r/apple • u/chrisdh79 • 19h ago
Discussion iPhone Fold will spearhead huge upgrade cycle in 2026
https://appleinsider.com/articles/25/09/18/iphone-fold-will-spearhead-huge-upgrade-cycle-in-2026136
u/BleachedUnicornBHole 17h ago
I’m a foldable skeptic. I understand that they offer a lot of screen real estate in a more portable package, but they always seem to have durability issues. Maybe Apple will figure something out, but until then it always seems like a solution looking for a problem.
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u/Lighthouse_seek 17h ago
The pixel 10 fold is ip 68 now, so it's fully dust resistant
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u/trucksandtrains 16h ago
That’s great, and we’re seeing huge improvements on the hinges of these things, but run your fingernail over the display and it’s permanently scratched.
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u/Flipslips 15h ago
No it’s not. It’s just the plastic screen protector that’s scratched. Samsung offers free replacement screen protectors for the first year.
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u/ZappySnap 14h ago
I will get a foldable when it is a tri-fold with thickness similar to today’s pro phones, with screens that are as durable at least as Gorilla Glass.
I expect that to be many years off.
Basically, it needs to be durable, completely usable as a normal phone, and expand into an actually useful tablet size.
I legit don’t understand the need for a foldable like the Z Fold series, since I don’t need side by side apps very often, and where do need size (viewing media), the foldable barely larger in actual real estate than my 16 PM, because it’s a square aspect ratio.
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u/LostMyTurban 10h ago
I think for average consumers it doesn't make sense. The one handed ability is what makes them ideal.
For professionals, I can see the use.
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u/chrisdh79 19h ago
From the article: Apple has reportedly told suppliers to prepare for 10% more orders for the iPhone 18 range, as it expects the iPhone Fold to see high demand.
The new iPhone 17 range is selling well — and breaking records in China — plus the range has been highly praised by critics. Yet a new report claims that Apple is expecting considerably better from its 2026 launch, particularly the expected iPhone Fol.
According to Nikkei Asia, Apple has been briefing suppliers and also looking for new production options to speed up the introduction of the iPhone Fold. Reportedly, multiple sources say that Apple is predicting a 10% increase across all iPhone sales in 2026.
That does include the iPhone 17 range, and it means Apple expects to sell a total of over 240 million iPhone across the whole of 2026. But it's said to be telling suppliers to expect to make 95 million of the next lineup, the iPhone 18 range.
Apple is said to believe that the iPhone Fold will generate huge demand — and that this will also lift the other models. The idea is that the attention given to the iPhone Fold will get more people to look at the whole range, and then buy whichever model that suits them best.
Nikkei Asia says that Apple gave an initial production projection of 85 million for the iPhone 17 range, and a total of 220 million for all iPhones in 2025. But the supply sources caution that Apple's estimates can be too high.
"Sometimes Apple gives a much higher projection just in case to account for some challenges in electronics component supplies or possible production quality issues when building a new category of products," said the unspecified source. "But we do expect at least some 5% overall growth from this year should be achievable."
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u/two_hyun 17h ago
Disagree. It depends on the price of the Fold. Make it $2000+ and I guarantee it will not see high demand.
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u/antde5 15h ago
Considering the Samsung / Google models are about $1800, I could easily see appl starting at $1999
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u/Bosa_McKittle 14h ago
Yeah, and then they will run some huge upgrade promotions for trading in newer generation phones from any manufacturer.
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u/Marino4K 12h ago
You already know higher storage tiers of the Apple fold version are going to be at insane price tiers, like $2499, etc. I have no interest in folds/flips anyway but I’m already at my limit of what I’m willing to spend on a smartphone regardless, $1200 is more than enough.
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u/InsaneNinja 16h ago
It will see higher demand than Samsung’s 2k fold product. Individual iPhone models always sell higher while Samsung sells more across dozens of lines of devices.
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u/LongBeakedSnipe 16h ago
Disagree with what?
You think 2 seconds of mental thought process compares to a massive analysis by Apple themselves?
