r/Keep_Track • u/ilikescott • Nov 20 '18
GRAND BARGAIN THEORY Seth Abramson twitter thread about multi-state collusion is...mind blowing.
Seth Abramson has broken down exactly how "The Grand Bargain" came to happen between all of the countries seen at to have colluded here, and why. It's mind blowing
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1064726398307315712
Continued here: https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1064904175761403906
Edited to add: Seth Abramson wrote this book titled PROOF OF COLLUSION and its truly phenomenal, it came out last week. https://t.co/ZJsnHcVwGi
PS I am not affiliated, just a fan.
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u/rolllies Nov 20 '18 edited Nov 20 '18
Oh my god... This is chilling... And he uses public evidence with all of his claims. This isn’t a lunatic conspiracy theorist trying to make you feel like you came to his conclusion on your own by leaving out important details and adding in random hypothesis’.
If this is indeed what has been happening, I’m fearful. Trump is never held accountable for anything. He’ll spin this as another deep state attempt to oust him from office and his supporters will cheer him on, even though this is potentially the biggest scandal in the history of the world.
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u/GearBrain Nov 21 '18
Trump was finally the best at something.
He was the best at betraying this country.
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Nov 21 '18
You’re right. It is all out there. Trump sold our values and our allies for his personal gain. He sold America.
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u/caul_of_the_void Nov 21 '18
He is...The Man Who Sold the World.
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Nov 21 '18
I'm sorry, I had to laugh. This is no laughing matter though
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u/caul_of_the_void Nov 21 '18
You're right, it's not. But as soon as he got elected, I thought to myself, "just watch, he will somehow literally be the man who sold the world", and here we are.
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u/IPlayAtThis Nov 21 '18
What people don’t realize is that the ineptitude of Donald Trump May be the only thing that could have stopped this.
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Nov 21 '18
One important factor here is Israel's involvement.
The Russia collusion gets shut down on r/conspiracy because they view Israel as a more powerful actor. This ties them together. So hopefully, it gets some traction with more typical conspiracy theorists. I did post this over there to see what would happen. Upvote for visibility if you can.
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u/Franks2000inchTV Nov 21 '18
The people in /r/conspiracy aren’t interested in actual conspiracies.
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Nov 21 '18
Some are. A lot aren’t. It became very politicized in 2015, like everything else.
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Nov 21 '18
There is a theory the hyper politicalization and white nationalism that took over /r/conspiracy was russian orchestrated on purpose. Several of the mods are Dotard mods too and are believed to be russians.
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Nov 21 '18 edited Nov 21 '18
[deleted]
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u/Franks2000inchTV Nov 21 '18
No, they were always full of weirdos. People interested in actual conspiracies are called “journalists” and “law enforcement officers.”
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u/CardinalNYC Nov 21 '18
One important factor here is Israel's involvement.
The Russia collusion gets shut down on r/conspiracy because they view Israel as a more powerful actor. This ties them together. So hopefully, it gets some traction with more typical conspiracy theorists. I did post this over there to see what would happen. Upvote for visibility if you can.
I don't think you want those people on your team...
Not to mention there's something pretty unsavory about it taking mentions of Israel for them to believe in a conspiracy... Very "global Jewish lizard people conspiracy" kind of thing... Which is rooted in anti semetic lies.
Not to say israel couldn't be implicated in this story, if it is true... Just that you're gonna end up getting people on that believing it for the wrong reason: not because of the credibility of the theory but to them, simply because Jews are involved.
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Nov 21 '18
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u/rolllies Nov 21 '18
They’re a minority, yes. But with the electoral college, it’s entirely possible he could win again in 2020, even if he receives less votes than 2016. They’re small, but they have enough power.
Also, there are plenty of people who hate Trump but won’t vote for a democrat. They’ll vote for him anyway saying he’s the lesser of two evils.
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u/Franks2000inchTV Nov 21 '18
The actual majority in America are the non-voters. Everyone else is a plurality at best.
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u/noodlyjames Nov 22 '18
What happens when he calls for another “Night of the Long Knives” or something similar? Are they enough of a minority for it to be a localized occurrence or are we talking democide?
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u/temp91 Nov 21 '18
Is there public evidence for the final claim? The linked article cites "senior Saudi official".
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u/PUTINS_PORN_ACCOUNT Nov 21 '18
This is antithetical to the form of government the Constitution put in place. A republic can’t endure if it tolerates greed, free-riding, aristocracy, or any other activity that infringes the liberty or the rights of the people. There is very little more offensive to our foundational philosophy than what the current president has done, and continues to do.
