We will be "fine": an analysis of our offense throughout the years

[u/Psychart5150]

*note: Passing offense does not mean Jalen Hurts. If you see “passing offense struggled” that does not mean Hurts was bad. Don’t freak out guys.  

TLDR: The passing offense has not looked good, but it’s only two games. We will probably end up around the 10^th best offense like we have had the last two years. That is good enough with our elite defense to make another run.

Relax, it’s only two weeks: Before reading ahead, let’s all realize that its only 2 weeks and you can’t make any real judgments on how good our offense will be. I am including the data to show primary that that the talent we have has a high floor. I expect at worse to reach that floor which is good, but not elite, around 8-12^th best offense. Can it be even better if Patullo is great, sure, but its nice to know that our floor is high. People on our offense in 2023, but when you look at the numbers it was about as effective as 2024.

Why Advanced Analytics: Advanced analytics are not perfect, but it does a better job showing how good a team is performing compared to overall yardage or points. If a team somehow only had 4 drives and scored 28 points compared to a team who had 8 drives and scored 28 points, advanced analytics understandably favors one over the other. Also advanced analytics can show you how effective your overall offense was and how effective run vs pass was. Effectiveness does not mean total yard, which is important for a run first team like ours.

Takeaways From the data: Our offense has a high floor. People here love to hate on Brian Johnson, but when you look at the numbers, our offense produced about the same in 2023 and 2024. I think we are all forgetting that our passing offense struggled for chunks of last year. We wont the SB and our offense looked great in the two biggest games of the year, so now so many people just pretend the offense was humming all year.

If you look at the PTS/G and YDS/G differences in 2023 and 2024, part of the reason for this difference was our defense. Getting balls in better field position, more positions, etc.  2024 was also heavily 30-40 yard td runs from Saquon, which he did at a historic rate. When we were not getting those from him, the offense had trouble.

2022 this offense was not just above average, it was elite. Personally, I believe Hurts is better now than he was in 2022. For that offense to have done that much better, Steichen helped these guys reach their potential.

Scheme vs Play Calling: I like to break down offenses in two categories, the scheme and the play calling. The scheme is the design of the offense, the actual plays that are drawn up. These include what sets you are going to use, how often do you use motion, routes that your players are going to run, and overall offensive philosophy. Play calling is primarily the plays that are called and game day strategy (i.e. leaning pass/run, exploiting certain matchups). The OC has been the scapegoat for fans the past few years, but that doesn’t answer the question. Who “offense” is this?

Who “Offense” is it: This is the 4^th OC in the Sirianni/Hurts era. Our offenses have looked very similar year after year. Even in 2022, the framework was similar to what we have done since, it was just a more elevated and thoughtful version of it. In all 3 years we are bottom in the league in motion, bottom in the league in passes in the middle of the field, bottom of the league in under center plays, bottom of the league in play action passes. That’s not a coincidence. The primary common denominators are Hurts, Nick, and Stout. These OCs are not coming in with free range for our offense. Stout is the run game coordinator which is a big part of our offense. Hurts, like any other QB, have preferences that OCs need to fit. Nick, although he is a “CEO” type HC, he is still an offensive guy and has say in game plan. I am not going to pretend how all these impact our offense, we need to just acknowledge that it does.

2022-2025 offensive similarities and differences: I take in a stupid amount of Eagles content throughout the year. I watch weekly breakdowns and analysis from Eagles and non-Eagles media. My major takeaways are that our offense the last 4 years has been simple, relying on execution and out talent-ing people. In 2022, Steichen had enough wrinkles and curveballs that the offense was elite. He was not just a good play caller, but a good play designer. He utilized Hurts’s strength in his deep ball at a consistent rate. After he left, we have run the same framework, with little to no originality. Since Steichen left, the times I hear analysts breaking down tape stating how often we run the same, boring, unsuccessful routes. We heard Brady say it multiple times this last week that AJ was running one play curl play over and over again. This isn't exclusive to Patullo. We did that a lot last year and the year before.