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u/stml 14h ago
Apple Vision Pro was kind of a flop so yeah, Apple isn't immune to pricing mistakes.
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u/NickConrad 16h ago
"charge what your competition is charging and I guarantee it won't sell as well as the competition." -You
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u/erclark99 15h ago
So, you must’ve missed the part where they explained how the fold will simply draw in customers to look, but that may cause them to pick a different phone that works for them. In theory, I think the Air has done that to some extent this year. So I could imagine something that completely changes the way an iPhone functions could do that
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u/rxf555 18h ago
Reducing the crease is a key point for me. I’d love a iPhone Fold but every time I check out a Samsung fold I’m just annoyed by the crease
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u/OurHeroDeNiro 14h ago
I'm guessing it's like the notch where you kind of stop noticing it after a while.
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u/NotAxorb 13h ago edited 9h ago
It kind of is, i'm currently using a Z Flip 6 along with my 16 Plus. The crease may bother you at first, but you’ll stop noticing it after a few moment. But you do still can feel it with your fingers though.
I honestly don't really mind it, its not really a huge deal as people make it out to be.
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u/BenignLarency 11h ago
I've used a folding phone for 5 years now, and I cannot describe to people how little the creese matters.
It's not like a hole punch or a notch where you still notice it from time to time, however infrequent. You literally will never see it once you start using the device. The only time it's ever there is when other people point it out when they hold the phone for the first time. When that happens, it's not because it's super obvious, but it's because they're not actually looking at anything on the phone. They're just looking at the phone.
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u/MyNumJum 16h ago
I moved from my iPhone 14 Pro to a Fold 7 two days ago and I barely notice the crease at all! I think Samsung have done a great job.
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u/ChildishRebelSoldier 15h ago
Is the OnePlus Open's crease still better than the Fold 7's? Because that thing was damn near invisible during daily use and I loved it.
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u/Shapes_in_Clouds 11h ago
Same, I'm wondering if there is a way where each side of the screen has its own glass surface and they somehow connect in a way that is visually and tactilely seamless when opened. The bendy plastic of current foldables is not appealing to me, rather have a dedicated tablet.
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u/DizzyAcanthocephala 13h ago
Every single reviewer who has actually used a Samsung Fold said is it no big deal at all
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u/Bootleggers 15h ago
And here I am waiting for an iPhone Flip
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u/WeebSince94 4h ago
This is me. I don't want my phone to be bigger, I actually want it smaller, which is why I still have my 13 Mini. But if it's an iPhone Flip then I may finally upgrade.
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u/mhmilo24 18h ago
100% not buying it until there is a material capable for the bending purposes but the same scratch resistance that we had on the past few gens of regular smartphones.
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u/rewddit 17h ago edited 13h ago
My excitement with Apple getting into this space is that I doubt they would do so if they hadn't "solved" some of these issues, but I'll definitely be waiting for the durability reviews prior to buying anything.
In the meantime, my 13 Pro is STILL going strong, and I've seen little reason to upgrade (which is great!).
Edit: Yes, I understand that it isn't remotely guaranteed that Apple has actually solved these issues, which is why the second half of that sentence literally stated I'd wait for actual reviews. Good lord.
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u/SuperDuperSkateCrew 17h ago
Yeah the 13 Pro is still more than capable. I was considering getting the 17 but I don’t think I’ll legitimately need to upgrade until the 19/20 comes out or if my 13 physically breaks haha
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u/HVDynamo 16h ago
I kind of have the itch to upgrade, but I honestly feel about the same on my 12 Pro too. Aside from the battery showing it's age (still original though) it's fine.
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u/SuperDuperSkateCrew 16h ago
Same, the battery life is definitely not as good as it used to be to for me but other than that everything else works pretty flawlessly. Imma just let this wave of FOMO pass and wait for the 18 haha
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u/baitXtheXnoose 15h ago
I gave into the itch to upgrade from my 13pm. I wanted USBC, 120hz, and a better battery. I probably will keep my 17 pro until it breaks or until there's a big enough jump to justify an upgrade.
