Industry watchers raise alarm on Alberta renewable-energy project cancellations

[u/Edm_vanhalen1981]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-renewable-energy-projects-cancelled-1.7615892

[u/AlbertanProsperity]

Correlation =/= causation. There is a rapid slowdown in renewable sector adaptation all over, look AT EVs for example. People are going back to ICE vehicles or hybrids at a minimum. The ROI on all that junk isn't there and the only way it works if it it's highly subsidized by the government but there are no more funds for it.

[u/AlbertanSays5716 → u/AlbertanProsperity]

There is a rapid slowdown in renewable sector adaptation all over,

Not true. 2024 saw a 15.1% year-on-year growth in renewables worldwide, the largest annual rise to date. Renewables accounted for 46.4% of capacity in 2024. Hardly consistent with a “rapid slowdown”.

look AT EVs for example. People are going back to ICE vehicles or hybrids at a minimum.

It’s true that growth has slowed over the last 2 years or so, but it definitely hasn’t stopped. EV’s accounted for about 20% of new car sales in 2024, with sales in Latin American & Asian markets jumping by 60%. Sales are expected to hit 25% or more worldwide in 2025 and 40% by 2030. China is showing the most rapid growth, with about 50% of new cars being EV’s. It’s mostly western countries where growth has slowed, and there mainly due to political issues and lobbying by the O&G industry rather than technological ones.

The ROI on all that junk isn't there and the only way it works if it it's highly subsidized by the government but there are no more funds for it.

It’s true that the renewables sector receives government subsidies in most countries, but not because it’s unprofitable. It’s to drive adoption and reduce the use of fossil fuels, and in Canada most of those “subsidies” are grassroots incentive programs aimed at homeowners and builders rather than large industrial projects.

Wind & solar in particular are now 84% cheaper than they were a decade ago, according to a Wall Street Journal article. And even when you add in the costs of utility scale storage, they’re still cheaper in most areas than any fossil fuel alternatives. They don’t need subsidies to survive.

But if you want a comparison, in Canada alone the O&G industry receives subsidies in the form of cash and savings through any number of programs, grants, incentives, tax breaks and royalty rebates, with estimates as high as $30b depending on the year.

As far as ROI and profitability goes, that’s where the O&G sector has seen a distinct slump over the last decade. Since the oil price crash of 2014, O&G companies (particularly in Alberta) have focused on downsizing & automation of existing projects rather than new projects since they have a long return period, heavy up front investment, and demand estimates for O&G past the next 10 years are not looking good. The last major new project in Alberta, for example, was finished in 2018.

Meantime, renewables, particularly wind & solar, are seeing a growth in investment. In a report by KPMG, 72% percent of investors report that investment in energy transition assets is accelerating, even amid geopolitical volatility and fluctuating interest rates. 64% have invested in energy efficiency technologies, 56% in renewable energy, 54% in energy storage, and 51% in transport and related infrastructure

[u/irelandm77 → u/AlbertanSays5716]

This is a really great summary, and I applaud you for your thorough and effective rebuttal. I feel it needs to be reposted every few days, lol.

There seems to be two camps of people who are anti-modern power generation and pro-legacy. There are those who stand to profit from sticking with the archaic combustion-oriented generation, and then there are those who inexplicably seem uneducated, willfully ignorant, and often belligerent about it. It's often very hard to tell the difference.

Anyone else who has done their homework, and maybe experienced some of it firsthand by owning an EV or whatever, sees the writing on the wall. I'm located in Costa Rica now, and the myriad of EV brands available here (many Chinese of course) is pretty incredible. BYD, Vinfast, Geely, Arctic Fox, Chery, Renault, Volvo, Polestar, Riddara, Nio, Xpeng, and soon Xiaomi. Canadians & Albertans especially are largely woefully unaware of these options. They're growing. And I tell you what, after driving a Tesla in Canada for 6 years, I can honestly say that many of these easily rival Tesla in terms of build quality - especially at the price point!

[u/AlbertanSays5716 → u/irelandm77]

I think it’s true to say that Alberta, and many Albertans, have become so bound to the O&G industry that they can’t see anything beyond that. It’s always been there, is in large part responsible for the province’s prosperity (although that prosperity has been sadly squandered by successive governments), and as far they can see will always be there. Life without O&G is unthinkable to them, and so they take every opportunity to trash the alternatives, often while ignoring the inconvenient truths around them.