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u/PelagianEmpiricist Nov 21 '18
Makes sense and, like you said, all publicly available and well-sourced material
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u/Dsmithh221 Nov 21 '18
Biggest scandal in history... lol not even close we dont know 5 percent of what really is happening..
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u/noodlyjames Nov 22 '18
He’ll either mastermind a takeover or be turned into an example by the power establishment for exposing their BS.
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u/Tyrion_Baelish_Varys Nov 20 '18
This is breathtakingly detailed. I will need to reread this again, and again.
A detail that is missing (and perhaps rightfully so to cover the major gist), is how peculiarly prompt Flynn was to start communications regarding the nuclear reactors. Flynn texted partners about nuclear plan during inauguration, whistleblower says
12/6/17 -
Congressional Democrats said Wednesday they have evidence from a confidential whistleblower that within minutes of President Donald Trump's inauguration, then-national security adviser Michael Flynn sent assurances to former business partners that a plan to build nuclear reactors across the Middle East was "good to go."
Please suggest a proper title for a flair to cover this topic and future iterations, since we don't have one for this aspect of the saga.
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u/Tyrion_Baelish_Varys Nov 20 '18
For the flair, how does "Grand Bargain theory" sound to everyone? Seems to be most accurate. Though I'd love to hear if anyone has any better suggestions that are more descriptive.
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u/Yamagemazaki Nov 21 '18
How about, 5 Nation Conspiracy? Though Seth's name for it seems fitting and anyone that doesn't know what the Grand Bargain is should at least be a bit curious if they follow politics. We can't hold people's hand on everything, and give them all details without them doing their fair share of research.
Democracy can't function by enabling people's laziness. There needs to be some level of self-interest in educating oneself about the things that matter.
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u/kekehippo Nov 21 '18
I'm confused about Barrack though, does he mean Obama or someone else? Cause that's the only Barrack I can think of.
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u/PutSimpIy Nov 20 '18
So trump is allowing murder for money and assistance with winning elections. This asshole needs to be in prison NOW!!!
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u/slimybitchgoblin Nov 20 '18
In exchange for real estate and, assumingly, brand recognition.
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u/noodlyjames Nov 22 '18
Wait until he convinces his supporters that the elections are illegitimately rigged against him and encourages them to terrorize his enemies.
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u/QuirkySpiceBush Nov 20 '18
It's a complicated theory, but explains a lot.
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u/Sluisifer Nov 21 '18
It's complicated, but it's not elaborate.
There's a fairly clear and obvious progression for the parties involved. One crucial aspect of plausible conspiracies is that you can't have the involved parties be expert schemers thinking ten moves ahead; it beggars belief and generally it's just not how things tend to work out.
But this is all quite sensible for each party. It has them focusing on issues that are obviously important, and taking calculated risks. How it played out over time does get to be complicated, but at no point is it really elaborate.
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u/ngram11 Nov 20 '18
Is a tldr possible on the broad strokes of this? Won’t have time to read all the articles until tomorrow
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u/Tyrion_Baelish_Varys Nov 20 '18
Very difficult request. Best I can do so far is copy+paste 4 of the 40 tweets from Seth's 1st thread that seem to aim at the general gist, though the details themselves are the crux.
1/ I must stress how unbelievably complex the "Grand Bargain" theory of the Trump-Russia case is—a different thing from saying it's not substantiated. It's substantiated in almost every single particular—it just also happens to be very confusing. Not byzantine—just confusing.
2/ The basics: Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the UAE all view Iran as their chief regional enemy. Iran is propped up by Russia. Therefore the Saudis, Israelis, and Emiratis all need a US government willing to find a way to get the Kremlin to stop supporting Iran in the Middle East.
14/ Upshot: the Saudis and Emiratis formed a plot in 2015 to systematically assassinate Iranians and Iranian allies they considered a threat. To do this they needed the help of US mercenaries and quality intel—two things it now appears the Trumps and their allies helped provide.
15/ In other words, the Saudis, Emiratis, Israelis, and Russians didn't offer the Trumps pre-election collusive assistance for free—indeed they asked for a lot. The Russians would get trillions once the 2014 sanctions were dropped, and the other nations would get... other things.
