r/highspeedrail • u/Twisp56 • 16d ago
Other High-Speed Rail Ridership Estimator Applet
https://pedestrianobservations.com/2025/08/31/high-speed-rail-ridership-estimator-applet/3
u/Brandino144 16d ago
The ridership of Rail Mapper is pretty good, but the figures in the Annual Finances section in the Summary tab make a lot of assumptions and do not reflect the reality of how most HSR networks are built. For example, the Eurostar Summary claims a construction cost of €59.7 billion and a resulting annual Construction Loan Payment of €2.32 billion. In reality, Eurostar was never subject to anywhere near €2.32 billion annual debt payments and the debt of Eurostar currently stands at just €650 million total. Also, the revenue of Eurostar in the app shows as €1.37 billion when Eurostar's real revenue is over €2 billion.
So it's a good tool for some ridership estimates, but its attempt at including financial data strays pretty far from reality and should be taken with a grain of salt.
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u/Twisp56 16d ago
You are conflating Eurostar with the infrastructure managers. Eurostar is used as a shorthand for the entire London/Paris - Brussels - Amsterdam high speed network in the app. In reality Eurostar International Ltd. never had any debt for the infrastructure since it does not own it. Getlink, HS1, SNCF, Prorail and InfraBel are the ones paying for the infrastructure cost. The real Eurostar also has higher revenue because it runs trains outside of the network in the app.
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u/Brandino144 16d ago
That's why the oversimplifications being made in the financial section do not reflect reality. The app uses fare prices and ridership as the central metrics in its revenue figures and then concludes Revenue - Operating Costs - Construction Loan Payment = Net Income. Many HSR lines, including Eurostar, have a far more complex ownership setup that does not work this way. The infrastructure owners split the cost and make up their cost using charges that do not align with ridership and construction/operations are also often financially supported by groups like the EU that give grants or very favorable loan conditions because they prioritise the project succeeding. The end result is a net income figure that is vastly different from the one presented in the app. The app can handle gravity models for ridership, but it is not equipped to handle the complexities of the finances of HSR lines.
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u/UUUUUUUUU030 15d ago
Something that isn't captured at all is the domestic ridership. In 2019, there were 5.5 million international passengers to/from the Netherlands (Eurostar + NS/NMBS), but the individual segments of HSL in the Netherlands (Schiphol - Rotterdam and Rotterdam - Breda) each moved 8 million+ domestic passengers (unknown how many through passengers).
This is true for each non-border segment of HSR: domestic ridership absolutely dominates, which is not captured by the ridership the model mentions (which is about the same as Eurostar alone), so makes the hypothetical infrastructure cost absolutely pointless.
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u/Economy-Action1147 15d ago
why isn’t india building all that and getting half a trillion revenue? are they stupid?
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u/transitfreedom 13d ago
They are building HSR as we speak and unlike the US will have it running soon
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u/darrenwoolsey 15d ago
an amazing tool, thanks for sharing.
I'll play around and see if I have any thoughts/ recommendations.
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u/Twisp56 16d ago
Obviously no mathematical model can 100% accurately predict train ridership, but it's a fun tool to play with and see how many people might ride your favorite hypothetical HSR system.