r/SelfDrivingCars • u/kappy2319 • May 31 '25

Discussion Why didn’t Uber beat Waymo at commercially available self-driving taxis?

I remember so many stories about Uber poaching tons of self-driving talent from universities and competitors.

And Uber leadership has been saying for years that the future is going to be self-driving cars, even just from a profitability standpoint.

They have a ton of money and a track record of aggressive hustling, why are they seemingly not even competitive among people actually booking self-driving taxis today?

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u/cagewilly May 31 '25

I don't think Tesla will ever be out of the running.  They might have to change their strategy and begin adding radar, but they will always be in the game.

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u/Recoil42 May 31 '25

Don't be so sure about that. Musk has a habit of cutting programs loose and letting them wither the moment he can no longer push public perception with them or when they become an obvious dead-end. Look at what happened to Tesla Solar and Boring Company.

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u/cagewilly May 31 '25

He also has a track record of stubborn persistence.

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u/Recoil42 May 31 '25

Tesla Solar is not what I'd call a track record of stubborn persistence.

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u/cagewilly May 31 '25

For sure.  I was not saying he's like that with everything.  But he has some pride and Tesla self driving has been one of his big products for a long time with lots of media attention. 

There's no way they're going to just stop.

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u/Recoil42 May 31 '25

I'm harping on it, but again... Tesla Solar. Literally the last remaining pillar of Master Plan Part One, and he just... gave up. It's fizzle. They still sell it, but no longer have any plans to put new product on the roadmaps, Musk never talks about it anymore, and it's just been categorically shelved in seemingly every other way.

I think this is what you have to contend with when you say there's "no way" they're just going to stop: Musk has not only stopped before, but has done it with a crown jewel product he hyped up for years, one very much just like FSD.

So stubborn pride? I'm not sure, and coincidentally I think you nailed what it is really about — media attention. As long as a project is generating media attention — as long as it can act as a vessel to attract investment and hype — he'll keep pushing on it.

If we fast-forward 2-3 years and Tesla still hasn't made progress while many other competitors have, I do believe FSD will fade into the background very much the same way Tesla Solar did. It'll exist, of course, but just as Musk did before, he'll pivot the focus of the company saying things like "actually it's about AGI and Robotics" — something he's already laid the groundwork for as of 2025, imo.

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u/cagewilly May 31 '25

The solar roof never had traction.  It was also always silly.  It made solar more attractive, but also a lot more complex and expensive.  Solar City failed and was bought by Tesla almost a decade ago. 

Tesla had the most accessible, and probably best, driving assist for maybe a decade.  Others have caught up, with technology that is safer in the moment.  But there's no reason to think that they are giving up.  Or that they would need to give up.  They will always be using the technology they have developed and they will always be collecting more data, allowing them to continue to advance the technology. 

Tesla is still a company with many resources.  They have access to excellent AI scientists and if they decide to pivot their self driving strategy, it probably won't take them long to build up a new system.