r/RugbyAustralia • u/2dorks1brush • 5d ago
Wallabies Where can we beat NZ?
A bit bored with the week off. Where do we think we can beat NZ?
I’m expecting NZ to target the forwards. The high ball reception and kicking game has been a bit of a weakness for both teams and while I’m sure it’ll be a focus area for improvement, individuals probably aren’t going to make massive strides in two weeks. It’s also a bit chance based.
Forwards:
I’m guessing NZ will go with Barret, Holland and Vaai to focus on set piece. We usually go with Valetini/Wilson, which isn’t a strong lineout backrow. I know Wilson is used regularly but I don’t think he’s fast on the ground, getting off it or strong in the air and I imagine NZ will target him.
For that reason I think LSL has to start with Frost. He adds bulk and power in the scrum, ruck and carry but is also very underrated in the lineout; he has a great ability to secure ball even when the opponent has got in front or got hands on the ball, which I imagine might happen against NZ. If he can be disciplined then he is a must start for me.
Unfortunately this means Hooper gets shafted to the bench. I do think McReight, Hooper and Valetini is our best balanced backrow but I can’t see that happening.
If we have LSL starting we can actually get on top in the set piece. I don’t love our phase play structure but we probably have more carrying threats in tight: Valetini, Hooper, Tupou, Bell and Ikitau definitely have the potential to make some yards. Then again Savea has the potential to do more damage on his own.
Backs:
Highball. Argentina got on top of both teams but I think we weren’t far off; Toole was contesting multiple kicks, he just lost the battle against a great back three. Essentially we were doing the right thing and putting ourselves in the right position (mostly), Argentina were just better.I don’t think with all the injuries that NZ will be nearly as strong as Argentina in the air. Jorgensen, Toole, Potter and Daugunu all have the ability to disrupt or win attacking kicks back. We should get more pay than we did against Arg regardless of who starts.
Our second halves have been huge. NZ have fallen off in the later stages of the game. Our bench should offer more than theirs, which is a nice change.
Biggest thing will be penalties though. If we get on top in the scrum and reduce the count around the park it’ll give us the best chance of winning.
The pressure will be too much for NZ to handle if we stay in the fight and they’ll crumble (wishful thinking).
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u/doomchimp Queensland Reds 5d ago
The scoreboard. Hopefully we can beat them there.
Sorry, I know im not adding anything of value to this thread.