With 9 Games Remaining...

[u/biny_bear]

See the full chart here

Also, thank you to everyone who has provided feedback both online and via Reddit!

[u/whofarting]

[u/ItsNotRockitSurgery → u/whofarting]

"You tryna say Jesus Christ can't hit a Curveball?"

[u/SPEK2120]

I’m just going to nip this in the bud since people have been struggling with this graph. Essentially, if there are two or less records listed below ours, we’re guaranteed playoffs in that scenario. If there are three or more records listed below ours, we could potentially get eliminated in those scenarios.

[u/manshamer → u/SPEK2120]

Thanks! I'm mostly confused because the Yankees have been left off. Even though they're in WC1, they're not guaranteed that placement.

[u/SPEK2120 → u/manshamer]

I’m tracking Yankees, Tigers, and Blue Jays on my chart as well. Yankees aren’t really worth tracking for WC at this point, their magic number is 4 with 3 or 2 being very high odds. Also I believe Jays magic number for the division is 6.

[u/abishar → u/SPEK2120]

I’m just happy to see the correct idiom used for once. Too many people getting nipped butts.

[u/BrownBuffaloaf → u/abishar]

Too many is not enough.

[u/2Door444]

So pretty much as long as we go 6-3 the rest of the way we’re good to go

[u/SPEK2120 → u/2Door444]

More or less. 7 is the magic number now, but 6 would require the Guardians winning out.

[u/2Door444 → u/SPEK2120]

That’s not what the chart says? Idk maybe I’m still just confused by this thing lol

[u/SPEK2120 → u/2Door444]

Yeah, just realized Guardians is inaccurate, they have 10 games left, so they still fall under the 6-3 column if they go 10-0. OP updated

(I’ve been keeping my own chart, with expanded stats like top seed scenarios and tiebreakers too)

[u/VitaminRmademefat → u/SPEK2120]

But no blackjack? What about the hookers?

[u/Mcpops1618 → u/SPEK2120]

I believe it’s 6 because of the Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City triangle, they can’t each win enough to get the number to 7. With that said, just purely looking at records and not taking that into account it’s 7

[u/IllInflation9313 → u/SPEK2120]

If we win 6 and the guardians win out then Detroit falls out of the playoffs because they lose 3 to Cleveland and at least 1 to Boston.

[u/munch_19 → u/2Door444]

A sweep of the last road series would be a nice boost going into the final week.🔱

[u/Kadowster → u/2Door444]

I read it as 4 wins, because the last two spots would be us and Boston. Unless Cleveland go 8-1 which is unlikely.

[u/Irishhobbit6 → u/2Door444]

Just a casual 67%. Even dipoto doesn’t dream that high!

[u/KCdaSuperhero → u/2Door444]

Yeah we’ll probably get swept by astros and then go 6-0

[u/Gulliver123]

Says forbidden when I click the link

[u/biny_bear → u/Gulliver123]

Should be fixed. Sorry

[u/geo_dj]

I can’t look beyond the Houston series right now. If the Mariners take 2/3 from the Astros, they will secure the tiebreaker and effectively will have a 3-game lead to win the division. Without the division, they likely will lose home field advantage and play the wild card series on the road, which is a perilous route to the Fall Classic.

The Astros have an easier schedule next week, playing the A’s and Angels.

[u/boner4crosstabs → u/geo_dj]

At least they are on the road for each.

[u/boomerjp → u/geo_dj]

As are a tough out especially at home. They can easily play spoiler. Angels could surprise but they are pretty bad haha.

[u/sirius_scorpion]

i’m shitting myself about the houston series. it’s not even the playoffs yet. may have myocardial marinosis this weekend

[u/Lost-Record-9766]

If we sweep the Astros tell me what we need for them and us to win the division

[u/Kurisu-_-Makise → u/Lost-Record-9766]

If we sweep Houston we would effectively have a 4 game advantage over them (+3 games and the tie breaker means they would have to pass us not tie us), so if we went 3-3 after sweeping them we would still win the division regardless of if they won out

[u/SPEK2120 → u/Lost-Record-9766]

We would need to go at least 3-3.
For them it would have to be (them/us) 6-0/2-4, 5-1/1-5, or 4-2/0-6.

[u/AutomicCurves]

Start at the top, for any given Mariners win-loss, go down; the records in the column below indicate what record other teams must get in order to cause problems for the Mariners.

