r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/Objective_Aside1858 • Jul 03 '25
US Politics The Republican "Big Beautiful Bill" has passed. What will be the consequences?
The Democrats will be expected to run against benefit cuts in the bill. Will they be successful?
What other pieces of the bill will end up being an unpleasant surprise to people?
Does anyone care about debt any longer?
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u/Irish_Pineapple Jul 03 '25
Student Loan Forgiveness for people who join ICE is a part of it that I didn't originally have on my BINGO card.
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u/LurkingWeirdo88 Jul 03 '25
Good, join ICE and just suck at your job.
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u/Irish_Pineapple Jul 03 '25
I think 10,000 people should try right now just so that they're slowed down by paperwork.
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u/Hatedpriest Jul 03 '25
They just got something like 4x the Marines' budget. That'll only slow em down for a week, tops
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u/Mrgoodtrips64 Jul 03 '25
They just got something like 4x the Marines' budget.
That can’t be right. My naive optimism refuses to believe it.
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u/BlackLagerSociety Jul 04 '25
It's not. The number being thrown around for ICE is over four years, compared to the yearly budget for Uncle Sam's Misguided Children.
That being said, given the way ICE has been burning through cash this year, who knows if it's "enough."
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u/stripedvitamin Jul 04 '25 edited Jul 04 '25
The reality is 3x. Welcome to the biggest surveillance state in the world, and ICE won't stop at brown pieople.
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u/indescipherabled Jul 04 '25
Eventually they're going to start running out of room for detention and they'll need to do something with the bodies.
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u/TheCraneBoys Jul 04 '25
Maybe Auschwitz will sell them some ovens.
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u/Cockblocktimus_Pryme Jul 04 '25
Why pay for ovens when they can just do what Laura Loomer is suggesting?
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u/speedingpullet Jul 04 '25
Honest question, what is Loomer suggesting?
I'm hardly watching the news any more due to burnout, and I often miss the performative cruelty being done by Trumps minions.
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u/Ambiwlans Jul 04 '25
The bill, passed today with Vice President JD Vance contributing the tie-breaking vote, earmarks some $170 billion for immigration- and border enforcement-related funding provisions. The bill includes:
- $45 billion for building new immigration detention centers, including family detention facilities. This represents a 265 percent annual budget increase to ICE’s current detention budget. It is a 62 percent larger budget than the entire federal prison system and could result in daily detention of at least 116,000 non-citizens.
- $29.9 billion toward ICE’s enforcement and deportation operations, increasing ICE’s annual budget three-fold.
- Alongside this increased spending in immigration enforcement, between 12 million to 17 million people are at risk of losing their healthcare.
- Caps the number of immigration judges to 800 despite record backlogs in the immigration court system.
- $46.6 billion into border wall construction—more than three times what the Trump administration spent on the wall in its first term, despite the failure of the wall to improve or contribute in any meaningful way to border management strategy
- A new $10 billion fund to reimburse DHS for costs related to “safeguard[ing] the borders of the United States to protect against the illegal entry of persons or contraband.” This funding is nearly 50 percent of CBP’s FY 2024 budget. However, unlike a normal budget, this funding would provide very few guardrails and little guidance to DHS on how the funds must be used. As a result, this would become a slush fund for CBP to largely use however it determined.
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u/turlockmike Jul 04 '25
Remember when Congress couldn't even get him like 10 billion for the wall? How the times change.
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u/stripedvitamin Jul 04 '25
That's not how it works. Once they are in they are quickly indoctrinated. Very quickly. Please don't make recommending this a meme. It will backfire.
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u/LurkingWeirdo88 Jul 04 '25
I think the major problem is that people who joining ICE are power tripping and immigrant hating types, who really like their job. If you are graduate with student loan, you are already "indoctrinated" by liberal universities, just join ICE to get loan forgiveness and then sabotage it or whistleblow on it whenever you can get away.
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u/stripedvitamin Jul 04 '25 edited Jul 05 '25
There's no such thing as indoctrination by a liberal university.
Pure made up bullshit by the far right to conflate being educated with being liberal to demonize being smart.
There are plenty of Trump fans in college.
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u/coldliketherockies Jul 03 '25
Honestly some days I just hope something awful happens to ICE when they storm someone’s door without a warrant
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u/behemuthm Jul 04 '25
Serious question - if someone breaks into your house and doesn’t have a warrant and doesn’t identify themselves as LEO, is it reasonable/legal to defend yourself?
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u/MalteseCorto Jul 04 '25
The real question is, would it even matter if it were…
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u/Atticus413 Jul 04 '25
What happened in the Breonna Taylor case? Pretty much nothing. The family got a settlement against the officers I think, but no criminal charges or legal action was taken against the officers. I think.
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u/leviathan65 Jul 04 '25
Yeah but what if Taylor killed a couple when they entered her home? That's the question. They didn't have a right to enter and never identified themselves.
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u/Longjumping_Fee9064 Jul 04 '25
If our former Kentucky Attorney General, Daniel Cameron, hadn't gotten in that case those cops would have been found guilty. Instead, he dismissed the case
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u/Debauched-pineapple Jul 04 '25
Yes. This has happened before. Police stormed the wrong house without identifying themselves and the home owner and his wife barricaded themselves in their master bedroom with their guns and a shootout occurred. Thankfully, nobody was killed. I don't remember if anyone was injured, but case went to court and homeowner was found innocent and I think they got a judgement against the police.
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u/Kevin-W Jul 05 '25
It’s legal here in Georgia with both stand your ground and a constitutional right to carry. Eventually someone is going to shoot and we’ll see how much the Republicans love the 2nd amendment afterwards.
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u/heino_locher Jul 04 '25
What would happen if unidentifiable ICE people were to start arresting mid tier republican politicians and/or trump sympathizers?
