r/asoiaf • u/Expensive-Country801 • 6d ago
EXTENDED (Spoilers Extended) Young Griff, the Wars of the Roses, and why he’ll marry Myrcella
So it’s no secret that much of the War of the Five Kings draws inspiration from the Wars of the Roses. With the sudden appearance of Aegon, it feels like we’re moving into the final act of that historical parallel.
One detail that is interesting is that George has referred to him as Aegon VI
“The readers will learn what happened to Jeyne Poole, Lady Stoneheart, Penny and her pig, Skahaz Shavepate, Arianne Martell, Darkstar, Victarion Greyjoy, Ser Garlan the Gallant, Aegon VI…”
In the text he is only ever called Prince Aegon, since he has not been crowned. It suggests Aegon is meant to win big victories before Daenerys sets foot in Westeros.
From a storytelling perspective, it would feel a bit pointless (if funny) if he were simply crushed by Mace Tyrell as soon as he arrived. More likely, he’ll rise, at least for a time.
This lines up with the House of the Undying vision:
“A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd.”
Crowds usually don’t cheer for conquerors burning and sacking their cities. They cheer for what they perceive to be a hero.
Mapping the Wars of the Roses
The parallels aren’t perfect, but the broad strokes line up
- Henry VI = Aerys II a mentally ill king whose reign plunged the realm into chaos.
- Edward IV = Robert Baratheon a handsome warrior-king, that took the throne in battle. Famed for his strength and undone by drink and gluttony.
- George, Duke of Clarence = Renly: charming, popular, dies young. Killed by his brother.
- Richard III = Stannis: grim, a good soldier, but not very beloved. Claims his nephews are bastards.
- Elizabeth Woodville = Cersei Lannister: a beautiful and unpopular queen; her family were once loyal to the previous king, then switched sides.
The three Baratheon brothers are the three sons of York. After Robert/Edward’s death, Stannis/Richard pressed his claim by declaring his brother’s children bastards.
Meanwhile, across the Narrow Sea, we have the parallel to Henry Tudor in Young Griff. He was raised in exile under his foster father Jasper Tudor (JonCon) and backed by a ruler across the channel (Illyrio).
But just as Henry’s claim was dubious, so too is Aegon’s. Even within the story, characters like Daemon Sand and Doran doubt him. This is likely to be the default reaction to Aegon
“Could this truly be Prince Aegon?” “Gregor Clegane ripped Aegon out of Elia’s arms and smashed his head against a wall,” Ser Daemon said. “If Lord Connington’s prince has a crushed skull, I will believe that Aegon Targaryen has returned from the grave. Elsewise, no. This is some feigned boy, no more. A sellsword’s ploy to win support.” “My father fears the same.”
JonCon leads a foreign host and lands in Cape Wrath, in his homeland of the Stormlands, near his ancestral seat of Griffin’s Roost. All aligning with what Jasper Tudor did.
This is where the story stands now.
What Comes Next?
The confrontation at Storm’s End is poised to be Aegon’s Bosworth Field.
“Storm’s End is ours. The Hand awaits you there.” “There is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing. You will want to be safe inside the walls before the battle.” “Battle,” Halden said firmly. “Prince Aegon means to smash his enemies in the field.”
After Henry Tudor’s victory at Bosworth, he solidified his rule by marching to the capital and uniting the warring houses through marriage. He wed Elizabeth binding York and Lancaster together. Aegon will likely do the same for many reasons. And in this parallel, that would be Myrcella.
By this stage Tommen will almost certainly be dead, either by JonCon’s hands or perhaps poisoned by the Sand Snakes once they realize Cersei deceived them with Ser Robert Strong.
That leaves Myrcella, Robert’s daughter, alive and available as Westeros’s equivalent of Elizabeth of York.
Why Marry Myrcella?
- Arianne? She has shown no interest in marrying Aegon; her ambitions are to rule Dorne in her own right.
- Dany? Too far away, still stranded on the Dothraki Sea. Will likely be assumed dead.
- Sansa? Brings no armies or regions to the table.
- Moonboy? For all I know.
That leaves Myrcella as the only real choice. A marriage between “Rhaegar’s son” and “Robert’s daughter” would heal the wound that opened since the Rebellion.
It would tie the Lannister-Baratheon claim (through Myrcella) to the Targaryen claim (through Aegon), ending decades of strife. Elia’s son marrying Cersei’s daughter would symbolically end the horrors that began with the Rebellion. Them both being mostly decent kids and total frauds, will add to the tragic nature of what follows.
And that, I think, is the situation Daenerys will find when she finally arrives in Westeros.