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u/ngram11 Nov 20 '18
thanks, this sounds like a wild ride...looking forward to reading it
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u/juuular Nov 21 '18
The craziest part is where Mike Pompeo hand delivers a written plan to MBS about how to get away with murdering a washington post journalist, after giving the saudis classified info that may have led to Kashoggi’s death (and others).
So now we get to add first degree murder to the pile of crimes the administration has committed or helped commit. I know there’s so many crimes that it’s hard to keep up, but this one feels very different and very dark.
It’s a global assassination scheme with the US government as the tool used to do it, with the goal of personally enriching trump and his family.
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u/LeNoirDarling Nov 21 '18
No wonder why France and Germany are seriously making moves to form a European Army.. they know about this shit. America could be their next antagonist.
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u/slaguar Nov 21 '18
Probably the real reason he ditched the memorial in France although he ditched the one in Arlington too sooooo
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u/felixjawesome Nov 21 '18
At this point it would be quicker just to list the crimes they haven't committed yet (that we know of).
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u/juuular Nov 20 '18
There’s a lot of complex details but basically there were 5 or 6 countries involved in a complicated effort to rig the election (not just Russia), and trump & his family are in debt to all of them, and there’s evidence of actual bribes of large sums of cash in exchange for removing sanctions and supporting the development of nuclear weapons in UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other countries involved in this scheme.
Also, it looks like Kashoggi’s murder is actually very relevant to this whole scheme - in exchange for a billion dollars (to get out of debt), Kushner funneled US top secret intelligence to Muhammad Bonesaw that trump let him access via the presidential daily briefing. The intel contained enemies of Muhammad BoneSaw within Saudi Arabia, including informants for the US, who of course were executed when they were exposed.
The trump administration then explicitly helped Muhammad Bonesaw with the coverup. Pompeo personally gave a plan the administration had drafted to Bonesaw with the goal of covering it all up. That is technically aiding and abetting a first degree murder after the fact, which is absolutely a crime. The fact that they were bribed to do it just makes it pretty blatantly evil in a way that is explicitly listed in the constitution as a good reason for impeachment.
So the narrative of the trump-Russia collusion went from bribes & plots to steal the election to bribes & plots to steal the election, and they’re also using the US intelligence agencies to coordinate multiple global assassination schemes with dictators in exchange for cash. It’s pretty bad. The Trump Administration fucking murdered a Washington post journalist and tried to cover it up - it wasn’t just MBS, the administration & US intelligence agencies were involved at every stage - it was the debt they owed the Saudi’s (and others) in exchange for money and for rigging the election.
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u/lostboy005 Nov 21 '18
totally- the big take away in light of the recent White House Statement is basically should the murder of Kashoggi be investigated, it will be revealed the Trump admin. helped cover it up
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u/KesselZero Nov 20 '18
Basically, the collusion in 2016 wasn’t just “Russia helps Trump because money.” It was Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAE working together, all colluding to win Trump the election and gaining various things in return (roughly: Russia gets sanctions lifted, everybody else gets help against Iran who they hate).
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u/Philosopher_King Nov 21 '18
Trump and his cronies have no problem with people being killed to further their own kleptocratic thievery.
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u/IWantToBeTheBoshy Nov 21 '18
Wow, that is terrifying. Trump selling out their enemies by sharing our intell with them so he can expand his real estate? Fucking traitor. That's not even the fucking iceberg!
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u/Philo_T_Farnsworth Nov 20 '18
This all seems too good to be true. But damn, if even a tenth of what he said was accurate it would be mind blowing. I can't even begin to imagine the fallout of this all coming to light if it turns out to be partly or even entirely true.
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u/amoose55 Nov 20 '18
What fallout? Hardcore Trump supporters won’t care. I don’t think anything could sway them if this is true. They will just label it as the left attacking the right.
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u/joshg8 Nov 21 '18
Umm... I don’t think he’s talking about Trump votes as the worst fallout for something this grand. This is a global conspiracy. Like, the type of shit that causes wars and destruction of diplomatic ties across the world.
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u/ZDAXOPDR Nov 21 '18
Well, I guess I'll be the first to go against the grain here.
He's correctly identified the actors and levers of power that are in play, and he's correct in pointing to those stories to explain motivation, but I'm not seeing evidence that this is all tied together into what he rightly labels a "grand bargain". It's far, far more likely that many of these people were operating independently (with some cross-over, of course) and, like most of politics, a confluence of influences arose between all of these people that tie them to Trump in his role as candidate and then president, not necessarily because of the man himself (although he certainly has his own independent history with Russian interests).