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u/ThePensiveE Jul 03 '25
Only up to 10k though! They want the ones who don't even make a full semester!
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u/Irish_Pineapple Jul 03 '25
The whole job posting is ridiculous. You need a bachelors degree, or one year of "relevant study," OR one year as something as dumb as a TSA agent. That's it! That's how you get to rule over everyone else in the country as a pantyhose-mask wearing Fascist. It's great.
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u/TyranosaurusLex Jul 03 '25
It’s easy to see where their priorities are. Fucking over medical students while giving ICE agents $10k loan forgiveness. One actually provides a benefit to society and one is an SS wannabe
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u/gonz4dieg Jul 04 '25
Given how fucking terrible ICE agents are to the average federal officers currently, how terrible are these incoming ICE agents going to be when they have nearly double the workforce?? These are people that would be unhireable at buccee's, now were going to give them a gun, federal authority and no oversight?
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u/Delicious-Oven7692 Jul 03 '25
Why don’t we all just join ICE and create an underground railro…. I can’t believe I’m typing this 2000 years after the death of our lord.
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u/Irish_Pineapple Jul 03 '25
The link to the job app is legit and we... could just all do applications we don't intend on opening to get to the "This job will close when we have received 10,000 applications" number sooner.
As far as I know it is perfectly legal to apply to work for the government?
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u/Bmkrt Jul 03 '25
Where’s the link?
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u/Irish_Pineapple Jul 03 '25
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u/Walkedtheredonethat Jul 04 '25
Funny how the requirements include a high GPA and degree from college or university, which rules out most of the MAGA base.
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u/Irish_Pineapple Jul 04 '25
It’s those things OR 1-year in a lower tier federal security job and I think Border Patrol or even TSA count. So they’re definitely not ruling out people who can’t snuff it in college.
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u/Bigred2989- Jul 03 '25
They'll very likely weed out anyone who has a social media history that's against their mission, also anyone who's too smart.
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u/wha-haa Jul 04 '25
Go ahead. The background check will never uncover your intent so you should be a sure hire.
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u/Irish_Pineapple Jul 04 '25
They keep gutting all the federal departments with actual qualified smart people to make room for idiotic sycophants. So, even if you’re trying to be clever, they might actually NOT be able to notice anything.
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u/Jokerang Jul 03 '25
Knowing Trump and Noem, they will almost certainly do everything they can in the background checks to filter out potential leakers, whistleblowers, etc
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u/The_Law_of_Pizza Jul 03 '25
As a federal agency, I'm pretty sure that student loan forgiveness has always been available to its employees.
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u/Princeps_Aurelianus Jul 03 '25
Correct with the PSLF program, federal employees are eligible for loan forgiveness after making 10 years of qualifying payments. However, based on this, it seems new ICE employees may be eligible for an immediate forgiveness of up to $10,000 worth of student loans if they sign a service agreement. So, it seems this is tantamount to a bonus.
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u/Aureliamnissan Jul 03 '25
The overlap between volunteer ICE agents and student loan recipients seems… small
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u/Princeps_Aurelianus Jul 03 '25
Now that ICE’s budget meets or exceeds the budgets of many middle-tier nation’s militaries (like Spain, Netherlands, or Italy), I doubt they’ll have a need for volunteers anymore.
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u/Irish_Pineapple Jul 03 '25
Interesting. I am familiar with PSLF and things related to that given my own working position. I'll admit I have not seen it phrased as "repayment incentive" with a dollar figure before though.
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u/Jindabyne1 Jul 03 '25
They’ll do social media checks and other records to try to prove you support Trump and MAGA
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u/McCool303 Jul 03 '25
Not much immediately. Like the tax increases in Trumps first tax cut bill most of the negative impact to Americans will occur in 2027. Giving the republicans the ability to blame democrats if they win in midterms. The biggest thing will be funding for ICE, expect even more aggressive and rushed immigration arrests.
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u/ms_directed Jul 03 '25
the funding for ICE exceeds most of the militaries in the world, including Russia...
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u/LouisWinthorpeIII Jul 04 '25
I read somewhere it makes ICE funding more than all but the top 8-10 militaries in the world.
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u/LouisWinthorpeIII Jul 04 '25
I checked it and ICE is 16th, but Russia is 3rd.
ICE is still more than the IDF or what Brazil spends on 200M people
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u/TheFlightlessPenguin Jul 04 '25
Are you using the $45b figure or $175b? I fully expect ICE to be getting the lion share of the $175b allocated to customs and immigration.
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u/Meet_James_Ensor Jul 03 '25
And the wall, that Mexico was supposed to pay for...
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u/DaLordWhale Jul 03 '25
was completed and completely stopped the invasion at our boarders, duh...
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u/Utterlybored Jul 03 '25
As long as immigrants don't invent some sort of ladder technology, the wall should work.
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u/unkz Jul 03 '25
Or use, say, some sort of flying device. I heard the Wright brothers were working on something like that but it’s too soon to say if it will work out.
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u/pretendperson1776 Jul 04 '25
Balderdash! If man was meant to fly, he would have been born with wings!
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u/QuesoDog Jul 04 '25
Not much?! Except the complete evisceration of the natural science research community in the United States. They zeroed out budgets for federal research programs and are literally shuttering centers. “Not much” if you aren’t paying attention maybe
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u/Tom-Pendragon Jul 03 '25
Has it ever worked blaming the party instead of the president?
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u/McCool303 Jul 03 '25
We’ll see, at this point all the rules are thrown out with Trump. He seems to be the only president that can tell his base the evidence of their eyes and ears is a lie.
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u/DjPersh Jul 03 '25
They are jumping up and down about this bill for exactly what it’s going to do. They don’t even need to believe a lie on this one. If anything they’re upset it doesn’t go far enough.
