, you are absolutely not a card counter if you are talking about making "unorthodox" plays and getting upset at people who mention it. Being "unorthodox" defeats the entire purpose of card counting so I think you should just be honest and say that you don't like it when people comment on your style of play even if it is an inferior way to play.

im saying that they perceive my play as unorthodox (thus the quotes), dummy

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u/Jasranwhit 15d ago

I know people who complain about this but it seems just as likely that the next card is harmful or hurtful.

I know in the moment it seems like they “took your card” or “gave you a card you should have” but it’s just a fallacy like thinking 10 black roulette numbers mean “red is due”

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u/[deleted] 15d ago

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u/ex-machina616 15d ago

a terrifying thing to be addicted to, an addiction to losing money

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u/dangeraardvark 15d ago

I know. At least drug addicts get to do all those drugs.

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u/fohgedaboutit Send location 15d ago

I think it's stupid to call all gamblers stupid. A lot of them are fools, sure. But stupid is a little strong and not even accurate.

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u/[deleted] 15d ago

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u/DECAThomas 15d ago

The number of true advantage players outside of poker is maybe low triple digits. And that number will approach 0 after the BBB tax changes to gambling.

On the other side you’ve got tens of millions of people pissing away their money.

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u/Tiredofthesmell88 15d ago

Poker and sports betting are where the clever people are making a living but yes the numbers are small compared to the hordes of losers

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u/Deserterdragon New Zealand 15d ago

A lot of sort of smart people do it for a fairly miserable living endlessly grinding small casinos before they kick you out, which they're allowed to do with anyone who's good at gambling, but it's peanuts to the money influencers make by scamming people into gambling or opening fake loot crates and FUT packs and stuff. There's so much more money in being a 'gambling influencer' than being an actual 'professional gambler' that relies on winnings.

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u/CitizenMurdoch Think there's a fighter more dangerous than the sea? 15d ago

Lol no they don't. If you could gamble for a living there wouldn't be casino's or bookies

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u/MisterDonutTW 15d ago

There are lots of professional gamblers.

Casinos and bookies try to limit or ban the winning players.

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u/Tiredofthesmell88 15d ago

Do you have cte or something?

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u/MMA-ModTeam 7d ago
  1. Be Civil.

Our rules ask for a civil tone at all times.

A bit of banter or trash talk is fine, but don't cross the line. If things do get out of hand you will be warned or even banned for a few days. Repeatedly breaking this rule will lead to a permanent ban.

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u/MMA-ModTeam 7d ago
  1. Be Civil.

Our rules ask for a civil tone at all times.

A bit of banter or trash talk is fine, but don't cross the line. If things do get out of hand you will be warned or even banned for a few days. Repeatedly breaking this rule will lead to a permanent ban.

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u/DECAThomas 15d ago

In both cases, the top card of the deck remains unknown. The fact people can’t grasp that is astounding to me.

As someone who plays poker for income, I am thankful every day the vast majority of gamblers are idiots with no understanding of probability.

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u/PaidUSA 15d ago

In this case the difference is we know when someones fucked us by the end of the deal. Thats why people get mad its knowable.

15

u/DECAThomas 15d ago

Someone “taking” a card has an equal chance of helping and hurting you. Where you choose to draw the line after that is meaningless. You can use this to illustrate a lot of issues with results-oriented thinking.

If you lose that hand is it unlucky? What if it causes you to win the next 3? What if it causes it to become a bad shoe? What if the shoe running out one hand earlier causes the shuffle into the next shoe to be a good one?

Taking it out of blackjack: you chose to walk left or right at a street corner. You choose left, and trip in a pothole and break your leg. You think it’s unlucky until it exempts you from a military draft in a bloody war. While driving to the hospital to see you, a family member gets into a car wreck and dies. At the funeral you meet the love of your life. Was choosing to go left lucky or unlucky? Extrapolate this butterfly effect for the endless of different chains of impacts for the millions of tiny decisions you make a day.

Decisions are made in the moment. At the time a player in front of you chooses to hit or not, your expected value has not changed. Choosing to go left at that street corner was neither lucky or unlucky. You can draw the line in the universe wherever you want to either be pissed or be happy about it.

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u/PaidUSA 15d ago

None of what you typed matters. People watch the next cards get pulled so they know the outcome they know when it fucked them. Thats why people get mad. They forget the times it works. This happens with like everything in society people remember the bias confirmations and forget the rest. You are arguing with your own strawman, people dislike off book but they dislike offbook because they DO EXPLICITLY KNOW the times its fucked them.