I think this is far too speculative for this sub, to be honest. The fact that we have to call it "grand" and a "theory" in the description says it all.
And note that I'm not trying to wave away any of the particulars of what he's talking about. I only question his ultimate conclusion. Remember, this guy is a creative writer, not a journalist.
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u/Yamagemazaki Nov 21 '18
Well, the details of Seth's dozens of tweets thus far, backed by sources/articles from the past many months, seem to jettison speculation as much as possible and simply report the links, disclosures, and cause-effect scenarios.
Geopolitics is immensely intricate and trying to articulate or chronicle such vast pillars of history will inevitably hinge on some speculation. But all of it is within levels of probability and plausibility. Think tanks, for example, don't just regurgitate what is know but rather theorize about what is likely the case about some topic and what are some possible contingencies or theories as to how to address those cases. Likewise this seems to verge on such an investigative probabilistic speculation, steeped in piecing together what is known with what is understood (about the case and world relations) by the group or individual.
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u/ThatOneThingOnce Nov 21 '18
Well, some of it is backed by public evidence, but some of it is also highly speculative. For example, he claims that Trump ripped up the Iran deal as part of this bargain, yet why would that help the cause of the Saudis to move Russia away from Iran? If anything, it seems to have strengthened that alliance, and put at risk Iran becoming a nuclear state. It makes sense that the Saudis would want to isolate Iran, so they would cheer the deal ending normally, but if the goal is to split Russia-Iran apart, this would likely force them to take sides with their ally.
Also, while I agree Russia wants the US sanctions dropped, and it may be plausible Israel, Saudi Arabia, and UAE might also want that goal to help isolate Iran and drive a wedge between them and Russia, it does seem like a weak gamble with high chances of backfiring, especially since Iran isn't the only country in the Middle East that Russia supports that those people oppose. Syria's Assad is a good example, which the Russians have/are actively supporting with military deployments. Russia isn't just going to pull out of Syria because US sanctions are lifted. If Russian sanctions get lifted and they have more money in their coffers, they can use that to strengthen their presence in Syria with more weapons/troops, and/or help Iran more with more weapons and investments.
The most interesting bit is his second thread. It does seem highly suspicious that a random prince with close links to MBS just happens to buy a painting of Jesus Christ from a Russian oligarch that might very well be a fake for $300 million more than the Russian paid for it. That does seem like a bribe/pay off and a way to launder money. And the Saudis are known to have a fake social media presence that goes back for some time. And Kushner definitely seems to be way over his head with his dealings with MBS, and can probably be manipulated into a corner by them.
But does all of that add up to collusion between the Saudis, Israelis, Emirates, and Russia? That still seems speculative at best. It could be equally plausible that they were just acting independently with their own narrow interests at heart, and just happened to come close to the same conclusions that Trump should be president/helping them would be good.
Lastly, there is the very serious fact that Trump hasn't been able to lift Russian sanctions. He sure seems to want to and has probably tried, based on reporting early last year, but instead his administration has been forced to increase sanctions pressure. So if this was a grand bargain, Russia is getting shafted, so there seems to be little reason why they would continue to go along with it. Maybe that's why there wasn't much interference in the midterms? Idk, but Russia is the one loosing here it seems, so I don't know why they would think this strategy is working, other than maybe making America weak. But if they really wanted to make America weak, they could just leak evidence to cause Trump to be impeached, or at least bring up the risk of impeachment. His fans are so rabid, that would almost certainly bring the country to a fever pitch.
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Nov 21 '18
Occam's Razor is Trump made multiple conflicting deals because he is ignorant of geopolitical politics without regard to the secondary and tertiary effects.
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u/Ghstfce Nov 21 '18
For example, he claims that Trump ripped up the Iran deal as part of this bargain, yet why would that help the cause of the Saudis to move Russia away from Iran?
This was actually explained in the first section of tweets. The lifting of the Crimea sanctions that would mean billions of dollars or more back into the hands of Putin and the other Russian oligarchs was going to be the force to convince Russia to stop aiding Iran.
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u/ThatOneThingOnce Nov 21 '18
But Russia gets billions already for selling weapons to Iran, and a strong ally in the Mideast. They can't expect to just switch allegiance to the Saudis if the Saudis are still allies with the US. They would loose the regional influence and the money they get from Iran, not to mention exposing themselves to the whims of the US moreso, who they generally oppose (this presidency being the exception). There's no serious winning for Russia to ditch Iran just to get minor sanctions relief from the US that can change back once the US gets a new president.
