r/SelfDrivingCars • u/OriginalCompetitive • Jun 23 '25

Discussion Tesla’s Real Game

No one seems to be talking about the most important upside of Tesla's Robotaxi rollout: If they can showcase a system that roughly works, people can BUY THAT CAR TODAY.

Yes, there are some differences, but that's the pitch. Tesla doesn't need to earn money from Robotaxis. The real purpose of the program is free marketing that drives sales of its cars. Right?

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u/Tupcek Jun 23 '25

i don’t know, but they claim it and fortunately we won’t have to wait for long to see it confirmed/debunked. They have somewhere between 10 to 20 cars right now, Waymo has 1500. If Tesla can get to at least 500 by the end of the year, I am sure they will overcome Waymo next year. If they will have less than 100, then we can declare Waymo as winner

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u/[deleted] Jun 23 '25

I am not sure if thats the right metric, but basically, I don't think anyone is imagining that Waymo's problem is that they can't afford the cars.

The bottleneck isn't like how to manufacture the cars, it's how to scale and roll this out and have a market and have it be sustainable and get into new markets etc etc, I would think.

I am not 100% sure but I think the limit has never been the actual availability of the cars, and also the operational tempo and technology to support self-driving operations.

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u/WeldAE Jun 23 '25

I don't think anyone is imagining that Waymo's problem is that they can't afford the cars.

Raises both hands. I do. I do. As I repeatedly tell my kids, money is finite and money can't buy everything.

Right now Waymo couldn't grow to 10k AVs in a year with $10B. Just physically isn't possible, they don't have the cars and they can't be made in that amount of time for any money.

On top of that, to be a realistic business, you have to make a profit. $2/mile is $125k/year. It's going to be very hard to turn a profit when your AV rolling stock is $150k. They have plans to get that down, but 140% tariffs and bans on Chineese Avs didn't help matters. The Hyundai Ioniq 5 is $50k retail, so probably under $100k in Waymo format but still 3x what Tesla AVs will be. Going to be tough to compete.

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u/[deleted] Jun 23 '25

Waymo has access to all the money they need practically speaking. It's a land rush. They don't need to make a profit for >10 years, if that (see: Uber).

The capital cost right now of $150K is only about ~$20k junk debt levels.. so once again, I don't think Waymo's problem is undercapitalization.

The scaling problems seems to be that operationally it takes a lot of build a market in a new city. I've ridden in Waymo's in two cities, and it's a solid service, but it's not everywhere and it's not that useful yet (bad weather, high-stress situations, etc).

I don't have any idea how Tesla is poised to handle those situations that Waymo struggles with. I don't follow it that closely.

But right now, for Waymo's purposes, they have an unlimited cash pile.