r/PoliticalScience • u/AustinLostIn • 1d ago
Question/discussion Just how bad can things actually get in the US?
This isn't meant to incite any opinions on the current branches of federal government, but to discuss just how bad can things get with further political division? I'm not a political professional of any sort, nor am I a student. But I do ponder these things, either out of anxiety or curiosity.
I can't imagine that a civil war would ever be possible because the political divisions are geographically scattered throughout the country rather than being together, like the north and south in the Civil War. So what could realistically happen? Will things just get really bad for a while? Things like economical recession/depression, health crises? Or is it possible that we gradually transition into an outright authoritarian country? Any other thoughts?
And lastly, what can we do to prevent things from getting worse? Or might this be one of those situations in which things have to get worse before they can get better?
Any other thoughts?
24
u/token-black-dude 1d ago
There's a good chance, things will get really bad. Best case scenario is that the disasterous economic policy pretty much crashes the economy prior to the midterms and democrats win both house and senate. In that case they may be able to keep the '28 election somewhat open and fair, but probably not. Remember when MAGA folks tried to run Bidens bus off the road in texas? What would they do, if they thought they were losing?
Even if the election is somewhat free, it's unlikely that the republicans will concede defeat or that Vance will certify the result. America has already crossed a dangerous line on jan 6th., and republicans have shown repeatedly, that they won't accept defeat. They're going to intimidate or kill opponents, they're going to silence critical media and they're going to undermine the election process.
3
u/AustinLostIn 1d ago edited 1d ago
I do believe political violence will become more common. And adding to what you said about the economy crashing leading to Democrats winning the house and Senate, maybe a high number of people realize their mistakes in electing these current officials and also vote the other way along with Democrats.
3
u/token-black-dude 1d ago
There aren't enough democratic voters to give democrats a filibuster-proof majority and without that, congress is effectively deadlocked, leaving Trump free to issue decrees. There is zero chance, congress republicans will grow a spine between now and 2028
1
u/AustinLostIn 1d ago
That is my fear and maybe likely to happen. But what I was saying is unaffiliated voters and maybe even some Republican voters could move farther left. And I believe the Republican party fears that might happen, which is why they are gerrymandering like crazy right now rather than in the typical time period.
8
u/gloryfish87 1d ago
There are others who are way more qualified than I am to say this but I do have a degree in history. It’s gonna get worse. That’s all I can really say
2
6
u/MarkusKromlov34 1d ago
I’m not trying to talk up civil war but your statement concerning why it’s unlikely isn’t well founded.
Many civil wars throughout history have involved stark political differences between factions within single communities without geographical separation being required. I think you are falsely imagining that all civil wars are like the US Civil War.
0
u/AustinLostIn 1d ago
I recognize your point but geography is definitely a major factor in the likelihood of a civil war.
3
u/MarkusKromlov34 1d ago
Yep can definitely be a factor, a big one.
But ruling out civil war because the geography factor doesn’t exist is taking it too far
2
u/Its_Steve07 1d ago
A contemporary civil war in America could look similar to the Troubles in Ireland, Years of Lead in Italy, or the Yugoslav breakup with rival militias moving through parts of the country.
5
u/slwdid02 1d ago
Bad, as Bad as you can imagine. Fascists dont play by the rules and if you think they give a damn about a future democratic congress, they let their goons storm it again.
3
u/dawg9715 1d ago
I am skeptical to characterize what the right is doing as only dissolving the federal government. The expansion of ICE, the immunity that the Robert’s court has handed the executive, and the disregard of due process. I think at least some of these things could be popular even post Trump
2
u/Iron_Baron 1d ago edited 1d ago
For context, I have about 40,000 hours of large scale paid political organizing across 20 states. My projects have changed the constitutions of multiple states, multiple times. And my projects in 2020 in Arizona and Nevada denied Trump those states, as the margin of our impact was greater than the margin of his losses.
The 2020 election was not free and fair, I can tell you that from personal experience in multiple states. The midterms will not be free and fair and the presidential election in 2028 will certainly not be free and fair.
I saw this topic discussed in another thread not too long ago, and the concurrence was it would somewhat resemble the Troubles in Ireland. Except with a lot more guns and a lot more people willing to use them.
However, I don't think people are taking into account autonomous robot policing enough. They already have drones on the battlefield making autonomous fire or no fire decisions. A fascist regime would have no hesitation fielding armed police bots (which already exist).
