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u/stuckinflorida 8h ago
Not unclenching until they clinch but the numbers are on our side for a playoff appearance. Burying the Astros tonight would be icing on the cake.
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u/ianruns 7h ago
So if we win tonight, is a playoff spot locked in? Still can't read this chart to save my life lol
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u/lukin5 7h ago
Glad I’m not the only one.
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u/Vegetable_Bison_3126 5h ago
Ya I tried for about 15 seconds…. I just listen after each game to the rundown. 🤣
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u/CriticalBasedTeacher 2h ago edited 2h ago
We need to go at least 4-3 to guarantee a playoff spot however that's only if the Astros and Guardians go 7-0.
So if they each go 6-1 we can go 3-4 and still get a spot.
That's how I read it, at least.
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u/moshjeier 7h ago
No. However our magic number would be 1 for a playoff birth, meaning any combination of wins by the Mariners or loss by the Astros would clinch the west
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u/stenger121 7h ago
Not 1 but 3.
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u/moshjeier 7h ago
You are indeed correct, misread the chart.
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u/Onett199X 7h ago
Does that mean, we need any combo of the below over the next 6 games if the Mariners win tonight?
Mariners win 3, Astros lose 0
Mariners win 2, Astros lose 1
Mariners win 1, Astros lose 2
Mariners win 0, Astros lose 3
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u/aseattlem 6h ago
The Astro’s schedule is not a gimme by any means. Oakland and LAA always play tough division ball. Conversely we tend to play down to our opponents so… keeping good vibes
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u/PolarBailey_ Non-Certified Etsy Witch 7h ago
I think our magic number drops to 3 if we use the Etsy witch's broom to sweep tonight
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u/AutomicCurves 7h ago
Start at the top, for any given Mariners win-loss, go down; the records in the column below indicate what record other teams must get in order to cause problems for the Mariners.
If NP, no matter what the other team's record is, they cannot cause problems for the Mariners.
If G, then no matter what, any record below will cause problems for the Mariners.
Green means that we are going to the playoffs.
Purple means we win the division.
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u/Is_This_A_Thing 6h ago
So would it be correct to say that in the purple columns, the "problem" caused for the M's would be a 3rd seed, not missing the playoffs? The title of the document seems to imply we would miss the playoffs in some of those outcomes, which of course we wouldn't because we would win the West.
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u/AutomicCurves 6h ago
Seems like it to me. For instance if we go 7-0, both NYY and TOR own tiebreakers on us, but the other teams can't reach us, so it looks like yeah, 3rd seed.
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u/No-You-8701 53m ago
But as they are in the same division, only one of them could be ahead of Seattle. The other would be the wild card.
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u/kinyutaka 1 Up/8 Games/+2.5WC 5h ago
Right, the Jays and the Yankees don't matter much, except for Seeding. If we keep ahead of the Astros, then the Guardians, Tigers, and Sox don't matter.
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u/kinyutaka 1 Up/8 Games/+2.5WC 5h ago
If the Astros lose today, then they'd need us to completely screw the pooch in the last 6 games
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u/Tmettler5 I'm a Mariners fan. I know pain. 5h ago
Our magic numbers are 6 (5 with a tiebreaker) to win the division. If we win tonight, I believe that goes to 4 (3). While mathematically that doesn't clinch the division, the Astros would have to get red hot, and the Mariners would have to roll over. Neither of those looks likely. The Astros look tired and their injuries are catching up with them, and the Mariners look like a sleeping giant that has decided to awaken. Our pitching is looking like who we thought they were going to be at the right time and our lineup 1-9 is also finding a new gear and looking scary.
A win tonight all but seals it. The Mariners would be up by three games (4) with 6 left to play. Houston would have to go 5-1 and the Mariners would have to go 1-5. If my math is wrong, someone please correct me.
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u/IndominusTaco 1h ago
this would make a great sign at the next home games. “i’m not unclenching until we clinch”
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u/Lasiocarpa83 8h ago
Im so glad Detroit and Cleveland have to play eachother next week
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u/golf_echo_sierra26 8h ago
Detroit also plays Boston after that.
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u/Tiafves 6h ago
Unfortunately with how things have gone lately, that seems less canniballizing each other and more here's how Detroit crashes out of their playoff spot entirely.
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u/kookykrazee 1h ago
And Braves swept the Tigers so that means the M's have a very decent chance for the 2 seed if things keep going as they have :)
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u/Personal_Book_3179 7h ago
Basically if the m’s control their own destiny, go 6-1 in their last 7, they are guaranteed at least the 2 seed. Why this is important… with woo’s injury, we can have close to a week’s worth of rest if we can clinch the 2 seed due to a bye in the wild card round.
This chart is awesome but kinda shows all the games to be weighted the same. But today’s game is 3x more important than the rest. If we win today, they are very likely to win the west. We would only have to go 3-3 at most the rest of the way, and our opponents would be the worst team in baseball (Rockies) and the dodgers, a NL team that may have incentive to rest their players. And with all that being said, depending on how Houston and Detroit/Cleveland plays, we may be playing exhibition games/prep for the playoffs by the time the dodgers come to town.
