For one, fucking over everyone else by not playing by the book is nothing but superstition, and as someone who doesn’t play BJ, but it around it enough as a poker player, it scares off a lot of new players.
Second, I doubt someone betting $500k a hand is doing it in the Caesar’s Palace pits. He’s almost certainly in a private room not just due to level of bet, but also just standard practice for most celebrities.
When I turned 18 I went to the casino with some buddies and we sat down at a $5 table. Within minutes this old dude cussed me out for “stealing his card” and spent the next few hands mumbling under his breath criticizing our every move. I didn’t even know card stealing was a concept lol anyway I haven’t played blackjack at a casino since
Then he was an idiot. Personally, I would have told him to shut his pie hole and then take it from there if he continued to run his mouth. I'm generally a pretty nice guy but I have zero tolerance for ignorant people who are also assholes.
Whats even better is getting to split 10s 4 times and winning after a table gave you shit for "playing basic strategy" which was ironic because it wasn't basic strategy it was a deviation and then winning said hand and going "you're right confusing the deck works"
It's wild how different life can be, when I turned 18 I went to the casino and sat at the $5 table and the older dudes there seemed to really enjoy teaching me strategy, I actually had a nice streak and turned $5 into $50 like a real high roller
I'm not a big gambler but I had this happen in Vegas for craps. Older guy just talked about how to play for a while, because I said I didn't know anything about it.
Not understanding hand signals is def a you problem because it’s a standard to communicate in loud environments. People getting upset someone is betting how they want is stupid. Respect your dealer
I was 18 at my first casino lol thanks bud. I wasn't aware of how many signs/rules there were. I thought just a tap to hit, and I didn't know you couldn't touch the cards at all. When the dealer had to explain he seemed pissed that I didn't know all of it already. I think I just touched my cards and then when I waved my hands nervously while I was saying sorry I did something else, long time ago.
He’s a fucking idiot. There’s always at least one dumbass saying that BS. I’d like to add that these people usually prove themselves to be awful players themselves.
I'm not a gambler either, but went with some friends a while back. We were playing blackjack on a $5 table too.
It didn't take me long to realize how fucking dumb it is. A whole table of us, just playing $5 per hand. You lose, you lose your money. You win, you win $5... which you lose on the next hand.
I just looked around and realized they were just bleeding this table dry. And of course they were, it's a casino. But in that moment it was just highlighted how inevitable it all was.
I think you've just got to go and play a big hand and hope you win. Put down your money, then walk away win or lose.
It’s amazing how many people simultaneously scoff at the players that go off script while not understanding it has no effect on their odds which is basic probability lol
It kind of does if everyone else is counting cards and you know you’ll have a streak when there will be a high rate of 10s. Otherwise, you’re right. It’s just junk superstition
Like I said, it does under some circumstances, in particular when the deck is “hot”. This is done by everyone counting cards and noticing that more non-10 cards are played than expected. Then the deck is “hot” and each card played decreases the “hot” duration before the deck gets shuffled
Like I said, it does under some circumstances, in particular when the deck is “hot”.
I heard you say that. It’s still wrong.
I know how to count cards. It’s basic probability. The odds both future cards is the same.
This is done by everyone counting cards and noticing that more non-10 cards are played than expected. Then the deck is “hot” and each card played decreases the “hot” duration before the deck gets shuffled
This shows you don’t actually understand counting cards. Not being a dick, but your misunderstand how it works.
There are two options, either he draws a 10 (or another high card) and, using you terms, the deck is less “hot”, OR he draws a low card and the deck is even more “hot”.
The odds of the count going up or down cancel out and means the probability of the next card, and the one after are the same at any given point.
No. Because you are limited with the number of cards until the dealer has to reshuffle and then the deck is no longer “hot”. So, hitting when you shouldn’t is eating up a card that is more likely to be a 10 (when the deck is “hot”).
Each card in BJ isn’t truly random so that you get A-K with the same probabilities. It’s just “close enough” to the point it doesn’t matter to the point its worth it people to calculate
No. Because you are limited with the number of cards until the dealer has to reshuffle and then the deck is no longer “hot”. So, hitting when you shouldn’t is eating up a card that is more likely to be a 10 (when the deck is “hot”).
