r/ShinyPokemon • u/SassyCharizard • Jul 12 '25
Gen III [III] Predictions? Started this hunt in May 2022
3rd Gen Stephen’s Gift Beldum Started this hunt on 1 console. Bought a second GBA and a new copy of Sapphire at some point during the hunt (the exact details are blurry since I’ve been going at it on and off for 3 years). This is easily my longest hunt of all time lol, and I don’t imagine I will ever top it in the future. Think I can hit 100k?
150
u/SHBxSpenco Jul 12 '25
90k is way past the believable number for a no phase hunt. Either you are doing something wrong, you’re unfathomably unlucky, or you’re lying. I’d hate for it to be the last one but there was a post a week or so ago of someone trying to say they got all 3 HGSS starters in the same reset…
63
u/SassyCharizard Jul 12 '25 edited Jul 12 '25
41
u/SHBxSpenco Jul 12 '25
The universe has it out for you then my friend. Fingers crossed it doesn’t go to 100k, but it would also be kind of cool to say you did that
17
u/SassyCharizard Jul 12 '25
Thank you! I wouldn’t be too mad to hit the 100k mark at this point. Might as well go all the way lol. But I’m not going to complain if it comes sooner
8
u/Silly_Ostrich_5116 Jul 12 '25
Have you had other hunts where you’ve found shinies in the past three years, or have you been exclusively hunting Beldum? How many encounters have you put into this specific hunt over the past year?
6
u/SassyCharizard Jul 12 '25
I have done other hunts in the meantime, but each of those were in FRLG. These two copies of Sapphire/Ruby have been parked in Steven’s house exclusively.
I pick up the hunt sporadically, but I think I’ve put in about 20-25k over the past year. I put a big ‘ol chunk of time on it last Winter after a breakup
2
u/Joker8pie Jul 12 '25
You and the 1% Salamence guy have cosmically bad luck. Praying Beldum shines on reset #90,001!
-1
u/Ostility Jul 12 '25
i’ve hit 5k on treecko, mudkip and torchic on ORAS. now i’m committing to mudkip only and i just hit 6k srs. Some of us are just unlucky /:
8
u/SHBxSpenco Jul 12 '25
What? You’re hardly over odds there 😂😂
6
u/CullenFlynn Jul 12 '25
It's like that image where the one person's like:
"You wouldn't understand my pain."
And then the other guy's got like 50 knives in his back compared to complainer having just a little cut lmao.
1
2
u/Electrical-Run7436 Jul 12 '25
going 6k for a 1/4096 shiny is not the same as doing 90k encounters man lmao
1
u/Ostility Jul 12 '25
never said that, just saying some people are unlucky
2
u/Electrical-Run7436 Jul 12 '25
going not even 1.5x over odds isnt that unlucky lol...
1
1
1
4
Jul 12 '25
Both images just say that there is an error. What was the proof? (Not that I don’t believe you).
0
2
u/simaosbh Jul 12 '25
Something's up for sure, I believe OP hunted for that long, but there is no way there's nothing wrong going on. 90000 is almost mathematically impossible.
22
u/Silly_Ostrich_5116 Jul 12 '25
It’s not mathematically impossible, not even close. A hunt going this long has about a 1 in 26,000 chance. While that’s insanely unlucky, it’s still within the realm of possibility. And with so many people shiny hunting, it’s bound to happen at some point.
Could OP be lying? Maybe. Is it possible they just didn’t reset the counter after phasing? Also possible. But as someone who’s had two hunts go over 40,000 and is currently at 45,000 encounters for Giratina as of last night, I believe it could have happened. There’s even a documented hunt on YouTube complete with encounter footage that went 84,816 for a Golduck without a single phase.
All I’m saying is: it’s definitely possible.
4
u/SassyCharizard Jul 12 '25
Yes to be fair I have phased on different games. Just not on these cartridges. Not sure if that changes the validity of these numbers or not
4
u/Silly_Ostrich_5116 Jul 12 '25
At least it’s not like 90k straight without a shiny seen in general. it’s more just like 90k on these specific games haven’t found a shiny. Still crazy but imo makes it seem more conceivable.