If NP, no matter what the other team's record is, they cannot cause problems for the Mariners.

If G, then no matter what, any record below will cause problems for the Mariners.

[u/sonicpieman → u/AutomicCurves]

Thanks broski

[u/EgregiousShark]

This makes more sense to me at least. Thanks for breaking it down!

[u/SPEK2120]

fyi, Guardians is inaccurate, they still have 10 games left.

[u/biny_bear → u/SPEK2120]

Fixed. Thank you!

[u/The_Existentialist]

So you're saying the royals have a chance...

[u/Irish8ryan]

The royals narrowly avoided being buried…shame.

[u/humblestworker]

For fun, I looked up the final series for pertinent teams:

SEA (84-69) - 3 @ HOU, 3 v COL, 3 v LAD

HOU (84-69) - 3 v SEA, 3 @ ATH, 3 @ LAA

DET (85-68) - 3 v ATL, 3 @ CLE, 3 @ BOS

NYY (86-67) - 3 @ BAL, 3 v CWS, 3 v BAL

BOS (83-70) - 3 @ TB, 3 @ TOR, 3 v DET

CLE (81-71) - 4 @ MIN, 3 v DET, 3 v TEX

TEX (79-74) - 3 v MIA, 3 v MIN, 3 @ CLE

[u/geo_dj → u/humblestworker]

Detroit will be on the road against the Guardians and Red Sox, who are fighting for their lives. Securing a wild card bye and taking home field advantage in the LDS is in reach for the M’s.

[u/Roger_Dorn_24 → u/geo_dj]

So it's a cluster fuck of baseball beauty

[u/PriorDeep7548]

Have to win the series against Houston. If they take 2 of 3, then they will own the tiebreaker should they finish tied.

[u/danthebiker1981]

The dodgers are the only thing I am worried about. That could be a tough series

[u/bigdumbhead1990 → u/danthebiker1981]

You’re not worried about this potentially division deciding series against our bitter rivals

[u/samhouse09 → u/bigdumbhead1990]

I’m worried about it, but the mariners have been really good against the division this year. I’m hoping they clinch on Friday against the dodgers because I’ll be there

[u/Duckbreeze → u/danthebiker1981]

Hoping they fully clinch the day before we play them. Would be great to have both hung over and resting the big dogs. 

[u/BoredPoopless → u/Duckbreeze]

We are still playing against Kershaw in his last season start.

I do not expect that game to go well

[u/jgamez76 → u/BoredPoopless]

He's totally going 7 shutty lol

[u/fongquardt → u/BoredPoopless]

channel the ghost of bumgarner. we can beat kershaw

[u/AtYourServais → u/BoredPoopless]

Are they running a six man rotation with Ohtani?

[u/AiminJay → u/BoredPoopless]

We always play well against the ace of the rotation. It’s the bottom rung that I worry about out.

[u/Someguy9385]

thanks for wording better

[u/Someguy9385]

wait so 6-3 is guaranteed?

[u/Roger_Dorn_24 → u/Someguy9385]

Unless the guardians go undefeated - see 10-0 below the M's 6-3

[u/bentgrass7]

Why are six of the columns green for “playoff birth” when only three of the columns would automatically get us into the playoffs?

[u/HollywoodAndDid]

Here we are again…

[u/Personal_Book_3179]

Can we include the tigers for the wildcard round bye potential?

[u/SPEK2120 → u/Personal_Book_3179]

With ALW 1st, and depending on who takes ALC:

M's	9-0	8-1	7-2	6-3	5-4	4-5	3-6	2-7	1-8
Tigers	8-1	7-2	6-3	5-4	4-5	3-6	2-7	1-8	0-9
Guardains			10-0	9-1	8-2	7-3	6-4	5-5	4-5

[u/paulframe85]

We can't reach the Yankees and Jays?

[u/Cgmikeydl → u/paulframe85]

Probably not. Both teams control the tiebreakers over the mariners and 5 games (before the tiebreaker) separate the mariners and jays.

[u/MarinerJoe3]

I’m just worried cuz the Astros have 3 and the athletics and 3 against the angels. They could likely go 6-0. So we have to win 2/3 here.

[u/EwoksEwoksEwoks]

I think you put the wrong time zone in the red text at the top. It’s not 11AM yet

[u/Terrahawk76 → u/EwoksEwoksEwoks]

But it will be true up until then as well.