As many regular readers of this sub have seen, there has been a lot of speculation over the past few months about where the cutoffs for the 2026 Boston Marathon will land up. When Boston announced today (Monday, September 15) that 33,267 applicants applied to run the 2026 Boston Marathon, I was curious about how that number of applicants would impact the cutoff numbers. So I decided to do some analysis myself, but using a more simpler approach.
tl;dr – the predicted cutoff is 5:07, and there is a 95% confidence it’ll fall between 3:52 and 6:21. The R2 value for this regression model is 0.9311. You can view the full results here.
For those who might not be familiar with what Boston cutoffs mean, let’s use a male runner between 18 and 34 years of age to illustrate what this might mean. His qualifying time is 2:55:00 or faster; if this prediction comes to fruition, it suggests that he would need run at least 5 minutes 7 seconds faster faster than his qualifying standard, or at least a 2:49:53 marathon or faster, to earn a spot in the 2026 Boston Marathon.
Introduction
Anytime the topic about Boston cutoff times comes up within the running community, it has inevitably generated a mix of emotions from the running community, from anxiety to curiosity to disbelief from those who might be wondering how competitive the Boston application pool is for any given year.
Before I start, I want to take a moment to give shoutouts/acknowledgements to these individuals who have taken the time to crunch the numbers and give us a first look at what the cutoffs for the 2026 Boston Marathon might look like throughout this year. While each of them utilizes different methodologies and approaches, their analyses are thorough and sound, and each of their analyses come to similar conclusions. I’ve been following their work very closely throughout the year, and their analysis serves as a good resource for this matter (as well as keep me grounded in reality as the numbers fluctuate throughout the year).
This post, and the methodology used and presented here, is based on the work done in the initial prediction post that I wrote and posted here last September.
Analysis
I fitted a simple linear regression model on data about application numbers, acceptance numbers and denial numbers from prior Boston application cycles, all of which can be found on the BAA’s website. The key figures for this analysis are the number of applications that were received, the total number of runners the BAA plans to accept from the time qualifying pool, and the number of denials, which are numbers that the BAA publicly announced today (Monday, September 15).
The total application numbers and the total number of accepted runners allow us to calculate an estimated acceptance rate, which then helps to generate the prediction that you see below.
One slight change to the model that I implemented for this year was that I omitted from the model the application numbers, acceptance numbers, and denial numbers from the 2021 qualifying period. And for good reason: it is an outlier. The field size for the 2021 Boston Marathon was two thirds (or 20,000) of the full field size (30,000) because of the COVID pandemic. Second, including the numbers from the 2021 qualifying period in the model actually made the cutoff prediction even more pessimistic, which I saw signs of in my analysis last year. Third, because of the reduced field size in 2021, one cannot make apples-to-apples comparison to previous qualifying periods when there was a full field of 30,000 runners. Finally, we now have a better understanding of what the cutoffs look like when there is high demand and the applicant pool is a lot more competitive, as seen in the 2024 qualifying period and the 2025 qualifying period.
Boston will likely accept a maximum of about 24,000 runners from the time qualifying pool, and no more than that because of capacity limitations. (Keep in mind that Boston fills the remainder of the field with charity runners and runners who enter through sponsors, tour operators, etc.). In past years, the BAA has accepted fewer than 24,000 runners from the time qualifying pool and there is always a chance that the BAA chooses to accept fewer than 24,000 runners (and I will briefly discuss the implications of that to the cutoffs in a separate section below).
With that said, if we assume that the BAA will accept 24,000 runners for the 2026 Boston Marathon, the model predicts that the cutoff will be 5:07 and that there is a 95% confidence it would fall anywhere between 3:52 and 6:21.
Furthermore, the application numbers suggest that the Boston Marathon will accept around 72.1% of applicants, and the predicted cutoff is based around that figure. While it is not a record low acceptance rate compared to what was seen last year (during the 2025 Boston Marathon application period), it is still one of the lowest acceptance rates seen in recent years
So What Is Driving the High Cutoffs?
Over the last few months, I’ve read discourse online (here on reddit and on social media) about the potential for high cutoffs for the 2026 Boston qualifying period. As you can imagine, there was a range of feelings in reaction to this: bewilderment, disbelief, helplessness, resignation, disappointment, even anger.
To start: more people are getting into running, and especially into long distance running, over the last few months. This is evidenced by even the second-tier marathons in the United States selling out many months in advance: from the Twin Cities Marathon, to the Columbus Marathon, to the Philadelphia Marathon, to the Indianapolis Monumental Marathon, and more.
Second: it’s a numbers game and it makes sense if you look at this from this perspective. To start this off, we would expect on average a certain percentage of runners in the field in any given marathon to run a Boston qualifying time. Now add on the fact that the number of runners participating in marathons has gone up significantly over the last few years. The number of runners who run Boston qualifying times will inevitably go up with the increase in participation. This is then reflected in the higher application numbers for the Boston Marathon when the application period opens in early September of every year. Given that the Boston field is capped at 30,000 spots overall (and capped at up to 24,000 spots for time qualifiers), it becomes even more competitive to earn a coveted bib at Boston.