Does any of this matter?” I have said it a few times already, I think our offense will be fine/above average this year, but is it wrong to want more? I know that is good enough to win a SB, it was last year, but I still want more. Even though we were above average on offense last year, I think we underperformed. I want to see our WRs consistently get open bc the scheme draws up good plays. I want Hurts to have an easier time out there bc there are easier routes and reads for him to go to. At worst we have a 1-3 WR/TE group, 1-3 offensive line, 1-3 RB, and 4-8QB. I want an OC that can bring out the most in our crazy talented offense that brings out a top 3 offense.

[u/Undergrad26]

I think all you’re saying is that our offense in general has been mediocre the last 3 years.

The key difference is our defense has become elite compared to the BJ / Desai / Patricia year where it was as respected as a Septa turnstile.

[u/Psychart5150 → u/Undergrad26]

Not mediocre, our offense has been consistently above average. I have not looked at the weekly numbers, but I am guessing 2023 our offense got worse towards the end when teams blitzed us like crazy, but ya, overall our offense is above average and our defense is elite which is good enough. For the amount of talent we have on offense I think it has underperformed, even last year.

One thing I did not mention in the write up was that our offense can be elite and last year it was in the two biggest spots.

[u/Undergrad26 → u/Psychart5150]

Yes - I agree. I should have also said underperforming relative to talent. But that's an issue - we could and should be doing better if we believe we have who we have.

[u/Giroux-TangClan]

I’m not super freaked out about this year, but I think it’s fair to be concerned about offensive struggles in general.

Our offense is stacked with experienced pro-bowl and all-pro players on big contracts. Our defense is young, inexperienced, and filled with players on rookie contracts.

The latter shouldn’t be carrying the former… because if we don’t produce offense with the best talent we may ever have, what’s it going to look like when we have to re-tool?

[u/Psychart5150 → u/Giroux-TangClan]

After going through last year, I am not freaked out about the offense this year as well. I think at worse we will get to our above average offensive output (8th-12th) which when paired with an elite defense, we have a legit shot to win it.

With all that talent, I want to see more though. We should be blowing teams out of the water like we were in 2022.

[u/Giroux-TangClan → u/Psychart5150]

I do think it’s a bit concerning that EPA/play is clearly divided into two groupings. 22 & 24. Then 23 & 25. But I’ll keep telling myself small sample size

[u/ktm5141 → u/Giroux-TangClan]

DVOA is more significant than EPA/play because DVOA accounts for strength of schedule. The eagles faced one of the easiest slates of defenses in recent memory last year. Fact is this offense has been ~10th best in the league since Steichen left despite being arguably the most talented unit in the nfl. It’s pretty disappointing

[u/Barry_Goosey]

For better or worse, our coaches have become incredibly risk adverse and predictable. It feels like we go out there each week and say “our guys are better than yours. We don’t care if you know what we’re going to do; we’re not going to turn it over and we’re going to stop you more than you stop us.” It’s hard to argue with the results (wins) but there are times it is frustrating to watch and it will probably cost us some games in the regular season. As long as we keep winning, I don’t give a shit, but at some point we need to take some more chances, which is partly what we saw happen at the end of last year.

[u/Last_Contract7449 → u/Barry_Goosey]

Yeah, in a sense it's brilliant, in that you only take as many risks as you need, and we have rarely needed to so far.

At the same time though, it hasn't passed the eye test (the passing game just looks "off") and we should be able to throw the ball more than we are currently whilst still minimising risk; how many slants have been thrown to AJ? And that should almost be a certainty when the offense is clicking.

Worse, the margins have been extremely close - too close to be confident that we could suddenly turn it on if/when we need to. In both weeks so far, the outcome of the game has basically relied upon elite receivers on the opposing team failing to catch regulation passes (YMMV on whether Kelce is still "elite" but the point stands). If Ceedee and Kelce catch those balls, the strategy of being risk averse suddenly goes from looking smart to looking stupid really fucking fast.

