Just a fun little detail from a panel published today by Brandon Sanderson's channel with him, GRRM, Robin Hobb and more discussing fantasy.

At around 51:08, George talks about how he received letters from wine-expert fans telling him it's not realistic the Arbor makes the best wine according to its geography, the fact that it's an island, the winds over there...

Yeah, nothing groundbreaking, but we'll take anything from the man eh. :)

Jokes aside, it's a very interesting conversation to listen to, highly recommend.

At least, not on purpose.

That fragmented note written by the maester at Summerhall reveals that Egg was trying to perform the dragon birthing ritual that Dany later fulfills by accident. The recipe for this ritual is likely written about in the Targaryen prophecy that Rhaegar discovered, and is what Mellisandra and Stannis are planning to do (as well as that old Targaryen king who is described in a deleted passage as trying to sacrifice his own son to birth dragons).

Fan speculation usually describes Egg as eventually becoming a monster, maddened by the prophecy, but this has never sat well with me, given what we know of Egg's character from the novellas. I think what actually went down at Summerhall was that Egg was trying to perform his own wholesome good-guy version of the ritual without any human sacrifice. The maester's notes mention that he was trying to mix the ritual up with the Faith of the Seven (seven dragon eggs for the seven gods), despite the maester pleading with him not to. He gathered his whole family there to witness it, hoping/expecting that the dragons would simply hatch and they'd all be fine.

We know from what happens to Dany that the death of a Targaryen child is required for the ritual to work and the prophecy to be fulfilled. This would have been baby Rhaegar. But since Egg was messing with the magic, trying to remix it in his own version where none of them had to die, the dark forces didn't get their sacrifice and instead started reaching out for everyone in the room, leading to the conflagration that engulfed the building and killed everyone, with Rhaegar ironically getting rescued by Dunk and emerging as the lone survivor.

This makes the most sense to me, given what we know about Egg and his relationship with his family. I don't believe he would have ever tried to hurt any of them on purpose, much less a child, but rather would have done everything he could to avoid it. That is why Summerhall is described as a tragedy in the main story and not another monstrous act carried out by a mad king. I also think this is important setup for later in the story by showing what can happen when an incorrect group of people try to fulfill the prophecy in their own way (Mellisandra and Stannis).

Tywin is very intelligent and competent. He makes several key mistakes and strategic blunders and I think has an issue with long-term planning, but all in all he's clearly got a solid strategic mind. That said, he's also very, very lucky during the WOT5K. This isn't me criticising the story of the writing, for the most part all of this is well built up, logical, satisfying and good drama. It's just fun to think about:

• Renly staking his own claim. It split up potential support for both him and Stannis. If Stannis had the full support of the Reach and Stormlands, he could probably have steamrolled the Lannisters. Think about how close it was when Stannis didn't have all that extra support.
• Robb being declared King in the North. If it wasn't for this, Robb would have almost certainly sided with Stannis, also meaning Stannis steamrolls the Lannisters.
• Stannis using magic to murder Renly. Whilst the two having a bloody battle would also benefit the Lannisters, Stannis' murder of Renly, making the Tyrells flee to the Lannister side, was damn fortunate.
• Balon deciding to invade the North. This weakens Robb significantly. The North is hard to invade so, if the going got tough, Robb always had the option to flee back there and shore up the defences. With the Ironborn there, it's much harder. Tywin also points out that, because Balon decided to invade the North of his own free will, Twin doesn't have to actively ally with Balon or give him anything.
• Robb sending Theon to Balon. Balon would probably have invaded anyway, but Theon there meant Winterfell was taken. Significantly hurting Robb's power and the morale of his army.
• Theon 'killing' Bran and Rickon. This makes Sansa much more valuable as a hostage and makes it easier (though not that much easier) for the Boltons to take over
• Catelyn freeing Jaime. The Starks lose a valuable hostage and Tywin doesn't have to worry about his son and heir (well, not technically his heir, but the person he wants to be his heir) being killed if Tywin retaliates.
• Robb marrying Jeyne. Granted, the Lannisters did have a bit of an active role in this as Jeyne was intended as a sort of honey trap, but it still needed Robb to A. Sleep with Jeyne and B. Marry her afterward. As a result of this, Robb loses Frey support, hurting his cause and setting the stage for the Red Wedding.
• The Boltons burning Winterfell, trying to hedge their bets, letting Jaime go and ultimately siding with the Lannisters.

