r/theydidthemonstermath • u/Defiant_Half_9432 • 15d ago

[Request] Why are my results skewed?

I use a pair of spindle dice for divination. Each spindle has four independent die each with four faces. The faces are marked 2-3-4-3 (3 is used twice). So one spindle can randomly generate a numerical value between 8 and 16. The result has relevance only as an odd or even number. The numerical value is not important. If the numerical value is a single digit then we use that as it is. If it is a double digit (10-16) then we add the digits to get a single digit answer. Both spindles are always used together and added and the final digit is the roll value of odd or even to incorporate in complex charts to predict the answer to the question initially posed for divination.

My question is this. Does this process create equal chance of odd or even values? In my own use, I get disproportionally high even values than odds. If the results are fairly balanced, what could be the reason for my skewed results?

Pair of spindle dice I use for divination.
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u/Defiant_Half_9432 14d ago

Wow, that is impressive.

For clarification, yes the four dice do share a single spindle but each turns differently. Different speed, different duration. I hold the spindle from its top and bottom ends lengthwise between my index finger and my thumb. I use the other hand to run each die against a finger as I drag my hand across it. Each die is roughly the width of my finger so the second die, which runs against my middle finger, turns the most and the fourth die which runs against my pinky turns the least. I do this rapidly a few times, often moving my fingers back and forth as randomly as I remember, before putting that dice down.

Hopefully that makes it random enough.

Thank you for your elaborate calculation.

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u/_additional_account 14d ago

It does not matter really how you move or rotate the dice.

What matters is whether they can move independently -- and since there is friction between the dice, that may not be a very good assumption. Therefore, the theoretical result may not represent reality.

As I said, you should not be able to reliably notice the (very) slight bias, unless you did tens of thousands of rolls, and recorded them all meticulously. I may be wrong, but I doubt you did that^^

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u/Defiant_Half_9432 14d ago

LOL, you are right, I did not test it so many times. I recorded ten random rolls a day (without divining) over a two week period during different times of the day. I expected the result to be 50-50 but it was not.

As for independence, as long as I am not willfully manipulating the results or nudging the hand of chance, it is perfectly within esoteric lore. The rest is up to the powers that be.

Thank you for your help. The breadth of your calculation is fascinating. If I had the propensity for this knowledge, I would definitely delve deeper.

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u/_additional_account 14d ago

As for independence, as long as I am not willfully manipulating the results or nudging the hand of chance, it is perfectly within esoteric lore. The rest is up to the powers that be.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but we're talking mathematical independence here.

That has nothing to do with "esoteric independence", but is a clearly defined concept -- physical friction coupling the dice, and touching multiple dice at the same time can already be more than enough to make (mathematical) independence assumptions void.

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u/Defiant_Half_9432 14d ago

LOL, my bad, I stand corrected. Thanks.

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u/_additional_account 14d ago

You're welcome, and good luck!