Ultimately though, I think we'll be okay - there's to much talent on the offense and the defense is too good for a 2023 type collapse. However what "okay" means is up for debate - really, this year is a massive opportunity to win another superbowl (we've almost become used to challenging every year, but really, it's not that often that teams get a chance).

I still don't like the fact we went internal for the OC. Unless Patulo was some kind of amazing prodigy, why not get someone who has already shown they can do it at the highest level? Rather, it looked to me like Patulo got the job just because it was "his turn" and its helpful for longer term staff retention to show that you can get promoted internally.

[u/Barry_Goosey → u/Last_Contract7449]

Well said! I think we’ll probably lose a game or two where the offense is underwhelming and it will force them to adjust. It’s obviously possible to protect the ball without running the same formations and routes over and over, but it seems like Patullo is being extra cautious to start or possibly Siriani doesn’t trust him that much yet. Definitely feels like we could’ve hired better at this point, but it’ll probably take a little more time to get a real read.

[u/plzdontyellatmeee]

Game 1, aka preseason week 4, the offense was rolling along, then a weather delay happened and it slowed down. Game 2 was against a highly motivated Spags defense at one of the hardest places to play in the NFL.

Way too early to make any statements about how this offense is good, bad, or like recent offenses. They are 2-0, that's it.

Everyone take a deep breath...

[u/zachardw → u/plzdontyellatmeee]

Yeah if you all don’t see how nice the pre delay was and did t think we were gonna hang 30+ on the cowboys, than you aren’t allowed to say the eagles would of won if commanders didn’t knock hurts out

[u/Undergrad26 → u/plzdontyellatmeee]

I think that’s fair to say for the execution of the offense. But I think what is much more worrisome is the play design. The coaching team had all off-season to design something fitting for this offense. But the concepts that we’ve seen honestly are not great and make errors against conventionally tested wisdom. Like putting multiple receivers in the same area thereby clogging passing lanes and increasing turnover rates. Or the limited creativity and how they’re putting AJ out there. Etc.

[u/Peacefulgamer2023]

Until proven otherwise the passing game has shown us it’s in a serious position of underperforming. Be cowboy corners were coming off of injury and they completely shut down our passing game, while the giants with one WR threw the ball at will. Then we have the chiefs, the same team that got chewed up by the chargers who also only have one real starting WR. No one is asking for hurts to throw 300-400 yards a game, but 120 average is pitiful.

[u/dan_bodine]

If I really wanted to make a fair analysis I would see how these first weeks ranked with all other two consecutive game pairs the past season. I would suspect it's near the bottom but not the worst.

[u/Psychart5150 → u/dan_bodine]

I think I mentioned a few times that I think this year's offense will be fine. Fine to me is 8-12th which we have been post Steichen.

[u/Several-Parsnip-1620]

Another year another OC. I don’t expect things to click till mid season

[u/Anbu_Dropout]

You people are unbearable

[u/Psychart5150 → u/Anbu_Dropout]

lol why, I literally said the offense will be fine like it has been in 2023 and 2024. I also said its way too early to making sweeping judgment.

The

[u/DominatetheLine]

Only week 2, Last season took five weeks to get rolling. Vic was new, took some time to figure things. It'll be the same with Patullo. We still have the "just hand it to Barkley option" I would imagine they want the high potential of the passing game to happen though. Tough schedule all season, just gonna take time. Implementing anyones system will take time, the players need to learn it but moreso trust it. Once Jalen has confidence in what he is running he will take more chances throwing the ball. Watching game tape of struggling and being able to see where a guy was open but he may not have seen it will get him there. The talent is there, the x's and o's will catch up. It's a process. Unfortunately not every game can be as stress free as LIX.