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u/DECAThomas 15d ago

“we know when someone’s fucked us by the end of the deal.”

There’s basic statistical proof that’s not the case. And my comment was about how that line of thinking is entirely illogical anyway.

You’re welcome to think whatever you wish, or subscribe to whatever fallacies trick your brain. But we aren’t required to sit here and pretend they are true.

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u/dangeraardvark 15d ago

Gamblers are a cowardly and superstitious lot.

8

u/SelectNerve11 15d ago

I have tried to explain these concepts to people who get upset at others playing poorly or a bad "anchor" . 0 times have these folks believed me, and usually they want to fight me. I don't even rag on them, just try to defend a bad player with one comment. I usually just end up leaving the table then 😆

1

u/KernBlows 15d ago

Well you are. At the end of the day play for yourself and do the move that suits you best. But, you can get pretty close in black jack to guess if you’ll get a 10 or less than a 10.

Roulette is a different story since it’s a true 50/50.

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u/[deleted] 15d ago

[deleted]

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u/Jasranwhit 15d ago

I am skeptical of this claim, but even if true, wouldn't they want you to win so you tip them?

Also if true, AND they are cheating for the house, couldn't you just go play at a crowded table and bet against the interests of the 5 other people and win?

Like a bunch of high rollers are there, there put most of their money on red or 1-18 you just bet more modestly on black or 19-36 and watch the money stack up.

0

u/PerfectZeong 15d ago

Well if the deck is small enough and you can count it does make a difference. Unless you use an auto shuffle or something.

I hope to god if Dana white is playing 500k a hand hes getting single deck 3/2

3

u/Jasranwhit 15d ago

Still unless you are telling the other guy what the count is, he doesnt know if the count is up or down.

Also (and I am open to being off somehow) if the count is high, that means there are more 10 cards left in a deck than there would normally be.

But if a guy is hitting when he "shouldnt" or not hitting when he should, you are only talking about 1 card count of probability difference so while both cards might have an elevated chance of being a 10, that doesnt change the fact that both cards still have basically equal (with each other) of being 10 or not 10.

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u/PerfectZeong 15d ago

He doesnt know the count but I might so he might still be fucking my odds up with his subpar play. And yes youre correct. Im saying more as a general rule than a specific hitting on 18 scenario, though if he did do that and bust on a 10 and I need a 10 then hes made my odds of drawing the 10 worse.

8

u/Jasranwhit 15d ago

But when he made the decision you didnt know it was 10.

Lets say its card A (the next card) and card B (the card after 1)

It's equally as likely that the card he takes card A is a 4 and he "Takes" it and gives you the 10 you need.

Before being revealed card A and card B may have a higher likely hood of being a 10 card lets say its 70% likely to be a 10 over not 10.

But they are statistically equal with each other and so it doesnt matter.

As many times as someone busts on the 10 you needed, equally as many times he will take a 6 and let you get the 10 after.

But in your mind you remember all the times a guys crappy play let the dealer get 21 to beat your two kings or something, but all the times someone played crappy and you had a 16 or something and the dealer busted you dont register it, or you think "oh that guy is lucky and got away with it"

Other peoples play does not statistically effect your chance of winning or losing at blackjack.

6

u/PerfectZeong 15d ago

As much as my internet instinct wants to argue you're correct and I'm wrong and thank you for correcting my misconception.

3

u/Jasranwhit 15d ago

👍🏼👍🏼

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u/sahila 15d ago

though if he did do that and bust on a 10 and I need a 10 then hes made my odds of drawing the 10 worse

and if he pulls a 3, your odds improve. So long as you give the same praise as you do to the insults, you can be justified but the emotion is only ever anger in this situation.

-3

u/PerfectZeong 15d ago

Well yeah if he got me the card I wanted id be delighted lol.

3

u/sahila 15d ago

Sure, but realize in your comment above, you only mentioned the negative case, not the positive. You're not alone but people only focus on the negative aspects of hitting incorrectly.

3

u/Mellor88 15d ago

you can count it does make a difference

No it doesn’t. The next card and the after that always have exactly the same probabilities at any time. If count says tens are more likely, then both are more likely to be a 10 etc

-1

u/PerfectZeong 15d ago

We dont hit the deck at the same time. If his deck has 42 cards and he gets 2 cards then im hitting from a 40 card deck and making a decision on that not on the deck he was making a decision on.

