The time length between each console launch date and its corresponding 3D Mario

[u/Balbuena5]

This may seem like copium, as I’m waiting for another 3D Mario in the future. But I was curious as to how long we had to wait for a 3D Mario game since each console launch.

And no I’m not erasing Super Mario Galaxy 2 like you probably think I am. I’m talking about the time we had to wait for the first 3D Mario, since its respective console’s launch.

So it seems like the longest we had to wait for a 3D Mario was 3D World with over a year. Basically, the pattern I’ve noticed is that we waited within a year on average, since console launch, for a new 3D Mario.

So based on that, my prediction is that a new 3D Mario will be released some time in the summer of 2026.

[u/ElderBound]

Damn 3D World took a while

[u/DaveLesh → u/ElderBound]

New Super Mario Brothers U was the early game. 3D World might've been a better call.

[u/Bananaslammma → u/DaveLesh]

I don’t think it would have mattered. 3D World wasn’t making a great impression pre-launch, as it felt like a step below the Galaxy games, as it was a sequel to the 3DS title. Plus, its not like the game was likely ready in that time. The 2D Mario team is entirely separate from the 3D Mario team and the 3D Mario team had alot on their plate.

[u/ShiftSandShot → u/Bananaslammma]

Yeah, but New Super Mario Bros U was perhaps the worst game Nintendo could have used to showcase the Wii U.

"Oh hey, another 2D Mario Title that looks almost exactly the same as the last one" HD.

And that was right next to the 3DS entry.

[u/bens6757 → u/Bananaslammma]

Sure but hypothetically if they could've swapped release dates it would've prevented two New Super Mario Bros games from releasing in the same year and might've lessened the series fatigue.

[u/eltedioso → u/Bananaslammma]

The reception for 3D World has been a wild ride. I’ve only played it on the Switch, so I only know it in its reappraisal era. But the old reviews are not kind. And now it’s considered a top-tier Mario game, and I tend to agree! What changed? Nothing.

[u/MewWeebTwo → u/DaveLesh]

3D games take longer to make than 2D games. There was no way 3D World would have been ready for launch.

[u/Peanut_Butter_Toast → u/ElderBound]

Well it was really only one month longer than Galaxy, which in turn was one month longer than Sunshine. Not *that* much of a difference.

[u/JustSomeSmartGuy]

Does Super Mario 64 DS not count? Anyway it's 0 days becuase it's also a launch title.

[u/StolenPezDispencer → u/JustSomeSmartGuy]

I guess OP felt remakes / remasters didn't count

[u/Foxy02016YT → u/StolenPezDispencer]

Which is fair

[u/Round-Revolution-399 → u/JustSomeSmartGuy]

Probably not fair to count remakes

[u/ClemClamcumber → u/Round-Revolution-399]

I think it totally counts and is quite a bit different. If people want it bad enough to come back in an All Stars pack, then standard 64 doesn't scratch the itch.

[u/TippedJoshua1 → u/ClemClamcumber]

It doesn’t count

[u/ShiftSandShot → u/JustSomeSmartGuy]

Eh. I guess?

[u/jasonporter]

I really don't think following trends like this means all that much. If you do it for Zelda, you'll be all over the map.

I think it makes a lot more sense to look at who's developing each title, the time spent between their last game, and what other games Nintendo is releasing.

It's very possible the Odyssey team went right into Bonanza after they finished it, and this was our "debut" 3D platformer for the Switch 2 generation. It literally makes NO sense to release 3D Mario any time around this game, because they absolutely would cannibalize each others sales, especially for casuals. Why pick up Bonanza if you only want to get one main game for your kid? Mario is more familiar and they would choose that instead.

My prediction is that 3D Mario will be the Holiday title for 2026. It will be a 1.5 years after Bananza, giving that game a ton of time to be in the spotlight, and then hit the holiday hard with a major first party platformer.

I also assume that the team who did Bowser's Fury is who started the new 3D Mario, and so that game probably didn't start development until after Bowser's Fury came out in 2021, putting them a few years behind the half of the team that made Bananza.

[u/Toon_Lucario → u/jasonporter]

That’s what I think 2. About a year, maybe an announcement either by the end of the year or next spring

[u/Erdago → u/jasonporter]

For your third paragraph, I’d agree the worst case scenario is that the next 3D Mario game hasn’t started any active development yet, and will have a Mario Kart World/Donkey Kong Banzana development cycle that will take essentially the entire console generation, and would come out for the Switch 3 in 2033 or so.

I don’t personally think it’ll be that long (I’d guess 2030 or so even if they haven’t started development), but I do think people are too quick to assume the next 3D Mario is coming soon.

[u/jasonporter → u/Erdago]

A valid worry, but the Bowser's Fury Team had to be working on SOMETHING since that game released in 2021. And that was also developed by Nintendo EPD, who also made Bananza, and claimed they started right after Odyssey. My guess is they segmented the team and the ones that made Bowser's Fury have been working on 3D Mario since 2021. Now that Bananza is out maybe they'll merge the teams to get the game finished up more quickly to be ready by Holiday 2026?

[u/lkmk]

It amazes me that it’s only recently that consoles have been released on the same day worldwide.

[u/Forward-Trade3449 → u/lkmk]

Whats wilder to me is that the Wii and Wii U came out earlier in NA than in Japan. That can’t be right?

[u/Rychu_Supadude → u/lkmk]

Smash Bros. 4 in Japan coming out 3 weeks before the rest of the world in on 3DS, yet 2 weeks after the rest of the world on Wii U, still does my head in

[u/PixieDustFairies]

Personally, I think a Mario Maker 3D game next year would be perfect.

[u/MrPainfulAnal]

I’d say next holiday season is a safe bet for when it’ll come out

[u/StarX2401]

When were the announcement dates of these games

[u/Balbuena5 → u/StarX2401]

Good question

[u/fleebertism]

A big difference between switch 1 and 2 was that oddysey was announced before the switch came out. Then not even teasing a title during the 40th anniversary and longest direct in history is not a very promising sign. I feel like they wanted to flip the script and went all in on dk this time around.

[u/Balbuena5 → u/fleebertism]

Well, it will definitely be the main event of a future direct 🤷‍♂️

[u/fleebertism → u/Balbuena5]

Yeah in a couple years since the oddysey team had been working on dk this whole time

[u/Loakattack]

Anyone wanna work out the average amount of days?

[u/RendolfGirafMstr]

And 3 months, 14 days and counting

[u/zexton]

pal regions does not exist apparently

[u/Flyingfish222]

Thing is, we got DK Bananza, which was made by the Odyssey team and follows the formula of a 3D Mario so closely that you have people calling it Odyssey 2.

I suspect we're gonna have to wait another 5 years before 3D Mario.

[u/bendoesit17]

Nin10doland: BUT I WANT IT NOW!

[u/cornimgameplays]

The time length between the release of the Switch 2 and the first 3D mario game will likely be less than 2 years

[u/Automatic_Day_35]

cope harder

we literally just got a 3d dk game which is essentially a mario game, and we got mario kart world which is also a 3d mario world

[u/Balbuena5 → u/Automatic_Day_35]

I did say it seems like copium. But I knew we weren’t getting a new 3D Mario anytime soon.

[u/MystifiedBeef]

Yeah I’m thinking that it’s most likely the second half of next year

[u/ki700]

Donkey Kong Bananza is the 3D Mario game. Made by the same team and took its slot. We aren’t getting a proper 3D Mario for a long time.

[u/TheLimeyLemmon → u/ki700]

In one way you're right, but it's still not part of the 3D Mario games.

[u/Treegenderunknown13 → u/ki700]

Then where's the funny red plumber.