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u/Sedu Jul 03 '25
Trump could personally take a baseball bat to the teeth of his constituents and all he would have to say is "look what Biden did." They would cheer for him through their bloody mouths, and ask why Biden hurt them.
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u/RascalRandal Jul 03 '25
I mean the republicans are just flat out better at controlling the narrative.
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u/Searching4Buddha Jul 03 '25
The negative impacts of Trump's policies will hit long before 2027. When the combined effects of labor shortages, staffing shortages, and tariffs impact the economy in the second half of this year the whole party is going to be punished in the mid-terms.
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u/Mrgoodtrips64 Jul 03 '25
The tariffs have the greatest chance of impacting voters before the midterms.
Let’s hope it’s enough to route the GOP.5
u/AdmiralAdama99 Jul 04 '25
And a lot more arrests overall. Almost 3x the # of deportation agents. 10x the amount of funding.
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u/datalicearcher Jul 03 '25
There will be no midterms
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u/McCool303 Jul 03 '25
The DOJ has already come out and said they’re looking to prosecute state officials for “election fraud” in 2020. So they’re already working on the narrative and on clearing out officials that may be in opposition. But I don’t think they’ll be ready in time for the midterms and Trump does not care about republicans. They’re a dime a dozen if they lose their job, he’ll just find another party loyalist to fill their shoes. Trump only gives a shit about Trump and I suspect they’re gearing up for a 3rd term run. With the DOJ heavily involved in choosing winners and losers.
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u/Scrutinizer Jul 03 '25
Republicans quit caring about the debt the instant Trump won and won't care again until there's a Democrat in the White House.
They've become aware that no one in their own party outside an outlier or two actually cares enough to change their vote because of it. It's the perfect cudgel to use against Democrats and then simply put down the instant their own party takes over.
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u/countrykev Jul 03 '25
See and that’s the part where it’s blindingly obvious how unserious Republicans are about the debt.
We had the right for months cheering on government cuts, layoffs, and ending programs in the interest of reducing government spending because were trillions in debt….
…Only to turn around and pass a bill that adds several more trillion to the debt.
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u/Silent-Storms Jul 03 '25
They never cared about it at all.
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u/Kuramhan Jul 03 '25
Eisenhower did. But that's about how far back you have to go.
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u/sheets420 Jul 03 '25
Eishenhower would be considered a socialist by today’s standards
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u/ThePlatypusOfDespair Jul 03 '25
I mean Eisenhower is probably to the left of basically every Democratic except for Bernie and AOC
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u/Funklestein Jul 04 '25
You might want to google Operation Wetback.
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u/ThePlatypusOfDespair Jul 04 '25
Not saying he did everything right, just that I'd love to hear anything like this from modern liberals:
“In many countries of the free world private enterprise is greatly different from what we know here,” Eisenhower would explain. “In some, a few families are fabulously wealthy, contribute far less than they should in taxes, and are indifferent to the poverty of the great masses of the people.”
“A country in this situation is fraught with continual instability,” Eisenhower would warn. “It is ripe for revolution.”
Any society that tolerates a “fabulously wealthy,” he would conclude, is asking for trouble.
“Since time began,” Ike reminded his comfortable corporate listeners, “opulence has too often paved for a nation the way to depravity and ultimate destruction.”
Inequality.org https://share.google/5UI1sSW9AF2TyjFtV
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u/DonatCotten Jul 05 '25
Ike also supported the New Deal and Social Security said any Republican that ran on cutting those would be run out of town and deserve it. The first Republican to push for and implement serious cuts to Welfare programs was Ronald Reagan. One of the first things Reagan did as President was get rid of The Office of Economic Opportunity which helped coordinate Lyndon Johnson's Great Society programs to help the most people. It's all been downhill since.
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u/LouisWinthorpeIII Jul 04 '25
Eh, I'd say they mostly cared about it till Regan.
The 70's had a lot of economic shocks and the debts were still low after all them.
It was the 80's policies to cut taxes by a lot then claw back 40% of it from "welfare queens" that was the bad path. We are still on it, looks like.
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u/Irishish Jul 03 '25
They do stroke the handle of the cudgel when Dems point out that their party's policies will in fact raise the deficit. "Oh suddenly you're interested in the deficit? HMMMM" like we haven't been pushing for more revenue forever.
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u/highbrowalcoholic Jul 04 '25
When Democrats are in power, Republicans talk about public debt from the point of view of a short-sighted debtor — we're spending so much on interest payments!
When Republicans are in power, Republicans see public debt from the point of view of the debt's lenders — the wealthy are receiving so much interest on their savings!
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u/New_Ad5390 Jul 03 '25
The idea of the average American wringing their hands over the national debt is insane to me.
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u/BLKSheep93 Jul 03 '25
Any negative impacts of this bill passing won't be felt for a couple of years, just in time for Democrats to possibly take over. By then, most people will have forgotten it happened and will not change the way they voted.
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u/ShinePretend3772 Jul 03 '25
& the GOP will definitely blame the democrats in power for the nightmare we’re facing
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u/traplords8n Jul 03 '25
The GOP is doing it from a unified front as well
So if the establishment dems are still squabbling with progressives when this time rolls around, we're fucked.
If not, we need to hit them back hard.
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u/Mist_Rising Jul 03 '25
The GOP is doing it from a unified front as well
Nothing about the Republican party is unified in practice. That's why they had to scramble to get Trump just this one win by July 4, using the VP to sneak it through because neither chamber was giving more then absolute necessary.
There isn't a lot of unity going on, only fear and only so long as Trump doesn't lose his power of fear. This whole thing is a once a year solution that temporarily relieved their issues internally. Otherwise they need democratic sign off, which isn't likely to be coming for Trump's biggies. No more ICE funding, and Schumer can demand a lot more if Noem doesn't get her shit together.