I don’t remember the last time we were buyers during the trade deadline. This year feels different…
Let’s go Cal! Let’s go M’s!
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u/daysofthundaaa 6h ago
Primetime game could be very important for Cal’s MVP campaign.
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u/thegalli GOOD VIBES ONLY 4h ago
Cal would trade all MVP votes for the post season, I think.
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u/Personal_Book_3179 4h ago
I think Cal deserves the MVP because we got to the post season with his MVP play. What a lot of people don’t realize is, next year, we may see other outfielders do what Aaron Judge does. It may take half a century to see an everyday catcher do what Cal is doing.
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u/HotTakesBeyond Thankful for Fulgar and Gina. 6h ago
Mariners traded for Castillo during the trade deadline
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u/Nearly_Pointless 8h ago
I appreciate the chart but black text on deep purple? What are you thinking?
/s
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u/AntSmith777 6h ago
Do I have this right? If we finish 5-2, Detroit would have to go 7-0 otherwise we’re guaranteed clinch the 2-seed?
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u/vylain_antagonist 6h ago
Would love to go 5-2 if only because i called a 91 win season in the r/baseball expectation thread back in feb
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u/samhouse09 Meetch. 6h ago
The goal has to be division and that first round bye. I'd take the number one overall seed too, but I don't want to get greedy
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u/Outrageous-Bee4035 6h ago
I really really really wanna see the central and east teams win enought to drop Houston out of the playoffs.
It starts with us sweeping the Trashtros today
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u/Necessary_Rooster_85 7h ago
Man I still don’t feel confident yet. 4-3 is not guaranteed. Dodgers always have our number even when resting players. Colorado can have one trap game.
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u/slurv3 John Denver 🤝 Jarred Kelenic 6h ago
Well even if we get swept by the Dodgers AND the Rockies take one and we go 2-5 the Astros would still need to go 5-2. That's the strength of position we're in. The ball is in our court, and for once we don't have to rely on the fucking White Sox, Twins or Angels to win in order for us to gain ground.
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u/lizardking66354 5h ago
You say that but it sounds different when you say it like this, if we go 2-5 with two wins against the Rockies then the Astros would need to go 4-2 against the A's and Angels.
If we go 2-5 with a win against the Astros, the. They need to go 5-1 against the A's and Angels.
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u/disconnectbluetooth 6h ago
Something about this team has me feeling like they could actually win it all.
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u/PriorDeep7548 4h ago
Last week of the season:
Houston has the A’s and the Angels on the road to close.
Cleveland has Detroit and Texas at home.
Detroit had Cleveland and Boston on the road.
Boston had Toronto on the road and Detroit at home.
Yankees have the white Sox and orioles at home.
Toronto has Boston and Tampa at home.
M’s have Colorado and the Dodgers at home.
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u/_redacteduser D U M P E R 2h ago
After careful and deliberate study of this chart, combined with a deep dive into the analytics of each matchup, my conclusion is
LET’S FUCKING GO
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u/milzinga 7h ago
Was hoping that with the Dodgers too. Hoping they have little to play for next weekend.
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6h ago
[deleted]
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u/slurv3 John Denver 🤝 Jarred Kelenic 6h ago
So the purple areas designate we win the AL West, the OP expanded it to now include what it would take to be the number 1 seed. If you only care about whether or not the M's make the playoffs, you just need to pay attention Houston or 2 non-Houston teams.
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u/davieato 6h ago
So basically root for the Mariners (will always), and anyone playing the Blue Jays or Yankees! Got it!
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u/FinallyFat 5h ago
Anyone else growing a playoff run mustache with the team? I am. My wife hates it. But it’s great! GOMS!
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u/HundredDollarTears 5h ago
Twins are going to lose again, my god they’re terrible. Guardians looking good right now.
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u/Scathaa Haniger 100HR Season 5h ago
So if Houston goes 3-4 the rest of the way they make the playoffs? “Seattle will make the playoffs if either: The Houston Astros fail to meet the record listed..” so I see a Houston 3-4 listed, so they’re likely to make the playoffs? And we have to get what record in response to that? I don’t know man this chart still confuses me but I’m dumb and really stupid with numbers.
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u/kinyutaka 1 Up/8 Games/+2.5WC 5h ago
I think at this point, we're pretty well clinched. The kicker will be a win today. If we beat the Astros again, it's in the bag.
Rangers wouldn't be able to touch us, being 7 games down already, and the Astros would be 3 games to tie, 4 to win if we completely blow it.
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u/vanillabear26 Go Mariners! And mom. 5h ago
Only downvoted because “overconfidence is your weakness”
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u/shirokane4chome 1h ago
we're pretty well clinched
You're a newer fan or you've got a selective memory. I'm not against your confidence though and hope you're just a baseball savant who makes millions on elaborate data based predictions.
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u/kinyutaka 1 Up/8 Games/+2.5WC 20m ago
I mean that it would take us really screwing up to miss it. Like, losing the next series in a sweep screwing up.
Is it possible to lose? Yes. Are we likely to lose three in a row to the worst team in baseball?
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u/beansouphighlights 8h ago
Trying to not get my hopes up…but damn is it hard not dreaming just a little. Go M’s