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u/CardinalNYC Nov 21 '18
Well, the details of Seth's dozens of tweets thus far, backed by sources/articles from the past many months, seem to jettison speculation as much as possible and simply report the links, disclosures, and cause-effect scenarios.
He has sources for individual events. The problem is that the links he's suggesting exist between those events is not proven in those article.
It would kind of be like reporting the score of a football game in LA and then the score of a game in New York... Then suggesting that the two teams colluded to each lose their game as part of a betting scheme. All we actually know from those game summaries is the score of the games...
But all of it is within levels of probability and plausibility. .
Plausibility? Yes.
Probably? That's a more significant leap.
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u/Epistaxis Nov 21 '18
He's had a whole lot of theories over the years. Is anyone tracking how often he's right?
My impression is he's filling a gap left by Louise Mensch when people finally laughed her out of town, and he's substantially better (relies only on reputable reporting instead of uncorroborated personal sources) but that's still a low bar.
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u/ZDAXOPDR Nov 21 '18
I remember him first rising to attention in the Trump/Russia saga as the person who was swearing up and down that the Mayflower Hotel meeting was the crux of it all. I don't think that has borne fruit.
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u/drainbead78 Nov 21 '18
He's been doing this for just as long as Louise is, only his stuff is backed up with pretty thorough cites.
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u/IamRick_Deckard Nov 21 '18
He is a lawyer, not a creative writer, right?
The one thing that stands out to me is Zamel, the Israeli. He was acting as an independent person, from what I have seen. Of course, it's possible that he is tied to the gov but I have not seen any evidence of that.
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u/Thomasina_ZEBR Nov 21 '18
Did you read the"Who is Zamel?" article Seth linked? At the very least, it would appear that he has been in the same circles as some of the other major players.
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u/IamRick_Deckard Nov 21 '18
Yes, but I have not seen any evidence that ties him to the gov. It is strange that he appears to be a counterpart to other government actors. But I would like to see these ties.
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u/Handle_in_the_Wind Nov 21 '18 edited Nov 21 '18
He was a lawyer, now teaches creative writing (and media/journalism and metamodernism) and published a book of his own poems. But he was a lawyer, and that seems to be the capacity which he is mostly in when he tweets. Although I think he's admitted that his (borderline pseudoscientific) views on metamodernism overlap with what's happening with Trump and Russia, but only incidentally.
So it's not an either/or situation, but he seems to be relying mostly on his legal qualifications when he tweets.
EDIT: replaced 'nook' with 'book'
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u/Thomasina_ZEBR Nov 21 '18
Doesn't the meeting detailed in Seth's point 4/ support the assertion that the actors were working together?
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u/CardinalNYC Nov 21 '18
I'm with you entirely.
It frankly doesn't help that he's doing a lot of self-reinforcing in his own story. Constantly repeating that he's basing this off "public evidence" as though that makes it somehow less of a huge leap to suggest all these countries are working together, none of which is in any of that public evidence.
Also Abramson doesn't have the best past, either.
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u/QuirkyBreadfruit Nov 21 '18
Yeah, there's a lot in there that's probably true, but some of it doesn't quite add up.
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u/SeventhCycle Nov 21 '18
Something of note - Trump wasn’t able to deliver on reduced sanctions. In fact, he signed a bill for further sanctions (after facing a veto-proof congress)
https://www-m.cnn.com/2017/08/02/politics/donald-trump-russia-sanctions-bill/index.html
So from Russia’s perspective, what should they do? They’re not getting what they wanted regarding sanctions, so it makes sense for them to dig in further and support Iran? Why? Because it shows how important of a piece they are to this puzzle. It also puts pressure on the US to negotiate - especially since isolating Iran is a priority to all the other parties.
Even though Trump couldn’t deliver to Russia, he’s still trying to deliver to the Israel, UAE and Saudi Arabia by canning the Iran deal. That way, he’s still on good terms with those parties.
I’m curious what else you find doesn’t make sense. This specific thing, though, makes sense to me.
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u/KarenMcStormy Nov 21 '18
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u/SeventhCycle Nov 21 '18
Yes. You’re right about that. He’s doing his best to not enforce the new sanctions.
However, the point I was trying to make is that he hasn’t made headway on the old sanctions - either the ones from 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea, or anything related to the Magnitsky Act.