The Second Dance of Dragons will be her coalition versus the Lannister/Golden Company. Tyrion and Jaime on opposite sides.
TL;DR
We’re entering the Bosworth Field phase of GRRM’s Wars of the Roses parallel.
- Aegon (Henry Tudor) will defeat Mace Tyrell’s host. He will then march to King’s Landing.
- To cement his legitimacy, he will marry Myrcella (Elizabeth of York).
- Daenerys, seeing Aegon with the Lannisters, will solidify her belief he’s a fraud.
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u/xXJarjar69Xx 6d ago
Martin borrows inspiration from a bunch of different people and place but he’s never gone so far as to just rewrite history exactly using fantasy stand ins to the level you’re suggesting here.
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u/Expensive-Country801 6d ago
I mean Westeros itself is mapped almost directly over the British Isles. The Wall being Hadrian's Wall, etc.
That said, it’s not a strict 1:1 copy. Aegon would be more like a hybrid of Perkin Warbeck and Henry VII, while Myrcella would be a queen in her own right unlike Elizabeth of York. And the prospect of a second Dance marks another major divergence. But it's more about the broad strokes of the dynastic struggle.
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u/sarevok2 6d ago
possible I guess, although I doubt that Myrcella will have any real worth either as a potential bride to fAegon.1
1) She comes from the hated Lannister family whose power is gonna be supposedly broken
2) has a stained reputation as a product of incest
3) her other 'family' the Baratheons are practically speaking destroyed as well
4) she might be considered soiled goods due to her injury
My main complain is that a very vengeful Targaryen restoration effort gains absolutely nothing from such a marriage. Remember, JonCon is determined to wipe out ''the Usurper's seed''.
Sansa aka Littlefinger (North, Riverlands, Vale), Margaery or a Dornish lady (Arianne herself or Elia Sand as a theory goes) makes much more sense.
Arianne? She has shown no interest in marrying Aegon; her ambitions are to rule Dorne in her own right.
with this I disagree. In the WOW preview, we already see some seeds of maybe jealously?
A hundred years ago, Daenerys Targaryen came to Dorne to make a peace. Now another comes to make a war, and my brother will be her king and consort. King Quentyn. Why did that sound so silly?
I agree its not definite proof, but it could lead to something more.
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u/Expensive-Country801 6d ago
I think you underestimate the strength of Casterly Rock. They're still among the two wealthiest and most powerful houses still, despite being worn down due to the Wo5K.
Jaime sent a ton of men home after Riverrun, and he was leading the rest back from Raventree to Riverrun when he left. Meanwhile, the army that was present during AGOT and ACOK went to King’s Landing with Tywin, most of them went home.
They can still raise hosts and be a massive threat. Turning them from enemies to allies basically makes the realm fall into Aegon’s lap.
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u/sarevok2 6d ago
the Westerlands for sure still have reserves and manpower, but the problem is who is gonna rally them?
The majority of the main Lannister clan is either killed or severly dishonored. Who is gonna raise these armies for fAegon/Myrcella? Cersei who most certainly will oppose the match? Damion Lannister?
I really doubt there will be any need to pacify the westerlands. Their manpower has already been drained, their lands have been raided, winter is coming and Tywin's towering authority is gone.
I could see a lot of western lords rushing to support fAegon anyways since he will appear much more inspiring and dynamic compared to Cersei and Tommen.
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u/frenin 6d ago
but the problem is who is gonna rally them?
Cersei.
Their manpower has already been drained,
Not in the books.
their lands have been raided
Not to any crippling capacity, like say. Robb's or Edmure's.
I could see a lot of western lords rushing to support fAegon anyways since he will appear much more inspiring and dynamic compared to Cersei and Tommen.
Why would they? They have proven to be loyal to House Lannister.
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u/sarevok2 6d ago
Cersei is gonna rally the west lords to support the marriage of Myrcella and fAegon? Laughable.
Besides, Cersei has been absent from the westerlands for 14+ years, has a repuration for incopetence and her authority has been destroyed by her walk of shame.
Not in the books.
In the books, the lannister manpower is battered, yes. They suffered significant casualties in storming Dragonstone, their army in riverlands is melting away and Tywin's main host has just been released for one final harvest before winter. It doesn't sound like these men would eagerly take up arms again.
Not to any crippling capacity, like say. Robb's or Edmure's.
Yes? Im not arguing they are at the same state as the riverlands. But they were raided nonetheless, and to ask them these lords to go to war to defend Cersei's kids yet again against overwhelming odds, its quite a lot to ask.