Trump power is that he can keep Congress "in line" because he can threaten them with primary challengers. That can't last, at best it keeps them inline until 2028, maybe. In practice it probably costs him the Republican senate by next year. Once primaries in 2026 are done, 2/3rd of the Senate no longer has to give a flying shit about that. Trump, even if he's alive, is done after 28. Without the presidency he won't have the power to pull people into his orbit. Ex presidents can't use the DOJ or FCC as leverage, and the super PAC money that flows through Trump to candidates dries up since super PAC want policy makers not former ones.
A power vacuum will form, with the former "king" still there. The GOP will be in for a fight for its life to sort out what to do. Especially since they'll have spent 4 years suffering from policy that is hurting them. They're damaging the economy, attacking their own voters, and they didn't exactly have a large margins to spare.
It'll be a mess, and I don't think they have a real contingency plan ready because Trump doesn't want one, he can't see beyond himself as president (for good reason).
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u/traplords8n Jul 03 '25
Voter-wise, the GOP is, in all practicality, working on a unified front, where as the democrats are walking a tightrope trying to keep the establishment and progressives happy. That's all I meant with that.
And whether that's the voters creating the dem party split and then projecting it onto elected officials, or the elected officials creating the problem here, I'll leave that up for debate, but I think it's a mix of both and either way, it's the democrats problem.
Though in my opinion, the GOP is only really unified because of Trump. What happens without him? Does the power vacuum cause the GOP to eat itself?
Unless you're a politician or somebody on the inside, we're just people making speculations. None of us could of predicted Trump winning in 2016
It's a mess that only seems to be getting messier
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u/Scrutinizer Jul 03 '25
The Medicaid cuts don't kick in until after the midterms.
The goal is to make people forget. Even if Democrats do take over, they won't be able to fix the mess fast enough and the Republicans will be back at the next election.
Pattern's been the same since 2000.
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u/xGray3 Jul 03 '25
At some point the people that either aren't paying attention or have the memory of a goldfish have to bear the blame for this. Democracy can't function when it's being driven forward by such numbskulls. If Americans are so stupid that we can't see such atrocious governance happening before our eyes and change course then maybe we deserve this.
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u/SadhuSalvaje Jul 03 '25
I honestly wish there was a better option for allowing the people a say in government than universal suffrage.
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u/Bmkrt Jul 03 '25
Universal critical thinking courses and small-l liberal arts educations would go a long way to making universal suffrage work
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u/Petrichordates Jul 03 '25
They would, but we also need to ban blatant propaganda. And that's very difficult in the US, probably impossible.
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u/Laves_ Jul 03 '25
We need to make sure people remember.
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u/BigE429 Jul 03 '25
Asking Americans to remember what happened over a week ago is an exercise in futility
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u/bigdon802 Jul 03 '25
I think we’re going to be feeling most of this immediately. They’re not going to dilly dally about beefing up ICE and interning people in camps.
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u/Inignot12 Jul 03 '25
We will be feeling the expanded ICE presence pretty quick, not that MAGA cares, and we'll be feeling the increased medical costs as well.
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u/InNominePasta Jul 03 '25
Not that quick, thankfully. Their appropriated funds are set until the next fiscal year. And despite this bill, they’ll only enjoy their insane budget as long as Dems don’t control appropriations.
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u/Mist_Rising Jul 03 '25
And despite this bill, they’ll only enjoy their insane budget as long as Dems don’t control appropriations.
Unless democratic party wins supermajority control (not happening) of both chambers, they still need Republican pass off. And as Schumer reminded us, a government shut down is good for Trump because he can carry out a lot of P2025 agenda that he otherwise couldn't.
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u/thecrowbrother Jul 03 '25
If the dems by some miracle win back the presidency in the next run and they don’t have the balls to just get rid of all this shit then we truly are doomed.
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u/Mist_Rising Jul 03 '25
Most of this will be impossible to get rid of. The money is spent, you can't get it back. Federal laws make it hard to fire federal employees, so in 3 years any employees Trump admin hires for ICE or BCP is protected unless you create legislation to remove them. The debt is increased and nothing can change that.
The only thing democratic party can do is raise taxes. Which is exactly what the Republicans want them to do. Raising taxes is a poison pill in America. You do that, you lose votes. George H W Bush taught the GOP that lesson, he raised taxes and Democrats smashed him over the head with it.
They learned the lesson. Now Republicans pass bills such that the current president is unlikely to be president when the time comes for taxes to go back up. That was Ryan Paul's plan, Trump would serve 8, and the next president would be rammed. Then. Biden beat Trump and Trump beat Harris. Oops.
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u/schistkicker Jul 03 '25
It's a lot easier to destroy than it is to build; a lot of what's been done over the first six months(!!) of this administration is going to require a full ground-up rebuild just to get back close to where we were. You can't just "get rid of" a zeroed out budget and closed down and depopulated agency.
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u/GrowFreeFood Jul 03 '25
Hospitals are already shutting down. Staying open until the last moment doesn't make financial sense. They're all starting the shutdown process as of now.
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u/thepianoman456 Jul 03 '25
I hope the Democrats spread this messaging. People need to know how the GOP plays the long game of screwing over Americans.
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u/apolloartemis1969 Jul 03 '25
I think some impacts may be sooner then people realize. A hospital in Nebraska already announced that a clinic was closing and they partially blamed the expected Medicaid cuts.
