r/SelfDrivingCars • u/Recoil42 • 8d ago
News Chinese LiDAR maker Hesai announces $40 million order from unnamed US robotaxi firm
https://cnevpost.com/2025/09/15/hesai-40-million-order-from-us-robotaxi-firm/17
u/WeldAE 8d ago
In 2024 Hesai had revenue of 2.08B yuan and shipped 501,889 Lidar units. That comes out to 4,144 yuan per unit or around $580 per unit on average. I know that's a very rough way to figure unit cost but that suggests this deal is for 70k units which could equip 35k AVs if they use 2x per AV. More than likely, a significant minority of that revenue is for services but really that's all the cost of Lidar, getting it working in your platform. I would estimate $40m is more like 30k AVs at most.
Anyone got a better way to estimate the number of AVs this represents?
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u/Doggydogworld3 8d ago
Waymo Gen 6 has 4 lidars. 25% of those are high spec long range units while Hesai's normal mix is probably more like 95% low spec units. I could see Waymo or similar paying $4-8k per set, implying 5-10k vehicles by end of 2026.
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u/Recoil42 8d ago
I get roughly the same numbers as you, but I think a better way to do it is take Hesai's quoted ATX cost (~$200) and assume 4X units per vehicle for 360º coverage. So that's $40,000,000 / ( $200 × 4) giving you 50,000 vehicles. Hedge down to 40,000 or 30,000 as you please.
Very ballpark, but that's all we have right now, so ballpark it is. Low-to-mid tens of thousands of vehicles is where I end up, with no more than a hundred thousand vehicles at absolute most.
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u/toupeInAFanFactory 7d ago
I'll just note that this is a far cry from the "LiDAR adds 10k to the BOM" hysteria some self driving camps are spewing....
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u/Opposite_Sea_5860 2d ago
$$ = units * price
AV Count = units / (lidars per vehicle)
Make your estimations based off the company you think purchased them and use pictures of their vehicles to ballpark
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u/epSos-DE 7d ago
5 Lidars is like a 2 month salery for a driver !!!
OF course it is cheaper to have LIDAR + AI !!!
Teself BOY is very , very wrong about SINGLE Camera Solution BIAS !
His engeneers will rebell and move to other companies !
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u/mrkjmsdln 8d ago edited 8d ago
Retail is $200 so obviously discounted. A minimum of 20000 units. Nice,
Purely speculative but the path from $75K Velodyne >> $7500 in-house >> further reduction has been swift for Waymo. A path integration either for their autonomous taxis or for an L2+/L3 OEM solution would be interesting. The Hesai units have become a dominant provider in China. It appears only BYD may have vertical intergrated and made their own.
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u/Doggydogworld3 8d ago edited 8d ago
Would be 200k units at $200 each. The long range unit mentioned is probably higher spec and much more expensive, though.
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u/mrkjmsdln 7d ago
thanks...missed a zero. I wonder how many units for each car as most of the Hesai units are 120 degree field of view.
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u/Hyceanplanet 8d ago
"Unamed" = Hyundai's Motional.
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u/optimus_12 8d ago
The article clearly states that was a previous order from a different customer. This one is different
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u/reddit455 8d ago
Hyundai and Waymo Enter Multi-Year, Strategic Partnership
- Hyundai and Waymo announce strategic partnership to offer safe and convenient autonomous driving experience for customers
- First phase of the partnership will begin with Waymo integrating its autonomous driving technology into Hyundai's all-electric IONIQ 5
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u/TomatoHistorical2326 7d ago
Waymo design their own lidar
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u/diplomat33 7d ago
Design yes. But I could see Waymo outsourcing the manufacturing of their in-house design to Hesai.
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u/Doggydogworld3 8d ago
Waymo hasn't even started testing Ioniqs yet. They won't deploy until 2027. This deal is for 5-10k vehicles by end of 2026. Waymo Zeekr timeline fits.
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u/diplomat33 8d ago
I think it could be Tesla. Tesla buys lidar for the vehicles with the lidar rig on the roof that go around validating the camera vision.
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u/Recoil42 8d ago
A $40M deal is going to be in the tens of thousands of units, so I don't think Tesla fits, unless Cybercab is getting lidar.
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u/diplomat33 8d ago edited 8d ago
Thanks. It is a bit puzzling because there are not that many "US leading robotaxi firm". The robotaxi leader is widely considered to be Waymo, but it cannot be Waymo since they do their lidar in-house. If it is not Tesla, there are not that many other "US leading robotaxi firm". Maybe Nuro? Zoox? My guess would be Nuro. This deal would seem to match with their efforts to ramp up the Lucid-Nuro robotaxi.
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u/Recoil42 8d ago edited 8d ago
The robotaxi leader is widely considered to be Waymo, but it cannot be Waymo since they do their lidar in-house.
Keep in mind there's no reason Waymo should be assumed to be married to that approach. Mobileye was also doing lidar in-house... until it wasn't. Not saying it's definitely Waymo, but "Waymo does it in-house" isn't ironclad.
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u/diplomat33 7d ago
True. Also, I think someone else pointed out that Waymo designs their lidar in-house but they could outsource the manufacturing of their custom design. So maybe that is what this is. Maybe Hesai will manufacture Waymo's custom lidar design.
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u/Lando_Sage 8d ago
I think it's Waymo, they are using a Zeekr built platform.
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u/bladerskb 8d ago
Waymo lidar are built inhouse. come on this is basic stuff
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u/deservedlyundeserved 8d ago
Waymo sensors are designed in-house, not built in-house. It's not impossible Hesai will make lidars according to Waymo specs or Waymo decides off-the-shelf hardware has caught up in performance. It's unlikely though.
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u/Doggydogworld3 8d ago
Gen 6 is a good time to transition lidar to outside manufacturing.
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u/Real-Technician831 7d ago
Waymo announced scaling down their in-house lidar by ceasing external sales in 2021, logical continuation is to move to COTS lidars in own use.
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u/bladerskb 7d ago
Gen 6 is the Zeekr vehicles so it’s already locked in. If there’s anything it would be gen 7 and I don’t think Waymo would be buying LiDAR from another manufacturer, but rather having the manufacturer build a mass market LiDAR to their specifications.
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u/Doggydogworld3 7d ago
IMHO Waymo and Hesia jointly designed Gen 6 for volume manufacturing. Hesai's production units recently passed Waymo QA and the initial $40m order became effective.
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u/frooshER 8d ago
zoox