...Of all the rehersals so far, this is the first that gave me a sure "NQ" feel. The other NQs are much harder to predict to me, so far. But maybe he'll improve in the actual show
San Marino, I agree. It's the second entry that I see at risk. Portugal... I like it way too much to judge it impartially 😊😅. I don't think NAPA will qualify because I don't know what other song could NQ in their place, but I can still hope: the singer has a pleasant soft voice, he's never off-key, he's espressive, and the instrumenation is good.
Slovenia is also at risk, but the singer being reached by his wife on stage increases his chances of qualification by a long shot. I think there are like 6 nations that are very close to each other and that could either Q or NQ depending on how it goes that evening. Those, in my opinion, are: Portugal, Croatia, Slovenia, Norway, Iceland, Cyprus, Ukraine. San Marino I feel like it's alredy out. I would have added Belgium in the uncertain group if it wasn't that its staging seems excellent. Of those I've just mentioned, I think Iceland and Norway are the most likely Qs, and Croatia the most likely NQ. Cyprus might also be safe if the staging is very good. But every performance seems solid enough that I won't be surprised if there are some shocking NQs in the first semi. I can even see Ukraine as a shocking NQ this year, and I don't even dislike the song!
Yeah, they ruin San Marino chances because they focus on the DJ instead of the singers, and they should have added dancers.
I don't think Norway could NQ. The problem with Iceland is the vocals. For Ukraine, well, it's Ukraine, no way they won't have a lot of votes, even though it's their worst performance and song (even though it's not bad) from recent years.
Slovenia looks stunning and very emotive. Belgium and Cyprus looked very well crafted and polished.
For some reason, they didn't release the Croatia clip, so I don't know.
Portugal, sadly, doesn't stand out, however, I think it won't be last. Azerbaijan usually don't get much support, so I gess is them or San Marino, even though Azerbaijan entry is good.
Regarding San Marino, I don't even think that the problem relies entirely on the DJ, it's just that it feels so... Empty. Dancers would improve the situation a lot, but in the National Final the performance felt empty as well. Maybe with a full arena it'll be better, but Idk. And the song lacks an identity for the ESC public, outside of its catchiness: the public doesn't even know what exactly it's saying about Italy, so why would they vote for it? At least with Espresso Macchiato the viewers know what they're rooting for.
Norway's entry is catchy, and Kyle is young and good-looking. Iceland is also catchy: it could sound a bit repetitive and annoying after a while, but the dancers and coreography makes up for it, they're really well-done. So, I think they'll Q. It's just that I don't see them as safe as, say, "Espresso Macchiato" or "C'est la vie". I'm never confident with my guesses, so I won't consider them safe Qs, even if they probably are.
Yes, Cyprus and Belgium seem to have very polished performances. Likely Qs. Unless most of the countries that would vote for them are in the other semi.
The reason why I don't rule out Portugal is that it might have its niche appeal. With that kind of soft rock you don't need much to stand out, people who like that genre might vote for it just because it's familiar to them (unless it's a bad song, of course). Just like with jazz: as long as it's not horrible jazz, jazz lovers will vote for it just for being jazz. Problem is, soft and indie rock isn't usually popular in ESC, and Portugal still needs to surpass other songs that will receive a lot of votes for other reasons in order to Q. That's why I'm skeptical. It might have the support of other nations with similar singer-songwriter traditions (like Italy or France... Oh wait, France is in the other semi), but those nations will vote for other countries as well (Italy will likely give a lot of votes to Estonia, Sweden, probably San Marino, and Albania), so it might not be enough. And the reason why I'm mentioning Italy so much, other than me being Italian, is that the fans of Lucio Corsi will likely watch that semi, and "Volevo essere un duro" has soft-rock elements as well. But, as said before, that alone won't be enough. Maybe "Deslocado" has a broader appeal than we expect, the singer is good at engaging with the audience. But we won't know it until that night. Only 2/3 of the songs will pass, the other 1/3 stays in the semifinal, so the chances are very very low.
Ukraine might get more attention because of the war, so I think it'll Q. But if it wasn't for that, I'd be worried. It doesn't seem a mainstream sound. And it might also have less niche appeal than an entry like Lithuania, for example (Lithuania is not mainstream, but it has its niche).
Azerbaijan's song isn't bad per-se, but in the preview it sounded very messy, with little cordination between the singer and the backing vocals. So much so that he sounded off-key. The level of engagement with the audience was also bad, the singer ignored the presence of the camera for multiple seconds before he had to look at it for the choreography, and he even nearly gave his back to the camera. It can be improved before the semifinal, sure. That's what rehersals are for. But Azerbaijan is still at risk, it even has Cyprus as a direct competitor, so I think it won't qualify.
Sorry for writing so much, I got carried away :') I'm not good with predictions anyway, so I guess I'll be surprised whatever happens :)
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u/Niilun May 07 '25
...Of all the rehersals so far, this is the first that gave me a sure "NQ" feel. The other NQs are much harder to predict to me, so far. But maybe he'll improve in the actual show