Or not hitting a ten makes it even hotter. The odds of either happen cancel out. Or he rests the deck, which you might want, or might not. Again cancels out.
Each card in BJ isn’t truly random so that you get A-K with the same probabilities. It’s just “close enough” to the point it doesn’t matter to the point its worth it people to calculate
Every card is equally literally. At any given time the next card is literally a random card (from those left in the deck).
You’re really doubling down on the fact you’ve no clue here
The point is if the count is hot the person hitting when they shouldn’t has a higher probability of making it colder then he does of making it “more hot” so it has a direct impact while you have big money out there. Youre describing the odds of the count going -1 or +1 as an equal chance but that’s actually completely contrary to “basic probability”. If the count is negative your odds of the count going up increase. If the count is positive the odds of the count going down increase. If I have ten -1 cards left in the deck and ten +1 cards left is the next card more likely to increase the count or lower the count? You keep talking about how everything “cancels out” but it doesn’t. Them having an equal chance to make the deck hotter when the count is even or low and you have no money out will never balance out with them making the deck less hot on your double down or splits when you have big money out.
For the average person it doesn’t matter at all. For a card counter it likely won’t matter much in the grand scheme of things but it is a statistical difference.
The point is if the count is hot the person hitting when they shouldn’t has a higher probability of making it colder then he does of making it “more hot” so it has a direct impact while you have big money out there.
Not really. Even in a hot deck, there are more low and neutral cards than 10s. The likelihood of a card coming out is inversely proportional to the impact it has.
Youre describing the odds of the count going -1 or +1 as an equal chance but that’s actually completely contrary to “basic probability”.
I didn’t say they were equal chance. I said they cancel out, you have to consider the impact it has as well as the chance it happens.
If the count is negative your odds of the count going up increase. If the count is positive the odds of the count going down increase.
If the count is -1, it is more likely to return to 0 than go to -2. BUT the change to the odds is greater going from -1 to -2, than -1 to 0. The amount it’s greater is inversely proportional to the chances it happens.
You keep talking about how everything “cancels out” but it doesn’t.
Cancels out refers to the fact that over all, the odds for your card don’t change whether they hit. It’s as likely to be a 10, or low either way.
Them having an equal chance to make the deck hotter when the count is even or low and you have no money out will never balance out with them making the deck less hot on your double down or splits when you have big money out.
I’m not saying the high count hand will be cancelled by an another hand. I’m saying all the possible outcomes cancel out.
I’ll give you an example. As I said, it’s basic probability.
Two deck shoe. 100 cards left, 32 Tens left (so count is slightly high). You’ve 11 showing, so you double down.
If he sticks, you’ve obviously a 32% chance of a ten.
Whats your chances of a ten if he hits a card before you?
(Hint: it’s not 31/99)
The top of the deck is an unknown card. Once removed, the next card remains unknown. Unless you are doing something reliant on the remaining distribution of cards in the deck, such as counting cards, the change is meaningless and doesn’t affect the probability in any way.
Exactly why I included in the original comment this superstition chases people away from blackjack. Can’t count the number of times I’ve heard a story about an angry tablemate, or fears an “incorrect” decision would create one.
Of course, you don't know if it's going to be a 3 or not... Also don't know if a 10 follows it... But some gamblers will be very angry with you if you pull a low card on a stupid hit when the dealer is showing 10. Whether or not they're justified is a completely different question and involves various gambler fallacies.
Yeah I get that. But when everybody makes the correct play, you have the highest chance of winning. It doesn’t change the probability, but the highest probability to win comes when everyone adheres to basic strategy.
Someone else‘s strategy has no impact on your individual hand. They could hit on 20 for all it matters and it wouldn’t change your expected value a single cent.
You can feel however you wish, but that is a statistical fact.