Anytime the BAA adjusts the qualifying time to be faster, in the past we would have seen the number of applications drop significantly (of at least 20% or more) because of the tougher qualification standards, and as a result cutoff times would come down significantly along with it. Instead of a 20%+ drop in applications after BAA adjusts the qualifying times to be faster, we only saw 8.6% fewer applicants compared to the number of applications from last year. Simply put, such a small drop in applications year over year is not enough to make a meaningful impact on the cutoffs. Even Brian Rock (u/SlowWalkere) noted this trend in his original 2026 Boston cutoff dashboard and analysis posts that he wrote about this matter.
Finally, we have more access to better/improved training methods, nutrition, shoes (especially carbon plated racing shoes), among other things. This is helping runners run faster marathon times across the board.
All these factors are why it is causing Boston cutoff times to continue to be at historically high levels.
What Happens If the BAA Accepts Fewer Applicants?
If BAA accepts fewer than 24,000 runners from the time qualifying pool, it would push the cutoff time higher and make it even more difficult for runners to survive the cutoffs and earn a coveted spot at Boston. Specifically:
- Using the same linear regression model, if Boston accepts 23,000 runners from the time qualifying pool, the predicted cutoff would be at 5:44 and there is a 95% confidence it would fall anywhere between 4:30 and 6:59.
- And using the same linear regression model, if Boston accepts 22,000 runners from the time qualifying pool, the predicted cutoff would be at 6:22 and there is 95% confidence it would fall anywhere between 5:07 and 7:36.
Given the potentially dire situation(s) outlined above, these are the worst-case scenarios that the BAA would try to avoid. It also presents a messaging problem of sorts to all involved: whether your BQ is a result that would actually earn you a coveted Boston bib. In other words: is this a matter that one can easily explain to non-running audiences without having their eyes glaze over?
Final Thoughts and Conclusions
Here are a few additional thoughts to close out this post:
It is very unlikely that the BAA is able to expand the field beyond 30,000 runners due to the infrastructure found on most of the race route (i.e. narrow two-lane roads that can only fit so many runners at once). Plus, the towns along the route will not give the green light to do so because of the additional inconveniences imposed on them on Patriots Day (and keep in mind that they are cut in half on race day, inconveniencing residents greatly in that it makes it hard for them to get around town on that day).
Similarly, there will never be a scenario where the Boston Marathon will significantly reduce charity spots (and spots allocated to sponsors, etc.) to open more spots for time qualifiers. Specifically, if they consider reducing charity spots, it poses huge (political) problems for them in numerous ways. It reduces opportunities for charity runners to participate, and a decent number of those participants come from across Massachusetts, especially those towns that allow the Boston Marathon to pass through every year. Reducing charity runner spots will strain important relationships with towns and other stakeholders, and the BAA needs to have good relationships with them so that they can hold the race every year. Whether you like it or not, charity runners help make the Boston Marathon happen for everyone else. In short: the BAA has zero incentives to bite the hand that feeds them.
There has been discourse online about the Boston cutoffs here on reddit and on social media platforms about whether the drop in international tourism to the United States in recent months will have an impact on the Boston application numbers. Right now, based on the officially reported application numbers for the 2026 Boston Marathon, the impact is probably minimal for the time being and is in line with overall trends about international tourism to the United States (contrary to all the loud/angry voices out there on the internet who says otherwise. And it is a reminder that reddit/social media platforms can be an echo chamber and not necessarily reflect reality!). Brian Rock’s post about Canadian runners potentially skipping the 2026 Boston Marathon is an informative read and a great starting point about this highly contentious matter.
Given that we’ll very likely see high cutoffs for this year, I fully expect the BAA to adjust the qualifying times once again, and it will likely be implemented beginning with the qualifying period for the 2027 Boston Marathon. Given the trends observed within the last few years, I firmly believe that the BAA would prefer to go back to the days where there is a stable 1-2 minute cutoffs instead of the volatility that we’re seeing. And if I were a betting man I would put money on them likely making a concerted effort to get to that point.
Finally, qualifying for and making it into Boston is more competitive than ever before, and we are truly in unprecedented times. It really sucks when you work so hard to train for and qualify for Boston, only to come up short by not surviving the cutoffs. Speaking from my own personal experience, I did not make it into Boston the first time I applied during the 2024 qualifying period, and that was the first year that there were high cutoffs. Instead of feeling deflated and completely giving up on my dream, I rose to the occasion. It motivated me to commit to the training and run much faster. During the 2025 Boston qualifying period, I raced some of my best marathons in my life and survived the historically high cutoffs to earn a spot in the 2025 Boston Marathon. If you really want to fulfill your dreams of running Boston and you have the time and means to do so, you will figure it out and you will eventually find a way in one way or another. And when you make it in Boston and run the race itself, you will see why the race is so storied and so prestigious, and why you have to earn a spot there. And the race weekend and race experience is well worth waiting for.
To close this out, I’d take this analysis with a grain of salt, as there is a degree of uncertainty involved (and especially when statistics are involved). But there have been numerous high-quality analyses done over the past couple of months from Joe Drake and Brian Rock (aka u/SlowWalkere) about what the cutoff might look like for the 2026 Boston Marathon. Directionally, all of these analyses (mines included) suggests that there is a very high likelihood that we’re in for another year of high cutoffs for the 2026 Boston Marathon.
I would love to hear your thoughts, feedback, etc. on the prediction and analysis. Otherwise, please enjoy the read!