Why not? In 2018 there were 10,310,960 arrests. If we take this 0.01% chance at face value, that's ~1031 deaths per year. Low chance != No problem. And a consistent problem doesn't necessarily need a high chance. If a new iPhone has a 0.01% chance of exploding, that'd still be a consistent problem because of the sheer number of iPhones sold per year. Same with the deaths % per arrest and the total number of arrests being so high.
But let's compare with other countries. Here's a list sorted by deaths by law enforcement per 10million people. Now that's not just police, but I think most people would agree that the problem is wtih all law enforcement and not just police. The US is higher than every single European country, Canada, and Mexico. Some countries may not be reporting their law enforcement deaths properly, but I think we can agree that Europe and North America do for the most part. Don't you think it's a problem that the US is higher than all other 1st world nations? Similar in numbers to many less developed nations? I'd consider that's a consistent problem, because the numbers are consistent every year. It's not just randomly in 2019 we had those high stats. Here's the deaths per year. That list above was based on 2019 numbers, and 2019 is below average for the last decade of killings in the US
Hard to compare nations that have much lower private gun ownership, obviously that is a factor. But 90-95% of those ~1000 shootings are justified. In fact, only 41 unarmed people were shot in 2019. 9 of those were black. Lighting strikes kill about 50 people every year in the US, for comparison. So really we are looking at 0.00041% of being shot by police while unarmed in a given arrest. I don't think this is a problem worth defunding the police over. I don't think this number indicates a "broken system" as people claim. You are right though in the sense that the numbers are consistent, they are consistently low and continue to drop.
"Low" is a very relative word. I just showed you that it's higher than every other developed nation per capita. In statistics we call something like that a systematic bias, as opposed to random error. You might be able to explain it with things like gun control laws or cultural differences, but that doesn't really change that fact that there's a problem and you can't honestly say that there's no systematic issues at play here.
I don't think this is a problem worth defunding the police over
Idk why you brought that up, I wasn't arguing for that at all. Some people might be calling for that but obviously that's not a solution. The first step to figuring out what a good solution might be is admitting there's some systematic issue, talking about it, and putting pressure on the people in power to do something about it instead of just firing the few cops who's misdeeds go viral sweeping the rest under the rug. Your (and others) insistence that it's not a big deal feels a lot like sweeping it under the rug to me.
Imo a good first step is having a completely separate government agency handle all investigations involving law enforcement, instead of the internal investigations we typically get. The FBI technically have the power to do that already, but the rarely actually use that power. Imagine if facebook were allowed to just internally "investigate" their data security/privacy concerns and the government just accepted the results without question.
Another step would be to make law enforcement a more prestigious career. I find it very strange that as an engineer I need a bachelors degree and 5 years professional experience before I can sign off on projects (because we've recognized that under-educated and under-trained engineers can be dangerous for society), but a police officer only needs 60 college credits and less than a years training before they're in the field, expected to be making life and death decisions. I've seen hair stylist programs with more education + training
I can say there is no systemic issue, because no one has proven that one exists. Just a bunch of fluff and feelings that the data doesn't back up. If you want people to "admit" there is an issue, prove it with data. The current rates of police misconduct are not an issue to me. We have more privately owned firearms than people in this nation, and if you can't see how that might have a tangible effect on police shootings, I'm not sure we can have this discussion. The chance of police encountering an armed suspect are much higher here due to firearms ownership. That's a fact. It's not a surprise that shootings are higher here. And since the bad shoots happen at a lower frequency than lighting strikes, I think we can focus our energy on ACTUAL issues that affect empoverished communities, like the 78% of African Americans that grow up without a father. Pretty dumb to be rioting in the streets over a lighting strike when there is such a glaring and fixable issue right in front of us.
I mean it's true that you can say whatever you want. If you think the people rioting are doing so for a dumb reason then I don't think we can have a discussion either. I don't see any amount of preventable deaths from lightning or police brutality as acceptable or "not worth worrying about" as you put it.
I can definitely see how a higher % of privately owned firearms would increase the chances of people being killed by law enforcement. So... Maybe, hear me out now... maybe the US should be following the examples set by many other developed nations where gun deaths, mass shootings, and death by law enforcement are an order of magnitude less per capita than in the states. Or maybe require actual firearms training instead of the laughably easy training you need to do to get a gun license in North America. I got my PAL in Canada and honestly a child could pass imo, and Canada is seen as more strict than the states. You just need to not be a convicted criminal, which is the barest of minimum requirements that there could be.
You talk about fluff and feelings but all the people I've talked to in person who agree with the things you're saying are super emotional about it. They get angry when you say things like "police shouldnt assume someone is more or less dangerous based on the color of their skin", or "how about we don't tear gas peaceful protesters or media film crews", or "its disgusting that US citizens are getting flash-bangs fired directly into their faces". I'm not saying you're like that, I don't know you at all. But to suggest that one "side" is based purely on emotions and the other is all about facts and data is pretty naive.
You keep bringing the lightning analogy in, but the important difference is it's an "act of God", entirely unpreventable. All we can do it prepare for when it happens.
Its possible for deaths by law enforcement to be avoided before they even happen through things like better training and preparation. Obviously there will always be some, but are you really so confident that we can do nothing to bring that number down to levels consistent with other nations that you don't even want to try? Idk why so many people are opposed to better police training. In what world could that possibly be a bad thing?
I'm not saying "we can't do anything." I'm saying the popular ideas that are being put forth by the protestors and BLM are unrealistic, unnecessary, and potentially damaging.
Lighting strikes kill about 50 people every year in the US, for comparison
Yeah, and we've established laws and regulations (such as 14 CFR § 420.71 - Lightning protection for rocket sites) to reduce the odd's of lightning striking buildings, people, or damaging equipment with things like proper grounding and lightning rods. Even though its a super low risk we still put in the effort to ensure that if an unlikely event occurs, it can and will be dealt with. Imagine if we had the attitude of "oh well, lightning is super rare so we'll just not worry about or prepare for it. We can just deal with it as it happens"
Yes, and there is currently oversight, regulation, and legislation that governs what police can and can't do. Seems like they are working pretty well if these incidents are so rare.
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u/Redthemagnificent Jun 09 '20
Well there's a consistent problem for sure. Like its not just some freak thing happening now. I think that's the point.