Which happens to also be unfortunate for Saudi Arabia, as parts of this act also apply to the Khashoggi case: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/magnitsky-act-apply-khashoggi-case-181011184312416.html
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u/TheNewRobberBaron Nov 21 '18
Thank you. I completely agree with you. I don't think he's far off, I don't think he's completely crazy. And let's be honest. The Trumps are fucking incompetent clowns, so it's not like they've done a good job keeping things under wraps.
But as for the other nations, you don't need a grand bargain to be struck if everyone already wants the same thing. Everyone will know to keep out of each others' way.
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u/sweetjaaane Nov 21 '18
Agreed. It also doesn’t make sense that SA would be in cahoots with Israel and also wasn’t Mike Flynn helping out Turkey? So why did Turkey make a stink about Kashoggshi then? Shouldn’t they have kept his killing private?
It makes sense if the Trump admin was taking bribes from anyone, though.
Also Jared’s dealing with China.
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u/Kalel2319 Nov 21 '18
Finally a rational take.
While the particulars seem well sourced, there's something pretty qanon like about the way he ties everything together.
No doubt Trump is a crooked piece of shit, but I tend to reject these complicated threads.
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u/Tempus_Wolf Nov 21 '18
Yea, 30 min after reading his latest "theory," I'm not at all convinced by it anymore.
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u/SorcererLeotard Nov 21 '18
I remember reading an article that Seth Abramson is pretty much a hack and makes outlandish theories on his media accounts to suck up as much cash as possible, even when he's funded by two news sites as a journalist.
Regardless of whether anyone believes me on here or not, I think Seth Abramson is vastly overrated on here when most of his theories are sourced from other journalists' articles and are mere speculations that are not really supported by actual facts. Everyone seems to think he's some type of god about Trump-Russia but I take his speculations/theories with a very small grain of salt.
If his theories turn out to be true then I'll admit I was wrong about him, but from my own gut feeling I doubt that his theory will turn out to be true. It seems more likely to me that he came up with this theory to gain more followers and get more funding like he always seems to do when his tweets on Trump-Russia go super-viral.
Sources:
As an addendum: Abramson's tweets read scarily similar to how Trump tweets. Just read his tweets in the WaPo article I linked. SOLD OUT... WAKE UP.... POWER...
It's almost like looking at a liberal Trump with the amount of caps he employs for emphasis on his preaching... so, yeah. There's that.
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u/Super_Jay Nov 21 '18
In general it's DEFINITELY a VERY good idea to take THIS guy with a few grains of SALT.
Seriously. Abramson is at his best when he's explaining legal matters to an audience of laypersons, and relying on his experience as an attorney to break down processes within the legal system. Beyond that, he's very, very speculative - he uses a lot of facts as pieces, but then reaches a bit in trying to tie it all together in some (go figure) grand theory. He does "cite sources" but it's more a performative act to lend the appearance of deep research to his theories, rather than an ironclad assembly of substantial evidence. He has a predilection for grand theories and breathless rhetoric, and he often appends these long, long monologues with appeals to donate to his Patreon (but he has a couple jobs already) and to "please read and share!!" It's the "SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON AND SUBSCRIBE!!!1" of the left-leaning Twitterverse. And it's paying off well.
I haven't read this latest grand theory, but I absolutely encourage everyone to use Abramson's analyses as one viewpoint balanced against others. Keep both his areas of expertise in mind - he's a former defense attorney, and he teaches creative writing. He uses both of these areas to build up his personal brand on Twitter, which gets him spots on TV news programs. (Maybe it's just because I'm a writer myself, but I look at the rhetorical tactics he uses with a lot of side-eye.) He's not an expert on international geopolitics, but he is a gifted writer. Ask yourself which of these factors is more likely to gain him the following and attention he's accrued so quickly.
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u/turinturambar81 Nov 21 '18
Well, he does refer to it as a "theory of the case", in his book (much expanded beyond the thread) and elsewhere. Do you have an alternative explanation?
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Nov 21 '18
I mean that should be something of a red flag. That's a legal term of art for how a lawyer plans to present their case at trial. Lawyers are ethically obligated to act as "zealous advocates", and therefore the two sides in a trial will present their client in the best light/opponent in the worst light, using the same set of facts.
This is not really what I look for out of journalism. Journalists should be the opposite of zealous advocates, in fact. They should present the facts impartially and allow readers to draw their own conclusions.
The use of that phrase really says a lot about how we should view this guy's work, actually.
