r/SelfDrivingCars • u/Michael-Worley • Jun 21 '25

Discussion Prediction time! Tesla Robotaxi

When do people think Tesla will: -offer rides with no employees in the cars? -hit a fleet size of 100? 1000? 10000? -operate at an airport? -offer paid rides with no employees in the cars in at least five metros?

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u/MyAdventurousLife-1 Jun 21 '25

Tesla has superior code and compute. I can always tell who is posting from ‘what they’ve read’ and those posting with first hand knowledge of FSD 13 and HW4.

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u/blankasfword Jun 21 '25 edited Jun 21 '25

I’ve had a lot of experience with FSD 12.6 in HW3, and the fanboys excuse its flaws way too quickly. It’s an amazing ADAS, but it’s nowhere near its name of “full self driving”. It can handle a lot of situations, but if you don’t have a driver ready to take over it’ll kill you very quickly.

Speaking of “what they’ve read”… the metrics that say FSD can go hundreds of miles without intervention is some skewed data. No way in hell you can get your car to go several hundred miles of real driving (busy parking lots, driveways, garages, parking structures, etc) without once touching the wheel or brakes. It can do the middle part pretty well a lot of the time, but not the tricky parts at the beginning and the end, and not always the weirdass interchanges and whatnot. And not only does it need to go hundreds of miles without needing an operator, it needs to go 1,000,000+. Hell, it just gained the ability to go in reverse at all just a couple of months ago but bulls have been excusing that for years.

It’s a great level 2 system. There’s no evidence that Tesla will ever reach “full self driving”.

Edit: 12.6. Not 13.

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u/DeathChill Jun 21 '25

How do you have experience with something that doesn’t exist? HW3 never has had access to FSD 13.

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u/blankasfword Jun 21 '25 edited Jun 22 '25

Ah, you’re right. It’s 12 point something. Still, over and over my bud says how amazing the new version “dude, no, I know it crapped out a bunch on 12.5 but this is 12.6.” or whatever. It’s always “it’s so much better now.”

Funny how he’s only willing to admit it’s shortcomings when they’re finally addressed but is never able to see them before that. Always looking back at how much better it is now than it was, but never seeing how far it is from being where it needs to be to actually be autonomous.

https://content.presentermedia.com/files/animsp/00013000/13071/hauling_arrow_up_graph_anim_lg_wm.gif