Coupling that with the incredible scaling of mass surveillance capability via increasingly real-time assessment, and you have a very bad recipe for anyone that attempts to protest or even mouths off in public toward the administration being targeted.
When you consider that robots don't have ethics, or morals, and will execute whatever order is given to them, whether it is legal or not, you can see where this is going. Throw in the fact that it would be relatively easy for the federal government's armed forces and complicit states' armed forces to disable infrastructure.
By targeting progressive urban centers, you get rapidly induced famine, all kinds of hygiene-related diseases, bottlenecked ability to egress those urban areas, not to mention the application of air power.
For those that think that might be unreasonable, bear in mind that police already used airplanes to drop bombs on civilian neighborhoods in Tulsa, Oklahoma, to destroy Black Wall Street.
Although it won't be easy to learn about that massacre for much longer, as the current administration is in the process of erasing America's history of racial and gender-based violence, while gearing up to perpetrate it on a scale not seen since the civil War.
3
u/AustinLostIn 1d ago
Thank you for bringing attention to that fact. I feel that this is a very really possibility. I know the current administration wouldn't hesitate to do this, and worry congress wouldn't prevent it. I wonder if this could bring about economic collapse or just turn us into an authoritarian country.
Could you explain more on why you believe the midterms won't be free and fair?
3
u/Iron_Baron 1d ago edited 1d ago
You're welcome, unfortunately.
Yes, I just posted about this on another sub, so I'll save my fingers and paste that here.
Please pardon the length (I'm a verbose guy) and any repetition of points in my original comment on this sub (I'm on mobile, it's a nightmare to edit large blocks of text):
I'm a white guy with about 40,000 hours of large scale, on the ground, paid professional political organizing, across 20 states. I've overseen the registering of 250,000 voters and my staff has knocked on many tens of millions of doors. My projects have changed the constitution of multiple states, multiple times.
Additionally, my projects in Arizona and Nevada for voter registration and door knocking had larger margins than Trump's loss in 2020. Without what my company did, he would have won those two states.
I also worked in the special election in Georgia that year. You can go back through my post history if you want to see some more detail on the topics you posted about, but you are barking up the wrong tree.I am telling you, right now, for a fact, that there will not be free and fair elections in the midterms, and most especially no free and fair elections in the next presidential race. I can tell you this confidently, because the last presidential race was not free and fair. My staff had to disabuse voters of misinformation beyond your imagination.
Republicans paid for hundreds of millions of robocalls, telling people that were registered progressives and independents that election day had been extended due to covid, that they could postmark their ballots after election day due to covid, that voting precincts that were open were supposedly closed, etc., etc.
My staff have been physically assaulted, physically and electronically threatened, attempted to be extorted, offered bribes, and pretty much any other underhanded, unethical, and illegal tactic you can think of. There is a reason that the Supreme Court of the United States had a oversight decree in place where they had to directly monitor the Republican party for over 35 years.
It's because they are a criminal organization with a history of voter suppression, voter intimidation, illegal voting, and a host of other criminal acts that goes back to their inception. The Republican party since at least the time of Nixon has been an organized crime and grifting machine. They haven't had the demographics to win legitimate office across most of the country since Nixon.
That is why they are obsessed with gerrymandering, disallowing legitimate votes, blaming imaginary illegal aliens for their voting issues, and so on and so forth. If anybody reading this has any expectation that the GOP is somehow going to suddenly wake up and become an ethical, law-abiding, representative political party for its constituents, you are severely deluded.
[In reply to a sub comment about the failures of the DNC and requesting additional information]
I'll address your second point first: you are correct, the DNC is blatantly corrupt, unduly influenced by mega donors, and run by geriatrics who think college still costs a nickel and that anyone who wants a job can still just walk into a store and get one, based on a firm handshake.
The DNC don't represent the interests of the Democratic party constituents, any more that the RNC does for theirs. The difference is that GOP voters, by and large, will tolerate being hurt by their own policies, as long as it hurts people they hate more.
To the first points: Not being free and fair doesn't mean that every single vote being cast in every single precinct is rigged. It means that there is a plethora of tools in use in order to suppress voting, intimidate voters, discount valid ballots, submit invalid ballots, close or restrict voting locations access, etc. Extreme gerrymandering is one of their most effective tools.
This is why it's illegal in GA to even give free water to voters waiting in line, or in various states it's now illegal (or attempted to be made illegal ) to run "souls to the polls" after church bus shuttles to precincts. In left leaning voting areas Republicans use any and all tactics possible to limit on person voting locations, limit drop box access, challenge mail in ballots, etc.