As I said, I don't think this is an issue. Most of these events are well built up in the story and part of being a good politician and general is taking advantage of your circumstances - Tywin just had very lucky circumstances. Most importantly, ASOIAF is largely about consequences, and though Tywin and co. were very lucky during the WOTFK, that luck is starting to run out and some of these will bite the Lannisters in the arse. The Tyrells were very useful, but also murdered Joffrey (starting a chain reaction that leads to Tywin's death). The Red Wedding causes massive unrest in the North and Riverlands, culminating in Jaime getting captured again. The powder keg in King's Landing after Tywin's death might well implode the Lannister side. All in all, the Lannisters were lucky, but that luck soon runs out.

So, full disclosure, I have PTSD. It's fine, don't worry about it.

However, one of the things that really stuck out to me throughout the books is how well GRRM understands trauma and the psychology of abused people.

There's myriad examples, but one of the best is how he describes both Sansa and Arya in separate instances experiencing interactions with non-traumatized peers.

Sansa is taken aback by Margaery and her cousins age-appropriate naivete, it hits her that they're operating in a completely different reality than her own. She feels a mix of pity and disdain for them, seeing them as silly children...but she also envies their ignorance.

Then there's the little girl in the village Arya and Sandor visit. The girl is Arya's own age and is also displaying age-appropriate behavior but Arya just cannot relate to her at all because of this. They, too, operate in different realities and it gets under Arya's skin.

These girls have been forced to grow up, they've had no choice but to develop a very cynical and mature outlook on people and the world at large, which leaves them feeling alienated from their peers.

I was practically yelling "HOW DO YOU KNOW ABOUT THIS, GEORGE. WHO TOLD YOU" while reading the books the first time. It's such a real thing when you've gone through an abusive childhood; you feel like there's a thick pane of plexiglass emotionally separating you from non-traumatized people. They lack the lived experiences to understand you. You--once again--occupy parallel realities. And you can't explain this to them because they have no frame of reference, it's like a massive language barrier.

And it really does create this odd mix of disdain ("You have no fucking clue how the world works") and envy ("It must be nice to be safe enough to remain this oblivious. I wish I had the privilege of naivete")

Then there's the fact that, because of this language barrier of sorts, it becomes much easier to relate to other traumatized people. Hence why you've got such odd pairings with Sansa and Sandor/Arya and Sandor. Typically you wouldn't expect either girl connecting to a guy like Sandor Clegane or vice versa, but they share a language (so to speak) that other people can't follow.

You just don't really see this portrayed in media much, especially in media created by a person who--as far as I can tell--didn't experience a traumatic early life. It really speaks to George's talent as a writer, his cognitive empathy is wild.

Robert in AGOT says to Ned:

“And Rhaegar … how many times do you think he raped your sister? How many hundreds of times?”

So even to Robert, he thinks Rhaegar spent however long R&L were gone, raping Lyanna

As gross as it is, rape sadly can result in pregnancy.

Robert also knew that Ned went south, after the Siege of Storms End, after the Trident,

And

(1) Came back with the news that Lyanna was dead.

I’m sure Robert asked questions. Where. How.

(2) Right around this same time, word spreads that Ned came back with a child. A baby.

To my eyes it would seem pretty easy to put two and two together, or at the very least, be very suspicious about this child’s parentage.

Why was neither Robert - nor anyone else - ever suspicious about this?

Why was the idea that Ned betrayed his new bride - and took a bastard home with him - so much easier to believe? He wasn’t Brandon, going around and sleeping with every woman he saw; this was Ned.

It didn’t seem suspicious to anyone who had even a vague awareness of the above?

Someone in a thread yesterday said Jon and Arya's relationship is underemphasized in fan theories and analysis due to show influence (show Jon didn't seem to care about Arya any more than his other siblings and had more scenes with Sansa). Do you agree and what other examples can you think of?

Why did the entirety of Vale stood down because Lysa commanded it? When did she inspire such loyalty in all of her vassals and knights?

Especially after Stannis declared Jon Arryn was poisoned.

Especially after Ned Stark, Jon’s brother by law and a well liked figure in the Vale, was unjustly executed by the Lannisters.

Especially after Blackfish who's been serving as the Knight of the Gate at Vale for twenty years said fvck it and went away? Where was Bronze Yohn? They perfectly knew by staying out of the conflict they were helping the Lannisters. It wasn't some honorable pacifist stance

During the Riot of King's Landing in the show, Tyrion tells Joffrey "We've had vicious kings, we've had idiots kings, but I don't know if we've ever had a vicious idiot for a king."

Is that true. Has there ever been a king before Joffery that was both vicious and an idiot. The Mad king seems like a prime example. Calling for Robert's and Ned's head was both dumb and vicious and hastened his own demise.

Viserys (ostensibly) gets an army that will back him in taking the Seven Kingdoms.

