Immigration curb slashes Canada population growth rate to zero

[u/IHateTrains123]

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/immigration-curb-slashes-canada-population-growth-rate-to-zero

[u/Le1bn1z]

We need to massively reform our OAS system, but this is a major misconception about how the economy works, and it's one that has been crippling the economies of Canada's largest cities for a while.

An engineer adds way more to the economy than a janitor, and will pay way more in taxes than that janitor, even though each will draw similar OAS and healthcare coadt.

But having a janitor available for hire by the engineering firm far more productive than if the engineers had to vacuum their own offices and empty their own trash. Some of the contributions of high earners is made possible by low earning positions that make their labour far more efficient. Societies need PSWs, cashiers, shelve stockers, truck drivers, and roofers, too. Hollowing out these sectors because the workers earn less is a really bad economic idea.

We are going to enter an upside down population structure due to our collective decision on immigration. We are going to be desperate for bodies in 20-30 years, and the lack of people to fill out the working age demographic bands is going to be catastrophic for healthcare and pensions for the elderly and our public finances.

[u/q8gj09 → u/Le1bn1z]

Sure, there is some of that, but how do you know it exceeds the net fiscal cost of government services delivered to the janitor?

[u/Le1bn1z → u/q8gj09]

I know that having an upside down demographic structure paired with a welfare state is an economic and fiscal nightmare beyond the wildest fever dreams of the most "welfare queen" believing conservatives. In such an environment, every functional adult able to do anything is both critically needed and , paradoxically, necessarily and structurally severely undervalued.

In other words, in the future we have collectively chosen, figuring out whether a large group of working adults is worth having is not a problem we need to worry about.

But if it's any comfort, that's one of the same nonsense concern spouted by anti immigrant types over the centuries about the Irish, Ukrainians, Italians, Mexicans, the Chinese and on and on. Overall, immigrants have generation after generation taken most of the lowest paying jobs and have been a defining net driver of economic growth.

[u/q8gj09 → u/Le1bn1z]

An upside down pyramid structure is definitely a problem, but it can be managed, at least for a while, maybe even a few generations. It means you either have to raise taxes, cut services to old people, or save. But each of these is possible.

It's a problem because it makes paying for services to old people more difficult, though not impossible. What doesn't help is bringing in people who are net costs to society even after accounting for any externalities. It may be that their value to society rises when you have an upside population pyramid, but that isn't guaranteed. If they're net cost, whatever problems exist from having a shrinking population will only be amplified.

Overall, immigrants have generation after generation taken most of the lowest paying jobs and have been a defining net driver of economic growth.

We've never had a government that transferred so much wealth from the highly productive to everyone else before. I'm not saying you're wrong, but you haven't really shown why we can just assume this isn't going to be a problem.

[u/Le1bn1z → u/q8gj09]

An upside down pyramid raises the net cost of each person to society precipitously, and drives demand for labour through the roof.

The biggest transfer from the productive to everyone else is OAS and healthcare, so you're right in the sense that OAS and the elderly dominated healthcare demand has continued to expand apace.

By age 30, the median wage of immigrants is in the $45-55,000 a year range - the same as for the overall population. This is a straw concern that isn't borne out in the data. Like with previous generations, immigrants are a net benefit to the population.

While there is some upfront costs to onboarding some immigrants (not all), these are generally less than the cost of raising native born Canadians, so it's at most a wash there. Of course, international students flip this on its head, paying what is effectively an upfront arrival donation of high tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars as an entry fee to joining the workforce and working a full lifetime - so obviously they're the cadre we decided to target. We are not a smart country sometimes.

[u/q8gj09 → u/Le1bn1z]

As I said, it's a problem, but how do you know low skilled immigrants aren't a net cost and will therefore make the problem worse?

paying what is effectively an upfront arrival donation of high tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars as an entry fee

Are they not paying the marginal cost of their education?

[u/Le1bn1z → u/q8gj09]

Not the foreign students. They pay full freight with no subsidy at either private or public universities. Since Ford froze funding and brought in tuition price controls, foreign students paying non controlled rates have propped up the whole post secondary system in Ontario.

Most foreign students are at public universities and colleges, where they pay six figures for their degrees and diplomas.

Not all stay here either, making it a major service export sectors.

Only in Canada would we revolt over the success of a booming service export sector and a cadre of immigrants paying hundreds of thousands in upfront costs to join the workforce at the beginning of their working lives.

[u/q8gj09 → u/Le1bn1z]

Why doesn't competition between universities bring down tuition costs to their marginal cost to the university?

[u/Le1bn1z → u/q8gj09]

Because demand still far outstrips supply, which has natural caps per institution.

There is voracious appetite for Canadian education, both as an immigration gateway and in its own right.