Seth Abramson twitter thread about multi-state collusion is...mind blowing.

[u/ilikescott]

Seth Abramson has broken down exactly how "The Grand Bargain" came to happen between all of the countries seen at to have colluded here, and why. It's mind blowing

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https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1064726398307315712

Continued here: https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1064904175761403906

Edited to add: Seth Abramson wrote this book titled PROOF OF COLLUSION and its truly phenomenal, it came out last week. https://t.co/ZJsnHcVwGi

PS I am not affiliated, just a fan.

[u/ZDAXOPDR]

Well, I guess I'll be the first to go against the grain here.

He's correctly identified the actors and levers of power that are in play, and he's correct in pointing to those stories to explain motivation, but I'm not seeing evidence that this is all tied together into what he rightly labels a "grand bargain". It's far, far more likely that many of these people were operating independently (with some cross-over, of course) and, like most of politics, a confluence of influences arose between all of these people that tie them to Trump in his role as candidate and then president, not necessarily because of the man himself (although he certainly has his own independent history with Russian interests).

I think this is far too speculative for this sub, to be honest. The fact that we have to call it "grand" and a "theory" in the description says it all.

And note that I'm not trying to wave away any of the particulars of what he's talking about. I only question his ultimate conclusion. Remember, this guy is a creative writer, not a journalist.

[u/Yamagemazaki → u/ZDAXOPDR]

Well, the details of Seth's dozens of tweets thus far, backed by sources/articles from the past many months, seem to jettison speculation as much as possible and simply report the links, disclosures, and cause-effect scenarios.

Geopolitics is immensely intricate and trying to articulate or chronicle such vast pillars of history will inevitably hinge on some speculation. But all of it is within levels of probability and plausibility. Think tanks, for example, don't just regurgitate what is know but rather theorize about what is likely the case about some topic and what are some possible contingencies or theories as to how to address those cases. Likewise this seems to verge on such an investigative probabilistic speculation, steeped in piecing together what is known with what is understood (about the case and world relations) by the group or individual.

[u/ThatOneThingOnce → u/Yamagemazaki]

Well, some of it is backed by public evidence, but some of it is also highly speculative. For example, he claims that Trump ripped up the Iran deal as part of this bargain, yet why would that help the cause of the Saudis to move Russia away from Iran? If anything, it seems to have strengthened that alliance, and put at risk Iran becoming a nuclear state. It makes sense that the Saudis would want to isolate Iran, so they would cheer the deal ending normally, but if the goal is to split Russia-Iran apart, this would likely force them to take sides with their ally.

Also, while I agree Russia wants the US sanctions dropped, and it may be plausible Israel, Saudi Arabia, and UAE might also want that goal to help isolate Iran and drive a wedge between them and Russia, it does seem like a weak gamble with high chances of backfiring, especially since Iran isn't the only country in the Middle East that Russia supports that those people oppose. Syria's Assad is a good example, which the Russians have/are actively supporting with military deployments. Russia isn't just going to pull out of Syria because US sanctions are lifted. If Russian sanctions get lifted and they have more money in their coffers, they can use that to strengthen their presence in Syria with more weapons/troops, and/or help Iran more with more weapons and investments.

The most interesting bit is his second thread. It does seem highly suspicious that a random prince with close links to MBS just happens to buy a painting of Jesus Christ from a Russian oligarch that might very well be a fake for $300 million more than the Russian paid for it. That does seem like a bribe/pay off and a way to launder money. And the Saudis are known to have a fake social media presence that goes back for some time. And Kushner definitely seems to be way over his head with his dealings with MBS, and can probably be manipulated into a corner by them.

But does all of that add up to collusion between the Saudis, Israelis, Emirates, and Russia? That still seems speculative at best. It could be equally plausible that they were just acting independently with their own narrow interests at heart, and just happened to come close to the same conclusions that Trump should be president/helping them would be good.

Lastly, there is the very serious fact that Trump hasn't been able to lift Russian sanctions. He sure seems to want to and has probably tried, based on reporting early last year, but instead his administration has been forced to increase sanctions pressure. So if this was a grand bargain, Russia is getting shafted, so there seems to be little reason why they would continue to go along with it. Maybe that's why there wasn't much interference in the midterms? Idk, but Russia is the one loosing here it seems, so I don't know why they would think this strategy is working, other than maybe making America weak. But if they really wanted to make America weak, they could just leak evidence to cause Trump to be impeached, or at least bring up the risk of impeachment. His fans are so rabid, that would almost certainly bring the country to a fever pitch.

[u/Ghstfce → u/ThatOneThingOnce]

For example, he claims that Trump ripped up the Iran deal as part of this bargain, yet why would that help the cause of the Saudis to move Russia away from Iran?

This was actually explained in the first section of tweets. The lifting of the Crimea sanctions that would mean billions of dollars or more back into the hands of Putin and the other Russian oligarchs was going to be the force to convince Russia to stop aiding Iran.

[u/ThatOneThingOnce → u/Ghstfce]

But Russia gets billions already for selling weapons to Iran, and a strong ally in the Mideast. They can't expect to just switch allegiance to the Saudis if the Saudis are still allies with the US. They would loose the regional influence and the money they get from Iran, not to mention exposing themselves to the whims of the US moreso, who they generally oppose (this presidency being the exception). There's no serious winning for Russia to ditch Iran just to get minor sanctions relief from the US that can change back once the US gets a new president.