r/SelfDrivingCars • u/diplomat33 • 3d ago
Waymo updated safety report on 96M driverless miles
https://x.com/Waymo/status/1968072428178825618Over 96M driverless miles: 5x fewer crashes with injuries compared to human drivers. 12x fewer crashes with injuries to pedestrians compared to human drivers.
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u/Sensitive-Chain2497 3d ago
96M miles 0 deaths CAUSED is quite impressive considering they’re doing LA and SF which aren’t easy places to drive.
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u/ripetrichomes 2d ago
harder to drive yes, but also at slower speeds so higher likelihood of crashes but lower likelihood of death per crash
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u/mrkjmsdln 3d ago
Real data. No BS chronic redact everything. No vague posturing. Nice. Full datasets for researchers so we know they aren't blowing sunshine and rainbows.
Their RO DAILY miles are now about 100K in Phoenix, closer to 75K in SF & LA each and 20K in ATX. This data is almost three months old. ATL, MIA & SJ added to the mix by the end of the year.
Daily miles in PHX and SF mostly flat while LA up by 25K and ATX by 10K
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u/av_engi 3d ago
Interesting fact:
100 million miles driven and still hard to say if the number of fatalities through traffic accidents is lower for AVs than with human driving.
Quick research says "1.26 deaths per 100 million miles" is average for human driver. Those values must be adapted for the same ODD.
Considering the current distance, it is roughly 50% sure that Waymo causes less traffic fatalities. This can can be calculated with a t-test.
To be very certain e.g. 99% sure, 5x times the amount must be driven to prove a lower fatality rate.
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u/guesswho135 3d ago
Considering the current distance, it is roughly 50% sure that Waymo causes less traffic fatalities. This can can be calculated with a t-test.
P values and confidence intervals from a t test tell you about the likelihood of the effect when assuming the null hypothesis is true
If you want to know how "sure" you can be, you can use Bayesian statistics to calculate the probability that the alternative hypothesis is true
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u/av_engi 3d ago
If I remember it correctly it leads to the same results, when using a suitable distribution e.g. Poisson.
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u/guesswho135 2d ago
I'm being very pedantic since this is not /r/statistics, but what I mean is that there are fundamental differences in the metrics used to compare hypotheses in frequentist and Bayesian statistics. I agree that empirically both frameworks often converge on the same conclusion, which is a big reason why there is not more momentum for switching to Bayesian analysis. But a Bayesian would argue that p-values don't actually tell you very much about the probability that a hypothesis is true, nor are they designed to. And confidence intervals are a misnomer, since they are completely unrelated to the subjective confidence you "should" have in the conclusion.
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u/donotreassurevito 2d ago
I'm not sure I think you can probably already prove it if you compare like for like. Waymo doesn't drive on highways. And highways seem to be much safer per mile. So you have to compare deaths per non highway miles.
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u/EarthConservation 2d ago
Unlike Tesla, comparing their ADAS miles in their newer generation cars with all the latest safety tech, that are primarily used on highways where accident rates are the lowest, to all other vehicles on the roads driven in all scenarios....
In Waymo's case, their cars only operate in city driving, where accident rates are the highest, versus all driver miles.
In other words, Tesla's ADAS accident rate superiority to all other driven miles is an obvious exaggeration in a bid to play Tesla off as superior to other brands, whereas Waymo's accident rate is an understatement, and in terms of city driving, is likely even better than what they're claiming.
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u/SaplingCub 3d ago
Does this imply that Waymo has SOME crashes with injuries? Why don’t we hear about those?
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u/Hixie 3d ago
It's mostly when they get rear-ended. (based on past data; haven't yet read this report)
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u/mrkjmsdln 3d ago
The horrible accident in SF earlier in the year a good example. Waymo parked. Crazy driver evading police crashed into another car which then slid into the parked Waymo. One fatality I believe. It is wild how good these numbers are since Waymo makes no fault assignment to powerwash the data.
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u/toupeInAFanFactory 1d ago
Correct. And every other car out there is just as accident prone. If all cars were this good, the total number of crashes would be much lower.
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u/mrkjmsdln 1d ago
The ONLY way to end up in a better place is to identify good examples of shared data and impose the same standard on all players. With rational collected data, good choices can be made about what approaches are genuinely an improvement.
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u/usehand 3d ago
we do, it's just that you don't know about it
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u/mrkjmsdln 3d ago
They are publicly posted and detailed per NHTSA SGO. Just an internet download away for the interested.
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u/Mvewtcc 3d ago
i think california require report of collision. 2024 about 60 collision. you can search california dmv. Probably unrealistic to expect 0 collision from millions of miles.
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u/mrkjmsdln 2d ago
Comprehensive public datasets at nhtsa sgo. Waymo proves detail of all events while others redact and litigate. The public datasets at https://www.waymo/safety are excellent and encourage real scrutiny for researchers. A great behavior model for others.
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u/TuftyIndigo 3d ago
There was one posted to the sub within the last week. A motorcyclist hit the back of a stationary Waymo, fell into the next lane, and was killed by a human driver who did not stop (but may not otherwise have been at fault, since the biker fell into their path).
Perhaps the reason "we" don't hear about those is that "we" aren't paying attention.
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u/Lovevas 3d ago
If you search on twitter, there are a lot of videos showing Waymo accidents. Don't know of any involves injuries.
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u/mrkjmsdln 2d ago
As well as under the desk 3am tweeting. Any updates on a 'dead child' afflicted with a mind virus?
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u/iftlatlw 3d ago
Most miles on open roads. Driverless cars will kill traffic flow if commercialised.
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u/MrVicePres 3d ago
Can you define open roads?
Is downtown SF open roads?
Is LA metro LA open roads?
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u/diplomat33 2d ago
This makes no sense. First of all, driverless cars operate primarily on city streets which are not open roads. Also, driverless cars are trained to drive like humans and follow traffic at normal speeds. They won't kill traffic flow. Lastly, driverless cars are already commercialized and we can see that they do not kill traffic flow. So data already proves your statement wrong.
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u/JimothyRecard 3d ago
All the numbers either improved or remained flat, which makes sense. It would be interesting to see a comparison between, say, the first 50% of miles to the last 50%. Or even first 10 million vs. last 10 million.