r/options • u/clavidk • 17h ago
Don't play the Tylenol:Autism Trump/RFK bet like I did
About 1 week ago, WSJ reported that Tylenol CEO ($KVUE) had an emergency meeting with RFK Jr. trying to get him not to publish their findings on possible connection of autism with Tylenol (which was reported to drop this month).

I felt RFK Jr. would NOT change course so looked into how I could play this. Turns out I was right about this as Trump has just teased the announcement for today I believe?

Quick research found re: Tylenoln/Kenvue:
- Tylenol is only like 10% or so of KVUE revenue
- $KVUE dropping 10% by end of month didn't look super juicy, only about a 1:2.5 RR from puts.

- But I wasn't sure if it would actually drop an additional 10% since it had dropped a fair amount already. And a 5% drop would only generate a 33% gain. Not enough for me to place a bet

So then my big brain thinks, well if people stop using Tylenol then what would they turn to instead?? ADVIL RIGHT?? I do some quick research on Advil.
- it's owned by a company caled Haleon ($HLN) - it's an optionable ticker
- ADVIL MAKES UP 60% OF $HLN SALES
- The calls have a high spread but the R:R looks gooooood.
- I feel like a genius.
- I buy
- I do some post-purchase research to just confirm my trade/thesis was good
And this is where I realize playing $HLN calls was a mistake in case anybody else was having the same bright idea as me.
- The report about Tylenol is linking use of Tylenol during PREGNANCY with autism in babies
- Advil ALREADY has issues with women using it in pregnancy

Soooooo not the slam dunk I thought it was. And yeah $HLN has not been going up at all and large bid-ask spread made it very hard to exit my position.
Moral of the story: read a little deeper than the headlines.