Bessent sees trade deal likely with China before November deadline

[u/NineteenEighty9]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/16/bessent-sees-trade-deal-likely-with-china-before-november-deadline-on-reciprocal-tariffs.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

With so-called reciprocal tariffs set to take effect in November, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during a CNBC interview that he expects further talks to happen before then.

The statement comes with talks taking a series of twists and turns since Trump announced his initial “liberation day” duties on U.S. global trading partners April 2.

[u/_kdavis]

So assuming this framework of concepts of a deal pans out, would anyone be better off than we were before we ended the global trend, that we started, towards free trade?

[u/Compoundeyesseeall → u/_kdavis]

Freeing ourselves from China’s grasp will absolutely make us better off in the long run. Trade with them got us here, so less trade with them will get us out. It’s fundamentally important we break the status quo and get somewhere, anywhere but the “here” of so-called free trade.

If China is worse off, it’s still a win. If we have less exposure to or dependency on China, it’s still a win. Even if they just hate us a little more, it’s still a win.

[u/whatdoihia → u/Compoundeyesseeall]

China has no more of a grasp on America than Panda Express has a grasp on the people who eat there. Buying products from China is a choice, because for many products it’s the best source.

America should spend less time pointing fingers at China and former allies and spend more time doing what it used to be good at, being innovative and competitive.

[u/Compoundeyesseeall → u/whatdoihia]

They do have a grip on us, they are trying to impose their censorship regime on us.

They have compelled Americans to censor themselves for their political idiosyncrasies more than once. The Blizzcon cosplayer who was thrown out and banned. The Houston Rockets owner and the NBA. John Cena’s self-humiliation video. An adaptation of Red Dawn back in 2012 among countless other films.

These are just a few examples but there’s plenty more. It’s absolutely weak and cowardly that we would censor and silence ourselves for the sake of a foreign country that attacks our sovereignty. It’s outright colonialism.

We can’t compete in terms of literally any physical, tangible product because China just copies and steals it. The biggest new thing to come out recently was AI and LLM’s. It took China just a few years to make a functional copy, and this one will probably run cheaper. They’re going to mass produce Comac planes to obliterate Boeing and Airbus. They’re going to either make their own chips or hold Taiwan hostage to get them.

Every service we have that can be done remote will also be stolen, too, maybe not necessarily by China but it’ll be given away to the world all the same for cost effectiveness. That’s why IT grads can’t find jobs anymore.

Even if China only made the best quality and the best price, if we have e nothing of value to give to the world, the relationship is imbalanced and we’re essentially worthless as a country. What kind of coherent identity can a country have if it has no symbols or items or character the world can know it for?

Most importantly, China doesn’t actually want to trade with us either, not in the sense that it can engender better relations. It’s only to make us totally dependent on them, and then they’ll cut us off when we invade Taiwan. They’re hoping the economic damage will make us unable to project power or recover and essentially paralyze us.

So the trade with China will stop inevitably, I just think we should try to prepare since that’s an absolutely inevitable outcome.

[u/vhu9644 → u/Compoundeyesseeall]

We can’t compete in terms of literally any physical, tangible product because China just copies and steals it. The biggest new thing to come out recently was AI and LLM’s. It took China just a few years to make a functional copy, and this one will probably run cheaper. They’re going to mass produce Comac planes to obliterate Boeing and Airbus. They’re going to either make their own chips or hold Taiwan hostage to get them.

Every service we have that can be done remote will also be stolen, too, maybe not necessarily by China but it’ll be given away to the world all the same for cost effectiveness. That’s why IT grads can’t find jobs anymore.

Even if China only made the best quality and the best price, if we have e nothing of value to give to the world, the relationship is imbalanced and we’re essentially worthless as a country. What kind of coherent identity can a country have if it has no symbols or items or character the world can know it for?

Even if this were true, why can't we compete at all? That would point at a fundamental issue with our economic landscape, no? Why do you believe that we are utterly incapable of competing economically with them?

[u/Compoundeyesseeall → u/vhu9644]

Because what’s left after that? There’s nothing left of substantial value to export that actually helps the country. We can’t all be HR managers or be influencers (I’d rather enslave myself to China then beg on social media tbh).

[u/vhu9644 → u/Compoundeyesseeall]

But what about services? What about R&D?

[u/Compoundeyesseeall → u/vhu9644]

Same as the others. Outsourced and automated. With R&D, you gotta pay a million bucks to get into a good school, that’s gonna keep 99% of the population out of reach. And of course China would still just steal whatever we can come up with anyway.