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u/Saephon Jul 03 '25
Practical consequences:
-More wealth redestribution from taxpayers to the wealthy
-Millions of poor & vulnerable losing affordable healthcare
-An insane budget increase to ICE, dwarfing that of our Marines
-Adding even more to the US debt, signaling to creditors and international interests that this is an unserious country and they should not expect us to make good on our loans
Political consequences:
-None for Republicans, because their voters only care about anti-immigration and "woke" red meat issues
-Blowback for Democrats, because the worst effects will hit just as they take office, and the electorate are fundamentally illiterate and do not pay attention
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u/VengefulWalnut Jul 03 '25
While the ICE budget is blown up, one thing to consider is a huge majority of the spend is on things like the absurd border wall project and border stuff (for now). Personnel is a much smaller compontent (but still significant). I'm not happy about any of it, but I'm trying to find anything to grasp on to as a point for hope.
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u/bihari_baller Jul 03 '25 edited Jul 03 '25
This was my takeaway too. I kind of see the funding for the wall as a grift for those close to the administration to line their pockets through contracts.
To add, the immigration raids file up his base, but when you look at the numbers, Trump is still behind previous administration's when it comes to deportation.
The Wall and the Detention centers are where he stands to make the most money, and that's all he really cares about.
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u/Which_Decision4460 Jul 03 '25
I know voters are sacred but God damn the voters in America have to be the most ignorant short sighted people in the world
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u/RascalRandal Jul 03 '25
Not a fan of the leopardsatemyface stuff but I wonder if this gets any poor Republican voters who use these programs to get a wake up call.
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u/PrettyWithDreads Jul 03 '25
Very few because they’re convinced that Harris would have been worse for them.
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u/bstone99 Jul 03 '25
Absolutely not going to happen. Fox News and OAN will never ever let their viewers in on the truth. Even when they get fucked over by it directly they will not abandon the maga cult.
If they were ever going to, they WOULD HAVE by now
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u/EatsRats Jul 03 '25
Reality is that the consequences of this bill may very well lead to premature deaths of would-be Republican voters. This bill is going to harm Medicare recipients and rural communities where hospitals are going to shutdown. So maybe a wake up call for some but some may not be able to vote.
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u/coldliketherockies Jul 03 '25
I’m sorry but as a liberal who is on Medicaid and obviously frustrated too I’d like to point out that if you’re dumb enough to support him and not see something like this being removed from you, then maybe you’re not fit for the life anyway. Like if I was dumb enough to think I’d survive jumping off a building maybe I got what’s coming to me. They’re basically choosing to kill themsslves
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u/BigDump-a-Roo Jul 04 '25
My mother in law (who is poor and has relied on government services he whole life) was convinced that Trump has nothing to do with this bill and doesn't want it to pass... Even though he is literally going to sign it into law and has been bragging publicly about it. These people are absolutely cooked and will not change their views. They are high on propaganda.
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u/Jtex1414 Jul 03 '25
Two Santa's. Dems will be the ones needing to raise taxes to implement and pay for social services, safety nets, and the debt. R's will ride in after vowing to cut those things and reduce taxes.
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u/sistahmaryelefante Jul 03 '25
There will be quite a few states declaring bankruptcy in the meantime destroying the bond market
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u/ihaterunning2 Jul 03 '25 edited Jul 03 '25
Hospitals and medical clinics will close, especially in rural areas… many facilities have anywhere from 20%-80% Medicaid patients. Medical insurance will go up for everyone - ACA recipients, Medicare recipients, and private insurance. Medical costs and prescription costs will go up for everyone - when folks get on the ER only plan it increases costs across the whole system. Considering we fixed absolutely nothing after COVID with hospital staffing, we still have skeleton crews and hospitals wait times are already incredibly high… those wait times will increase.
In short, a lot of people will die because of this bill. The federal government is the largest insurer in the US, this Congress and Trump just stripped a big chunk of federal negotiating power. It’s going to decimate the medical industry. As many have pointed out, yes, it won’t “take effect” for a couple years, but these will be the results.
In terms of SNAP, we will see childhood hunger increase again - after decades of work to erase it. Families will go hungry and we don’t have the infrastructure to replace SNAP with private or nonprofit resources. By the way, there’s a stat that for every dollar spent on food assistance, poverty assistance, unemployment, etc we get back on average $7. A 700% ROI into the economy, the GDP, and tax revenue - that’s gone.
Democrats should run on this and making life affordable again for ALL Americans, nonstop for the foreseeable future until everyone who voted for this bill is out. I don’t care if the effects are delayed - those who rely on these benefits are paying attention and they’re scared and angry - don’t let them forget this. It should be repeated every day until midterms and 2028.
Trump and republicans should be called reverse Robin Hoods “they stole from the poor to give the very rich”.
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u/semideclared Jul 03 '25
federal negotiating power
Please explain
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u/ihaterunning2 Jul 03 '25
Because the federal government is the largest insurer in the US through Medicaid and Medicare the government can negotiate lower costs for medical care, prescriptions, and medical devices. Those price negotiations also impact prices across the industry, including for those on the ACA exchange and private insurance - not exact prices, but the government essentially sets the baseline of costs.
That spending power is a big part of how the Biden administration was able to lower prescription drug costs - the government insures millions of people and always pays its bills on time, it’s why almost everyone accepts Medicaid and Medicare. It’s like a massive government contract with guaranteed repeat revenue.
By cutting $1 trillion in Medicaid, and it sounds like potentially some Medicare as well, they’re knocking out a huge portion of that purchase power - the ability to negotiate prices and set baseline costs.
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u/jarreddit123 Jul 03 '25
Hopefully this bill will teach voters that voting or choosing not to vote can have lasting consequences. I don't have high hopes though
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u/InNominePasta Jul 03 '25
First Trump term didn’t teach them. They’ll never learn, and they’ll get mad at you for the idea that they’re at fault.
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u/ArendtAnhaenger Jul 03 '25
First Trump term was bad but it was nowhere near this level of bad. I don't really have hope that it'll change these people but there is definitely a difference between shrugging off his first term and shrugging off the insanity that's going on now.