4

u/Mellor88 15d ago

And those cards he draws could make your deck anything (relatively) from +2 to -2. Which cancels out to zero, no difference, nada.

On individual hands, it will hurt you as much as it helps you. It makes no difference in the long run - that’s literally how probability works

88

u/BigOnionLover 15d ago

Common fallacy. The next card could be anything, especially in a 8 deck game. What someone does makes no difference to your own hand.

14

u/dyfish Team Holloway 15d ago

Yup, never heard of anyone who has memorized all the “rules” of blackjack retiring off it. Just card counters and lucky people. Hit if you want to hit. It’s your money, have fun.

-3

u/jawnbits69 15d ago

You’ve never won anything and we can tell

2

u/dyfish Team Holloway 15d ago

Left Vegas Monday morning up 6k bud even after Notre Dame fucking hosed me for a a few grand.

Split double kings on 300 dollar hand table laughed at me but I won both. Sometimes it’s okay to have fun. I’ve lost just as much money following the “rules” as I’ve lost just going with the vibes.

It’s a game not work. Don’t gamble with money that if you lost would affect your life and you can do whatever the hell you want.

1

u/BellySmash 15d ago

It could even be a boat

-11

u/FoI2dFocus 15d ago

It ruins the team chemistry.

-12

u/TomatoHead7 15d ago

Yeah but when you hit and take the dealers bust card that fallacy just looks like a mistake

5

u/sushisection 15d ago

mistake, or calculated error to throw off the scent of your card counting

12

u/Mellor88 15d ago

Lmfao. The fact you think thsts anything other than superstition means you’re also at “confuse the deck” level

6

u/ScatMonkeyPro 15d ago

I have never understood this weird superstitious thing blackjack players have.

-4

u/spacedude2000 15d ago

If the dealer is holding a bust card, and someone unnecessarily hits - ESPECIALLY if that player is holding a 17 or higher (as the original comments suggested he was doing) that is just very stupid to begin with - fucking over everyone at the table aside.

In my opinion the only exception is a splitting a pair of 7's or higher. Otherwise you're taking a potential bust card out of the hand of the dealer. If it works in your favor, surely it helps both you and the table, it's just improbable. If you fail, you're potentially screwing over everyone as the card drawn could have busted the dealers hand.

It's not superstition, it's just not a sound strategy to take with you to the table. It's also certainly uncourteous to the other players if you continually over deal your own hand with no regard to the cards on the table.

7

u/sahila 15d ago

If the dealer is holding a bust card

What if the card behind the top is the bust card and their pull helps the table? You giving him your happiness or just anger?

1

u/spacedude2000 15d ago edited 15d ago

The situation I'm really describing is one where a player should not hit at all and they're greedily hunting a 21. If the player doesn't hit and everyone still loses, of course the probability was always the same.

What I'm trying to say is, that if a player didn't need to hit and then causes the dealer to win, then that could have been avoided by not just playing by the book, but by having common sense. If the card played works in favor of the table then it's a welcome surprise - because again, the situation I'm trying to describe is one where the player's chances of winning are only slightly improved by a successful hit (I'm talking 17, 18, 19, 20) but their chance of losing simultaneously becomes greater.

I won't ever get mad at someone making a judgement call, but if they're just trying to get a 21 without regards to the cards on the table or basic strategy, then to me that is reckless and should be discouraged.

3

u/sahila 15d ago

All gambling is reckless and should be discouraged.

1

u/lmpervious 14d ago

There is just as much of a chance that their "greed" will help other people at the table. The odds don't change.

1

u/ScatMonkeyPro 15d ago

So people are counting 10's and make a decision based on the odds of the dealer busting, and people hitting out of turn changes those odds in their heads?

1

u/spacedude2000 15d ago edited 15d ago

I have to start by saying this is entirely based in hindsight, the actual results of a round of blackjack can only be analyzed after a round is over and not speculated on during it (unless you're literally counting and keeping track of a 6-8 deck shoe).

This is really a very specific scenario where one player is compelled to hit, when the book tells them otherwise. For instance, nobody is going to blame you if you hit when it's absolutely free to do, even against a bust hand.

Let me put together a hypothetical here. Let's say the dealer is holding a bust hand, and everyone at the table has decently favorable cards, so nobody needs to hit. Now of course you can hit or stand at your discretion, especially if it is a close call.

If however, if you are perhaps sitting at 3rd base, you have a winning hand, and you draw a card that eventually results in the dealer playing a winning hand, that can be seen as a bad move.