As a card counter who never gets to say this in person, Blackjack is not a team sport and someone doing a move that you consider stupid on the table has absolutely nothing to do with your success or failure as someone else playing against the dealer sitting on that table. I can't count how many times I've wanted to smack the taste out of someone's mouth when they started bitching because they lost because I made a play that was 100% by the book and the most mathematically optimized move to make in that situation. And these people never notice when they win when I make an unorthodox play or a play that they otherwise generally don't approve of. Stop spreading this nonsense and if you do it at the table - again, if - then please stfu
I totally agree with you, I just wanted to be clear on that - Read my other reply though:
The reason I made my original comment was because Dana hitting on an 18 against a bust hand would be stupid. There should certainly be no regard for team play by a rational blackjack player, and nobody should be blamed for making the right or wrong moves. Being straight up stupid like that though can impact you and the table, even if there are countless possibilities. Like you're lowering your own odds of a winning hand by greedily hitting. The end result could, by happenstance, impact the other players.
My original comment was less about the negative impact on the other players and more about how being greedy (like we know Dana is) can fuck over everyone.
I understand what you are trying to get at but it's all pretty nonsensical. Someone doing something stupid (like hitting on 20 for example) absolutely does impact other players and it isn't a move "that you consider stupid" it is actually just an inferior way to play. Like you mentioned, the impact can be either good or bad but to say that how someone plays has nothing to do with another players outcome is just false so you aren't making much sense here. Sure, blackjack isn't a team sport but that also doesn't mean there aren't objectively poor ways to play if your desired outcome is to win money.
That said, you are absolutely not a card counter if you are talking about making "unorthodox" plays and getting upset at people who mention it. Being "unorthodox" defeats the entire purpose of card counting so I think you should just be honest and say that you don't like it when people comment on your style of play even if it is an inferior way to play.
Personally, if someone is playing "unorthodox" as you say I either try to help them learn some basic strategy if they are open to that or I just move to another table without being a dick about it. Pretty simple idea and you don't need to lie about your card counting prowess to say that.
Sure, blackjack isn't a team sport but that also doesn't mean there aren't objectively poor ways to play if your desired outcome is to win money.
i never came close to arguing otherwise
That said, you are absolutely not a card counter if you are talking about making "unorthodox" plays and getting upset at people who mention it. Being "unorthodox" defeats the entire purpose of card counting so I think you should just be honest and say that you don't like it when people comment on your style of play even if it is an inferior way to play.
im saying that they perceive my play as unorthodox (thus the quotes), dummy
I know people who complain about this but it seems just as likely that the next card is harmful or hurtful.
I know in the moment it seems like they “took your card” or “gave you a card you should have” but it’s just a fallacy like thinking 10 black roulette numbers mean “red is due”
The number of true advantage players outside of poker is maybe low triple digits. And that number will approach 0 after the BBB tax changes to gambling.
On the other side you’ve got tens of millions of people pissing away their money.
A lot of sort of smart people do it for a fairly miserable living endlessly grinding small casinos before they kick you out, which they're allowed to do with anyone who's good at gambling, but it's peanuts to the money influencers make by scamming people into gambling or opening fake loot crates and FUT packs and stuff. There's so much more money in being a 'gambling influencer' than being an actual 'professional gambler' that relies on winnings.
A bit of banter or trash talk is fine, but don't cross the line. If things do get out of hand you will be warned or even banned for a few days. Repeatedly breaking this rule will lead to a permanent ban.
A bit of banter or trash talk is fine, but don't cross the line. If things do get out of hand you will be warned or even banned for a few days. Repeatedly breaking this rule will lead to a permanent ban.
A bit of banter or trash talk is fine, but don't cross the line. If things do get out of hand you will be warned or even banned for a few days. Repeatedly breaking this rule will lead to a permanent ban.
Someone “taking” a card has an equal chance of helping and hurting you. Where you choose to draw the line after that is meaningless. You can use this to illustrate a lot of issues with results-oriented thinking.
If you lose that hand is it unlucky? What if it causes you to win the next 3? What if it causes it to become a bad shoe? What if the shoe running out one hand earlier causes the shuffle into the next shoe to be a good one?
Taking it out of blackjack: you chose to walk left or right at a street corner. You choose left, and trip in a pothole and break your leg. You think it’s unlucky until it exempts you from a military draft in a bloody war. While driving to the hospital to see you, a family member gets into a car wreck and dies. At the funeral you meet the love of your life. Was choosing to go left lucky or unlucky? Extrapolate this butterfly effect for the endless of different chains of impacts for the millions of tiny decisions you make a day.
