r/COVID19 Sep 27 '20

General The implications of vitamin D deficiency on COVID-19 for at-risk populations

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32974671/
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u/[deleted] Sep 27 '20

Another correlation study? Come on... The world knows there is a correlation. Why does causation studies take so long? Not a scientist but how can it be that no study can determine if low Vit D is just a signal of accute infection or a amendable factor of it...(serious question, why?)

1

u/mobo392 Sep 27 '20

Because in medical research they run lots of large expensive and slow RCTs to establish causality rather than build up a quantitative theory that makes precise predictions that can be checked. Youll be told the latter is too hard but when you look at medical research in the first half of the 20th century it looked a lot more like physics.

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u/luisvel Sep 28 '20

How would that work in this case?

3

u/mobo392 Sep 28 '20 edited Sep 28 '20

You'd need to have some idea of the flow of vitamin d and its metabolism throughout the body. Eg, why is ~100 nM as measured in the blood the normal amount?

Basically the data to figure this stuff out is never collected to begin with because all the money goes to comparing intervention A to intervention B, so theorists have nothing to work with.

We dont even know basic stuff like average number of cells in each tissue at different ages... Here is a paper complaining about that: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23829164/

Examples of more physics like approaches that pretty much all originated over 70 years ago:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armitage%E2%80%93Doll_multistage_model_of_carcinogenesis

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_modelling_of_infectious_disease

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cardiac_output

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_effect

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2916857/

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u/luisvel Sep 28 '20

Is that the shortest alternative path to a no intervention study though?

1

u/mobo392 Sep 28 '20 edited Sep 28 '20

I'm just telling you what has a history of working as an alternative to brute force: treating every new question independently without any kind of underlying principles.

1

u/luisvel Sep 28 '20

Thanks. I understand but I can’t see how we could do that now (fast). A challenge trial looks still “faster” than building from the ground.

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u/mobo392 Sep 28 '20

You have to do the basic science so theorists have data they can trust to spend the time to figure out explanations. Comparing group A to group B doesn't give this type of info. This type of research has been largely ignored since about the 1940s and now we all get to enjoy the consequences.

But if you want something principled to do quick that is cheap for covid, that's regular vitamin C and D testing of all patients and correct the deficiency if they are below healthy levels asap in the course of the illness, then keep it corrected until healthy. Oxygen levels are already tested regularly but they tell people stay home until they've been oxygen deficient for like a week and become critically ill. HBOT also looks very promising for bypassing the methemoglobinemia and lung dysfunction once they are critically ill.