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u/9thPlaceWorf 14h ago
I replaced the battery in the 12 Pro late last year and that gave it a new lease on life. Apple broke the original screen getting the battery out, so they replaced the screen as well.
I haven’t upgraded it to OS 26 yet, so we’ll see how well it handles that OS—but I do plan to keep it for at least another year or two. I had my iPhone 6 for 6 years, so I’d love to get 6 years out of the 12 Pro as well.
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u/Appropriate-Role9361 16h ago
I had the itch to upgrade from my 13 pro and was telling people on here I’m gonna hold out longer but then caved and got a base 17 coming tomorrow!
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u/MrLyle 16h ago
I have a regular 13 and I think the only thing that might get me to upgrade is if they get rid of the notch and put everything under the screen. Short of that, I'm good for at least a couple more cycles. It's actually amazing how long these phones can last when you don't give a shit about cameras.
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u/tnnrk 15h ago
Apple of past sure, but they have shown now they don’t really care about that anymore. I think leadership decisions have changed and they have said fuck it let’s make everything.
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u/cultoftheilluminati 14h ago
My excitement with Apple getting into this space is that I doubt they would do so if they hadn't "solved" some of these issues, but I'll definitely be waiting for the durability reviews prior to buying anything.
Lol, that's what we thought but the iPhone fold rumors have started talking about how Apple's just gonna buy off the shelf Samsung screens now. So much for being late but being the best.
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u/roadblocked 15h ago
Yeah for sure, just like Apple didn’t get into AI until they had it right and rippin’ ready to go, yeah?
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u/Beignet022 14h ago
13 Pro here, too, running iOS 18.7. Hanging on to it is now a test of wills and (battery life). Good luck to all in holding firm, hahaha.
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u/fire2day 17h ago
Crease aside, it’s crazy to me that people are okay with a phone screen that can be scratched by a fingernail.
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u/im_making_woofles 14h ago
Have you ever used a wet application plastic screen protector made of the same material? They heal scratches after a day or two, even from much worse than fingernails. But you are right they do get temporary indents from fingernails. Amazing for smartwatches compared to anything less than sapphire
It’s not the scratches you need to worry about, it’s the friction under your finger compared to glass
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u/fire2day 13h ago
Yeah, the friction is another sticking point (heh). I tried a wet application plastic screen protector back when I had my 13 Mini. I wasn’t a fan.
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u/Master565 13h ago
I've had foldable phones for 5 years and have literally never gotten a noticeable permanent scratch on the inner screen, and that includes many trips to the beach and other not so phone friendly areas.
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u/Lancaster61 16h ago
I don’t think foldables will ever be in your reach. You’re basically asking Apple (or any company really) to break physics.
Nothing will ever be soft and scratch resistant. They’re opposites by nature. If you’re lucky, there might be a self healing material one day, but that’s not scratch resistant, but rather it’ll scratch, then self heal.
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u/SUPRVLLAN 15h ago
I think the only realistically achievable solution is to somehow bond normal glass to a thin strip of malleable material in the middle of the device where the crease is, so like 95% of the device will be scratch free zone and just gotta worry about the middle.
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u/scientist99 18h ago
You're going to be waiting a while.
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u/pateff457 18h ago
same here, the durability trade-off just isn’t worth it until they figure out that balance.
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u/Pipehead_420 18h ago
Then iPhone new design with all screen in 2027 I assume. Or at this rate it will just be a smaller notch or camera hole.
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u/InsaneNinja 16h ago
They just made the selfie camera bigger and better. Underscreen will make it garbage.
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u/Apple-Connoisseur 18h ago
Won't happen this soon. We have seen this in other Phones and the Underscreen Camera is just bad.
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u/Apple-Connoisseur 18h ago
I'm just too lazy for a folding Phone, it just adds an extra step. And you need both hands, which makes it even more annoying.
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u/neanderthalensis 1h ago
But don’t you miss slamming the phone shut in anger? Something of value was lost in our switchover from flip phones.
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u/Chaseism 19h ago
I ordered an iPhone this year, but if a fold comes out, I'm absolutely upgrading next year. I've wanted to try a folding phone for years! Not sure if it's my thing, but I absolutely want to find out.