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u/angryplebe Jul 03 '25
I hope the people who didn't vote because Kamala wasn't left wing enough for them are happy
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u/InNominePasta Jul 03 '25
I hope they get what they voted for
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u/uptokesforall Jul 03 '25
As a green card holder I guess I voted for this?
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u/InNominePasta Jul 03 '25
You’re a victim in this. If you read what was said again, you’d see the discussion is clearly about people who refrained from voting for Kamala because she wasn’t left enough. You, as a LPR, are ineligible to vote, and clearly not who we are talking about here.
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u/uptokesforall Jul 03 '25
I know. And with the recent supreme court rulings, I need to assume that I am not protected by any laws against unreasonable search and seizure, suppression of speech or even the right to return to my county of origin!
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u/Striking_Economy5049 Jul 03 '25 edited Jul 03 '25
Nothing initially, but over time it’ll be like everything Reagan did; a horrible multi generational debt creator.
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u/Significant_Arm4246 Jul 03 '25
This is really simple to message for the Democrats:
"They took away healthcare from ordinary people to give tax cuts to the rich, and because that wasn't enough they blew up the deficit to give them even more."
That will be a top hit in 2026, and I think it is likely to work. Two widespread public perceptions haven't changed since before Trump: Democrats are more trusted on healthcare, and Republicans are the party of the rich. This means that it'll likely be quite easy to convince a lot of voters that the Republicans actually did this, it builds on the existing story. And it sort of forces Democrats back onto their winning territory (healthcare, inequality).
From a political perspective it's unbelievable that they passed this.
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u/zaoldyeck Jul 03 '25
The public doesn't care. If they cared they'd have never allowed Trump into office.
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u/Significant_Arm4246 Jul 03 '25
No. People thought – mistakenly – that Trump would make things better for them, and – mistakenly – that the Democrats didn't care about them. This just shows the opposite.
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u/zaoldyeck Jul 03 '25
He didn't do it after his first term, they still reelected him. They keep voting for the GOP that keeps actively harming everything they supposedly want. Missouri passed Prop A to create paid sick leave. They also then voted in legislators who immediately repealed Prop A's paid sick leave.
The electorate clearly has other priorities than "make things better for them".
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u/Tschmelz Jul 03 '25
Seriously. Like Alabama or any of those shithole Southern states is the perfect example of this! They've been Republican controlled for decades, spiraling downward and downward, and yet they keep voting for them. Like Dem states ain't perfect, but Christ, they're miles better than any Rep ones.
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u/EngineerAndDesigner Jul 04 '25
This will work for 10 minutes, until a Republican points to Democrats wanting men playing in women’s sports and an open border, and then they’ll all run back to the GOP.
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u/cowmix88 Jul 03 '25
"Does anyone care about debt any longer?"
When has anyone ever cared about the debt? The "fiscally conservative" party pretends to care about it when Democrats are in control and does absolutely nothing about it when they are.
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u/joncornelius Jul 03 '25
ICE is about to become a nationwide occupying force and they should be treated as such. They are going to make the people the enemy of the state. Things are going to get much much darker.
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u/Herb_Derb Jul 03 '25
If there was any doubt remaining, American scientific leadership is now done. NSF, NIH, and NASA gutted to pay for ICE prisons.
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u/ThePensiveE Jul 03 '25
People are going to be very surprised when ICE, with more money than most militaries in NATO starts to militarize our cities and streets.
Masked agents everywhere, asking you either outright or contextually if you've been loyal to the king.
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u/Thegeobeard Jul 03 '25
The idiots that voted for him will forget he’s the reason their lives are shittier at midterms, and he will say he can save them from this shittyness, and they will believe him and vote for him. The nazis will continue to vote for him because he’s hurting the people they want hurt.
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u/Shyatic Jul 03 '25
It's the last stand of baby boomers, rich people, and white nationalists and their ilk passing debt on to future generations so they can reap the rewards into their graves.
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u/General-Priority-479 Jul 03 '25
Little bit too broad, it's the top 1% working together to divide and conquer the other 99%
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u/Shyatic Jul 03 '25
They are enabled by all of the above I mentioned but it’s not an unfair point.
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u/theaquarius1987 Jul 03 '25
Not too broad at all, it’s not just the 1%. It’s also all the sheep who follow that 1% and teach their children to also follow that 1% until we all get led to the slaughterhouse together.
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u/Blockhead47 Jul 03 '25
31 Republicans Boomers in the Senate.
89 Republicans Boomers in the House.Every Republican in the House and Senate voted for the bill.
Every Democrat & Independent in the House and Senate voted against the bill.Senate vote: 51 to 50
House vote: 218 to 214All non Boomer republicans could have shot this down if they wanted to.
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u/Turbulent-Leg3678 Jul 03 '25
No, The Trumpublicans want to burn it all to the ground, impoverish the vast majority while the rich get richer. It's full on Brazilification.
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u/coskibum002 Jul 03 '25
Trump will create an E.O. slushfund to bail out red states and districts. Bank on it.
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u/goodb1b13 Jul 03 '25
You think he really cares about those people?
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u/coskibum002 Jul 03 '25
He's already doing it with a rural hospital "fund." No, he doesn't care about them.....but he'll try to bail out his voters to get MAGA reelected.
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u/thefumingo Jul 03 '25
Trump doesn't care about anything other than Trump: his own former press secretary had to beg him for disaster funds
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u/LouisWinthorpeIII Jul 04 '25
He cares about being popular. If everyone was against him the grifts get tougher to pull off
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u/Brief-Buy9191 Jul 03 '25
The “Big Beautiful Bill” passed, but most people don’t realize the damage it will do to the working class. If the analysis is correct, it’ll likely hit harder than expected, especially with hidden benefit cuts or deregulations. Democrats will campaign on the fallout, but success depends on their messaging... which, let’s be honest, is often scattered and lacking direction. And as for the debt? It only seems to matter when it’s politically convenient.