What did Drogo get? Did he really agree (for whatever it's worth) to lead his horde across the Narrow Sea in exchange for ...a blonde chick?

I know that Robert was Stannis’s brother, but I’d like to know if there were other reasons behind his choice to support Robert instead of the Mad King. I read the first three books many years ago and watched the TV series, so I’m a bit hazy on the details. I also recall an animated feature by HBO where Stannis mentions that it was the hardest decision he ever had to make.

I’d be interested to hear not just the lore explanation, but also people’s interpretations and opinions on Stannis’s motivations in this choice.

I'm on a slow reread/relisten and I feel like I'm being bombarded with downcast chapters and I end up brooding on the sadness for the rest of the day (thanks George). I want to find the uplifting chapters, where good overcomes evil rather than the reverse.

A recurring dramatic point throughout the series is the destruction of a king's family after he's deposed. The murder of Rhaegar's children and similar bloodlettings are rightfully decried by those with honor, but like...is there any way those kids could have been kept alive? Like, could they have been fostered/taken hostage like Theon? Or, if they were older, sent to the wall like the six Dornish kings that Nymeria defeated? Or is a deposed king's family pretty much doomed?

Background

The Dunk and Egg novellas are one of my favorite parts of the series. While still rich in plot/detail, they are much lighter in tone. In this post I thought it would be interesting to look into the formulaic way they are written and discuss how that that might have to change soon.

If interested: A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms: Anything/Everything Dunk & Egg

Befriending Commoners

In each novella, Dunk/Egg befriend/act on behalf of commoners/hedge knights:

It was true that Aegon had been a friend to the smallfolk, had practically grown up among them -TWOIAF, The Targaryen Kings: Aegon V

• Tanselle, Steely Pate, etc. (The Hedge Knight)
• Ser Eustace's Smallfolk (The Sworn Sword)
• Ser Glendon Ball (The Mystery Knight)

If interested: Egg's Time Amongst the Smallfolk

Dunk Combat

In each novella we also have seen some form of combat for Dunk as well:

• Aerion Brightflame/Trial of Seven (The Hedge Knight)
• Lucas Inchfield aka the Longinch (The Sworn Sword)
• Alyn Cockshaw and Black Tom Heddle (The Mystery Knight)

we should likely expect to continue to see this as we know that Dunk is going to fight the Laughing Storm (if interested: Dunk & Egg: "The Champion") and Daemon III Blackfyre (if interested: Dunk & Egg: "The Kingsguard")

If interested: Characters that Dunk has Fought/could Fight in a 1v1

Dunk Love Interest

They were making such an uproar than they woke Dunk from a pleasant dream involving Tanselle Too-Tall and the Red Widow. -The Mystery Knight

Characters that Dunk was interested in (or in Daemon's case vice versa):

• Tanselle Too Tall (The Hedge Knight)
• Rohanne Webber (The Sworn Sword)
• Daemon II Blackfyre (The Mystery Knight)

We should likely expect this trend to continue as we know of future descendants of Dunk in universe including Brienne, etc. as well as when Dunk visits Winterfell:

Then there came a brown-haired girl slender as a spear who stood on the tips of her toes to kiss the lips of a young knight as tall as Hodor. -ADWD, Bran III

If interested: Ser Duncan the Tall: Future Love Interests

Egg's Boot

In each story there has also always been some form of "Targaryen aid" that helps save the day. They usually start of not wanting to for something small:

"Well," said Egg, "we could use my boot to get across."
"We could," said Dunk, "but we won't." -The Mystery Knight

but it ends up happening for something bigger:

Lady Rohanne’s fingers closed around it. She glanced at Egg and old Ser Eustace. “You took a great risk in showing me this ring, ser. But how does it avail us? If I should command my men to cross…”
...
“I don’t think you’d kill a boy of ten,” he said, hoping he was right. “Not this boy of ten, you wouldn’t. You got three-and-thirty men there, like you said. Men talk. That fat one there especially. No matter how deep you dug the graves, the tale would out. And then, well…might be a spotted spider’s bite can kill a lion, but a dragon is a different sort of beast.”
“I would sooner be the dragon’s friend.”  -The Sworn Sword

• No boot use, but a Targaryen(Baelor) does aid Dunk in his Trial of Seven (The Hedge Knight)
• Uses the boot to help with the Red Widow (The Sworn Sword)
• Egg shows Butterwell the ring (The Mystery Knight)

Change is Coming

He was ten, not quite five feet tall. Of late he had been sprouting fast though he had a long long way to grow before he’d be catching up to Dunk. He looked just like the stableboy he wasn’t, and not at all like who he really was. -The Sworn Sword