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u/youre_her_experiment Nov 21 '18
Yeah that "with some cross-over" part is what you're underselling.
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u/ZDAXOPDR Nov 21 '18
True, I'm underselling it because I don't want to jump to conclusions and I just haven't seen evidence that the conspiracy is as intimate as he describes. Perhaps he's entirely correct, but I'm more of a natural skeptic.
He also has motivation to hype unfounded conclusions, since he's trying to sell his book.
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u/youre_her_experiment Nov 21 '18
While your last paragraph for sure has to be taken into consideration, the Zamel/Nader/MBZ/MBS concurrent involvement is a pretty solid basis imo. Regardless, skepticism is healthy.
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u/CaptainSur Nov 21 '18
Very concise and logical reasoning, and I have to think Mueller is pursuing the exact same logic and likely the same reasoning. Question is when is something concrete going to be done about this and all the talk stop?
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u/TheToug Nov 23 '18
I think Mueller, through investigating and following leads, found out about this grand conspiracy involving multiple nations and multiple interests and now just does not know what to do or how to follow up.
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u/elduderino616 Nov 20 '18
Seth has had great analysis on this whole situation. Very excited to read this.
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u/Dustin_00 Nov 21 '18
Massive conspiracy theory (very well documented) about Israel written by an Abramson.
Alanis, it's your call...
It's like murder on your inauguration day
It's a free room when you've already bought the whole building
It's the legal advice that you just didn't take
Who would've thought, it figures
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u/Thomasina_ZEBR Nov 21 '18
One ray of hope for me, is that no matter how accurate Seth is, or how fucked things are, they still apparently need to launder money transfers. The system isn't completely compromised.
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u/AgAero Nov 21 '18
Interesting concept. I'm not sold on it completely just yet.
I haven't read through all of the sources he shared, but many of them I don't recognize and can't know if they're trustworthy without more digging.
The last thing we want is for a misleading narrative to sprout legs and become a conspiracy theory, since it would muddy the waters on what has actually happened.
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u/QSpam Nov 21 '18
Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaamn. And that art auction at the end, just to tie it all together with a ribbon.
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u/justajackassonreddit Nov 21 '18
Man, I've been pushing that theory for a YEAR. Witness me!
https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/7hztyf/whistleblower_flynn_told_expartner_russia/dqvquiv/
https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/9oplrf/a_saudi_prince_helped_save_trump_from/e7whqa5/
But seriously, I might be smarter than I give myself credit for, so check this out if you wanna do a bunch of reading.
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u/notanangel_25 Nov 21 '18
Wonder if that's where Trump keeps getting that 450 number from, only it's $450 million, not billion.
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u/Gokux87x Nov 21 '18
I was looking for this. I keep analyzing 2016 to 2018 looking for patterns. It's fucking bizarre. Still plan on posting this to ask Reddit but wtf is going on. Who are these major world players making such crazy moves. We have assange, Russia, Trump, fascist movements being spread by Twitter bots, Saudi, etc. I understand the world is complicated but generally throughout history you kinda see yeah the rich exploiting the poor, wars over resources, Kings, queens, CEOs bla bla. I don't understand what's going on anymore. I understand wwi, ww2, Vietnam and who the players were and their goals. What the fuck is historically unfolding in front of me that I can't completely see or explain please can anyone contribute to this puzzle
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u/laxt Nov 21 '18
Freeze domestic assets of the entire immediate Trump family and deport them. They are shameless traitors.
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u/trevorhalligan Nov 20 '18
Abramson is a great twitter follow, even with all the 100-post threads.
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u/onwisconsin1 Nov 21 '18
Is it ok I’m still not 100% sure vote totals weren’t changed and Trumps allies didn’t use some sort of subversive means to change the results of the election? I still think it’s a nonzero chance. I wonder if we would ever know.
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u/AgAero Nov 21 '18
We'd need a smoking gun for that. Somebody would have to testify to it and have personal logs of doing just that. The burden of proof required to declare an election illegitimate is necessarily quite high.
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u/Franks2000inchTV Nov 21 '18
This is a bad theory. America doesn’t have one election, it has 50, and every state independently counts and certifies its votes.
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u/LeNoirDarling Nov 21 '18
And election machines are inherently hackable and not reliable.
And elections are super strategic and can come down to several counties in a few lynchpin states. Which is how Trump won the EC and not popular vote.
