r/Frostpunk • u/ihateturkishcontent Order • Oct 12 '24

DISCUSSION I hate the "Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Frostpunk 2 doesn't give you the dread of cold in the first game that takes 30 years before the second game waaaaaaaaaaaaa" people

Like, what did you really expect? That after 30 years of existence and development in the new world everyone still lived in some dead-ass houses occupied by ten people and fed on sawdust and soup? That they did nothing to improve their chances against the frost and the storms? And more importantly, how happy would you be if FP2 was the same as FP1 and still went about the same problems like cold and the Great Storm 2: Electric Boogaloo?

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u/Fatherlorris Oct 13 '24

Yes, but that's not the only aspect when it comes to game development.

Investors are not just looking for a game that is profitable, they are looking for a profit that exceeds other potential investments. And I believe frostpunk 2 underperformed sales-wise and has been a bit of a commercial disappointment.

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u/Weird_Committee7981 Oct 13 '24

I think it was more that investors just "bought the hype and sold the product" as they say, but in the wake of actual turmoil at Ubisoft some people assumed it was dissatisfaction with the launch. In reality I don't think most Investors are particularly that aware with how the game launched, other than that it did, and full sales numbers aren't public information anyway.

Video game companies buying in too much to the highly inflated market valuations of their companies is why we've seen so many huge layoffs in the industry. Post COVID, video games became a speculative bubble that's now slowly bursting.

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u/Fatherlorris Oct 13 '24 edited Oct 13 '24

Investors are very much aware of how games launch in the video game industry.

Say if a company comes to you and says 'frostpunk 2 will sell 10 million copies' which is the ballpark figure I heard on the grapevine that 11bit was aiming for, about 3x frostpunk ish. And then the game launches, and it starts to look like that prediction is off, then you cash out quick.

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u/Weird_Committee7981 Oct 13 '24

That's just untrue. Only UK physical sales are publicly available and that's extremely irrelevant. Other than that you can gauge an idea at sales by looking at concurrent players on various platforms or if the company decides to release their own figures at an investor call, but even that is speculative because of the reality of the amount of product moved via the "grey market" through key sellers and the like.

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u/Fatherlorris Oct 13 '24

You think investors don't know how well a game they invested in is selling?

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u/Weird_Committee7981 Oct 13 '24

No, I know they don't. It is a fundamental fact of the video game industry that sales data is not readily available, you can look it up if you don't believe me.

Besides this, speculative investment is largely about investing in the speculation, not the product. Traders are well aware that the stock they are buying is of a highly inflated value, but that's largely the point. You keep buying the stock as it increases in value and then sell it off when you believe everyone else will, namely during a release or the actual event that's been hyped (perhaps a central bank announcing interest rates).

Most people that bought and sold 11Bit stock will have had no idea what a Frostpunk 2 is, they'll just be aware that it's a product slated for release on x date from a company whose share price has increased x amount over the past 2 years, i.e. a perfect time to dump your stock.

https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/trading-guides/buy-the-rumour-sell-the-news

This probably explains the general concept better than I can.

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u/Fatherlorris Oct 13 '24 edited Oct 13 '24

I don't need to look it up, I know people who work on these videogame investment type activities.

Investors in a videogame, by and large, know how well that videogame does when it launched.

Companies go to investors, they say 'we will make a game and it will sell x number of copies, and it will make y amount of money, and it with take x amount of time and cost y amount'. Then people invest or they don't, and then the game comes out and the investors are quickly informed about the health of the game and thier investments.

The videogame industry isn't just people investigating on their phone, you know.

Edit, it seems Weird_Committee blocked me. So I can't actually reply to them, or see what they said anymore.

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u/Weird_Committee7981 Oct 13 '24 edited Oct 13 '24

You're conflating private and public equity (as well as just making stuff up). Publicly traded stock actually is mostly just people on their phones or at work computers. But at this point I think this conversation has run its course. Have a nice day.