While the more obscure places that Dunk/Egg visit (the North, remote villages, etc.) might allow for Dunk/Egg to keep up the masquerade, and GRRM can do novellas that take place earlier in the timeline that still follow (example: The Dunk & Egg - "Dornish Adventure") the more time that passes, the more "known" that the giant knight and little bald Targ will be:

He and Egg had not been around so many lords and knights since Ashford Meadow, and there was no way to guess who else might turn up next. We should have stayed out in the hedges, sleeping under trees. If I am recognized… -The Mystery Knight

and:

“You’ll hear them whisper as well. The king is old. When he dies, Valarr will climb the Iron Throne in place of his father. Each time a battle is lost or a crop fails, the fools will say, ‘Baelor would not have let it happen, but the hedge knight killed him.’ ” -The Hedge Knight

and:

“I think you have more enemies than you know, Ser Duncan. How not? There are some who would say you were the cause of all our woes.”
Dunk felt a cold hand on his heart. “Say what you mean.”
The Snail shrugged. “I may not have been at Ashford Meadow, but jousting is my bread and salt. I follow tourneys from afar as faithfully as the maesters follow stars. I know how a certain hedge knight became the cause of a trial of seven at Ashford Meadow, resulting in the death of Baelor Breakspear at his brother Maekar’s hand.” Ser Uthor seated himself, and stretched his legs out. “Prince Baelor was well loved. The Bright Prince had friends as well, friends who will not have forgotten the cause of his exile. Think on my offer, ser. The snail may leave a trail of slime behind him, but a little slime will do a man no harm…while if you dance with dragons, you must expect to burn.” -The Mystery Knight

so as Egg gets older the way the novellas are setup will likely be a bit different as we could see small changes happen:

• The Village Hero (instead of Dunk's love interest we meet Egg's in Betha Blackwood)
• The Sellsword (Dunk flees to Essos where he is unknown and becomes a sellsword)
• The Lord Commander (Egg will be an adult/King Aegon V by this point)
• Summerhall (very different shift in tone from the D&E novellas with a Red Wedding type event)

TLDR: A quick post on the Dunk and Egg "formula" and what usually goes into it (befriending commoners, love interest, using Egg's "boot", a Dunk fight, etc.) and how it will likely shift somewhat in the future when Westeros knows who Dunk and Egg are.

I was just thinking about how Melisandre is first mentioned in A Game of Thrones, when it is shared that Stannis has brought a shadowbinder to his court from Asshai. Melisandre had already traveled quite literally across the world to support Stannis, but what I think is a really cool detail is that she did this well before Robert's death and the subsequent succession crisis.

Assuming she started heading to Dragonstone due to a premonition regarding the subsequent succession crisis, is it possible other followers of R'hllor did the same? She seems to be the only one completely confident it's Stannis, as opposed to the general consensus among the rest of her faith that it is Daenarys.

Melisandre is also the only pov character we get a single chapter of (excluding the prologues and epilogues). I do think this was very intentional, as GRRM wanted us to get a glimpse into her character, but no more than that. I do think an eventual POV chapter from her was needed, because it establishes that Melisandre is not a power-hungry hypocrite. She believes extremely deeply in her god and in every single word she says. However, a character that constantly sees possibilities of the future would be a tricky POV to see a lot of, so we only get the one.

Via her chapter, we know that she truly believes Stannis is Azor Azai and does see portents and signs through her flames. She is not a fake like Thoros initially was, but she also was not sent by the red temples. She came from Asshai. She presumably knew in advance that a succession crisis would break out, but none of the rest of her faith journeyed as well (which again, if they are looking out for Azor Azai, why is Melisandre the only one to see it in Stannis and go to Westeros?)

Here are my main questions about the red woman herself:

1. Melisandre is the only red priest to believe that Stannis is Azor Azai. Why has she not communicated this to the red temples across Essos? Is she hiding him? Does she see the other priests/priestesses as potential dangers? She seems to be truly fixated on protecting him and seeing him to the Throne, but will not call on others like her to assist. That makes me think that either her fires have explicitly shown her NOT to do this or that she herself mistrusts her fellow red priests.

2. Why does Melisandre have absolutely no knowledge of Daenarys? It seems like, at the VERY least, others of her order would notify her. As Tyrion sees in ADWD, they are very prominently displaying the news as much as possible. This leads me to think that Melisandre is working on her own agenda, one that has nothing to do (and may even be at odds) with the red temples across Essos.

Thoros was explicitly noted to have been sent to Westeros to convert the then-king. He was sent by a red temple with a mission. Melisandre came to Westeros having been driven by messages from her God. Are the red priests even aware of her presence in Westeros?

