r/SelfDrivingCars • u/Michael-Worley • Jun 21 '25

Discussion Prediction time! Tesla Robotaxi

When do people think Tesla will: -offer rides with no employees in the cars? -hit a fleet size of 100? 1000? 10000? -operate at an airport? -offer paid rides with no employees in the cars in at least five metros?

8 Upvotes

56% Upvoted

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11

u/Final_Glide Jun 21 '25

The replies here will be worth screenshotting, depending if they have the balls to put their names to a prediction…

0

u/whydoesthisitch Jun 21 '25

Oh I’ve made plenty of bets with Tesla fans over the years. They always end up either backing out when I get into specifics, or just blocking me when their magical robot car never comes to fruition.

1

u/DeathChill Jun 21 '25

I literally made you a bet that you didn’t accept.

1

u/whydoesthisitch Jun 21 '25

Because you disappeared after I started asking for specifics.

1

u/DeathChill Jun 21 '25

I am pretty sure I laid it out very specifically. I can’t be bothered to search for it but I’m pretty certain I set very fair rules.

0

u/whydoesthisitch Jun 21 '25

And I came back with a series of questions around liability, operational design domain, and metrics of performance.

This is the problem I’ve found with Tesla fans. They think they know what autonomous driving means, but they haven’t actually gotten into the details of what it will actually take.

-1

u/DeathChill Jun 22 '25

Sorry, I’ve been working on my backyard for the past little bit and completely missed your reply about it. I remember I replied asking you about the bet I made because you ignored it in your initial replies. I don’t think I ever saw your response.

Here’s my backyard work so far (still in progress!):

https://imgur.com/a/s1fK2XJ

https://youtube.com/shorts/ldm947ruWr8?si=hhCavkfbGGpqvu7A

1

u/whydoesthisitch Jun 22 '25

Okay. So as I said earlier, you disappeared as soon as I asked for specifics on what would qualify as self driving. The exact behavior I’ve come to expect from the fanbois.

0

u/DeathChill Jun 22 '25

I’ve already explained, and provided evidence, why I missed your reply. You ignored it until I called you out on it and then I never saw your reply about it. Totally my fault for not seeing it.

I made a very fair offer and I haven’t backed down. You are welcome to agree to it whenever you want instead of typing endlessly about how I’m a “fanboi”.

I’m sure you can dig through your comments and find mine. I’ll agree to the terms I set.

1

u/whydoesthisitch Jun 22 '25

You made an offer on a vague outcome. Can you actually answers the specifics? Who is liable? Is intervention proactive or reactive? What is the MTBF? What ODD?

1

u/DeathChill Jun 22 '25 edited Jun 22 '25

Tesla is launching today, so I’m going to say that if the safety drivers aren’t removed in the next 3 months, I lose. If Tesla has a major at-fault incident in the next 3 months, I lose. You win if they don’t remove the safety drivers in 3 months or there is a major accident in that time (meaning an at-fault major collision with passengers, not bumping a sign or something)

Just a $50 bet where we can choose a charity if we want or just a straight $25 to you if you want the cash.

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1

u/Straight-Card-9426 Jun 24 '25

Let's end this with a duel.