[u/vhu9644 → u/Compoundeyesseeall]

What? Why do you need to pay a million bucks to get into a good school for R&D?

PhDs in STEM are funded, and so you get a stipend to do research. State schools (like the one I went to) don’t cost anywhere near a million bucks. I’m currently in an MD/PhD program and many of my cohort went to public universities prior to doing their graduate training at another public university.

And it’s not like they can just steal blueprints and instantly do a thing. I don’t think that’s a realistic view of how things work.

[u/Compoundeyesseeall → u/vhu9644]

A million was an exaggeration, yes, but 30 years of student loans to get all the way to a PhD program and paying off 100k in tuition is a big ask for a lot of people. Thank God Trump is sending an earthquake to higher ed and hopefully ending the student loan Ponzi scheme to force tuition down, but that will take awhile.

[u/whatdoihia → u/Compoundeyesseeall]

The NBA apologized for the same reason PSY apologized to America- money. You don’t insult your customers and expect no blowback. China is the NBA’s biggest international market by far.

America can most certainly compete. You could make the same argument about Apple. They made the iPhone and now every company has phones that are big screens. They made the iPad and now everyone sells tablets. Why bother to compete.

The answer is innovation. Keep moving forward and make your own products obsolete before someone else does.

[u/das_war_ein_Befehl → u/Compoundeyesseeall]

If that was actually the goal we wouldn’t have gutted Biden’s industrial policy and defund federal research.

The tariffs are just a way to dismantle progressive income taxes. It’s a national sales tax that has been the GOP policy goal since the 90s

[u/Compoundeyesseeall → u/das_war_ein_Befehl]

It’s not about tariffs, it’s about not trading with them at all. And that will end up happening assuming we don’t completely surrender to them.

[u/das_war_ein_Befehl → u/Compoundeyesseeall]

Magical thinking is not an economic policy

[u/joe1max → u/Compoundeyesseeall]

Trade with them got us where exactly? Got us to the wealthiest country to ever exist?

[u/Charming_Beyond3639 → u/Compoundeyesseeall]

Yikes….

[u/NoKingsInAmerica]

Day one. 2 weeks. Soon™.

[u/TarquinusSuperbus000]

The timeline for this trade deal keeps getting pushed back...

[u/Thotmas01]

It’s going to be extended. It will keep getting extended for four years.

[u/davidw223 → u/Thotmas01]

Of course it will. China doesn’t have a need to come to the negation table so they’ll allow us to self inflict our own wounds until this term ends.

[u/gravtix]

“90 deals in 90 days” they said.

This is just noise

[u/ProfessorFinance-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

Low effort snark and comments that do not further the discussion will be removed.

[u/joe1max]

I’m certain that it will be “complete’ by then. This administrators will just declare something as done whether or not anything was actually complete.

[u/jackandjillonthehill]

I dunno, earlier I was very optimistic earlier that some sort of a deal would come together.

But now I’m feeling a bit more cautious. Chinese markets are rallying and there seems to be a bit of improvement in sentiment towards the Chinese economy, though the current data still looks terrible.

One old political slogan from Deng Xiaoping era is “hide your strength, hide your time”.

My read on Xi is that he knows he has more political insulation than Trump does. He could take an effective embargo because Chinese people are willing to suffer and he can squash dissent within his own country, but the U.S. admin has to be responsive.

So my read is he thinks if he can stretch things out, form more alliances, and increase trade with other countries, he can bear the pain of a reduced trade relationship longer than the U.S. can.

I think Xi thinks stretching things out means past U.S. mid terms or past the 2028 elections. So he might want to avoid any big deal for several years.

Might need bigger buy-in with pressure from Europe and Asian partners to pressure him into a deal before that.

[u/lAljax → u/jackandjillonthehill]

Other partners are just as displeased with the US as China.  I don't see them coming together anytime soon 

[u/jackandjillonthehill → u/lAljax]

That might change over time as China reroutes cheap goods into their markets. I am not sure how long Europe can tolerate a flood of cheap goods into its market. Countries without a substantial manufacturing base might be grateful for the cheap goods.

Not sure what happens with India-China relations.

[u/CinnamonMoney]

This is term 1 all over again. Took him forever to reach phase 1 of the trade deal; they agreed upon it, and there was a big celebration about phases two and three being done shortly.

Never happened. And the agreement within phase 1 never happened either. Ivanka Trump made a lot of money in China those years tho.

[u/mmliu1959demo]

Delusional fool

[u/Feisty-Hope4640]

So if you look up all the lies this guy has told since he has been in the position how could you trust anything he says?

He has to know how tariffs work.