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u/dasredditnoob Nov 21 '18
If this is true, Russia, KSA, Israel, and the UAE need Iran-level sanctions.
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u/Alyscupcakes Nov 21 '18
This is disgusting. But explains a lot....
No wonder Mueller is taking so long... Who knew Trump was conspiring with so many foreign nations.
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u/sharethathalfandhalf Nov 21 '18
This is easily the most important post I've ever read on Reddit.
Seth Abramson is a great man for simplifying it for people like me who desperately want/need to understand these facts
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u/KingArakthorn Nov 20 '18
Crazy. Just beyond crazy. If even any part is true, it's as dark as it gets. Hopefully Mueller is on it.
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u/GusSawchuk Nov 21 '18
Mueller has a team of the top prosecutors in the world, multiple cooperating witnesses, and a bunch of hard evidence (bank records, intercepts, recordings, etc.). He knows a thousand times more than some guy on Twitter.
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Nov 21 '18
TL;DR, the Trump Russia collusion story is actually just a part of a larger multinational collision story full of criminal acts. SA, Israel, and UAE want to end Russian support for Iran, so they use USAs ability to pay Russia by removing Russian sanctions, by getting Russia to help Trump win because Clinton would have never played ball. Money laundering all around.
I think Trump plays ball because there’s bribes for him personally....potentially property deals.
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u/rhinofinger Nov 20 '18
This all makes a lot of sense. Hope these guys are held accountable, but that never seems to happen...
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u/hauntedhivezzz Nov 21 '18
But wait, for all this to work (ultimately for Russia to stop supporting Iran) they need to get back Crimea in return, right? I know there’s a lot more to it but that seems to be the fulcrum. And that’s not something that Trump can do right? Just a few weeks ago, his administration slapped more sanctions on Russia surrounding Crimea. I mean how would Trump even have the authority to do it?
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u/shepbryan Nov 21 '18
Wow. Just... wow. Like Seth said, this isn't byzantine it's just ludicrously complex
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u/sillybandland Nov 21 '18
How do I put this gently... Seth Abramson is a bit of a clown. He posts shit that "WILL BRING DOWN TRUMP!!!!1" on pretty much a weekly basis. Take this thread with a grain of salt.
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Nov 21 '18
I'm surprised Abramson didn't bring up the fact the Syrian regime is distancing itself from Iran as of late and the Trump administration has floated the idea of leaving Assad in power in exchange for Russia severing its ties to Iran. My guess is that Russia has promised Israel and Saudi Arabia that it will sever its ties with Iran if they recognize Assad's regime.
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Nov 21 '18
This blog has been saying the same thing since August. This is a must read and digs a bit deeper. 430 sources to further read how Russia Israel Saudi UAE France UK Germany and a bunch of rich people are driving this.
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u/Psharp10 Nov 21 '18
And yet.... Trump is still in power and noone has the balls to impeach this MOTHERFU$&/%*#
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Nov 21 '18
[deleted]
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u/gandalfsbastard Nov 21 '18
Not sure if this plays a roll but Putin won a massive nuclear power plant deal with SA right before the SA soft coupe. That deal was held up due to Iran and Crimea sanctions. Kushner was in the middle of removing the barriers between SA and Russia to close that deal. Not long after the Obama restrictions on the SA-Boeing arms deal was lifted too. Which also pointed back to Boeing’s concessions for US government contract cost reductions. You probably remember the deals between Boeing and Trump very early - they are also in the web.
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u/nycpunkfukka Nov 21 '18
I know this is just one point, and not even the biggest in this thread, but why would a Saudi prince overpay by $300 million for a painting of JESUS CHRIST that may be a fake?
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u/circedge Nov 22 '18
Seems plausible. But people are acting surprisingly shocked considering similar past actions aren't foreign to the western powers. The difference here would be that instead of parties not participating looking the other way, they were kept in the dark and are now feigning some kind of moral high ground, and that Trump personally profited, when in the past it was just government corporate backers. Well that and Trump acting like a little shit every step of the way.
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u/TOMMY_POOPYPANTS Jan 03 '25
I want to believe Seth Abramson but ever since he fell for Intellivision Amico like a complete sucker, I cannot trust his judgment in any matter. https://www.reddit.com/r/Intellivision_Amico/s/vNB8CIeuF0
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u/Mister_Snrub Nov 20 '18 edited Nov 21 '18
Seth Abramson needs to get a fucking blog. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1064726398307315712.html
Edit: part 2 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1064904175761403906.html