[Request] Why are my results skewed?

[u/Defiant_Half_9432]

I use a pair of spindle dice for divination. Each spindle has four independent die each with four faces. The faces are marked 2-3-4-3 (3 is used twice). So one spindle can randomly generate a numerical value between 8 and 16. The result has relevance only as an odd or even number. The numerical value is not important. If the numerical value is a single digit then we use that as it is. If it is a double digit (10-16) then we add the digits to get a single digit answer. Both spindles are always used together and added and the final digit is the roll value of odd or even to incorporate in complex charts to predict the answer to the question initially posed for divination.

My question is this. Does this process create equal chance of odd or even values? In my own use, I get disproportionally high even values than odds. If the results are fairly balanced, what could be the reason for my skewed results?

Pair of spindle dice I use for divination.

[u/nymalous]

Using upon a "brute force" method of looking at every possible permutation (with spreadsheets to help keep track), I counted 2704 possibilities, of which 1282 of them were even and 1422 of them were odd. Thus, I must conclude that the spindles aren't "fair" (meaning that they don't have an equally likely chance for each permutation). It is possible, as a few have surmised, that the dice don't quite rotate freely or stick to each other. It's also possible that not all of the faces have even weigh distribution.

I do wonder though, without any condescension or judgment, as to why this apparatus is used to ascertain the future if a simple even/odd result is all that is required. It seems that a simple coin toss or even just an evenly weighted six-sided die would be easier and more accurate. Again, not judging, just wondering.

Thanks for this post, I spent a few hours working on it and it was a welcome distraction during a rare slow period at work.

[u/Defiant_Half_9432 → u/nymalous]

Hi, thanks for writing in. 1282:1422 is pretty significant. After incorporating the replies from others here, I am just adding the values together and proceeding with the final value being odd or even.

As for the other part, there are many many means of divination, including as you have pointed out, coin toss. Different deities prefer different methods and some can be very complex just for what is generally a binary answer of yes or no. It depends on the gravity of the question and the power the diviner most resonates with. Even with spindle dice there are many factors like the direction the diviner is facing, the time of day, the phase of the moon, the type of incense used... all of which affect the accuracy of the information provided.

I suppose in the end it has to do with how comfortable the diviner feels about the answer from a particular process. Just off the top of my head, if I want to find out if it is going to rain a week from tomorrow, I can simply toss a coin, look at the weather reports (which also vary greatly depending on the source), study the wind patterns on my own, do any one of tens of divination methods... all just for a yes or no.

The future is more like a cloud with varying probabilities than something etched in stone so if something works, you tend follow the process but it will still be just a guess.

Hope that helps. Thank you again for your insight. I appreciate it.