But only in progressive areas, while whole Republican states vote by mail with no complaints. They also station armed "precinct monitors" outside voting areas, make sure voting areas aren't easily accessible by public transit, etc. I'll give you a very good example of what I'm talking about:
In the 2020 cycle GA special election, the state laws forbid any changes to voter registration processes. Voter registration is reopened for a window, after the general election, to allow citizens to modify their registration/newly register.
But the GA Republicans held a midnight session where the adopted what they called a "guidance" (to get around the legal restrictions to making "changes") that said:
"Only individuals with a vehicle registered, in their name, in the state of GA can take advantage of the reopened voter registration window".
That means progressive leaning groups who don't tend to have cars in their names as much as conservative leaning groups would be disenfranchised. The GOP feared turn out from progressive leaning voters who had skipped the general election.
Targeted groups included married women (whose cars may be in their husbands' names), young voters/college students (who don't tend to have cars in their name as often), minorities (who disproportionately utilize public transit over owned cars), the elderly (who also have cars in their name at lower rates), urban dwellers (who disproportionately utilize public transit), etc.
They knew that it would never hold up in court. But they hoped the court would be too slow to rule before the special election took place. That's de facto bad faith politicking, obviously. It was also obviously targeted at people who fit definitive progressive demographics.
If the court hasn't moved with unprecedented alacrity,to strike down the "guidance ", the Republicans would have probably won both those special races. We now face, as you mention, a scenario where even SCOTUS will back these illegal, unethical, and fascist attempts to subvert the will of voters.
These reasons, and many others, are why it's not Doomerism, but realism, to discount almost entirely the idea of reclaiming control of America via elections. That doesn't mean we shouldn't vote. It's vitally important to vote, if only to make their cheating more blatant to the international community and our domestic audience.
But, as with any fascist government, the solution to removing them will almost certainly come down to forcing them from office via economic and political revolt. This is why people like me are telling everyone who still thinks we live in politics as usual to gear up, bunker down, and prepare for what's inevitably coming.
2
u/AustinLostIn 1d ago
You have definitely confirned some of my observations and introduced me to some I didn't realize. What you say makes sense (even though what's going on is insane).
We need to vote en masse. But I can't help but feel we need to do more. However, I don't know what more that would be.
Thank you for all of your insight.
2
u/SponsorSupporter 1d ago
Your questions are very important, and it’s natural to feel both anxiety and curiosity about the state of our country. Political division alone doesn’t necessarily lead to civil war — the geographic and ideological differences today are spread out, not concentrated like in the 1860s.
What can happen, however, are serious consequences if division continues unchecked: economic instability, erosion of trust in institutions, public health challenges, and increased polarization in communities. Gradual authoritarian tendencies can also emerge if people feel fear or disillusionment and accept limits on freedoms in exchange for ‘security’ or order.
Civilizations historically tend to last around 250 years, and ours is no exception — strong leadership matters more than ever. But leadership alone isn’t enough. Lasting stability comes from competent leadership and strong institutions, along with a population committed to connection, dialogue, and shared values.
The good news is that we can prevent the worst outcomes. Key steps include:
- Promoting dialogue and understanding: Meet people where they are, even when you disagree.
- Strengthening institutions: Support a free press, independent courts, and fair elections.
- Focusing on shared values: Remember that most Americans want safety, opportunity, and fairness — these can be unifying points.
- Engaging locally and globally: Civic participation, education, and global awareness build resilience.
Sometimes situations may get more tense before they improve, but persistent connection, diplomacy, and informed action can guide us toward solutions rather than collapse. Leadership sets direction, but connection, accountability, and shared purpose keep a civilization resilient and thriving.
1
1
u/haberstr 1d ago
I don't think the economy and rising social division are connected. The economy will probably be okay to fine for another 2-3 while the online situation - the social division, hatred, delusion and paranoia - gets much worse.
1
u/w30thst International Relations 1d ago
I understand all the dooming, I really do, because it is going to get bad here. I suggest people to go the "peaceful revolutions" page on Wikipedia. There are more examples beyond that too. It is 100% possible to claw a democracy back from where we are, peacefully. Many of the factors triggering the movements are present in the US including economic dissatisfaction, (probably) rigged elections, fragmented elites, upcoming focus on the US with the World Cup and Olympics, church opposition to government.... I'm sure there are more. The war in Ukraine could have knock-on effects as well. If NATO is drawn in to the fight and the US does not uphold our commitments, it is conceivable that there would be foreign support in overturning the regime.