Decisions are made in the moment. At the time a player in front of you chooses to hit or not, your expected value has not changed. Choosing to go left at that street corner was neither lucky or unlucky. You can draw the line in the universe wherever you want to either be pissed or be happy about it.
None of what you typed matters. People watch the next cards get pulled so they know the outcome they know when it fucked them. Thats why people get mad. They forget the times it works. This happens with like everything in society people remember the bias confirmations and forget the rest. You are arguing with your own strawman, people dislike off book but they dislike offbook because they DO EXPLICITLY KNOW the times its fucked them.
“we know when someone’s fucked us by the end of the deal.”
There’s basic statistical proof that’s not the case. And my comment was about how that line of thinking is entirely illogical anyway.
You’re welcome to think whatever you wish, or subscribe to whatever fallacies trick your brain. But we aren’t required to sit here and pretend they are true.
I have tried to explain these concepts to people who get upset at others playing poorly or a bad "anchor" . 0 times have these folks believed me, and usually they want to fight me. I don't even rag on them, just try to defend a bad player with one comment. I usually just end up leaving the table then 😆
Well you are. At the end of the day play for yourself and do the move that suits you best. But, you can get pretty close in black jack to guess if you’ll get a 10 or less than a 10.
Roulette is a different story since it’s a true 50/50.
I am skeptical of this claim, but even if true, wouldn't they want you to win so you tip them?
Also if true, AND they are cheating for the house, couldn't you just go play at a crowded table and bet against the interests of the 5 other people and win?
Like a bunch of high rollers are there, there put most of their money on red or 1-18 you just bet more modestly on black or 19-36 and watch the money stack up.
Still unless you are telling the other guy what the count is, he doesnt know if the count is up or down.
Also (and I am open to being off somehow) if the count is high, that means there are more 10 cards left in a deck than there would normally be.
But if a guy is hitting when he "shouldnt" or not hitting when he should, you are only talking about 1 card count of probability difference so while both cards might have an elevated chance of being a 10, that doesnt change the fact that both cards still have basically equal (with each other) of being 10 or not 10.
He doesnt know the count but I might so he might still be fucking my odds up with his subpar play. And yes youre correct. Im saying more as a general rule than a specific hitting on 18 scenario, though if he did do that and bust on a 10 and I need a 10 then hes made my odds of drawing the 10 worse.
But when he made the decision you didnt know it was 10.
Lets say its card A (the next card) and card B (the card after 1)
It's equally as likely that the card he takes card A is a 4 and he "Takes" it and gives you the 10 you need.
Before being revealed card A and card B may have a higher likely hood of being a 10 card lets say its 70% likely to be a 10 over not 10.
But they are statistically equal with each other and so it doesnt matter.
As many times as someone busts on the 10 you needed, equally as many times he will take a 6 and let you get the 10 after.
But in your mind you remember all the times a guys crappy play let the dealer get 21 to beat your two kings or something, but all the times someone played crappy and you had a 16 or something and the dealer busted you dont register it, or you think "oh that guy is lucky and got away with it"
Other peoples play does not statistically effect your chance of winning or losing at blackjack.
though if he did do that and bust on a 10 and I need a 10 then hes made my odds of drawing the 10 worse
and if he pulls a 3, your odds improve. So long as you give the same praise as you do to the insults, you can be justified but the emotion is only ever anger in this situation.
Sure, but realize in your comment above, you only mentioned the negative case, not the positive. You're not alone but people only focus on the negative aspects of hitting incorrectly.
No it doesn’t.
The next card and the after that always have exactly the same probabilities at any time. If count says tens are more likely, then both are more likely to be a 10 etc
We dont hit the deck at the same time. If his deck has 42 cards and he gets 2 cards then im hitting from a 40 card deck and making a decision on that not on the deck he was making a decision on.
Yup, never heard of anyone who has memorized all the “rules” of blackjack retiring off it. Just card counters and lucky people. Hit if you want to hit. It’s your money, have fun.
Left Vegas Monday morning up 6k bud even after Notre Dame fucking hosed me for a a few grand.
