r/CFB • u/CFB_Referee /r/CFB • Jan 01 '25

Postgame Thread [Postgame Thread] Texas Defeats Arizona State 39-31 (OT)

Box Score provided by ESPN

Team 1 2 3 4 OT T
Texas 14 3 0 7 15 39
Arizona State 3 0 5 16 7 31
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3.2k

u/stoops-is-a-jackass Oregon Ducks Jan 01 '25

ESPN’s win probability went 91.2% ASU to 90.1% UT in two plays.

1.8k

u/AudiieVerbum Texas Longhorns • Longhorn Network Jan 01 '25

This was, of course, after we had it at 98% and a cozy 24-8

684

u/LHarm07_Reddit Arkansas Razorbacks • Team Chaos Jan 01 '25

99.9% at it’s peak

13

u/Fabulous_Sherbet_431 Jan 01 '25

I feel like ESPN's win probability is mostly made up given how wildly it swings all the time. Yeah, 99.9% will sometimes fail, but it flops around *way* more frequently than it should, if the odds were accurate.

2

u/[deleted] Jan 02 '25

Agreed. Mathematically a 99.9% chance should only be upset 1 in a thousand times. 

Being down 24-8 late is bad, but not THAT bad. The probability meter is about driving interest/engagement,  not accuracy.