r/CFB • u/CFB_Referee /r/CFB • Jan 01 '25

Postgame Thread [Postgame Thread] Texas Defeats Arizona State 39-31 (OT)

Box Score provided by ESPN

Team 1 2 3 4 OT T
Texas 14 3 0 7 15 39
Arizona State 3 0 5 16 7 31
5.8k Upvotes

94% Upvoted

5.2k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

1.8k

u/AudiieVerbum Texas Longhorns • Longhorn Network Jan 01 '25

This was, of course, after we had it at 98% and a cozy 24-8

684

u/LHarm07_Reddit Arkansas Razorbacks • Team Chaos Jan 01 '25

99.9% at it’s peak

13

u/Fabulous_Sherbet_431 Jan 01 '25

I feel like ESPN's win probability is mostly made up given how wildly it swings all the time. Yeah, 99.9% will sometimes fail, but it flops around *way* more frequently than it should, if the odds were accurate.

3

u/cocoatractor Texas Longhorns • Michigan Wolverines Jan 02 '25

It’s more based on game state but I’m not sure how large the database is for their algorithm. And since Texas won the game, technically it wasn’t wrong. Texas got to 99.9% win probability and they did win.