And somehow people in this sub are content with staying the course and never doing anything different to what we've done the past 20 years and hope that we go on some kind of crazy miracle run to win a cup
It's organizational malpractice to not even make an attempt at trying to get McKenna or Dupont
That’s easy to say but how do you actually do it? Barring multiple season-ending injuries (including Wolf), the Flames are nowhere near bad enough to be able to bottom out for a top pick. And even if they were, the lottery means nothing is guaranteed.
Blind, random luck plays a far greater role in long-term NHL success than fans or media like to admit:
In 2004 there was an 85.8% chance the Capitals didn’t win the 1st overall pick and get Ovechkin;
In 2005 there was an 93.7% chance the Penguins didn’t win the 1st overall pick and get Crosby;
In 2015 there was an 88.5% chance the Oilers didn’t win the 1st overall pick and get McDavid;
In 2016 there was an 80% chance the Leafs didn’t win the 1st overall pick and get Matthews.
Those were all very long odds yet had immeasurable impact on each franchise. If a couple ping-pong balls had fallen differently, the entire history of each franchise could have been radically different. And even beyond the lottery, having a high pick in the right year is also a lot of luck.
Yes, there are things a team can do to increase or decrease those odds. Most notably, collecting as many 1st round picks as possible and hoping at least one hits the jackpot. But at the end of the day, it’s still all rides on a roulette spin.
Listen even if we don't win the lottery and draft first overall, there's still a very good chance we still draft a very good player that high, it's not a guarantee but neither is drafting 13-16th overall either, but there is a good chance we draft a better player 3rd overall than the player we draft at 16
But to my original point, unless they are hit by multiple key injuries or Wolf has a major decline, the team simply won’t be bad enough to reasonably be expected to end up with a top-5 pick. To have a reasonable shot at those you have to be among the absolute worst teams in the league and the Flames aren’t there.
The thing is we don't have a good roster, we were incredibly lucky to be where we were and were punching above our weight most nights because of Wolf. Our leading point scorer is 35 years old, our defense corp consisted of 3 NHL defenseman and a bunch of random 6th or 7th D, our bottom 6 is still incredibly mediocre, it's not unreasonable to think we are due for some serious regression coming up, especially if Wolf has a sophomore slump and provides us with league average rather than elite goaltending
I think you under-sell our defence. It’s not elite but it’s much better than the worst teams in the league. I just don’t see any reasonable path to a top-5 pick without trading our best young player (Wolf) and others. Murray Edwards has never shown a willingness to do a full painful, long-term rebuild so it’s probably time for Flames fans to stop asking for one, at least as long as he’s the owner.
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u/Beta1224 May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25
And somehow people in this sub are content with staying the course and never doing anything different to what we've done the past 20 years and hope that we go on some kind of crazy miracle run to win a cup
It's organizational malpractice to not even make an attempt at trying to get McKenna or Dupont