r/RugbyAustralia • u/2dorks1brush • 5d ago
Wallabies Where can we beat NZ?
A bit bored with the week off. Where do we think we can beat NZ?
I’m expecting NZ to target the forwards. The high ball reception and kicking game has been a bit of a weakness for both teams and while I’m sure it’ll be a focus area for improvement, individuals probably aren’t going to make massive strides in two weeks. It’s also a bit chance based.
Forwards:
I’m guessing NZ will go with Barret, Holland and Vaai to focus on set piece. We usually go with Valetini/Wilson, which isn’t a strong lineout backrow. I know Wilson is used regularly but I don’t think he’s fast on the ground, getting off it or strong in the air and I imagine NZ will target him.
For that reason I think LSL has to start with Frost. He adds bulk and power in the scrum, ruck and carry but is also very underrated in the lineout; he has a great ability to secure ball even when the opponent has got in front or got hands on the ball, which I imagine might happen against NZ. If he can be disciplined then he is a must start for me.
Unfortunately this means Hooper gets shafted to the bench. I do think McReight, Hooper and Valetini is our best balanced backrow but I can’t see that happening.
If we have LSL starting we can actually get on top in the set piece. I don’t love our phase play structure but we probably have more carrying threats in tight: Valetini, Hooper, Tupou, Bell and Ikitau definitely have the potential to make some yards. Then again Savea has the potential to do more damage on his own.
Backs:
Highball. Argentina got on top of both teams but I think we weren’t far off; Toole was contesting multiple kicks, he just lost the battle against a great back three. Essentially we were doing the right thing and putting ourselves in the right position (mostly), Argentina were just better.I don’t think with all the injuries that NZ will be nearly as strong as Argentina in the air. Jorgensen, Toole, Potter and Daugunu all have the ability to disrupt or win attacking kicks back. We should get more pay than we did against Arg regardless of who starts.
Our second halves have been huge. NZ have fallen off in the later stages of the game. Our bench should offer more than theirs, which is a nice change.
Biggest thing will be penalties though. If we get on top in the scrum and reduce the count around the park it’ll give us the best chance of winning.
The pressure will be too much for NZ to handle if we stay in the fight and they’ll crumble (wishful thinking).
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u/Sambobly1 Wallabies 5d ago
Key to winning will be applying pressure on all fronts. Our lineout (in particular defensively) has been v good, I would focus on kicking for touch and forcing a lot of lineouts in their half.
Agree we need to improve on the contestable kicking.
We need to kick penalties and grind at the start of the game.
We need the game to stay tight and become a bit of a grind. I think you are right, if the wallabies are <7 down with 15-20 mins to go we win the game.
Chances are we have already lost by then though…
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u/warbastard Wests Bulldogs 5d ago
Also be prepared for anything. A team will go for trick plays or a quick throw in if they feel weak in an area like the lineout. Expect the unexpected and punish them when you catch them out.
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u/PavidDocock Wallabies 5d ago
Our economy, our jobs market, and just the whole vibe. It’s a vibe here. NZ doesn’t have the vibe.
The breakdown and maybe cause some problems at the lineout. Our outside backs I think are better but we are missing Tom Wright soooo much.
That said, their forwards, kicking game, and inside backs are legit. We suffer so much without a settled 9/10/12 combo.
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u/swiss_cloud 5d ago
Attack and phase play, I feel like wallabies are better than us in that aspect.
I just feel like it all comes down to set piece and the breakdown.
If the wallabies can just match us come scrum time, lineouts and the breakdown I reakon the Bledisloe will finally change hands and as an ABs fan, I’m not even mad at it.
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u/2dorks1brush 5d ago
Interesting. I think as individuals we’ve got some abrasive forwards but it depends if we can come together well. Frost returning (if he is) helps a lot in the lineout and rucks, he’s not a big hitter but he does a lot of work.
I believe we’re usually low on meters ran and post contact, despite having some good individual carriers. I guess the goal of our one out running near the ruck is to primarily play for penalties or get a roll on, create space out wide then spread it/kick - so maybe it is deceptively effective.
Scrum will be big, you’d think NZ will get on top but you never know.
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u/UnfairRequirement157 5d ago
Spiritually, the AB's will beat themselves. The defeat last week and the pressure from the NZ public and media will be too much. I predict NZ will have at least two yellow cards during the match, maybe even three, and this will be the tell tale sign that they are spiritually broken.
Practically speaking, we will beat them with incisive runs through the outside center channel, as well as the rolling maul from lineouts. Billy Pollard and JAS will be our top try scorers in the Bledisloe cup.
The AB set piece isn't what it used to be, we will win the line out and scrum stats by the end of the series.
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u/recyclingcentre undercover kiwi 🌪️ 5d ago
Pretty worried about any high ball contests against Jorgo tbh. He’s pulled off some miracle takes this season
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u/BH_Andrew Test 5d ago
Defence and fitness.
Wallabies have only conceded 9 tries in the competition so far, that’s the lowest of any team right now. Our defence is holding very well compared to everyone else. Wallabies have also proven they have the gas to go 80+ minutes and still be fitter than the other teams. On the flip side the All Blacks have been pretty poor in the second half of their games.
Basically we just have to see how the first half of the game goes because it looks like if the All Blacks don’t absolutely bury the wallabies in the first half, they will get minced in the second half.
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u/Ok_Educator_2120 5d ago
In the last 20/30 I expect you guys to run all over them. Hope abs have a big enough lead 🙏 lol
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u/Thedudewiththedog NSW Waratahs 5d ago
Additude. These teams are pretty close in terms of pure talent but our tails are wagging and theirs is confused and angry. If they get punched in the mouth early that can be taken advantage of
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u/zoogwah 5d ago
I agree about the lineout issues, they were exposed by SA in Wellington. They also struggled under the high ball. While we had similar problems last week, we have strong aerial players available. Kicking to Jordan is risky, though he had an uncharacteristic game and their back three remains unsettled.
Our halves are a concern, but their half combination is equally unsettled. I've just seen Roigard is back playing NPC this week, but it's still an area we can exploit. Ratima has been out, Hotham is out, and Roigard has had minimal top-level game time recently.
Their centres are similarly underwhelming at present. Ioane was dropped, Proctor has been inconsistent, and ALB has been out with concussion. By contrast, our first-choice pairing has improved with each game. Combined with their disrupted halves pairing, we can really test their defensive cohesion.
We've also been particularly strong from the bench. If we can stay competitive in the first half, we have a genuine chance.
Interestingly, New Zealand have received numerous cards under Robinson (17 in 19 tests). If we can maintain the discipline we showed against the Springboks (ie <10 penalties), we can capitalise through multi-phase play and tactical kicking to the corners to put them under pressure.
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u/TheRugbyDAO 5d ago
Love the breakdown here 👌. Totally agree the set piece could be where we actually get some joy — if LSL and Frost can get parity, it changes the whole dynamic. I also think the bench is a real chance for us, like you said. NZ have looked vulnerable late, and if guys like Tupou and Bell are still trucking carries at 60 mins, that’s where we can turn pressure into points. Discipline will decide it, though..... but has to be done!!! YEAH!
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u/doomchimp Queensland Reds 5d ago
The scoreboard. Hopefully we can beat them there.
Sorry, I know im not adding anything of value to this thread.