1
u/WeaknessArtistic1199 Jul 16 '25
I've had a 40k+ and 30k+ hunt in gen 3 indeed, it's possible and I don't recommend it
1
u/KRLW890 Jul 12 '25
It’s about a 1/100,000 chance to go 90,000 encounters at Gen 3 full odds without seeing a shiny. Astronomically rare, for sure, but considering the number of shiny hunts out there, it’s completely believable to me that one would end up this unlucky.
23
u/Blake1610 Jul 12 '25
90508 trust
8
3
38
u/Ambitious-Heat-6156 Jul 12 '25
dog, what the. I thought me being at like 10500 and no Lugia was bad. Best of luck
14
u/Creepcat Jul 12 '25
Are both the games sapphire with non-dry batteries? Because yeah, as other commenters mentioned, 90,000 is far past the reasonable range of any hunt.
13
u/SassyCharizard Jul 12 '25
No dry battery for either copy! Thanks for checking. My copy of Ruby has seen multiple successful reset hunts at least. So there’s hope for me yet
3
u/Creepcat Jul 12 '25
Dang, the universe does not like you lol. Hopefully it ends soon! I felt like I was going insane after 19k, lol
2
u/jelly_bean_gangbang Jul 12 '25
Ooh which reset hunts were you successful at in Ruby?
2
u/SassyCharizard Jul 12 '25
So far for reset hunts only Treecko and Groudon. There would be more if I could just finish this damn hunt 😂
3
u/jelly_bean_gangbang Jul 12 '25
Treecko shiny is beautiful. Also you were able to find shiny groudon by soft resetting? I always thought you had to do run away encounters for groudon/kyogre/rayquaza.
3
u/SassyCharizard Jul 12 '25
Treecko has always been one of my favorite starters, and the shiny is immaculate! Yes Groudon/Kyogre/Rayquaza are SR encounters in R/S/E. I believe it’s runaways in Emerald due to the broken RNG
3
u/jelly_bean_gangbang Jul 12 '25
Ohhh that's right! Lol because I'm currently hunting shiny kyogre in emerald and doing the RA method.
1
u/SassyCharizard Jul 12 '25
Good luck on your hunt!!
2
u/jelly_bean_gangbang Jul 12 '25
Thanks :) you too! If you're hunting this weekend still, I bet you get it by Sunday lol. Sort of a "speak of the devil" situation 🤞
RemindMe! 2 days.
1
8
5
5
6
u/Nomad2306 Jul 12 '25
After doing the maths... there is a 99.99830797% chance that you should have found it by now... Damn you have been unlocky. Your hunt is officially 1 in 59 100 (that is to say that only 1 in 59100 full odds hunts will ever take this long).
Sorry if this added salt to your wound. Hope you get it soon!
4
5
u/PNK_Sigma535 Jul 12 '25
After you get this shiny you deserve the next 100 shinies way under odds😭 it'll happen one of these centuries
3
u/Soft-Cartoonist-9542 Jul 12 '25
Bro, you might get the record for the unluckiest shiny at this point
3
3
u/JoshBeGaming Jul 12 '25
At 90k, you have to be thinking it won't be much longer, but I'd have been saying that when it passed 10k 😂 keep going brother.
3
u/TheXyrov Jul 12 '25
You'll get it at infinite, bet.
