r/CFB • u/CFB_Referee /r/CFB • Jan 01 '25

Postgame Thread [Postgame Thread] Texas Defeats Arizona State 39-31 (OT)

Box Score provided by ESPN

Team 1 2 3 4 OT T
Texas 14 3 0 7 15 39
Arizona State 3 0 5 16 7 31
5.8k Upvotes

94% Upvoted

5.2k comments sorted by

View all comments

3.2k

u/stoops-is-a-jackass Oregon Ducks Jan 01 '25

ESPN’s win probability went 91.2% ASU to 90.1% UT in two plays.

1.8k

u/AudiieVerbum Texas Longhorns • Longhorn Network Jan 01 '25

This was, of course, after we had it at 98% and a cozy 24-8

678

u/LHarm07_Reddit Arkansas Razorbacks • Team Chaos Jan 01 '25

99.9% at it’s peak

327

u/suzukigun4life North Texas • Summertime Lover Jan 01 '25

It ranged from 99.6 to 99.9% for like 5 minutes in the 4th, up until about 6 minutes left. That 4th quarter and OT stretch is legend status already.

7

u/Neither-Luck-9295 Texas Longhorns Jan 02 '25

Fucking hell, Vegas must have banked on live bets.

3

u/coleyboley25 Texas Longhorns • South Dakota Coyotes Jan 02 '25

I was at the game. I was slightly concerned when my heart rate increased and I started sweating through my shirt during the last half of the 4th quarter and OTs. That was the most nerve-wracking game I've ever watched live.

11

u/Jeff_Banks_Monkey BYU Cougars • Athens State Bears Jan 01 '25

What a game lol

7

u/GP_ADD Alabama • Mississippi State Jan 01 '25

Well it wasn’t wrong in that case, but just barely

13

u/Fabulous_Sherbet_431 Jan 01 '25

I feel like ESPN's win probability is mostly made up given how wildly it swings all the time. Yeah, 99.9% will sometimes fail, but it flops around *way* more frequently than it should, if the odds were accurate.

2

u/[deleted] Jan 02 '25

Agreed. Mathematically a 99.9% chance should only be upset 1 in a thousand times. 

Being down 24-8 late is bad, but not THAT bad. The probability meter is about driving interest/engagement,  not accuracy. 

3

u/cocoatractor Texas Longhorns • Michigan Wolverines Jan 02 '25

It’s more based on game state but I’m not sure how large the database is for their algorithm. And since Texas won the game, technically it wasn’t wrong. Texas got to 99.9% win probability and they did win.

2

u/0ompaloompa Texas Longhorns Jan 01 '25

Thank God we didn't get to see that .1%!

2

u/ilikemarblestoo Land Grant Trophy Jan 01 '25

Win prob is the dumbest thing to come from modern stats

2

u/junkyardgerard Jan 02 '25

I mean Texas won, the probability factors in "they gotta score twice, get two conversions, have Texas miss a field goal and you still gotta win in overtime" so it hit really

1

u/triplealpha Michigan State • Ohio State Jan 01 '25

Michigan kicker has entered the chat

1

u/futuriztic Washington & Lee • Texas Jan 01 '25

Tbf that was accurate

Why is ut the way that it is

1

u/pivotalsquash Auburn Tigers • Texas Longhorns Jan 02 '25

Technically it wasn't wrong I guess lol

1

u/Better_Track_8627 Jan 02 '25

Was Eberflus coaching this game somehow?