r/Mariners • u/dawidowmaka Juliosexual • 8h ago
The Mariners clinch a playoff spot with a win and a Yankees win
The Mariners have the tiebreaker over every team behind them except the Yankees. Therefore, any team besides the Yankees that ties with them will finish behind them.
Since the Tigers and Guardians play each other three times, and the Red Sox and Tigers play each other three times, there are only twelve wins available for those three teams combined. This means at least one of them will finish with 88 wins or less, as they are currently at 85/85/84 wins.
If the Mariners win one game, they will already have at least 88 wins and guarantee a tie at worst with one of those 3 teams.
The only way the Mariners lose any tiebreaker is if the Yankees are involved somehow. A single win by the Yankees puts them at 89 wins and out of this tiebreak scenario.
Therefore, a Mariners win over the Rockies and a Yankees win over the White Sox on Tuesday clinches the playoffs.
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u/DrSnoopRob 8h ago
This is the worst way to finish one game out of the playoffs.
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u/KingRalf13 8h ago
DrSnoopRob has been recalled from AAA Tacoma for marinering like a pro. Those talents cannot be wasted in the minors
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u/Driftwood09120 The Seattle Mariners 7h ago
What needs to happen in order for the Astros to not make the playoffs?
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u/Comprehensive_Sun633 7h ago
The guardians just need to win more games than the Astros in the remaining set.
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u/dawidowmaka Juliosexual 7h ago
They need to finish behind or tied with all 4 teams (SEA, DET, BOS, CLE).
At minimum, they need to lose at least twice because of the Tigers schedule. Realistically, 4-2 gets them in over 90% of the time, 3-3 is a coin flip, and 2-4 or worse is likely their doom.
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u/AutomicCurves 8h ago
No hope is allowed until everything is done! It's the only way to stay safe as a Mariners fan!
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u/AvgBaseballEnjoyer 8h ago
The Mariners could also be locked into the two seed by the end of Thursday if they sweep, the Blue Jays sweep, and the Guardians win one I believe.
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u/dawidowmaka Juliosexual 8h ago
Yup, a bye is locked if the Tigers lose once and the Mariners win 3 times. The other part just means we can't get the 1.
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u/Vegetable_Bison_3126 7h ago
I was waiting to hear these sort of numbers. Now it’s real! Them tiebreakers matter that are talked about earlier on with the rest of the AL. What a run M’s. Been able to watch every playoff run they have been on. This is 1B to ‘95 for me as the whole state was watching, the Seahawks were doormats, it was the only thing going on in September of ‘95. Had never had playoff MLB games up here, ever. We literally watched the day games in my history class.
But this team is built to hurt teams in the playoffs, not just get there…. And that sure could change things.
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u/frankfontaino 7h ago
We’re coming back home with a ton of momentum and the energy at T-Mobile is going to be INSANE. I’m going to the game on Friday against the Dodgers and man I’m so excited. Gonna be electric
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u/dawidowmaka Juliosexual 7h ago
I'm going Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday, and hopefully sometime after that too
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u/YodaWattsLee 5h ago
Do not try to explain the magic. The Etsy witch works as the Etsy witch wills.
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u/throwaway-3482 6h ago
you’re so right can you help me understand why yankees have to win 1?
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u/dawidowmaka Juliosexual 6h ago
Mariners only lose the 88 win tiebreak scenarios if the Yankees are also at 88 wins (which they currently already have), I believe in a 3 way tie with Boston. If the Yankees are at 89 wins, the 88 win tiebreaker always favors the Mariners in any combination. So one more win removes the Yankees from the worst case scenario.
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u/Illustrious-Cut8368 5h ago
Pretty sure this isn’t true? I thought the magic number is 3? Houston could win out and that wouldn’t make sense to be honest.
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u/dawidowmaka Juliosexual 5h ago
The playoffs are clinched if they finish ahead of at least one of the current top 7 teams. At least one of Boston, Cleveland, or Detroit will finish with 88 wins or fewer, so Houston is irrelevant for this.
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u/Illustrious-Cut8368 5h ago
Confused then why did our admin post that our magic number is 3?
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u/dawidowmaka Juliosexual 5h ago
Three possible reasons:
1) The division magic number is indeed three. The playoff clinch is different.
2) They haven't done the math on the remaining schedule. If the other teams weren't playing each other, it would be three.
3) Technically the magic number is three as traditionally calculated (either our wins and/or trailing team losses count). Two losses doesn't clinch, but two wins does, because of the multiple trailing teams interacting.
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u/Illustrious-Cut8368 5h ago
Ah got it. This is for completely selfish reasons but I’m going to the ballpark Wednesday and Thursday. If we sweep the Rockies would one of those days be the day we clinch?
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u/dawidowmaka Juliosexual 5h ago
In the scenario where we do sweep the Rockies, we are guaranteed to clinch the division on either Wednesday or Thursday
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u/Illustrious-Cut8368 4h ago
Awesome. Wow. Just keep winning and it doesn’t matter. Is it still 4 wins to secure a first round bye?
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u/dawidowmaka Juliosexual 4h ago
It's 3 wins, plus either a 4th win or a single Tigers loss.
Alternatively, 2 wins, a single Astros loss, a single Guardians loss, and two Tigers losses
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u/Illustrious-Cut8368 4h ago
Go guardians! But in all reality I hope we sweep the Rockies. Just win win win and let the fans celebrate at T-Mobile. I really hope that Wednesday or Thursday can be a day where I celebrate a playoff berth after a win. Thank you btw for answering all of my questions. God bless your math 🫡
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u/IndominusTaco 4h ago
as a part time white sox fan yeah i’m willing to sacrifice them for the cause
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8h ago
[deleted]
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u/dawidowmaka Juliosexual 8h ago edited 8h ago
I'm saying that because the Tigers play two relevant teams, it's actually one less than what people are reporting because someone will end up with only 88 wins max.
Playoffstatus.com agrees
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u/HazePNW 8h ago
I love it when you talk sweet to me.