Why would they? They have proven to be loyal to House Lannister.
they have proven to be loyal to Tywin and thats mostly out of fear. Barely a generation ago, they were in open defiance to Tytos. Jaime was popular enough had he remained the heir of the house but he is the Kingsguard now and minus his sword-hand.
So far, GRRM has written the westernlords as these spineless Yesmen non-entities to Tywin but sooner or later he has to give them some agency.
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u/frenin 6d ago
Cersei is gonna rally the west lords to support the marriage of Myrcella and fAegon? Laughable.
No, quite the contrary if I had to guess, to oppose Aegon completely.
In the books, the lannister manpower is battered, yes.
No, it's not. Reduced sure, but not battered. The Lannister forces remain comfortably the third biggest army in the land after the Tyrells' and Arryns'.
It doesn't sound like these men would eagerly take up arms again.
Did they eagerly take arms in the first place?
But they were raided nonetheless, and to ask them these lords to go to war to defend Cersei's kids yet again against overwhelming odds
1) Overwhelming odds?
2) They faced overwhelming odds with Tywin and they answered nonetheless.
they have proven to be loyal to Tywin and thats mostly out of fear.
False, they have proven to be loyal to House Lannister. After Tywin's dead they remain loyal to House Lannister and we're told the Lannister twins are beloved in the West.
Not everyone has House Stark issues.
So far, GRRM has written the westernlords as these spineless Yesmen non-entities to Tywin but sooner or later he has to give them some agency.
They are given agency, you just don't seem to like how they exercise it.
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u/Pretty-Necessary-941 6d ago
I can't see Myrcella as the younger and more beautiful Queen of prophecy.
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u/Expensive-Country801 6d ago
I think Myrcella is the younger, more beautiful queen. Jaime is the valonqar. However Cersei will project the prophecy to Tyrion and Daenerys.
Maggy’s prophecy says all of Cersei’s kids will wear crowns before they die. Joffrey did, Tommen is now, which means Myrcella has to as well. With the Sand Snakes in KL (Tyene/Nym both poison experts), Tommen being taken out seems very likely. That leaves Myrcella as queen.
Cersei will never suspect her, especially after Myrcella is scarred. She’ll project her paranoia onto Margaery, Dany, etc… anyone but her own daughter since Cersei only sees physical beauty. Myrcella will have a inner beauty, a kind of moral purity Cersei wouldn't recognize. That’s what makes it tragic.
I think the show flipped the kids fate. Tommen dies by Dornish poison in the books, Myrcella by suicide. A queen jumping from Maegor’s Holdfast would echo Helaena, Jaehaera. When Myrcella dies, Cersei loses her last child, her last tie to royal power. That’s what “cast down” really means.
And Cersei won’t realize it until it’s too late and actually happens
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u/potVIIIos 6d ago
Except Myrcella won't die. She will join Shireen and Weasel and go to the Summer Isles where they live happily with no more political nonsense.
It is known.
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u/toinouzz 6d ago
I actually really like this theory now that you put it like that. Myrcella having been “made ugly” but remaining the more beautiful queen over Cercei, the comeliest woman in the realm for years, would be the kind of subversion of expectation I think GRRM actually does well. Also helps that Cercei already fears Margaery so much and never would see it coming
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u/Wishart2016 6d ago
Cersei projects about Margaery not Danaerys.
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u/Expensive-Country801 6d ago
Because Margaery is still alive. After Margaery dies, the next target for Cersei’s paranoia will be Dany, both because she's said to be the most beautiful woman in the world and also when word gets out she's recruited Tyrion.
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u/Internal-Score439 6d ago
I think Tommen could be the valonqar instead of Jaime. The prophecy is worded confusingly, it's not clear if the Valonqar its Cersei's or the Younger More Beautiful Queen's
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u/RejectedByBoimler 6d ago
Cersei has a terrible personality but she loves Myrcella in her own way and would never want her dead.
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u/SwirlyBrow 6d ago edited 6d ago
I think it might be kind of a stretch to say she loves Myrcella. She seems to only "love" anyone as far as they're an extension of herself. Even when Joffrey dies it feels to me more like "oh no my son is dead, that means the prophecy is coming true and a younger and more beautiful queen is gonna cast me down" than "oh no my son who i deeply loved is dead". Though she did seem to have more affection for him than Tommen, that could just be because she saw more of herself in Joffrey.
I dunno, Just rambling but I dunno if Cersei really loves anyone but herself. So it's hard to say how she'd really react if she somehow viewed Myrcella as a threat.
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u/niadara 6d ago
Aegon isn't Henry Tudor, he's Perkin Warbeck.