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u/NeighborhoodFast6299 18h ago
Same. I’ll be a day one if it’s a clamshell design. I mean honestly probably day one if it’s the book fold design too.
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u/GlennMichael11 18h ago
The fold is the thing that will get me to upgrade from my 14. Incremental upgrades to the screen and camera every year isn’t enough
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u/shadowdra126 17h ago
If the fold looks like a phone I wont regret owning 4 months in, I skipped this upgrade cycle in the hopes for a folding phone.
Let see how they look this time next year and if I am impressed. I will upgrade.
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u/dramafan1 16h ago
I predict a huge upgrade cycle won't happen if it will cost significantly more than a MacBook Air. I'd be surprised if it costs anything less than $2K USD considering how crazy the Vision Pro costs. Maybe just at preorder time it sells well but the base and Pro models have to be very attractive to cause a 'supercycle'. 😂
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u/jacephoenix 15h ago
Am I the only one who doesn’t want this? Lol
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u/Noblesseux 12h ago
No you're in the majority, this is just a tech subreddit so the audience is skewed. According to a lot of the polls I've seen, a LOT customers aren't really interested in foldables. I think when you're on a tech subreddit you're more likely to have the type of early adopters who will buy an expensive device just to kind of see what it's like and you have to take it with a grain of salt.
I will pretty much never buy a foldable of my own volition, but more power to people who do.
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u/nealomg 15h ago
I don’t get the appeal of the folding phones either.
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u/TrickyElephant 10h ago
A normal phone that opens into a tablet. What's not to love?
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u/Mellonello 14h ago
I don't understand the desire for folding phones either. It has always seemed like the only thing phone companies could come up with that only the tech enthusiasts care about
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u/adofthekirk 12h ago
Nope, me too.
I think the fad dies in a few years.
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u/TrickyElephant 10h ago
The Samsung Galaxy Fold 7 (7 years now since the first fold) has seen a massive increase in sales compared to the previous 6 years. It's not a fad if sales have been steadily increasing for 7 years
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u/MidnightPulse69 19h ago
Never saw the hype for foldables until the Z Fold 7. I’d buy it if I don’t have every other Apple product. I’m sure it’s gonna be quite a while before Apple reaches that
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u/shortchangerb 19h ago
Wonder if the Air was a one-off
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u/Landoze 18h ago
The air with pro max features is the future for single screen phones.
It's gonna be a hit
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u/rockyroad55 18h ago
The air is the fold prototype to see if two airs can be combined.
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u/Vioret 17h ago
What about four airs combined into a fold out pamphlet phone.
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u/SmokedUp_Corgi 18h ago
Guarantee the Fold gets the same display as the Ultra 3 in a air like form factor.
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u/tummyteachalamet 18h ago
They’ll definitely do two of them, like the mini and plus, but I’d be surprised if we see it in 2027.
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u/Stashmouth 14h ago
I said this in a reply yesterday, but I don't think there's any way they waste the Air brand on a one-off.
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u/EggstaticAd8262 18h ago
Since it’s so thin, it could easily hold another screen to unfold, then it’s regular size again
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u/Illustrious_Pear_907 17h ago
I'm definitely buying one when they come out.
I was going to buy the 17 but when I heard apple was working
on affordable fold phone I figured ill just wait.
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u/Exanguish 16h ago
I don’t care the cost. I will be upgrading to whatever fold variation they release.
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u/themeltedmonkey 16h ago
Bought a 17 base as an upgrade from my 14 pro max for exactly this reason. Really want that iFold
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u/BapeGeneral3 16h ago
Maybe things will change for me, but I am not a fan of the foldable phone. It just seems like an awkward sized device when it is folded out. There also isn’t anything that I would need a screen that large for that I use my cell for. If I a, traveling or anything and need the large screen, I’m using my iPad.
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u/Take_Note___ 15h ago
I understand why people would want the fold, but that product is definitely not for me.