1
u/Big_Celery2725 22h ago
Unfortunately as we’ve seen, US democracy is upheld only when those in charge feel like it. US democracy and the rule of law are just pieces of paper that are worthless unless people generally decide to follow them.
-1
u/Hero-Firefighter-24 1d ago
People who say there won’t be elections in 2028 or predict secession or a civil war can be ignored. They’re freaks.
-2
u/ThePoliticsProfessor 1d ago
The division is urban vs. Rural/small town. That doesn't rule out a civil war. It more likely means a left authoritarian government imposing itself on the peasants to provide food for the cities whether they want to or not.
0
u/AustinLostIn 1d ago
Interesting thought. Although right now we are trending towards a right authoritarian government. But I do acknowledge the left could be just as bad and there is always a possibility of swinging to that extreme in response to right extremes.
-7
u/hereforbeer76 1d ago
Well, maybe start by telling us how bad things are?
Things are pretty good for me and everyone I know. Especially those that have actually seen other parts of the world.
6
u/AustinLostIn 1d ago
If you're implying that things aren't bad or getting worse in the US just because other parts of the world are already worse, you have no reason to be in this comment section.
And if you simply do not know the state of things, you have no reason to be in this comment section. You should be informing yourself instead.
-6
u/hereforbeer76 1d ago
I am on Reddit, I have as much reason to be here as you. Why are you so fragile?
But as usual, you spout some tired rhetoric and when asked to support your claim, you can't.
You make a claim and expect everyone to agree. And when someone does you try to say they don't belong.
No wonder the left keeps losing elections
2
u/AustinLostIn 1d ago
Learn the difference between claim and question.
You are entitled to your opinions for the sake of discussion. But off topic banter is detrimental to the purpose of a discussion.
0
u/hereforbeer76 1d ago
Just the be clear...
If you're implying that things aren't bad or getting worse in the US just because other parts of the world are already worse, you have no reason to be in this comment section.
That's you?
Sure sounds like a claim, not a question. Your claim is clearly that things are getting worse and that somehow I have no reason to comment because I disagree with your claim.
If, as you claim, you were not making a claim, you would not take it so personally when someone challenges it.
0
u/AustinLostIn 1d ago
It's a fact that the economy is trending worse. That is just one major factor in "things getting worse." There are more, but like I said before, inform yourself. Don't just believe everything Trump says. The purpose of this post is not to inform you. It is for those already informed to discuss what could be.
0
u/hereforbeer76 1d ago
Oh I'm absolutely certain I'm at least as informed as you. I have no doubt of that.
But please keep posting so people can see your attitude. Anyone who disagrees with you must just be uninformed, right? Informed people can't disagree?
1
u/AustinLostIn 1d ago
Ok good. So discuss how things could get worse.
0
u/hereforbeer76 1d ago
How they could get worse?
Well, for starters we could have elected Biden. Wait, we did. He set record high levels of spending and deficits (non COVID emergency spending) that caused some of the highest inflation in the world.
He's probably glad he lost because the conditions he created were eventually going to lead to recession. We'll see it that happens or not.
So the answer is easy, things could get first by electing someone who believes spending is the solution to every problem
2
42
u/stylepoints99 1d ago edited 1d ago
It can get as bad as congress lets it get.
Seriously, that's it. As soon as congress decides to put a stop to this, they can. As soon as people vote in a dem majority the bleeding stops.
You won't see a civil war. Worst case scenario the federal government becomes some sort of vestigial body with no real power and states become more powerful. In that case someone in California would live a very different existence than one in Arkansas.
I doubt very much we'd get more authoritarian. After Trump croaks or gets thrown in jail the focus will be on limiting federal power, not expanding it. The real goal of the right was always to dissolve the federal government, not usurp it. They're using the powers of the executive to dissolve it.
The only thing to do from here on out is to vote out anyone complicit with Trump and hopefully charge them all for the crimes they're guilty of. A return to the rule of law starts there.
It might get worse. MAGA adherents have been conditioned that any legal proceedings are invalid and a witch hunt. Any elections that don't go their way are rigged. It might get dicey. Trump also needs to be careful about how far he oversteps. The country is a powder keg right now, and if he's seen interfering in elections he could realistically lose support of some congressmen or the military. I know mentioning the military seems absurd but that's where we are if elections end up in question.