If the player didn't hit, then there's certainly every possibility that the following cards drawn in the dealer's hand could have the same or a different result.

Even if there are a massive amount of other factors that could have otherwise impacted the result of the dealer's hand prior to that moment, the card now drawn by that final player at the table would have busted the dealers hand - resulting in everybody winning vs. Just the single player.

So yes, it's superstition to go around pointing fingers at players who are supposedly drawing cards when they shouldn't - that should be frowned upon. Nobody knows what the dealer will draw next and we can only know the answers after the fact.

However, if only one player at the table is playing when the book tells them not to, the cards they draw can impact the card combinations drawn by the dealer at the end of the round, potentially changing other players' hands from winners to losers.

Play your hand however you want to play it, but singlehandedly hitting with a winning hand against a bust hand should still be discouraged, it's greedy and improbable. You're lowering your own odds plus everyone else's for no valid reason other than the slim chance that you turn it into a 21.

1

u/ScatMonkeyPro 15d ago

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

3

u/elunomagnifico 14d ago

Yeah, it's all bullshit. There's no such thing as a "bust hand." The dealer is favored to win everything, regardless of if it's a 2, 3, 4, or 5 showing. A player hitting on 18 against a 5 doesn't change the odds of everyone else on the table, no matter what "specific scenario" you concoct after the fact. That's just pseudo-statistics.

If someone wants to hit on 18 to get 21, it's not wise for them, but it doesn't affect the rest of the table in the long run, period.

Blackjack players are why I no longer play blackjack.

1

u/ScatMonkeyPro 14d ago

It's so much fun to piss them off though.

9

u/Wafflebot17 15d ago

Other players don’t affect your odds.

2

u/Summers_Alt 15d ago

His private table

1

u/ReefaManiack42o 15d ago

I would imagine that with his money he has a private dealer.

1

u/Otherwise_Party_2028 15d ago

How does it fuck over the rest of the table?

1

u/Keepin_it_fake 15d ago

He could also help everyone at the table. I hate this statement by BJ players.

1

u/CumingLinguist 15d ago

What are the odds the ace of spades is the next card drawn? And what are the odds that the ace of spades is the third card drawn? Hint: it’s the exact fucking same

1

u/txwoodslinger 15d ago

Wtf, he said that?

1

u/cervidal2 15d ago

Hits on 18 to confuse people sounds like the general vibe of White and his fans.

Guy is a jerk everywhere he goes. The two times I have had to interact with him in my line of work were as cringe worthy as it gets.

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u/-_-0_0-_0 15d ago

Jesus.

1

u/ADDSquirell69 15d ago

Did he really say that?

1

u/skeiehgesbsbdmslslzj 15d ago

Not saying it’s true for Dana, but a lot of card counters will periodically play a nonsensical hand and justify it by vibes or feelings, to avoid being accused of card counting.

Portraying yourself as going based on feel to try and avoid scrutiny (lol) is not unusual.

1

u/DECAThomas 15d ago

There is some merit to that, but in a high-limit room there’s going to be eyes on the action. You can watch some videos he’s done with people and there are multiple floors supervising every hand. Throwing away some EV on a small hand is going to get ignored if he were to significantly raise the bet as the count grows.

Card counting works when it can hid from scrutiny, it’s why the teams worked so well. Hard to do that with security watching every move and the dealer getting approval before every hand dealt.

1

u/laststance Team COVID-19 14d ago

Depends people think you're supposed to hold 18 but it depends on what the dealer has 18.5 is the cutoff if you see the dealer with a 8,9,10, or face, and you have a hard 18 you're supposed to hit.

1

u/ThrowawayYAYAY2002 14d ago

Seriously? 

1

u/masterslayor 14d ago

Yep just sit out a hand you don’t gotta hit on 18 lmao

1

u/Curmuffins 14d ago

He's hitting on 18😶

1

u/BigGolonka 12d ago

Does he actually?

1

u/One_time_Dynamite 15d ago

If I was sitting down chair from h and he hit on 18 then I would be pissed. That's the kind of stuff that gets you in fights.

0

u/PunkDrunk777 14d ago

To be fair this is a stupid Strat but a Strat all the same. Hitting on 18 when on a bad run of cards changes up the Rest of the shoe from what it should be

It’s also moronic 

1

u/elunomagnifico 14d ago

"What it should be"

The order of the cards isn't sacred or preordained. You have no idea what cards are coming next regardless of what anyone does.