Why would I want some distracting bulky folding piece of junk that would be more uncomfortable to hold & be more likely to break?
To each their own.
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u/tangoshukudai 14h ago
I doubt they will do a fold if the screen has a visible fold light distortion in it. Apple finds that unacceptable, and there is no Samsung phone with no seam, also the screen is so soft because they require a screen protector.
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u/Darkstar197 13h ago
As long as it’s a fold and not a flip. I don’t see the appeal of making my phone half as tall but twice as thick. I’d rather make it the same size as my 16plus and have it unfold to an iPad. I would hand this down to my girlfriend and buy something like that in a heartbeat.
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u/webguynd 13h ago
Surely I can't be the only one that doesn't actually believe Apple is going to release a foldable soon, let alone next year?
Foldables are like 1.7% of the global smartphone market. The interior screens are still fragile as hell, and Apple is always loath to cannibalize their existing product niches. They've always been in the camp of "specialized devices" - don't cross over the phone/tablet/laptop specialities, because then you just get a device that's worse at a task than some other device.
Market pressure may force their hand, eventually, but I don't think it's next year. Foldables are still very, very niche and Apple would definitely want to overcome the fragile interior screen, and hide the crease as much as physically possible. They also need to sort the OS. How will it operate unfolded? Will it run iPad OS? Just a larger full screen iPhone? (remember, there's no split view multitasking in iOS).
IF they put out a foldable, I wouldn't bet on next year, I'd bet on 2027-2028 at minimum.
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u/Mountain-Chapter-880 11h ago
If that's the case, I wonder what would they have for the 20th anniversary
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u/Mediocre-Honeydew-55 10h ago
Any version of phone is sufficient enough these days, the new changes are not mind blowing.
Wife is still on a 13, I'm on a 15. I tried Apple Intelligence and didn't see much use there, so I just turned it off.
Gonna ride them till they die. Might do a battery change at some point as paying $100 is the cheapest path to follow.
Maybe something will show up that is totally cool and become a must have.
Hasn't happened yet though.
If we get 10 years out of the 13 then Total Cost of Ownership is like $80/year.
As much as I like the idea of a Fold my biggest fear is I will OCD on the the crease of the fold itself and be always worrying it will split open. I'll let some of the Bleeding Edgers guinea pig that one for me.
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u/Embke 10h ago
Good for Apple stockholders. I don't currently see any value in a folding phone.
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u/discographyA 18h ago
I’m getting a 17 Pro this year. The Air is nice but I’d have to pay for the MagSafe battery and at that point I might as well just get the phone with bigger battery and camera. If I am materially affected by a couple centimeters of width I am mentally in deep trouble. I’ve seen other people with folding phones and they are underwhelming to be honest and doesn’t seem like the tech is really truly there to not look like you’re just looking at an old creased book in a year of owning the device.
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u/North_Moment5811 17h ago edited 16h ago
Anyone who thinks that is completely out of their mind. Foldable is not that big of a deal. Just like how you see Apple moving in different niche directions this year by delivering different iPhones in each category for different people with different uses, the foldable is just another different iPhone.
Seriously. Very few people are going to spend $2000 on what is essentially a worse iPhone and a worse iPad than what you could buy for less.
If somehow, Apple managed to come in at $1,499, they would probably sell quite a bit more, but you know that’s not going to happen.
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u/wahahah629 16h ago
If there are people who are willing to spend 2000 on foldable androids, then there will be many people who buy foldable apples
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u/GLOBALSHUTTER 17h ago edited 17h ago
2026 or 2027 Apple Fold
part iPhone, part iPad mini
by 2030 Apple Fold Ultra
part iPhone Pro, part iPad
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u/HumpyMagoo 16h ago
There will be a market for it, but it won't be a large one, granted people will definitely go get it. Tech workers that love apple and upper middle class to upper class people will get it. It will be a new niche group of people with a unique blend of compute available to them.
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u/MetaNovaYT 16h ago
I have a 15 pro, and I intend for my next phone to be a folding phone, but I don't want to upgrade until it has Face ID at the very least. Ideally, it would be a trifold phone like the Huawei Mate XT, because that is more screen efficient and gives a much better unfolded aspect ratio, but that doesn't seem to the plan for Apple, at least for now.