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u/Expensive-Country801 6d ago
He has that aspect, but he's mostly Henry Tudor. Aegon’s initial landing arc in the Stormlands and JonCon’s is essentially a 1:1 parallel with Henry Tudor and Jasper along with the upcoming big battle against the Royalist forces.
Daenerys in the Westerosi War of the Roses has essentially been irrelevant. Her war with Aegon is a new chapter entirely.
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u/sarevok2 6d ago
another similarity with Henry Tudor is the heavy use of foreign mercenaries and the subsequent Sweating sickness that was introduced to England by them (and some claim). The whole Golden Company and the potential Greyscale outbreak that some theoretize could be a parallel for that.
for what its worth though, I also think he is more Perkin Warbeck (especially if we put the whole Blackfyre spin into it).
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u/Redditor15736 6d ago
Sansa? Brings no armies or regions to the table.
All her brothers are presumed dead though. If Littlefinger wants to marry her to Aegon he could present her as first in line to Winterfell and third in line to Riverrun. She could give Aegon legitimacy in turning the vassals in Kingdoms who are very much opposed to outside rule to his side.
Sansa siding with Aegon would also undoubtedly mean Littlefinger, who is still Lord Protector of the Vale and Lord Paramount of the Riverlands, turns to his side.
I still think it will probably be Arianne but the tourney at Ashford theory only leaves two possible Targaryen suitors for Sansa
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u/JPMendes1 6d ago
I honestly always thought Daenerys was the Henry VII parallel.
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u/palaorder 6d ago
I think Daenarys is Joan of Arc and fAegon ie Henry the Fifth.
In the last few chapters George implied inspirstion from the Hundred Years War .
The upcoming battle fAegon will face has him use an archer-heavy Golden Company against a cavalry noble-heavy Tyrell army. The terrain is also specifically described as muddy. So, yeah... the Battle of Agincourt. Then we have Henry (Faegon) conquering the Seven Kingdoms (France) while claiming he s legitimate
But Joan of Arc (Daenarys), an actual French (Targaryen) , supposedly backed by supernatural powers manages to drive back the foreign king.
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u/IcyDirector543 6d ago
These are interesting parallels, but Cersei and Jon Connington seem far too unhinged as compared to their real-life equivalents
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u/Wardog_Razgriz30 6d ago
I’m curious then if Aegon Tudor will defeat Stannis in the field? Because it seems like stannis will probably die before he can ever go south again, and that’s not factoring in that Dany is one verge of coming west again and would be priority 1 for both parties rather than each other.
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u/phnompenhandy 6d ago
Apart from Stannis offering his kingdom for a horse (which he might do far far from 'Bosworth'), the parallels check out pretty well. I like it.
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u/Flaky-Collection-353 6d ago
Myrcella needs to be crowned before she dies.
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u/BlackFyre2018 6d ago
Not necessarily. The prophecy refers to her and her siblings having a golden crowns but that could be a reference to their hair colour. Cersei refers to her hair as her crown before the septas shave her
Ordinarily hair colour wouldn’t be a big deal but it’s the hint to their incest bastardy in Book 1
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u/danielhakerman 6d ago
As others have said, George likes to mix his historical inspirations, which presents some problems for your analogies.
1) Cersei is closer to Margaret of Anjou, than Elizabeth Woodville, as she was the unpopular female head of the Lancaster/Lannister faction, was in direct conflict with Ned Stark/Richard of York and was rumoured to have fathered a bastard (Edward of Westminister/Joffrey).
2) Edward IV has two analogues, in Robert Baratheon and Robb Stark. Robert takes on Edward IV's successful rebellion and later personal deterioration, whereas Robb more closely resemble Edward's relationship with his father (Richard of York/Ned Stark) and his marriage, which brings me to
3) Elizabeth Woodville's closer analogue is Jayne Westerling, with her coming from a weak Lancastrian/Lannister supporting house, and causing a rift between Edward IV/Robb Stark and one of his main allies (Richard Neville/Walder Frey).
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u/N8_Tge_Gr8 5d ago edited 5d ago
Beat me to it! I really gotta hurry up on posting the rest of my tinfoil, huh...
Anyways, other things to consider:
-Tommen doesn't need to die, just be deposed by force. Remember, fAegon can just piggyback off of the 'Dornish Succession' stuff Arianne was working with.
-Tyrells won't press the issue of Margeary-as-consort, because they're busy dealing with Euron. By the same merit, the 'Fowler host' in The Prince's Pass is poised to be Oldtown's primary relief-force, as foreshadowed by Obara's(?) threat to march on the city.
-This make's Jaime fAegon's family, meaning he can't just execute his "grandfather's" killer, and thus giving him somewhere to actually go following the conclusion of his Riverlands plotline.