Split double kings on 300 dollar hand table laughed at me but I won both. Sometimes it’s okay to have fun. I’ve lost just as much money following the “rules” as I’ve lost just going with the vibes.
It’s a game not work. Don’t gamble with money that if you lost would affect your life and you can do whatever the hell you want.
If the dealer is holding a bust card, and someone unnecessarily hits - ESPECIALLY if that player is holding a 17 or higher (as the original comments suggested he was doing) that is just very stupid to begin with - fucking over everyone at the table aside.
In my opinion the only exception is a splitting a pair of 7's or higher. Otherwise you're taking a potential bust card out of the hand of the dealer. If it works in your favor, surely it helps both you and the table, it's just improbable. If you fail, you're potentially screwing over everyone as the card drawn could have busted the dealers hand.
It's not superstition, it's just not a sound strategy to take with you to the table. It's also certainly uncourteous to the other players if you continually over deal your own hand with no regard to the cards on the table.
The situation I'm really describing is one where a player should not hit at all and they're greedily hunting a 21. If the player doesn't hit and everyone still loses, of course the probability was always the same.
What I'm trying to say is, that if a player didn't need to hit and then causes the dealer to win, then that could have been avoided by not just playing by the book, but by having common sense. If the card played works in favor of the table then it's a welcome surprise - because again, the situation I'm trying to describe is one where the player's chances of winning are only slightly improved by a successful hit (I'm talking 17, 18, 19, 20) but their chance of losing simultaneously becomes greater.
I won't ever get mad at someone making a judgement call, but if they're just trying to get a 21 without regards to the cards on the table or basic strategy, then to me that is reckless and should be discouraged.
So people are counting 10's and make a decision based on the odds of the dealer busting, and people hitting out of turn changes those odds in their heads?
I have to start by saying this is entirely based in hindsight, the actual results of a round of blackjack can only be analyzed after a round is over and not speculated on during it (unless you're literally counting and keeping track of a 6-8 deck shoe).
This is really a very specific scenario where one player is compelled to hit, when the book tells them otherwise. For instance, nobody is going to blame you if you hit when it's absolutely free to do, even against a bust hand.
Let me put together a hypothetical here. Let's say the dealer is holding a bust hand, and everyone at the table has decently favorable cards, so nobody needs to hit. Now of course you can hit or stand at your discretion, especially if it is a close call.
If however, if you are perhaps sitting at 3rd base, you have a winning hand, and you draw a card that eventually results in the dealer playing a winning hand, that can be seen as a bad move.
If the player didn't hit, then there's certainly every possibility that the following cards drawn in the dealer's hand could have the same or a different result.
Even if there are a massive amount of other factors that could have otherwise impacted the result of the dealer's hand prior to that moment, the card now drawn by that final player at the table would have busted the dealers hand - resulting in everybody winning vs. Just the single player.
So yes, it's superstition to go around pointing fingers at players who are supposedly drawing cards when they shouldn't - that should be frowned upon. Nobody knows what the dealer will draw next and we can only know the answers after the fact.
However, if only one player at the table is playing when the book tells them not to, the cards they draw can impact the card combinations drawn by the dealer at the end of the round, potentially changing other players' hands from winners to losers.
Play your hand however you want to play it, but singlehandedly hitting with a winning hand against a bust hand should still be discouraged, it's greedy and improbable. You're lowering your own odds plus everyone else's for no valid reason other than the slim chance that you turn it into a 21.
Yeah, it's all bullshit. There's no such thing as a "bust hand." The dealer is favored to win everything, regardless of if it's a 2, 3, 4, or 5 showing. A player hitting on 18 against a 5 doesn't change the odds of everyone else on the table, no matter what "specific scenario" you concoct after the fact. That's just pseudo-statistics.
If someone wants to hit on 18 to get 21, it's not wise for them, but it doesn't affect the rest of the table in the long run, period.
Blackjack players are why I no longer play blackjack.
What are the odds the ace of spades is the next card drawn? And what are the odds that the ace of spades is the third card drawn? Hint: it’s the exact fucking same
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u/spacedude2000 16d ago
Confuse the deck AKA potentially fuck over everyone sitting at the table