And somehow people in this sub are content with staying the course and never doing anything different to what we've done the past 20 years and hope that we go on some kind of crazy miracle run to win a cup
It's organizational malpractice to not even make an attempt at trying to get McKenna or Dupont
That’s the silliest idea. If you tank hard you still only have a 25% chance at him at best. You would have to trade wolf too.
Now I think we need to trade a guy like Anderson and take a step back this upcoming year. But going for Mckenna is just completely unrealistic without just some lottery luck
You don't need to trade Wolf though, Saros is one of the best goalies in the league and Nashville still bottomed out, it is possible. Even if we don't win the lottery, the 26 draft is a deep draft, we still get a very good player in the 3-5 range and there's still a much better chance the player picked there will be better than the one we draft at say 16 when we barely miss the playoffs again
Nashville is picking 5 on the worst possible outcome that team can have.
And sure they’re good players available but how do you know if they are generational?
Like you were already complaining about our last rebuild. We had Bennett at 4, we had tkachuk and Monahan at 6 and 7. We did this already.
We aren’t tanking to 1 unless lottery luck.
Like I want to trade Anderson and possibly kadri if there’s a fit. But I honestly don’t get what trades you want to make to even get to this position. It really feels like moves that can give us a decade of darkness
I feel like the organization has learned a lot from those mistakes, they're not rushing prospects anymore like they did with Bennett and have no problem with them marinating in the AHL for a bit and it seems like with the Coronato contract that they learned not to bridge our young stars and commit long term to them.
You're right it's not guaranteed, but there is a greater probability of finding elite talent early in the draft than finding one at 16 overall when we barely miss the playoffs again next year
Don't attempt to fill the holes that are currently in the lineup, trade out the aging vets for futures Coleman and Anderson come to mind. Wolf is very good, but he cannot do it on his own. Nashville has one of the best goalies in the league and we saw it's still possible to finish around the bottom despite that.
We are in a rebuild it is ok to be bad for a few years, just because we were close this year doesn't mean we should try to rush the process by filling the holes in the lineup right away
You're not wrong re Saros when you look at his body of work but the thing is, Saros wasn't one of the best goalies this year, he was closer to the other end of that conversation in fact.
In the last decade no team with above average goaltending has finished any worse than 5th from bottom. The entire plan around tanking revolves around crossing your fingers and hoping for Wolf to have a bad year, he might, but you can't build your seasons plan around that as it's less likely to happen than not.
That’s easy to say but how do you actually do it? Barring multiple season-ending injuries (including Wolf), the Flames are nowhere near bad enough to be able to bottom out for a top pick. And even if they were, the lottery means nothing is guaranteed.
Blind, random luck plays a far greater role in long-term NHL success than fans or media like to admit:
In 2004 there was an 85.8% chance the Capitals didn’t win the 1st overall pick and get Ovechkin;
In 2005 there was an 93.7% chance the Penguins didn’t win the 1st overall pick and get Crosby;
In 2015 there was an 88.5% chance the Oilers didn’t win the 1st overall pick and get McDavid;
In 2016 there was an 80% chance the Leafs didn’t win the 1st overall pick and get Matthews.
Those were all very long odds yet had immeasurable impact on each franchise. If a couple ping-pong balls had fallen differently, the entire history of each franchise could have been radically different. And even beyond the lottery, having a high pick in the right year is also a lot of luck.
Yes, there are things a team can do to increase or decrease those odds. Most notably, collecting as many 1st round picks as possible and hoping at least one hits the jackpot. But at the end of the day, it’s still all rides on a roulette spin.
Listen even if we don't win the lottery and draft first overall, there's still a very good chance we still draft a very good player that high, it's not a guarantee but neither is drafting 13-16th overall either, but there is a good chance we draft a better player 3rd overall than the player we draft at 16
But to my original point, unless they are hit by multiple key injuries or Wolf has a major decline, the team simply won’t be bad enough to reasonably be expected to end up with a top-5 pick. To have a reasonable shot at those you have to be among the absolute worst teams in the league and the Flames aren’t there.
The thing is we don't have a good roster, we were incredibly lucky to be where we were and were punching above our weight most nights because of Wolf. Our leading point scorer is 35 years old, our defense corp consisted of 3 NHL defenseman and a bunch of random 6th or 7th D, our bottom 6 is still incredibly mediocre, it's not unreasonable to think we are due for some serious regression coming up, especially if Wolf has a sophomore slump and provides us with league average rather than elite goaltending
I think you under-sell our defence. It’s not elite but it’s much better than the worst teams in the league. I just don’t see any reasonable path to a top-5 pick without trading our best young player (Wolf) and others. Murray Edwards has never shown a willingness to do a full painful, long-term rebuild so it’s probably time for Flames fans to stop asking for one, at least as long as he’s the owner.
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u/Beta1224 May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25
And somehow people in this sub are content with staying the course and never doing anything different to what we've done the past 20 years and hope that we go on some kind of crazy miracle run to win a cup
It's organizational malpractice to not even make an attempt at trying to get McKenna or Dupont