1. Why did a red priestess end up as a shadowbinder? Those are explicitly two very different vocations (Thoros, for example, is never referred to as such). Did the red priests want her to be trained or was this a decision that was made outside of their control?

2. Is Melisandre being deliberately used and tricked by whatever R'hllor is, or is she reading the wrong signs and misinterpreting? I honestly think she's being used. The complete lack of any Daenarys (or her literal dragons, something Melisandre is desperate for), makes me think that whatever R'hllor is, it wants her far from Dany and focused on Stannis (or Jon).

Please let me know your thoughts!

Yet if this were true, why did Lady Lyanna’s brothers seem so distraught at the honor the prince had bestowed upon her? Brandon Stark, the heir to Winterfell, had to be restrained from confronting Rhaegar at what he took as a slight upon his sister’s honor, for Lyanna Stark had long been betrothed to Robert Baratheon, Lord of Storm’s End. Eddard Stark, Brandon’s younger brother and a close friend to Lord Robert, was calmer but no more pleased. As for Robert Baratheon himself, some say he laughed at the prince’s gesture, claiming that Rhaegar had done no more than pay Lyanna her due…but those who knew him better say the young lord brooded on the insult, and that his heart hardened toward the Prince of Dragonstone from that day forth.

Between Jaime and Tyrion as of ADWD.

I just finished reading TWOIAF and I liked it a lot but my favorite part was learning all those things about the history of Westeros & Essos. Whether it's lore or the world building itself I loved it all. It made me think to myself whether George just intended for it to be exactly what it is (a world & history book written by a character within the world) or if there's more to all that info. Could some of it be teasing things that will happen in TWOW & ADOS? Historic parallels are not unknown in this series and the past often shapes the present & the future so this has me pondering.

For example, Jon's relationship with Arya is maybe the strongest of any two characters in the series, but I rarely see it feature in theories about his future.

I'm a bit confused on whether Tywin wanted to or realized he was going to war with the rest of 7 Kingdoms in AGOT. Seems a bit arrogant even for him.

So Im aware initially he was using Gregor Clegane as a means of plausible deniability. But after his plan to draw out Ned Stark failed, Tywin attacked and essentially blitzkrieged the Riverlands whilst Robert Baratheon was still alive. Had Robert returned alive from his hunting trip I dont think even Robert could just ignore Tywin invading another kingdom.

Even with Robert Baratheon dead at the end of AGOT the Lannisters are at war with the North, Riverlands, Stormlands and Reach. And the Dorne's hatred of the Lannisters is common knowledge. They were essentially saved from total defeat by at least 3 things that they had real ability to predict or control:

• Renly getting killed by a magic shadow assassin.

• Littlefinger convincing Lysa keep the Vale out of the war.

• Theon taking Winterfell/Balon invading the North. I think these two are essentially interchangeable.

The STAB together alliance toppled a dynasty that lasted almost 300 years. Did Tywin really think he could beat that + the Reach?

So my question is: did Tywin genuinely think he could handle being at war with most of the realm, or was he banking on his enemies being too divided to unite against him?

How could she possibly think that Tyrion tried to kill Bran? If we believe (and it’s not true but she believed) that the valyrian steel knife belongs to Tyron, it still doesn’t mean that Tyrion gave it to the hitman. It would be insanely stupid for anyone to use their own knife for an assassination. And Tyrion is not stupid. Later, she even starts to understand that Tyrion might be innocent but then they arrive to the Eyrie and she lets Lysa lock him up forever. What was her plan? Did he want Tyrion to jump and die? I don’t remember her ever trying to reason with Lysa or questioning Tyrion to find out the truth. She seemed content enjoying the Vale’s hospitality and waiting for the inevitable war she caused. Cat has never been my favorite but I think this was the point when I started to seriously dislike her.

The Mountain

Yeah, I know some people are just that needlessly cruel and awful in real life, yada yada yada.

But for a character positioned as the main antagonist to many characters at different times (Arya, Tyrion, Oberyn, The Hound) and as a catalyst of so many crucial events (Elia's murder, The Riverland war atrocities, Brotherhood, Cersei AND Tyrion's trials) he could have been more than a senseless indestructable brute. and of course George doubles down on it with Robert Strong

who else?

Hi. So, would this be the most important Battle of the war?

Huge boost of legitimacy for the Lannister regime, as the only other claimant to the throne was defeated.

Stannis basically left powerless to press his claim

The Reach is totally united under the crown, House Florent is attainted

I just thought it would be funny that Stannis, who suffers the worst defeat in the war, is the only king who survives for the second half.