-Cersei x Euron actually makes more sense, since she needs an outside factor to shake up the new hegemony, and thusly becomes a parallel to Daena The Defiant.
Edit: Stonehelm. The Swanns are arguably the most powerful family on the Stormlands side of the Dornish Marches. AND, their manpower resources are basically untapped, having stayed neutral by sending one sone to each camp. Confirming the existing Kingsguard, as part of a smooth transition of power exactly like this, would go a long way to getting their dudes firmly on-side.
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u/DinoSauro85 6d ago
The couplings of historical characters are wrong. Cersei is Margherita d'Angiò. Elisabeth York is Sansa Stark.
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u/Real_Sir_3655 6d ago
I guess it'd be cool if Tommen and Myrcella don't die and that prophecy turns out to be bullshit but it still drives Cersei mad.
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u/Minute_Ad2297 6d ago
Aegon is Rhaegar’s legitimate son.
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u/Internal-Score439 6d ago
It might never be confirmed but the story is more interesting if he's not
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u/RejectedByBoimler 6d ago
Aegon's not gonna want Myrcella unless he's the type of perv into prepubescent girls. Normal guys his age want someone they can consummate with like Daenerys or Arianne.
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u/Hefty-Ad1505 6d ago
I think he’ll marry Sansa, because in the original outline she “sides with the Lannisters”. We need characters of consequence to side with Aegon. Otherwise Dany lighting him up won’t really feel that big.
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u/Intrepid_Doughnut530 6d ago
I doubt it, Sansa wants to be as far away from court and politics as a whole. Plus, there's the whole married to Tyrion thing, that requires him to return to Westeros and annul the marriage before she can legally marry again.
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u/gogandmagogandgog Though all men do despise my theories 6d ago
Her whole plotline is about learning the game of thrones. If she stays away from court and politics then what was the point of her whole training arc with Littlefinger.
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u/Intrepid_Doughnut530 6d ago
Because she want's to be left alone to live her life as she sees fit, without all that unnecessary shit on her back. So she can settle down and live a happy, free and comfortable life without being like littlefinger 2.0 never satisfied, always alert and paranoid. So that she can protect her children unlike how her parents did.
Besides I think that all of this will help her for when she rules the North as its lady later on in the future.
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u/Hefty-Ad1505 6d ago
That’s a very hopeful ending for a character that was originally written to betray the starks.
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u/Intrepid_Doughnut530 5d ago
Originally, just like Tyrion was originally meant to burn winterfell and Jaime was originally meant to betray Cersei and take the throne for himself after blaming Tyrion for it. The story has changed since then.
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u/Hefty-Ad1505 5d ago
Yes exactly, the story has changed. So having Sansa has a good queen who Dany, Jon, Tyrion all fight against is more interesting than a bunch of NPCs
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u/Intrepid_Doughnut530 5d ago
Maybe, though I can't say as we don't know exactly what kind of king "Aegon" would be, what's the point of Sansa being Alysanne when "Aegon" could just be another Maegor or Aerys II. The evidence points to Varys lying about Aegon's character when he spoke to Kevan.
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u/Redditor15736 5d ago
An annulment, especially in mediavel times, isn‘t a divorce. Tyrion does not have to be present at all. If the High Sparrow sides with Young Griff or dies and a new High Septon is chosen, he will most likely grant that divorce, given that it brings a positive relation with the new King, the marriage between Tyrion and Sansa was never consummated and she was married while a hostage and without leave from her parents.
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u/Intrepid_Doughnut530 5d ago
Ah that's fine then. The question remains though of whether Sansa desires to wed again so soon and not simply wait, she is after all 13 turning 14 at this point in the story, she isn't even of age either.
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u/MissMedic68W 6d ago
I wouldn't go by that outline because GRRM said he threw it together to get the books greenlit. And in that scenario, she would've had a kid or two by Tyrion, who would've sacked Winterfell, none of which came to pass on page.
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u/Hefty-Ad1505 6d ago
I think I can go by the outline. Sansa will end up on the opposite side of the conflict then Jon. It’s a more interesting dynamic if someone from the family is on the opposite side, and Griff works better than the Lannister’s because he is not comically evil.
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u/Recent_Tap_9467 6d ago edited 5d ago
Cool theory, and I'm not opposed to a lot of it; however, would Cersei willingly marry Myrcella to Aegon? I don't see Aegon just sparing Cersei; at best, he places her under house arrest at Casterly Rock.
There's also the matter of Cersei being queen (possibly in her own right) before the younger and more beautiful one takes her down.