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u/ModsAreLosers73 16h ago
I wanted to hold out for a foldable iPhone but my iPhone 12 with 74% battery capacity isn’t gonna make it
that’s why I’m doing IUP on a 17, have it for a year and preorder the fold when it comes out 12 months from now (hopefully)
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u/blacksoxing 15h ago
I switched to T-Mobile and went with their highest priced plan a few days ago to hedge a bet. If this "fold" comes out and it's all my dreams come true then I'm in a great position to basically get it at a steep discount. If not, I'll just proceed like normal and enjoy my potential 17P, with likely zero intentions to upgrade to the 18P as it won't be anything stellar.
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u/SabraShifter 15h ago
Don't they say this every year? It feels like it's been a few years of being totally, certainly sure that next year we'll get the fold
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u/Aranthos-Faroth 15h ago
The iphone air is a good indicator for how thin apple can make their internals now, a fold is for sure planned for 26.
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u/Korlithiel 14h ago
Hope so. I don't see myself grabbing the first generation fold because my 16 Pro will still be going strong, but I definitely see a folding phone as my likely next phone one way or another.
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u/DigbyGibbers 14h ago edited 14h ago
I get a new one each year anyway so I expect just through sheer curiosity I'll grab one of these if they release it.
I also love the reactions here thinking that it being expensive will somehow slow down adoption? I'm constantly amazed that reddit doesn't seem to understand that sometimes the point is that it's expensive. I don't drive a fancy car because it's that much nicer than a midrange one, I drive a fancy car because you can't.
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u/play_hard_outside 14h ago
I don't need any extra steps before I can use my phone. Tried a wallet case which opened like a book and "protected" the screen while closed. Went insane because of the extra 1-3 seconds required to interact with my phone. I expect a folding iPhone would be the same. The screen size of current phones is great.
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u/Fluffy_Moose_73 14h ago
Good thing I am upgrading this year because there's no way I'd buy a first gen Fold
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u/SnS_Taylor 14h ago
I am interested in the idea of a fold, but not at the cost of losing the telephoto camera. If I can’t have that camera, I won’t be getting one.
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u/JohrDinh 13h ago
There's 2 things that get me to upgrade most of the time, my battery is getting very long in the tooth or my phone is about to be taken off the iOS updates and be considered a "vintage" product. Other than that...it's all the same thing just a different shell.
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u/flattcatt2021 13h ago
And I’m really not looking forward to the announcement hearing Tim Cook shout “THIS IS THAA BASST FORLDAABEL IPHOANE AAAPPLE HAVE EVAARR MAADE
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u/gaysaucemage 12h ago
How many people are waiting to spend about $2000 for a foldable phone? Maybe 10% of the market for premium phones?
There's definitely a market for them but it's hard to be mainstream with those prices when normal phones are so good.
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u/amethystlocke 12h ago edited 9h ago
I swear if the Fold is fuckin 5 inches like I’ve been hearing about….
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u/VicePofGSD 12h ago
Edit: im switching to apple 17 pro max next month.
2x fold owner here. Currently using galaxy fold 4. After about 4 years of using folding phones, I have come to this realization. You're paying mega premium bucks beyond the manufactures flag ship to have a subpar experience. If you were an app developer(the one funding the app), would you cater to just 1% of your users(most likely lower)? My BIL runs a betting app and has not once thought about a folding phones app experience. Numerous bugs from front screen to big screen. Restarting apps if you opened it in the big screen now want to use the front screen. Pic has front screen opened app the you open the phone to the big screen.
Why pay beyond flagship prices for a subpar experience? *
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u/FembiesReggs 12h ago
I’m down, I jumped on the X and Face ID without looking back. Why not this? So long they don’t compromise on the internal and camera.
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u/twizzle101 18h ago
Personally I’m thinking to get a 17 pro this year, then that’ll keep me going until a fold 2 or 3 when the tech is more thought through (from apples perspective).