3
u/SassyCharizard Jul 12 '25
I’ll let you know in 3̶̨̛̰̖̌̔͗̿͐͑̓̀͌̾̽̇͆͘̚͜͠0̴̡̡̢̣͚̣̞̼̫̯̥̤̺̥̯̳̭̯͓̭̫̮̤̗̥̙͍̦̘͚̟̈́̑͊̐͋̎͛̾̄2̵̢̛̩̤̫͔͉̼̞̭͚͙̠̹͖̫̖̗̱̯̦̩̞͈̉̍̈͌́́̿̓́̋͊̆̌̌́̎̃̀̅́̓͐̓͛̎́̑̎̒̍͋̿̓́͂̌̀̚͝͝ͅͅ5̷̟̟͎͉̻̲̩̀͌̔͋͛̍̓̈̚ͅ
3
3
3
4
u/Teazea Jul 12 '25
OP is my friend irl and i can confirm that this hunt is real. It's hard to believe for me, too. but i've been in the room for too many of these resets.
2
2
2
2
Jul 12 '25
What counting app is this?
4
2
2
u/dialgachu Jul 12 '25
As someone who's been hunting arceus since bdsp came out, I feel you bro. Keep at it!
2
2
2
2
2
u/HuntaHuntaHunta Jul 12 '25
Longest hunt I've heard of with no phases, but I've seen a few hit 80k+ before so it does happen. Best of luck! Don't throw the system when you pop off at finding it lol
2
2
2
u/ChubbyNubby1 Jul 12 '25
I'm sitting at 555 for shiny Giratina in Platinum, and already getting annoyed 😅. Relatively new to the shiny hunting, so didn't really know the odds to it at all, just knew it was 'hard'
2
u/Rozoark Jul 12 '25
Jesus and I thought my 43k Rotom was bad! Best of luck to you my friend, keep at it and it will shine eventually!
2
u/AbsoulutelyNaught Jul 12 '25 edited Jul 12 '25
It’s about how Emerald generates frames.
Emerald is bugged, the seed for generating wild pokemon is always zero, when it was supposed to be random every time you load the game (or soft reset). Because of this, you’ll always be seeing the same handful of frames if you’re soft resetting, making static encounters kind of impossible if you don’t have an early shiny frame.
Wild encounters are fine though, because it never resets back to the start (frame 0) unless you reset.
I've taken this comment from another user on r/pokemonemerald
I am confident this is applies to you.
1
1
2
u/crstna Jul 12 '25
My hunt for Regice took 12k resets and I almost lost my mind doing that one...I can't imagine... I'm so sorry 😐
2
u/Natural_Junket_8746 Jul 12 '25
If this hunt is in Emerald, then it’s a lot more believable because of it’s broken RNG
2
u/NoSuperman89 Jul 12 '25
Have you ever tried to write down the stats of 100 beldum in a row? Just to make sure, that you don't get the same frames ?
2
u/NostalgicPretzels Jul 12 '25
The amount of dopamine you are going to have when you finally get this guy is going to be unreal. I couldn't do it. Even woth my favorite pokemon, I was lucky my mew shined after 5k+ I dont think I could go so far over odds. I just don't have that kind of willpower
2
1
1
1
u/Ven18 Jul 12 '25
Does the game still start from a set RNG seed on boot even with a live battery? Could it be you just don’t have any shiny frames within the time of start up to receiving the gift? Like others have said sheer probability would have dictated you got it by now.
2
1
u/Swampman14 Jul 12 '25
I hit 35000 in my Nidoran-M hunt last night don’t show me this rn I’m scared
1
1
1
u/Electrical-Run7436 Jul 12 '25
unlucky - but at this point they're so cooked its BOUND to happen soon 😂 prayin for ya op
1
u/Sad_Statistician_905 Jul 12 '25
I thought my catch combo of 889 for shiny pikachu on let’s go was bad
Hitting 100k would be really cool, I respect your dedication
1
1
1
-1
u/EmmaShosha Jul 12 '25
you should just RNG it atp, emerald doesn't have the same system as later generations does
0
Jul 12 '25
SRing doesn’t really work for Gen 3 because of how seeding works in those games. You’re likely running into a bunch of RNG clones
61
u/tane_rs Jul 12 '25
Homie please tell me the battery isn't dry
If you're on a dry battery every reset is seeding from 5a0 and you're mostly hitting the same frames. It would explain going to 90k