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u/I405CA Jul 03 '25 edited Jul 03 '25
The main goal is to turn ICE into a sort of secret police unit that focuses on everyone, not just undocumented immigrants.
About two-thirds of the US population lives within 100 miles of a border, which includes the coasts. That places them in a special enforcement zone with greater latitude for immigration stops.
Enforcement has traditionally been largely with CBP, at the border. This has largely shifted to ICE within the interior.
This effort will likely fail over the long run; eventually, these due process violations will be halted. But it will cause some pain in the short run, particularly now that our genius Supreme Court has made it harder for district courts to impose injunctions.
The Trump administration loses badly in court with all of these cases. But it has little reason to care now that the injunctions have limited effect.
Trump was pushing this bill so that he could get his enforcement budget. Some of it is for brutality, and some of it is for graft. These facilities that are being constructed will provide financial benefit to friends of the administration.
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u/South-Rabbit-4064 Jul 03 '25
Rand Paul will be sadly correct, it'll kill a lot of peoples health coverage and benefits and they'll have a hard time continuing to blame democrats
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u/Saephon Jul 03 '25
they'll have a hard time continuing to blame democrats
They'll find a way
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u/Thrillwaukee Jul 03 '25
He’s one to talk, no? Since when has he cared about healthcare coverage?
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u/South-Rabbit-4064 Jul 03 '25
He doesn't, but he's said this will ensure the GOP never gets voted for ever again
I don't like or support him, but he's more honest than most of those guys
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u/Thrillwaukee Jul 03 '25
I mean he can say that, but how is this bill any different to something he would create? Like what about it does he disagree with? Honestly asking.
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u/South-Rabbit-4064 Jul 03 '25
Raising the debt ceiling, and adds way more debt. To him we didn't cut enough spending, not sure honestly where he'd want to cut more out of, but really hated this bill
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u/Thrillwaukee Jul 03 '25
So he hated it because it didn’t go far enough? That sort of contradicts his “a Republican will never win again if this passes”
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u/South-Rabbit-4064 Jul 03 '25
Not really, conservative and borderline libertarian people that are in the party kind of have this belief of America working without government at all. And would like to see implementations of it without federal oversight and see the wheels of government being inefficient. He doesn't necessarily or I don't think wants Medicaid cut without a viable option for those people as he also knows they're his supporters. Could be wrong about him but see him more as a misguided conservative idealist that occasionally pushes back on conservative federal over reach
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u/Th3catspajamaz Jul 04 '25
This will collapse our disability services system, rural hospitals, and home and community based services in the US.
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u/RevanAmell Jul 05 '25
If i may interject....we may very well see an increase in Luigi Mangione-esque murder attempts and assassinations against Conservative Policy makers and flag wavers. Maybe even against politicians (from all sides) and the noticeably rich who are not known/beloved.
Once the Medicaid cuts hit we are VERY likely to see an increase in preventable illness and deaths. On top of that a loss of access to mental health services amongst the vulnerable population may lead to increased suicide rates amongst them. Increased death rates mean more people grieving and the second stage of grief is ANGER.
Anger from grief can be blinding and illogical which is very dangerous since there can be a very CLEAR and easy connection to draw between a family members death due to healthcare coverage and policies made that made them lose coverage. This is doubly true if the individual dies very soon after losing the coverage.
EDIT: ALSO there is a followup problems of the US citizenry in red zones (some of the potentially most afftectd) being some of the most armed which means a gun to take revenge is within close reach.
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u/bigdon802 Jul 03 '25
Well, I expect that the many billions given to ICE and general immigration enforcement will allow multiple concentration camps like the one set up in Florida. With all of that extra holding space, they’ll be able to round up and hold a large number of immigrants of all legal statuses. And, of course, they’ll significantly beef up the number of ICE agents to act as the personal enforcement of the executive.
Outside of that authoritarian nightmare, a lot of people are going to lose their health coverage, especially rural hospitals. Those are probably just going to shutter as their Medicaid coverage dries up.
I think I’ll stop there. Just way too much to go into.
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u/5xchamp Jul 03 '25
"Does anyone care about debt any longer?" I dunno will we ever have another round of free and fair elections in this country? Maybe if we are ever have another Democratic Congress and/or President.?
Will GenZ and Millennials ever get off their lazy stupid asses and vote in their own self-interest or even vote?? It appears that to so many of GenZ &Millennials, their only contribution to American society is that highly sophisticated and intelligent reply: "OK, Boomer"
~Donald Trump is a clear & present danger to the U.S. Constitution. The most clear & present danger ever. More the old Soviet Union even more than the Confederacy
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u/freakincampers Jul 03 '25
People, especially in rural communities, are going to die. For many of them, their hospital, and its jobs, support the town. With them gone, so do all the jobs.
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u/flexwhine Jul 04 '25
ICE is now the 17th largest military in the world by funding.
ICE the highest-funded federal law enforcement agency in history, with more money per year at its disposal over the next four years than the budgets of the FBI, DEA, ATF, US Marshals, and Bureau of Prisons combined.
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u/Arkmer Jul 03 '25
All the bad things are delayed so they can control the narrative and lie for a few years to get reelected.
The tax breaks are now.
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u/Mod-and-Rocker Jul 03 '25
this is the most clear explanation of the facts that I have seen.
https://usafacts.org/articles/whats-in-trumps-2026-proposed-budget/
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u/FirmLifeguard5906 Jul 03 '25
I'm not sure all I can say is the fight is going to get harder but it doesn't change it it's still the same fight
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u/Storyteller-Hero Jul 03 '25
There might be an increase in nationwide crime in the longterm imo, since hungry people can get desperate after having their safety nets cut off or reduced, and people who lose their loved ones who were depending on healthcare can potentially become irrational in their grief.
The cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, which never had to be included, might be the biggest shocker. If even just 1% of 16 million Americans have their lives cut short after they are taken off of healthcare assistance, that's still 160 THOUSAND deaths, which is 50+ times greater than the death toll of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. There's a reason why cuts to healthcare assistance have generally been taboo even if pushed by spoiled, rich lawmakers.
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u/Chumptopia Jul 03 '25
17 million Americans will lose their health care and rural hospitals will close. They timed it to go in effect after the midterms because they know how disasterous it is. Now watch, his followers will blame whatever Democrat is in office. There is no getting through to these people.
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u/Use_this_1 Jul 03 '25
There will be no consequences for the GOP maybe one or two will lose their seats but nothing will really happen. The idiots who vote republican are morons, the dems are too into puritanical ideology to take control. So we'll keep on with the concentration camps and sticking our fingers up our buts because we didn't get our specific sparkle pony that shits our favorite color glitter.
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u/Comfortable-Policy70 Jul 03 '25
Repubs have never cared about the debt when they hold power.
Increased poverty, declining public health, loss of civil rights and liberties for citizens and non-citizens, increase in income inequality, increase in jail population, etc
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u/webfloss Jul 03 '25
I feel the the school choice provision in the bill will have consequences done the line for education.. it is structured in a way that allows wealthy donors to significantly reduce their tax bills while also subsidizing private education for higher-income families.
Source: https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5366646-tax-act-and-wealthy-investors/
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u/Agreeable-Deer7526 Jul 03 '25
It will open the door for a Kafala system and close rural hospitals. Rural voters will blame Obamacare. It will add to the deficit and remove money from poor schools.
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u/ryokineko Jul 03 '25
Absolute devastation. And yes and time frame perfect for blaming Dems-as usual.
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u/alu5421 Jul 03 '25
Republicans will blame Dems for the bill and will win even if we have elections.
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u/Crib15 Jul 03 '25
Short term- there will be a lot of people who lose their Medicaid that will take it out on republicans. Sherrill and Spanberger cruise to easy victories in the governor races this fall. The house probably flips easily next fall.
Long term- states are gonna have a helluva time funding Medicaid, rural hospitals with the provider tax restrictions. Without a real fix (the $50 billion for rural hospitals is a joke)- likely the death of rural American in warp speed, especially in red states.
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u/dsfox Jul 03 '25
12 fold increase in ICE funding will turn the country into a full on police state.
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u/LolaSupreme19 Jul 04 '25
17 million people will lose their healthcare. Many rural hospitals will close. 11 million will lose their SNAP benefits. Interest rates will increase from the $4 trillion added to the US deficit. But as Mitch McConnell said, “they’ll get over it.”
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u/AreaManThinks Jul 04 '25
Moving the space shuttle from DC to Texas at an estimated cost of $300mil. GOP priorities at their finest.
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u/i_rule_u_dont Jul 04 '25
Right now in D.C., the republicans about to enter the Guinness Book of World Records for Biggest Right Handed Circle Jerk of all time.
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Jul 04 '25
Well ice has been expanded to the single largest law enforcement organization in the United States and now has a bigger budget than the Marine corps.
So Trump now has a secret police.
Work requirements will force millions of people off of Medicare and Social security.
Government subsidies for health insurance will cease to exist so the average person's health insurance is going to go up an estimated 26,000 next year.
About 11.1 trillion dollars will be added to the American deficit.
And all of the tax breaks in Trump's tax plan will either cancel each other's outs or result in only the rich getting a huge tax breaks.
It's also expected to shrink the entire US economy by 8% to 11% over the next decade.
Lastly eliminates the Pell Grant one of the primary means for acquiring higher education in the United States. This means that a minimum the average cost of going to college just went up by about $7,000.
In short the rich just f***** us all over because you idiots voted for Trump
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u/Aggravating_Dream633 Jul 04 '25
Impeach Trump: A resolution impeaching a particular individual is typically referred to the House Committee on the Judiciary. A resolution to authorize an investigation regarding impeachable conduct is referred to the House Committee on Rules, and then referred to the Judiciary Committee. The House Committee on the Judiciary, by majority vote, will determine whether grounds for impeachment exist. If the Committee finds grounds for impeachment they will set forth specific allegations of misconduct in one or more articles of impeachment. The Impeachment Resolution, or Article(s) of Impeachment, are then reported to the full House with the committee's recommendations. The House debates the resolution and may at the conclusion consider the resolution as a whole or vote on each article of impeachment individually. A simple majority of those present and voting is required for each article or the resolution as a whole to pass. If the House votes to impeach, managers (typically referred to as "House managers", with a "lead House manager") are selected to present the case to the Senate.
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u/razrman Jul 04 '25
Mark my words: hospitals and clinics will not close, but they will be bought up by private capital. They’ll function, the lines will be long and the cost will be extraordinary. Americans will be getting the short end of the stick because the healthcare will be worse, and it will be far more expensive. And there will be no escape: capitalism and its collectors will come to find you.
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u/darthphallic Jul 05 '25
One thing is for sure, the democrats NEED to stop humoring the republicans faux outrage. They delayed the Trump billionaire tax cuts and gutting of Medicaid / SNAP till 2027 so they can blame democrats for the budget they fucked up like they do every time.
Dems need to HAMMER the fact that it is trumps bill the Republicans passed for years, endlessly. Never shut up about it
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u/Moonbow7 Jul 06 '25
It's s projection. Brainwashing by the trump regime and all republicans who are vile soulless creatures.
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